The presscon of the two Juniors
I was listening to the speeches and answers of AFP Chief Esperon and PNP Chief Razon, two "Juniors" so to speak of Gloria during their joint "spontaneous" press conference inside Camp Aguinaldo. Among those they said, Esperon's answers came as "refreshing" to me. He reiterated the AFP's support to the "Spirit of EDSA". A few minutes ago, during Ramos' media interview, Ramos reiterated the "Spirit of EDSA". Last week, JDV also told one media personality about the "Spirit of EDSA". Esperon was very categorical in saying that they support the Spirit of EDSA.
The Spirit of EDSA
During one interview, Esperon said that this time, this political crisis should be solved by civil society. The challenge, Esperon said, is for civil society to prove to the people their will to resolve the crisis. Esperon said that civil society must resolve this crisis through the constitutional processes, meaning, it should be through the democratic institutions which the AFP helped restore after the constitutional authoritarianism of the Marcos era.
I am always reading between the lines here. I always write about the motivations of people, why people actually said these things and why it was said during that time. And it strikes me that Ramos' speech (a prepared one) and Esperon's including Razon's were written in the same vein. I mean, it seems that both Ramos and Esperon have talked prior to this.
Instead of seeing the press conference as an attempt by Gloria to show the support of the AFP-PNP behind her administration, it should be seen as a DEPARTURE from the usual tactics of tower strengthening.
Gloria weaker now than before
It is now very clear to me that Gloria is actually weaker than what people perceive. Since the call is a New Brand of People Power, this new breed will not involve the security forces. This crisis will be left for the civilian authorities to resolve themselves. The AFP and PNP are solidly behind the Filipino People, that is very evident. This is a GOOD SIGN. Why?
Fence-sitting AFP and PNP more dangerous to Gloria
A fence-sitting AFP and PNP is MORE DANGEROUS to Gloria than a WITHDRAWAL OF SUPPORT. Why? Because that's a sign that she's left without defense. That she's now as vulnerable as she was in 2005.
See it in a different light
We must see all of these events in a different light. EDSA 1 and EDSA 2 happened when the military broke the chain of command and supported the Filipino People in the rallies. Now, we will see none of the announcement of withdrawal of support. We will see a purist form of EDSA where the resolution will not be through the parliament of the streets. No.
Resolve through Constitutional Means
Rather, the resolution of this crisis will be resolved in the backrooms of Malacanang. Intense pressure from civil society, religious, business groups and Youth groups will make Gloria resign or, the most logical conclusion is put forward a letter handing over the reins of power to her constitutional successor due to inability to dispense her functions.
Impeachment? Again?
Senate President Manny Villar put forward impeachment. This is a vain attempt at resolving the issue since this impeachment will just be junked by a Kampi-dominated Congress.
Resignation is more acceptable
What is more potent than this and more logical is for Gloria to resign and hand over government to Noli. Why? First, that would be the most acceptable "change" that the oligarchs and the rich could tolerate. Forget about revolution. It cannot be done in the present dispensation. Admit it---we are dominated by a non-conscientious oligarchic system.
The New Form of EDSA
The new form of EDSA is a form wherein crisis will not be influenced by a military intervention. Again, I will reiterate my prognosis that this will be resolved PEACEFULLY, no coups, no withdrawal of support, no military intervention. It will be quick and bloodless. This is the newest breed of EDSA and would be the purest expression of People Power.
Gloria will be forced to go on leave and hand over power to a care-taker government to be headed by the Vice President.
Showing posts with label military rule. Show all posts
Showing posts with label military rule. Show all posts
Monday, February 25, 2008
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Incendiary situation on Friday
Three elements--oxygen, wood (or any flamable material) and spark--constitutes fire. This coming Friday is very critical and incendiary to say the least for this administration due to the confluence of three events:
1. The Supreme Court will issue its decision on the Hello Garci tapes controversy, again, reviving the issue. This is the oxygen.
