Why Philippine politics suck

When the Greeks invented politics, it was for the greater good. The intention is simple--politics create a web of relationships inspite of being interlocked with individual personal interests. Meaning, it is politics that define what is the collective solution to a community problem.

What is happening to the Philippines is that politics is not used to determine the collective interest. It is used to perpetuate patron-client relationships or to be extra frank about it, subservience.

Admit it, we who are left to live in this country are all slaves of oligarchic families who own most resources of this country. Why are they in power? Because they use the laws to keep their power and influence intact. The law is supposed to pursue collective national interest. What it now does is legally cloak certain oligarchic families with political legitimacy to rule us, hapless slavish consumers.

Of course, we cannot change the complexion of politics. As they say, national politics is just a macrocosm of true politics, which is local and family-oriented. We are being managed by families. These families have economic or business interests. When we allow families to rule us politically, we cloak them with power to advance their own business interests.

Ask around, and you"ll find that all those who rule us have business interests. They don't divest their business interests the minute they assume power. No. Fact is, the very reason why they enter politics in the first place is for them to use it for networking purposes. The more people you know here, the more influential you become, ergo, the wealthier you are.

We must change the mindset of the next generation of oligarchic families by involving them in honest service for the people.

Villar is self-destructing and Joker should blame his boos, err, boss.

Okey, let's reason among ourselves.

One commenter by the name of "Joker" says that Villar is being victimized by black propaganda. Instead of telling Joker that he must be joking, let us really analyze why Villar is sliding and enjoying very negative feedback.

Okey---supporters of Villar say that he is being hit left and right by negative propaganda. Joker even said that people should know the "truth" about Villar. Okey, so what is the truth about him?

On the first barrage of negative news about Villar, his political rivals say he's really not a member of the poorest of the poor in the country, in effect, his rivals say he lied.

Where did all these news about Villar's "proletarian roots" came from? Did it came from the rivals of Villar? No. It came from Villar's own ads and press releases. Villar and his camp were the ones who instigated the debate or discussion about his humble roots.

Villar was the one who claimed he came from the poor. Villar was the one who tried to say that he was once dirt poor when his very personal record speaks otherwise.

It is the responsibility of the public especially the media to know the truth. Is it "black propaganda" when GMA Channel 7 c/o of Howie Severino researched about Villar's "Humble roots"? Is it black propaganda when ABS-CBN c/o of Ces Drilon reported about Villar's real economic status prior to being the country's real estate magnate? No. It was the responsibility of the Philippine media to tell the people that hey this candidate is lying.

Villar is to be blamed for this mess simply because he was the one who instigated the debate about his real beginnings. He should have claimed that he was a member of the middle class who successfully struggled and eventually became rich. Was that wrong? Nope. It was a very glaring error by Villar's strategists to even claim Villar's poor roots when it was clear that he came from a not-so-humble roots.

On the second barrage of negative news about the Nacionalista standard bearer, Villar claims he did nothing wrong with the C-5 scandal, when the very Senate reported otherwise. The Senate probed Villar's hand in the project and those lengthy Senate ethics committee transcripts detailed his involvement.

Villar was unable to disprove it precisely because it involves two of his companies. Because he failed to publicly divest his interests in these companies, surely, his political rivals will hit him with conflicts of interests.

On the third barrage of negative news about Villar, his conduct as a real estate magnate. His companies faked land titles to grab lands reportedly owned by an indigenous group in Norzagaray Bulacan.

There's a new report by Ces Drilon on Villar's involvement in the 30 billion low cost housing scam and there's numerous reports about Villar's seedy hand dipping his fingers on numerous land grabbing incidents. These are not inventions. These are real facts. Is it black propaganda? No, because there were numerous documents proving all these things.

Net---the presidency is slipping away from Villar simply because of the inexperience of his media handlers.

Villar, really, should have won the game easily. Amado Doronilla is correct---Villar has the tendency to self-destruct. Had Villar been handled more effectively, I am quite sure that Villar is far away from his nearest rival, Aquino.

What would have been the case if Villar simply claimed sipag at tyaga as his foremost "agimat" against kahirapan? Would it hurt Villar if he claimed to have been a member of the middle class who rose from his status and became rich?

