North-South Korean War: Are we ready for war?

Are we ready for war?


Tensions are beginning to rise in the Korean peninsula, and this is starting to get really serious. The government says it has allotted 25 million as a contingency fund, in case the issue escalates into war. A US warship has been sent by Obama near the Korean peninsula, ready to assist the South Koreans in a full-scale engagement. 


Actually, it is not right to say that a new war might erupt between the two Koreas. Since the 60's, the North has been at war with the South. If one of them fires back, says the South fires a missile at the North, then, this would surely lead to a full-scale attack, a battle if you will that will shake the entire region.


Why so? Because behind this North-South issue lies the issue of regional leadership. Who between China and the United States will successfully end the hostilities? Or, will the two economic giants favor a full-scale war instead of peace?


The North is being backed by China, an emerging global giant, with numerous interests in Asia. The United States, meanwhile, is trying to re-assume leadership in the region. 


A full-scale war will benefit both China and the United States. For the US, it will again re-ignite its war industries, which have been in the doldrums since the last continuing engagement with the insurgents in the Middle East and two, a war will surely re-establish the U.S. dominance in regional affairs.


War feeds the huge US capitalist system. War will again necessitate the production of arms and war materiel, which translates to additional jobs, acquisition of resources and the like. This will be good for the US economy which continues to lag behind other economies in the world. 


This will also be an occasion for China to display its war arsenal before the world. China will definitely be the supplier of arms to the North, thereby, further strengthening the ties of the two Communist states. 


Both countries would definitely use this "tension" for their own interests. For China, this will be used as an occasion to establish or further strengthen its dominance throughout the region. For the US, this will allow itself to re-establish both its economic and military might in Asia.


A tension in the North would definitely impact on the behavior of markets throughout the world. There would probably be more profiteers in this one than the last engagement in the MIddle East.


The most concern is--will this spark a new escalation of conflicts throughout the rest of the world? A war in the Korean peninsula would surely break the tenuous peace in other flashpoints. 


Terrorists could use this to increase their guerilla war in several fronts. This may open the US or Europe to terrorist attacks since the global cop is busy trying to contain the North Koreans.


The only concern that I am articulating here is the effects of such a war in the Philippines. Are we ready for a 21st century war?


A 21st century war is different from the 1960 engagement which the Philippines took part of. The Philippines is a strong ally of the United States, yet we are also beginning to re-imagine our relationship with China. In case of a war in the Korean peninsula, will we have an active role in supporting the South? The AFP already said it is ready to deploy troops in case the South requests it. 


This worries me. It is not wise for the Philippines to take part in this war for two (2) reasons: one, the Philippines does not have enough money to support a deployment of troops and two, we are just beginning to re-establish ourselves as a regional player and this might spoil it. 


Another worrisome aspect of this one is the purported military exercise scheduled by the US and South Korea. US troops have been sent here ready to join the exercise at the Yellow sea. The US still maintains troops in our territory under the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). 


Admiral Mike Mullen, chair of the Joint Chiefs, said that the exercise has been scheduled prior to the "tensions", yet admitted that the exercise meant a "very strong signal of deterrence and aimed at strengthening ties with South Korean allies".


The North has warned the US not to intervene in the current dispute and will fire more artillery and missiles against the South if provoked. The question really is---will this involve an attack against US forces stationed in Mindanao and other parts of the Philippines? If this tension escalates, then, the possibility is there.


The question is---are we so ready for war?

North Korea wants of more attacks

North Korea, a Stalinist state modified, warned the United States and South Korea of possible escalation of the ongoing strikes if the South continues on its "attacks" against its territory.


North Korea has engaged the South in a barrage of missile attacks which already killed at least 3 soldiers and wounded several others. In response, the US sent its nuclear warship ready to defend the South if the conflict escalates.


More than 50,000 Filipinos have been warned already by our consulate in South Korea. 


Analysts say the reason why North Korea has upped the ante is simple---the 26-year old successor for the North's undisputed leader, wants some military accomplishments. The North's leader is said to be sick and ready to hand over the State's powers to his son.


Some analysts have pooh-poohed this latest strike from the North, saying that the Stalinist state is just muscle flexing. However, these strikes may have dire consequences in the near future.


The United States is just looking for a way to distract its citizens from the worsening economic situation and the rising discontent coming from the jobless. JOblessness has hit an all-time high and Barack Obama has no other solution to the deteriorating situation.


