Incendiary situation on Friday

Three elements--oxygen, wood (or any flamable material) and spark--constitutes fire. This coming Friday is very critical and incendiary to say the least for this administration due to the confluence of three events:

1. The Supreme Court will issue its decision on the Hello Garci tapes controversy, again, reviving the issue. This is the oxygen.
2. People's opposition to charter-change which has been revived by palace factotums in a veiled attempt at perpetuating Arroyo to power beyond 2010. This is the flammable material
3. Lozada's appearance at the NAIA with the Senate as part of the continuing drama related to the ZTE probe. This could provide the spark needed to ignite change.

The Opposition said they will be massing up people to demand for the resignation of Arroyo. Arroyo, on Friday, will be at the Makati Shangri-la for a talk. I believe that the opposition knows that the Supreme Court will issue a decision which nullifies or puts to rest, the Hello Garci tapes issue by saying that the evidence does not prove the complicity of the president in the proven 2004 elections cheating. That the call was made not to influence the elections nor proves that Arroyo was in cahoots with election operator Garcillano in rigging the elections. Obviously, the SC already has a resolution and with them entering into a vote yesterday, the decision will definitely be issued on Friday.

As I wrote in the previous blog, these events will confluent this coming Friday. The only question that remains--will groups have the numbers to show this administration and the world that it has a formidable force to use against Arroyo.

If the Opposition and groups critical of this administration fail to mass up the numbers come Friday, it would further embolden Mrs. Arroyo and her mafia and provide her a sign that (a) her administration is not crumbling as being predicted and (b) that she should push through with her dastardly plan of changing the constitution to perpetuate herself in power.

Campaigns for her ouster would formally start on Friday and would probably last up to the week prior to the Lakas directorate meetings. The last few weeks of February could be very critical for the history of this country, for two things:

1. Any false move by groups critical of Arroyo could spell the end of any efforts at her ouster.
2. Any sign of violence could be used by Arroyo in declaring martial rule which, could be used as her armour against attacks from opposing groups.

If at all, violence is to be used by these critical groups, it should be managed and should be part of a whole plan ushering in the entry of patriotic elements of the military. Without this component, any moves by civil society would be rendered useless and inutile.

And if at all these groups are dead serious in their desire for change, they should involve other traditional groups like political parties to provide some muscle to all these efforts. Now is the time for them to unite against Arroyo. Now is the time to pour everything out. Not doing so would spell complete disaster and could allow Arroyo to stay in power beyond 2010.