Villar should have publicly divested all his interests in all his companies before he even started his campaign. That way, he would have prevented his enemies from attacking him.

Net, Joker, blame your boss and if you're one of his media handlers, blame yourself, not people like me who just analyze what is happening in Philippine politics.

Blame Villar for claiming that he's dirt poor when he was not.

Blame Villar for not divesting all his interests in Camella Homes, Vistaland and other real estate companies which he owe?

Blame Villar for messing up the country's low-cost housing program.

Blame Villar for being soo cocky and soo confident that he'll clinch the presidency by using his billions. The Filipino People, Mr. Villar, is not for sale.

49% of Pinoys favor Noynoy Aquino for President, a cause of concern?

If elections are held today, 49% of Filipinos would definitely elect Senator Noynoy Aquino as president. For Noynoy's supporters, that's proof positive that they have a winnable candidate. But, that is not really the thing that they need to find out. That's a wrong question. Noynoy is a winnable candidate.

But, is a 49% ratings a cause of joy? For me, this is most worrisome, even a major cause of concern especially since actual elections are still eight more months to go.

A survey commissioned by a very prominent business group was held just recently and based on those results, almost half of the Filipino electorate favors Noynoy Aquino over other candidates.

In fact, Noynoy’s ratings are more than half a tad higher than what Senator Manny Villar got (16%), or former president Joseph Estrada’s ratings (14%) and Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero’s (12%). All other candidates got lower ratings.

For Noynoy’s supporters, this high ratings affirm earlier gut feelings that there is still a “Cory Magic”. That people are still highly convinced that Noynoy deserves to be elected president than all the rest of the candidates.

However, there’s a downside to this.

Remember that there is still eight more months to go before D-Day. A 49% ratings is not insurmountable. In fact, it is more dangerous for Noynoy to get a very high ratings like this, at the first try. Why?

There are many imponderables in politics and many things could happen that could affect Noynoy’s ratings.

What this high ratings just mean is there really is a “groundswell” of support behind a Noynoy candidacy. And half of the electorate constitutes that groundswell.

That there is a Noynoy constituency is a given. The question really is—is this very high ratings sustainable?

Electoral history shows a downside. When a candidate gets a very high ratings in the first try, he needs to work doubly hard than other candidates to sustain this trust rating. He needs more logistics support, more personnel out in the field to organize those amorphous supportive masses, and more propaganda than his nearest rival.

The bottomline is more work needs to be done. Noypi needs all the support it can get from civil society groups, grassroots organizations, people's organizations, traditional party machineries and public personalities. To sustain a 49% rating, you need to call in all your troops and try to mobilize them and pray that they don't get tired while waiting for D-day. Get what I mean?

For me, better if Noynoy got a “decent ratings” of about 20 or even a 30% rather than a 49% because a 49% is very hard to sustain over a course of ten more months.

A 49% probably reflects a peak, not a trough. Better if Noynoy’s ratings slowly increase over time, instead of it decrease from a high 49% ratings. A decrease could be used as a propaganda tool against Noynoy Aquino. His rivals would just say that this 49% ratings reflect an emotional knee-jerk reaction from the highly publicized Cory funeral spectacle.

This is the same thing that happened to Mar Roxas, Chiz Escudero or even Noli de Castro, that is most worrisome.

There is a solution to this though.

If the Opposition unites, and Erap agrees to lend his support behind Noynoy and the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) does the same, then, that’s it for other candidates. Those support groups would greatly help sustain a majority vote for Noynoy and carry him throughout the electoral fight.

This will send a very strong message from the people that Noynoy’s support is no fluke and represents a real cry of the people for massive change.