This may be the event Obama is waiting for, to show his strength and might as a Leader. Since his assumption as President, Obama has slowly lost the trust and confidence of his people. He has failed to even uplift the economic plight of the Americans and this incident could provide him with a convenient escape route. 


However, this issue also shows the weakness of the Obama leadership in terms of diplomacy. The United States is expected to show leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. The Obama-led administration has repeatedly failed to re-establish leadership and dominance in Asia, mainly due to its poor economic performance since 2009. 


If Obama fails to exploit this, it would be China who will greatly benefit from this. China is a strong ally of the North, and it is now in the best position to counsel its ally to cease or stop its attacks against the South. If China succeeds in pacifying the North and regain the status quo, it would now establish itself as the undisputed leader not just in East Asia, but in the entire Asia-Pacific region.

US Bases in Mindanao?

A confidential document tells of US apprehension over tensions at the Korean peninsula. US President Barack Obama's official policy regarding North Korea is what analysts call "engagement policy". Three years back, writing for Foreign Policy, Obama termed his view on how America should conduct itself with the North, he wrote that US policy must be a "sustained, direct and aggressive diplomacy." Now, some analysts say, this might change after the North tested another nuclear missile (underground test) last May. But, shortly after the June 15 meeting, it seems that Obama has not changed tack. And Forbes magazine seems to fear that Obama is just another Carter when it comes to foreign policy.

What analysts probably misread about Obama's action is his tendency to use every available diplomatic tactic first before he deploys armed forces. That is what he did in Afghanistan. More than this though, Obama seems to be totally agreeable on strengthening US military might first before implementing any military action against the North.

Now, before anti-nukes activist balk, let me just say that the US needs a military base only as refuelling, landing and ammo dump---nothing more. In a sustained fight with the North, the US needs closer areas where they can immediately refuel and possibly, arm their subs and carriers and fighters.

With this in mind, the possibility of further strengthening US military facilities inside the AFP Western Mindanao military base in Zamboanga is, I think, a top Obama concern. US forces need strategically placed launching pads to strengthen the US Pacific fleet. And Mindanao seems a very good place to actually have one, since their Diego Garcia base (which serves as their present refueling station), is a good hundreds of miles away.

IN an event of an armed engagement with the North, that would probably happen in the South China sea, in the air and eventually, some nuclear strikes. Now, what is dangerous is the high possibility of Mindanao as one of the North's target should that happen. Probably, that's why Mrs. Arroyo visited South Korea?

Are we expecting also a possible re-activation of the Subic and Clark military bases and a possible installation of another one in Ilocos and Cagayan? And is this the topic of interest between the two leaders come July 30? Will Obama request such accommodations from the Philippine government? And what would be the concessions? Would Obama sacrifice democracy and stability in the Philippines in exchange for the return (of the comeback) of the US bases?

Global Tensions Rising

The United States military has deployed a regular army unit inside the US mainland to deal with local insurgencies and possible civil unrest. This is the first time that the US government did this. The US State Department has considered contingency measures in the event of a possible outbreak of violence due to the worsening economic crisis.

Over at the US Congress, US Treasury Chief Paulson reportedly pleaded with Democratic congressmen not to reveal the close door theatrics displayed by politicians and financial experts discussing the $700 billion bailout proposal. Republicans are up in arms over the proposal, saying that it's still a raw deal, which could not possibly end the increasing financial tensions. US President George Bush has said that the US is in for a long and painful recession, should Congress fail to pass the proposal. At this time though, things over at Washington seem to have turned from bad to worst, with politicians and officials fighting against each other. 

While the US tries to put out its financial fires, the Russian military has sent its fleet to South America, obviously as part of its global strategic military plan. In Iran, the tiny nuclear Islamic Republic is reportedly preparing for war, possibly against the United States and its allies. Analysts say, conflicts could possibly escalate after Ramadhan. Meanwhile, North Korea has banished nuclear inspectors and indicated a possible revival of its atomic energy programme.

Obviously, the enemies of the US are starting to flex their muscles. This financial crisis is more than a sneeze--its a serious illness which the world's superpower could find hard to cure. While the strong man remains bedridden with financial woes, enemies are now in the midst of preparing themselves for possible confrontations since historically, the US resorts to its war machines when faced with extreme economic difficulties. War provides the needed push for its industries and the US could do the same thing given the seriousness of the crisis.