2. People's opposition to charter-change which has been revived by palace factotums in a veiled attempt at perpetuating Arroyo to power beyond 2010. This is the flammable material
3. Lozada's appearance at the NAIA with the Senate as part of the continuing drama related to the ZTE probe. This could provide the spark needed to ignite change.
The Opposition said they will be massing up people to demand for the resignation of Arroyo. Arroyo, on Friday, will be at the Makati Shangri-la for a talk. I believe that the opposition knows that the Supreme Court will issue a decision which nullifies or puts to rest, the Hello Garci tapes issue by saying that the evidence does not prove the complicity of the president in the proven 2004 elections cheating. That the call was made not to influence the elections nor proves that Arroyo was in cahoots with election operator Garcillano in rigging the elections. Obviously, the SC already has a resolution and with them entering into a vote yesterday, the decision will definitely be issued on Friday.
As I wrote in the previous blog, these events will confluent this coming Friday. The only question that remains--will groups have the numbers to show this administration and the world that it has a formidable force to use against Arroyo.
If the Opposition and groups critical of this administration fail to mass up the numbers come Friday, it would further embolden Mrs. Arroyo and her mafia and provide her a sign that (a) her administration is not crumbling as being predicted and (b) that she should push through with her dastardly plan of changing the constitution to perpetuate herself in power.
Campaigns for her ouster would formally start on Friday and would probably last up to the week prior to the Lakas directorate meetings. The last few weeks of February could be very critical for the history of this country, for two things:
1. Any false move by groups critical of Arroyo could spell the end of any efforts at her ouster.
2. Any sign of violence could be used by Arroyo in declaring martial rule which, could be used as her armour against attacks from opposing groups.
If at all, violence is to be used by these critical groups, it should be managed and should be part of a whole plan ushering in the entry of patriotic elements of the military. Without this component, any moves by civil society would be rendered useless and inutile.
And if at all these groups are dead serious in their desire for change, they should involve other traditional groups like political parties to provide some muscle to all these efforts. Now is the time for them to unite against Arroyo. Now is the time to pour everything out. Not doing so would spell complete disaster and could allow Arroyo to stay in power beyond 2010.
1. The Supreme Court will issue its decision on the Hello Garci tapes controversy, again, reviving the issue. This is the oxygen.
2. People's opposition to charter-change which has been revived by palace factotums in a veiled attempt at perpetuating Arroyo to power beyond 2010. This is the flammable material
3. Lozada's appearance at the NAIA with the Senate as part of the continuing drama related to the ZTE probe. This could provide the spark needed to ignite change.
The Opposition said they will be massing up people to demand for the resignation of Arroyo. Arroyo, on Friday, will be at the Makati Shangri-la for a talk. I believe that the opposition knows that the Supreme Court will issue a decision which nullifies or puts to rest, the Hello Garci tapes issue by saying that the evidence does not prove the complicity of the president in the proven 2004 elections cheating. That the call was made not to influence the elections nor proves that Arroyo was in cahoots with election operator Garcillano in rigging the elections. Obviously, the SC already has a resolution and with them entering into a vote yesterday, the decision will definitely be issued on Friday.
As I wrote in the previous blog, these events will confluent this coming Friday. The only question that remains--will groups have the numbers to show this administration and the world that it has a formidable force to use against Arroyo.
If the Opposition and groups critical of this administration fail to mass up the numbers come Friday, it would further embolden Mrs. Arroyo and her mafia and provide her a sign that (a) her administration is not crumbling as being predicted and (b) that she should push through with her dastardly plan of changing the constitution to perpetuate herself in power.
Campaigns for her ouster would formally start on Friday and would probably last up to the week prior to the Lakas directorate meetings. The last few weeks of February could be very critical for the history of this country, for two things:
1. Any false move by groups critical of Arroyo could spell the end of any efforts at her ouster.
2. Any sign of violence could be used by Arroyo in declaring martial rule which, could be used as her armour against attacks from opposing groups.