Analysis of the Phil. Situation: The Religious Groups

As I write this, there are now more than 70 people's organisations who already intimated their desire to participate in the December 12 interfaith rally. Rally organisers are expecting more groups and more people to join. As it stands, Manila Archbishop Cardinal Rosales has issued a statement in support of the rally. El Shaddai leader Mike Velarde already threw his hat into the derby, so does Jesus Is Lord Movement leader Ed Villanueva. Wagging tongues say, Velarde was urged by the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP). The question is--will the big Iglesia Ni Cristo group take active part as well? It's significant since the INC enjoys a wider constituency than El Shaddai and the Church is known for really delivering warm bodies (reminiscent of what they did in EDSA 1 and EDSA 2). As of the moment, there are some influential political leaders who are talking with some high INC officials. We still don't know if these talks will prosper.

I hate to say it but, I'll say it anyway--I shudder at the thought of a "spy" within the ranks of the anti-charter change and anti-Arroyo movement subverting this interfaith rally. I don't want to cast aspersions to the intentions of some of the religious groups, but, there is a possibility that one of them would, at the last minute, betray this. What would prevent, say El Shaddai leader Mike Velarde calling his flock not to attend the rally anymore since he and some Malacanang officials already made a "deal"? Remember that Presidential Political Adviser Gabby Claudio and Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita suggested a "clarificatory" meeting with Velarde anytime soon. The possibility of a Velarde/El Shaddai pullout is big. Think of this scenario:

This administration is known to subvert any big gathering such as this one. Everyone knows at the palace that if they fail to manage this huge anti-Gloria rally, this is bound to lead to something big, similar to the one in Thailand.

But, first things first---rally organisers should be able to gather as many people as possible to make this happen. To do just that, people should be psychologically prep up to go there. For people to go, they must think that this rally would lead to something wonderful afterwards. Meaning, it should be backed by the strongest and the most credible political and religious personalities. That's the psychology of the Filipino--he sides with whoever is the stronger force.

As of now, people think that this rally is REALLY big, because the political and religious personages are coming--former President Joseph Estrada, Velarde, Villanueva, Rosales, former government officials etc. Now, what if Malacanang maneuvers to destroy this formidable group? What if they enter into a compromise, say with the Catholic Church on the issue of Reproductive Health bill and Arroyo dangles her veto powers? Will we see Rosales (who has a niece inside the Palace) and Velarde (a brother, Mel, manages a government agency and you know the other interests) taking a back slide and instead of encouraging their people to go, they let them counter it instead? Again, I'm not casting aspersions against these people, but hey, this is politics. And in politics, anything can happen.

Backsliding has happened in the past. Velarde has backslided so many times already that I don't remember these incidences anymore. Remember, more than a religious preacher, Velarde is a savvy political operator. He's a survivor of many administrations. I just hope that Velarde knows where he really stands and has the balls to really take his commitments on this seriously. Otherwise, if Velarde will just use this as a negotiating tool, then, rally organisers should prepare for a Plan B to counter a possible backsliding.

Now, who actually controls Velarde and Rosales? Are they their own man? Velarde, as you know, is a consummate businessman. While, Rosales (who is sickly) is not someone with a solid political belief. This is the thing. More influential leaders, say Ramos, JDV and Estrada should exert their influence over these two leaders and assure them that something is really going to happen that would change the political landscape and affect the very political futures of the present status quo.

IN the case of the INC, there should be a wide

Shattering GMA's Myth of Invincibility

I had a pleasant conversation with Baby Yoda and one of the questions he asked is, where's the middle class? Where's the Filipino People? Where are they and what's their take on things? I saw how pained his face was. I noticed the strain in his voice. After more than a year of struggle against the evil forces of Gloria, he's now suddenly becoming pragmatic, even frustrated at how things are shaping up.

But, I tell you my friend, there is a bigger chance for change now than before! Slowly, forces are converging into one logical and rational agenda--the need to revitalize and resuscitate the ailing people's movement against Gloria.

Yes, baby Yoda, your sacrifice is not in vain. Everyday, people are slowly moving towards organizing themselves and thinking of ways on how to change society. And this, my friend, is the result of your struggle.

The forces anathema to change are cowering now in fear. They are clueless. The environment is so silent that the silence is quite deafening!

Arroyo's fears are beginning to grow that she even ordered her charter change lieutenants and generals to go slow and abandon some of the costly initiatives they're doing because this might lead to the realization of Mar Roxas' warning. And that warning is not hollow. It's a warning to those who will still trample democracy to re-think what they're doing and stop all these stupid things.

