Surveys & PR: Waiving the Magic Wand

Surveys as traditional tools for political campaigns have been around since the Cory Aquino administration. SWS surveys came to light after a series of surveys show someone leading prior to the elections and the founder claimed to have "predicted" that person's victory. SWS came into the forefront of things when it "accurately" predicted the poll victory of Joseph Estrada (this is still disputable). It did not, however, foretold of his early ouster.

When numerous questions against surveys cropped up, especially against the "integrity" of these SWS surveys, many of which were "commissioned", up came Pulse Asia of my former professor Felipe Miranda. Pepe Miranda is one of the country's leading political analysts. He is a political science professor of the University of the Philippines-Diliman. He partnered with other political heavyweights and created the survey research group.

So now, people know of just two survey groups---Pulse and SWS. In recent months, their surveys show the same ratings, except for Villar, Aquino and Estrada, they show that Gordon gets a consistent 1% "approval" or " trust" ratings and his partner, Bayani Fernando is a consistent " number 1", meaning 1%.

Gibo's ratings were worst than these two former administration allies---negative 0.80%. Then, it slowly turned to about 1-2% in recent Pulse and SWS surveys. Now, another outfit, called "The Center" reportedly got results indicating that Gibo's ratings are now double digits. And that is, shortly after that Harapan debates over at ANC. Wow.

Two things---when PR guys drop their pants and use the pure discipline of marketing research to back up their rah-rah sisboomba campaigns for their clients, surveys tend to magically turn into a wand. Yes, a wand, a very dangerous one.

When PR guys create survey groups, and these survey groups magically churn up data to support whoever commissioned them for PR work, not research, they waive the survey like a wand and presto! Their clients immediately turn from "dismal" to "winnable".

And when surveys are used and manipulated for unjust ends, research gets a very bad reputation. Instead of being in the service of the electorate, research and surveys are now being transformed into PR tools.

I do not dispute however, that Noynoy's ratings are "slowing down" and "going south" (if that what "stationary dive" means) since that essentially is the law of the universe--everything "heavy" must come down. Statistics always follow a historical trend, since it depends much on previous actions and preferences.

Yet, prematurely announcing it seemed more of PR rather than a credible survey. That it was announced in an untimely manner shows that the survey was a manipulated one and not credible at all. How in the world can you process 1,200 respondents in one week, granting that indeed, you pooled these respondents together and processed their responses? That's possible if you just have one question. But, how can the "Center" came up with assumptions that are more qualitative than quantitative. It does not make any sense.

It makes sense though if PR firms or guys involved in Public Relations wave the magic wand.

Pinoy Scandal: The Survey Scam

Many people are questioning the integrity of the Social Weather Station's 3rd quarter 2009 survey results, which shows Noynoy Aquino getting 60% of the respondents' nod. That 60% "claim" came from the results of a very strange questionnaire---a questionnaire that begs respondents to give the survey firm THREE (3) NAMES whom they think are worthy to succeed Mrs. Arroyo as president in 2010.

SWS of Mahar Mangahas failed to show us their survey methodology, and the rationale behind the survey, thereby fuelling suspicions that these survey firms are "bogus" and " devoid of any credibility".

Clearly, these survey firms are being used by political parties for conditioning the minds of people that their bets have the chance to win. In fact, these survey results are used to shore up campaign funds.

Now, I would like to ask Dr. Mangahas---where is your academic neutrality? Mr. Mangahas serves as one of the directors of one of Senator Manny Villar's companies.

Likewise, I am also asking, even questioning the integrity of Pulse Asia, who is now being controlled by its president, Rapa Lopa, a relative of presidential contender Noynoy Aquino.

Pulse Asia, sana ang mayroong kaunting kredibilidad but my good professor, Prof. Felipe Miranda already left the firm he founded for "unknown reasons".

Miranda is a very credible polster. He is also one of those with the highest academic integrity. 

IN this light, may I ask my colleagues from the University of the Philippines in Diliman, my professors in political science and of the Statistics department, let us form an independent polling firm, a company that would really conduct a very credible survey. With my years of experience in market research, doing it for multinational companies in Singapore (including banks), I am in the best position right now to do these researches alongside with my colleagues in UP.

Suspicious Timing of Survey Releases

Pulse Asia released its latest survey that shows Senator Manny Villar at the top of the heap. Villar got top spot despite being criticized for getting billions out of a government road project.

Today, the Senate ethics trial continued, with Senator Jamby Madrigal exposing how Villar used his position as legislator to jack up real property prices of his land in Sauyo Las Pinas. Villar, according to Madrigal, sold land at 13,500 pesos per square meter, when property prices were just at 1,300 per square meter around the area. Madrigal postulated that government agencies could have colluded with Villar to make those properties far higher in prices than current market prices.

What is most suspicious, however, is the timing of the release of these survey results. For example, Pulse Asia released the results the same day the Senate hears Villar's ethics case. This is most suspicious, to say the least.

Was there a conscious rider to Pulse Asia and SWS to release their results on the same week as these hearings? Twice this happened already and it seems that these survey agencies are creating the impression that Villar's image is like teflon--indestructible despite successive potshots and negative criticisms.

Pulse Asia and SWS should answer this. Are they providing fodder for Villar's defense? Is there a conscious effort to use these surveys to neutralize the negative effects of the Senate ethics trial.