If at all, violence is to be used by these critical groups, it should be managed and should be part of a whole plan ushering in the entry of patriotic elements of the military. Without this component, any moves by civil society would be rendered useless and inutile.
And if at all these groups are dead serious in their desire for change, they should involve other traditional groups like political parties to provide some muscle to all these efforts. Now is the time for them to unite against Arroyo. Now is the time to pour everything out. Not doing so would spell complete disaster and could allow Arroyo to stay in power beyond 2010.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Civilian or Military rule?
Why is there a debate on who’s better to rule this country—civilians or the military? Some columnists say that the reason why some people disagree with what happened in 29 November 2007 is the apparent fear of some civil society members on the prospect of military rule. Why will we fear military rule when, for all intents and purposes, civilian rule has proven to be quite ineffective in governance? Also, this debate should not be discussed at this point because it is quite evident that we have’nt yet succeeded in weakening Arroyo.
After the November 29 siege of the Peninsula, momentum has considerably lessened. Like magic, talks about the ZTE, the palace bribery and the rising graft incidence have all but vanished. We don’t see Senators scrambling to initiate the ZTE probe. Nor do we see Cayetano or Escudero hammering Malacanan for a repeat bout. Even the presidentiables, namely Villar, Roxas and Legarda have all clammed up. Why?
The inability of these personalities to finish what they have started in the first place shows their true character. This tendency to grandstand for the sake of their political careers bolster public demands for the abolition of this “hallowed” chamber. Obviously, these senators were asked by the palace not to rock the boat, when, senators should consider the primary interest of the public to know than national security.
Going back, for the past few years, civilians have proven to be quite ineffective in governance. What’s wrong with testing military rule? Those who argue against military rule use the Marcos dictatorship as an example.
The Marcos dictatorship is not, I say, not an argument against military rule. This form of governance was not purely military. It’s a civilian-led dictatorship. Filipinos have not tried military rule. And to write against it at this point is premature.
What groups should need to ask themselves is this— how will they strengthen their ranks in the fight against Arroyo. What are the common tasks and points they need to push this fight to its logical conclusion?
Wittingly or unwittingly, these armchair revolutionaries are allowing themselves to participate in the psywar being done by the ruling clique. By using their time and resources debating on who's better, these groups should instead sit down and strategize. Arroyo is slowly regaining her bearings and it will be just a matter of time before she regains full strength. When that happens, two scenarios are sure to happen: No-elections and continued conjugal dictatorship.
Its time to act rather than talk.
After the November 29 siege of the Peninsula, momentum has considerably lessened. Like magic, talks about the ZTE, the palace bribery and the rising graft incidence have all but vanished. We don’t see Senators scrambling to initiate the ZTE probe. Nor do we see Cayetano or Escudero hammering Malacanan for a repeat bout. Even the presidentiables, namely Villar, Roxas and Legarda have all clammed up. Why?
The inability of these personalities to finish what they have started in the first place shows their true character. This tendency to grandstand for the sake of their political careers bolster public demands for the abolition of this “hallowed” chamber. Obviously, these senators were asked by the palace not to rock the boat, when, senators should consider the primary interest of the public to know than national security.
Going back, for the past few years, civilians have proven to be quite ineffective in governance. What’s wrong with testing military rule? Those who argue against military rule use the Marcos dictatorship as an example.
The Marcos dictatorship is not, I say, not an argument against military rule. This form of governance was not purely military. It’s a civilian-led dictatorship. Filipinos have not tried military rule. And to write against it at this point is premature.
What groups should need to ask themselves is this— how will they strengthen their ranks in the fight against Arroyo. What are the common tasks and points they need to push this fight to its logical conclusion?
Wittingly or unwittingly, these armchair revolutionaries are allowing themselves to participate in the psywar being done by the ruling clique. By using their time and resources debating on who's better, these groups should instead sit down and strategize. Arroyo is slowly regaining her bearings and it will be just a matter of time before she regains full strength. When that happens, two scenarios are sure to happen: No-elections and continued conjugal dictatorship.
Its time to act rather than talk.
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