The end for all grafters is at hand! The end of this evil regime is taking concrete shape! People who are too afraid before have now regained their confidence in themselves. The need for change is upon us! We must seize it by the horns and create history!

Yes, victory for the Filipino People is at arm's length!

Gloria's invincibility is just a myth! When weak, appear strong. When strong, appear weak. People are thinking that Gloria cannot be cut down. People believe that the forces against change are strong and those change agents are weak.

But, I tell you my friends, hope is just day's away! Hope that someday we see a brighter future for our kids. Hope that the Cause of Our Misery will be meted the punishment she deserves!

We must rejoice because the forces of Gloria are doing everything in their power to coerce and lure with money all Congressmen to kill the impeachment.

Rejoice! For the death of the impeachment will bring about real change in this country.

Rejoice! Because these forces of evil are clueless and running like headless chickens, oblivious of the growing movement for their demise. You who think lowly of the Filipino, be forewarned! Your days are numbered!

Time Play

A recent SWS survey says that Filipino memory only last for 2.5 days. Meaning, if there is any controversy, Filipinos only take a serious and close look at it for nearly 3 days. The survey however, does not state what happens after 2.5 to 3 days. It just says how long short term memory lasts for Filipinos.

That's why it is most crucial for those who want to resolve this Lozada episode to act expeditiously before anything bad happens. For the administration, for this thing to come to a stop, it must be transparent and feed to the lions so to speak, the main characters of this issue. The recent decision to make FG attend the Ombusman hearings does not help. Neither is the apparent pressure for Neri not to attend the Senate hearings. If this administration wants to nip this thing in the bud, it must act now. This is not, anymore, a media play. It has taken a life of its own, independent of what the media is saying.

For the pro-Lozada camp, it must act now to generate more steam so to speak, to be able to sustain the momentum that the Lozada testimony has created. Time, unfortunately, is not on the side of the anti-Arroyo camp, mainly because the nature of these things need speed and timing.

Sources say both camps are in the thick of negotiations. There are suggestions of an Arroyo graceful exit, with Vice President Noli de Castro assuming as president while a snap elections is being prepared. This is acceptable to anti-Arroyo groups, since De Castro has a high acceptability rating and perceived to be least corrupt among Cabinet members of the Arroyo regime. Publicly, Arroyo has said that she'll not step down and will continue serving until her term ends in 2010.

I believe that mass mobilizations will continue this week prior to the celebration of EDSA Uno, which anti-Arroyo groups say is the Original EDSA. Today will be most crucial because Arroyo is in her most weakest and most vulnerable state. First, influential groups have joined the fray against her, including both the religious and business. And second, grass-roots organizing has started, with the support of Catholic schools, the main ingredient of any EDSA revolt. Even if Arroyo uses the full strength of the military and police in neutralizing these groups, it will NOT BE SUCCESSFUL because ANY OPPRESSIVE ACT COMING FROM THE STATE RIGHT NOW WOULD IMPACT ON THE INTERNATIONAL IMAGE OF THE ARROYO ADMINISTRATION.

Ergo, groups should pursue this thing to its logical conclusion which is the OUSTER OF ARROYO prior to EDSA Uno celebrations. If it fails to generate mass support or slacken along the way, then, these groups would be more susceptible to counter-revolutionary measures and probably, more oppressive actions coming from Arroyo. Hence, the time to act is NOW.

Incendiary situation on Friday

Three elements--oxygen, wood (or any flamable material) and spark--constitutes fire. This coming Friday is very critical and incendiary to say the least for this administration due to the confluence of three events:

1. The Supreme Court will issue its decision on the Hello Garci tapes controversy, again, reviving the issue. This is the oxygen.
2. People's opposition to charter-change which has been revived by palace factotums in a veiled attempt at perpetuating Arroyo to power beyond 2010. This is the flammable material
3. Lozada's appearance at the NAIA with the Senate as part of the continuing drama related to the ZTE probe. This could provide the spark needed to ignite change.

