Crisis convergence

As I wrote in previous entries, June and July are critical months for the Filipino people. One, food prices are expected to rise further, due to food and oil price speculations in both the global and local markets. Two, despite the expected decrease in electricity rates, water rates are sure to rise due to the falling peso ranged against the green buck. Three, these months are campaign periods for the ARMM elections. With the number of candidates for the ARMM gubernatorial posts and the resumption of armed hostilities against the ASG and criminal elements in Sulu, things could turn really ugly. Lastly, Congress will re-open the ZTE probe and other controversies which definitely would again heat up the political scene.

What is more challenging is the way the local economy has been "fucked up", as described by Economic adviser and Governor Joey Salceda. Recently, in a news report, he bewailed the rising numbers of poor people, estimated to be around 4 million to date, which could be extremely difficult to manage. Cash subsidies could provide some relief but this cannot ultimately solve the crisis. And despite early opposition to government's plan to subsidize some food costs, this could be a feasible solution, given that the real issue behind all of these is the decreasing purchasing power of Filipinos.

Malacanang should pursue Salceda's Noah's Ark plan to at least address the rising economic concerns of the poor. Eliminating VAT is not the answer, since big firms and wealthy individuals are also expected to gain from this instead of the poor. There should be a mechanism to give back VAT to those critical sectors of the economy. Short of subsidies, government should strictly enforce socialized services within a period of six months at the least, to enable poor families to at least weather the socio-economic storm.

Likewise, Malacanan should suspend the ARMM elections to save money and prevent a possible escalation of hostilities in Mindanao. I am glad that Gloria decided to resume peace negotiations with the MILF with some solutions on the thorny issue of ancestral domain. That is the way to go.

By the way, I'm extremely glad that the US will build a US$ 3 million port in Sulu. Kenney is right. That will surely provide enough jobs for the Tausugs there and deter them from doing criminal and stupid things like kidnappings.

Tipping Point

Governor Joey Salceda, Gloria's fair haired Boy (?) responsible for keeping the economy afloat, says that we're still lucky. Only 4.3 million families are affected by the worsening economic crisis. However, he told us that the worst is yet to come. The full-blown effects of the global economic recession has'nt been fully felt yet. If government fails to act immediately, he said, the entire nation could face a catastrophe worst than the Chinese quake.

We actually are facing three big problems: one, rising food costs. Two, rising unemployment. And three, rising oil prices. These things are interlinked, in the sense that oil prices dictate inflation. A rise in inflation means some businesses closing, resulting to unemployment.

We are in a very precarious situation. We are surviving in the barest of threads. Consider that people are suffering now when we have'nt felt the full-blown effects of the US sub-prime crisis. I shudder to think of what will happen to us if we're hit by a strong earthquake or a typhoon. What if a natural disaster destroy our critical infrastructures? Will we be able to rise above it?

And how about a war in the South? Can we afford such an event from happening?

As I've said in previous entries, this country faces the most challenging situation in its history. This government could fall under the weight of this economic crisis. It would not be very long before we see the entire superstructure self-destructs.

What's the solution to all these things? Do we need a change in government now? Or do we stick with this government while we weather this man-made calamities?

There are no hard and fast rules to this.

What's clear is this---things would get worse before it gets better. That's the natural cycle of things. Question remains--is government strong enough to survive the worse effects of these multiple crises?

Cha-cha train pushes through the dark night

Amidst controversy over the ZTE graft probe, Malacanang, as predicted, pushed through with the charter change train. Former Presidential Chief of Staff Joey Salceda led the charge Tuesday despite some protestations on the timing of the campaign. So, the cha-cha train pushed through the dark night.

This confirms my earlier writings that this entire shembang--the neutralization of Lakas, the ouster of JDV, the election of Nograles, the incarceration of opponents and the apparent coolness of the palace in the ZTE drama--are components of the palace plan for charter change. Ramos has just said last year that cha-cha is too late in the game because any change initiative now would be misinterpreted by the people as a veiled attempt at power perpetuation. Groups, particularly the Opposition, have said time and again that they would oppose cha-cha done at this time.

What all these indicate?

The palace is drunk with power. Because of the inability of people's organizations and the middle class to rise against it, it has been transformed into a whole gigantic mafia organization that has the capability of destroying everything that would try to block its way. It is now flexing its muscles, like a great fire-mouthing dragon, ready to engulf its enemies. This cha-cha campaign shows how resilient and determined this administration is in its attempts at prolonging the term of Arroyo beyond 2010.

This is war.

Groups said that the reason why they are not all out in opposing Arroyo is that it is averting civil war. Well, their silence or their somewhat "critical collaboration" stance has now embolden Arroyo and her cohorts so much so that Arroyo thinks that she is invincible. Groups should now rise over partisan interests and if they are really dead serious in their opposition to cha-cha now, they should coalesce and form a strong front to fight Arroyo.