The Opposition said they will be massing up people to demand for the resignation of Arroyo. Arroyo, on Friday, will be at the Makati Shangri-la for a talk. I believe that the opposition knows that the Supreme Court will issue a decision which nullifies or puts to rest, the Hello Garci tapes issue by saying that the evidence does not prove the complicity of the president in the proven 2004 elections cheating. That the call was made not to influence the elections nor proves that Arroyo was in cahoots with election operator Garcillano in rigging the elections. Obviously, the SC already has a resolution and with them entering into a vote yesterday, the decision will definitely be issued on Friday.

As I wrote in the previous blog, these events will confluent this coming Friday. The only question that remains--will groups have the numbers to show this administration and the world that it has a formidable force to use against Arroyo.

If the Opposition and groups critical of this administration fail to mass up the numbers come Friday, it would further embolden Mrs. Arroyo and her mafia and provide her a sign that (a) her administration is not crumbling as being predicted and (b) that she should push through with her dastardly plan of changing the constitution to perpetuate herself in power.

Campaigns for her ouster would formally start on Friday and would probably last up to the week prior to the Lakas directorate meetings. The last few weeks of February could be very critical for the history of this country, for two things:

1. Any false move by groups critical of Arroyo could spell the end of any efforts at her ouster.
2. Any sign of violence could be used by Arroyo in declaring martial rule which, could be used as her armour against attacks from opposing groups.

If at all, violence is to be used by these critical groups, it should be managed and should be part of a whole plan ushering in the entry of patriotic elements of the military. Without this component, any moves by civil society would be rendered useless and inutile.

And if at all these groups are dead serious in their desire for change, they should involve other traditional groups like political parties to provide some muscle to all these efforts. Now is the time for them to unite against Arroyo. Now is the time to pour everything out. Not doing so would spell complete disaster and could allow Arroyo to stay in power beyond 2010.

Tipping Point

Columnist Willy Esposo wrote yesterday that Lozada could be the tipping point that would lead to the ouster of Arroyo. Basing on the testimony of Lozada before the Senate last Friday, it could be. Yet, the most crucial moments would be the days after today when the prime personalities are expected to testify before the Senate.

Malacanan has allowed its officials to testify before the Senate today, hoping to cast aspersions to the integrity of the star witness. Palace strategists want to neutralize the effects or implications of Lozada's testimony. Obviously, they would try to manage this through the media. How would they do it?

1. They would try to insulate the First Family from any links so to speak, with the ZTE issue. DOTC officials will try to justify the project and refute the overpricing charge of Lozada. It would be a showdown between Lozada and DOTC Undersecretary Formoso. Formoso succeeded in neutralizing Joey de Venecia with his so-called "technical know-how". However, I think, this time, Formoso would be hard pressed in justifying the overprice.

IN their press conference at the palace, Formoso admitted that, indeed, the DOTC jacked up the price because they said, the project should cover the entire country. Bull. This statement admits that DOTC has been remiss in totally studying the project. Imagine, agreeing on a 200 million dollar plus project just to cover a miniscule segment of government? Likewise, the press con attempts to delimit the importance of NEDA in this entire thing by saying that it was the DOTC's function to review the project, not NEDA. It marks the halmark of a spin which I believe, the public would definitely not accept.

Observations

Anti-Arroyo groups should create sub-stories so to speak to expand this issue. Time is not on their side. Malacanang's interest meanwhile, is to end this issue expeditiously by massaging the media. I am very sure that Malacanan has unleashed its "dogs of war" so to speak, which includes former secretary Mike Defensor to take care of the media. They would be successful in some dailies, I know. However, they can't prevent radio stations and TV channels from broadcasting or airing this.

Both would be using time as their ally. Anti-Arroyo groups should unleash their forces in a calibrated manner to cause maximum damage against this administration. This is a make-or-break for them.

Same as Arroyo's. Police would be hard-pressed justifying the "abduction" of Lozada. Malacanang's decision to allow officials to testify could prove deleterious to their interests. Why so? Because this is not the time for them to allow their enemies any room to maneuver against them. Any space given to their detractors in the guise of transparency could spell the start of the end of this administration.

A bawang revelation

After some dramatic incidents, Lozada finally appeared before the public, confirming earlier allegations made by Joey de Venecia. As it turned out, the revelations further dug former COMELEC chairman Abalos' grave. Lozada confirmed what Joey exposed at the Senate a few months ago, which led, as some say, to the ouster of his father a few days ago. What do we have to say about the alleged revelation?

Its a bawang revelation. Nothing of the c-4 kind of stuff. Why?

There's nothing new about what Lozada said, except to say that Abalos turned greedy. The reason why this project became so controversial and eventually resulted to its cancellation was the fact that Abalos wanted to go all out by himself. He became so greedy that he sacrificed the deal and his relations with the Arroyos. I expected something like what Charisa Ocampo did at the height of the Erap ouster movement where the former Equitable bank executive testified that she saw Erap signing as Jose Velarde a few feet away from her powdered face. Or something to that effect.

Here, Lozada simply narrated what Joey said before the Senate which Neri refused to reveal. Lozada actually absolved Neri and the First Gentleman of all doubt about the deal. He merely said that he met FG in a meeting and Abalos reportedly told him that the project is now okey.

So the tale shows that greediness did not pay off for Abalos and his group. The ending of this saga is very imminent. It shows how Abalos went greedy and wanted the pie all for himself.

We need more Lozadas to come out of the woodwork and expose not only the ZTE deal but other anomalous deals which this government is cooking up to the detriment of the Filipino people.

Epiphany

Senator Ping Lacson and Senator Aquilino Pimentel, the true voices of the real opposition, nailed it in the head. They criticized how the palace defended the alleged decision of Arroyo to extend Esperon's term. They say that we are now living in an imperial presidency, where the Chief Executive is being hostaged by a group of generals, both active and retired.

Frankly, these statements resonated in me. Why? Because my ideal of a government to be run in this country for a certain period of time postulates the same kind of arrangement to be undertaken prior to the institution of a more democratic model.

For a long time, I've been advocating for a civilian-military governance model, the kind where military generals rule the country in tandem with members of the academe, civil society and non-government organisations. I believe that this setup is the one we need to replace the present decrepit governance model that we have.

My observations jibe with Lacson's and Pimentel's in the sense that at present, we already have this model in place, albeit, unofficially. That's why the state, though perceived weak, is actually strong to repel external pressures and counter forces.

If this is the setup we have today, where Arroyo serves as just a ceremonial head, without exercising real powers of her own, then, it confirms that a silent revolution is now before us. We don't need a coup because forces have already neutralized Arroyo in the sense that she does not dispense decisions of her own. She dispenses them ceremoniously.

However, this imperial presidency, as Pimentel describes the present governance paradigm is, I think, the extreme interpretation of the New Philippine Revolution (NPR). Why? Because only the military sector wields true power. In my model, it envisions the unity and synthesis of three dominant forces in Philippine society: the civil society, military and the people's organisations.

I've explained this model in previous blogs. The only component that this present model lacks is the active participation of people's organisations in policy-making in all government agencies. Likewise, there is no latent council of senior advisers who contributes towards crafting policies based on their collective experience and skills sets.

This is the only thing lacking in this model. If these generals would eliminate the causes of disapproval, namely Esperon and Arroyo's group, then the people will accept this model and embrace it as their own without shedding blood. Only those in the ideological groups would balk at such a model because it does not conform with their beliefs. Since they are weakening, they don't matter.

Now, I know why FVR etal are silent. They are working for us to neutralize Arroyo, though, in a silent mode. They are building up the model not from ground up but from the present structure and its resources. This supports Ramos' statements saying that we don't need another EDSA because it's easy to neutralize Arroyo without her knowing that she already lost power.

And she already lost power since Day One. She's perceived to be strong yet, the true powers are those behind her.

Public acceptance remains a problem. However, there's a rationale why these true powers want her to continue being there at the helm. They want her to receive all the flak. For if they surface, they'll be exposed and receive direct attacks, leading to civil war.

Hence, going back to Esperon's term extension, this is the test whether Arroyo truly wields real power or not. Should she really announce her alleged decision to extend Esperon, then, this confirms what Ping and Pimentel are saying to us all along--we indeed have a besieged presidency.

Esperon's fate--DOTC Chief

Its confirmed. GMA will NOT, I say, WILL NOT EXTEND ESPERON'S TERM. This was confirmed by one of my sources at the palace. There's a twist however. Esperon is said to be replacing former PNP chief and now DOTC Secretary Mendoza. Yes, some of the palace hawks are giving the gauntlet to Mendo. The loyal DOTC secretary who has done a good job cleaning house, is said to be on his way out.

Yano is the new AFP Chief of Staff, one of Arroyo's closest advisers said. Arroyo reportedly gave Esperon a verbal dressing down just recently. Esperon reportedly shouted at Arroyo for not extending his term. The incident happened last Friday when Arroyo called Esperon to her office at the palace. Esperon allegedly threatened the president that he'll side with the anti-Arroyo groups. Arroyo was unfazed, knowing fully well that no group will ever get Esperon in their side.

So, its final--Esperon out, Yano in.

2008 Start of the Presidential Campaign

If a coup does not occur in either January or February 2008, chances are the following configurations will happen on route to 2010.

Roxas-Legarda

There are strong indications that a tandem between Senators Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda is being done in the woodworks. These two individuals are the strongest candidates for the top posts. Lakas is reportedly talking with either NP or LP. However, Ray Roquero did'nt mention that most Lakas members favoring LP over NP. The question that remains is, what would happen to the principled stand of the LP articulated by LP stalwart former Senator Frank Drilon that their party will never align with the administration party? If LP coalesce with Lakas, Drilon's reputation will definitely be at stake. And surely, their trust ratings will suffer because, obviously, the people will never tolerate a Lakas-LP coalition.

Villar-Noli

Villar has intimated his desire to run for the presidency early on in 2004. The prime problem of Villar is his vice presidential contender. There are indications that NP will side with the administration this year for possible preparations for 2010. Indications are rife that Villar will align with a contender from Arroyo's party, most probably Noli. However, I believe Noli's camp is also preparing for his possible candidacy, at the behest of Arroyo. This tandem will not be the strongest.

Administration choosing either Noli, Bayani or Belmonte

There are signs that these three stooges will campaign hard for the blessing of Arroyo this year. These three coalition partners of Arroyo stand no chance of winning the presidency. Their campaigns are just test missions so to speak. They are being pump primed in the event that Kampi fails to coalesce with NP for 2010. Should any of these talks fail, its either a Noli-Bayani tandem or a Noli-Belmonte tandem will happen. In any case, Bayani Fernando's candidacy is interesting because he can run either as Vice President or Senator. If he runs for Senator, he has a strong chance of winning. This year 2008 is a critical year for Bayani. If his Test mission fails to generate enough dent in his ratings in any surveys, he could probably settle for the Marikina post again in a post-Arroyo regime.

Roxas-Noli

A Roxas-Noli tandem is also formidable. Both groups share the same passion. Both have strong campaign machineries. However, I don't know if Noli would agree on such a coalition. In any case, should their tandem happen, it will occur when Noli forms his own party since I believe, LP stalwarts will never coalesce with Arroyo's.

Binay-Estrada

Within the opposition, there are lingering talks of a Binay-Estrada tandem. Obviously, Jinggoy is a strong vice-presidential candidate and a tandem like this will definitely benefit the Estradas rather than Binay. If this occurs, what will happen to a possible UNO coalition with LP?

Insider info

These talks as revealed by Ray Roquero involves the total absolution of Arroyo's camp from any prosecution after 2010. Knowing these people from NP, they will obviously agree since its a cheap negotiation anyway.

Curio

Notice that no name of either Arroyo or De Venecia came up with all configurations, precisely because, as far as the public is concerned, they are has-beens. The question really is---will these two personas allow themselves to fade away from the public eye? Surely, they would really really press hard for a change of government prior to 2010. This month, an attempt was made in Congress precisely about this one. The hearing will happen in the first week of January. The question is--will NP and LP allow this to happen? The chances of a parliamentary shift is very strong given that the opposition is truly weak at the core.