What to do?

Failure of MOA-AD is planned

Heard the interview of former general Hermogenes Esperon by Tony Velasquez in his show over at ANC.

"What I did regarding the peace negotiations with the MILF was done in GOOD FAITH. And for those who want my head, I serve at the pleasure of the president. I respect the decision of the Supreme Court...We will file a manifestation or a motion for reconsideration."

Bull. We all know that Malacanang abandoned the MOA-AD when the middle class, especially those belonging to the civil society, registered a howl of protest against it. And the Palace does'nt intend to pursue this, considering that the MILF already said that they will not go back to the negotiating table without the signature of the GRP in a similarly worded agreement. The MILF want nothing less. For sure, negotiations for the stalled peace talks would have to be done after Congress passes the lifting of the foreign equity bill being proposed by Speaker Nograles. As soon as Congress and Malacanang opens the charter up for amendments, that'll be the time for a resumption of the peace talks.

Prosecuting Esperon and the peace panel members for treason? That will never prosper. Esperon enjoys the confidence of the president, because if that's not the case, Gloria would have fired him for obvious dereliction of duty.

Impeachment

Speaking on the impeachment, complainants know that, even if they have sufficient evidence to pill down Gloria, this is a wasteful exercise in futility. They don't have the numbers and time is against them. Congress will definitely prioritize Nograles' bill. The complaint will be relegated in the backburner and for sure, nothing will come out of it. 

Maybe the proponents like to squeeze every publicity juice from it. In all likelihood, this will also fail. People already know Gloria's liability and rubbing it in is not a good way to create casus belli.

Will they use those voluminous documents to file criminal complaints against Gloria? Yes. They are using it a carrot and stick approach. Will it work? Well, it will not. If Gloria succeeds in changing the charter, then, this complaint will fall by the wayside. Now, should the elections happen, still, Gloria and her gang of misfits will surely get away with it. The next administration will definitely not create instability by pursuing a case against its predecessor. That would be a waste of time. Besides, Arroyo will surely enter into a compromise agreement whoever succeeds in 2010. Whether its Mar Roxas or even Joseph Estrada, Gloria is sure to escape the full arm of the law. 

The Reproductive Health Bill

So, Gloria's minions are sure to get what they want come November. They have the numbers. They have the strength. And surely, they'll not get a solid opposition from the church since the palace is using the Reproductive Health bill as a leverage. Critical in all these moves against Gloria is the backing of the Catholic Church. Without those legions coming from Catholic schools, any attempt at rousing an EDSA-like revolution will fail. 

There are talks that Malacanang will enter into a compromise agreement with the Catholic Church. Malacanang wants the church to keep silent against cha-cha in exchange for the president's veto. Without the church in the equation, Gloria is sure to move without opposition for charter change.

Quo Vadis?

So, what to do now? Opposition against Gloria is crumbling like a ginger bread house. If people expect to do it through "legal, constitutional means", failure is a certainty. If people, especially Atty. Harry Roque, the Black and White Movement, and Iloilo Vice Governor Suplico wants Gloria to account for her sins, even after her term expires, dream on. Gloria and her husband will surely escape the long arm of the law. With or without elections in 2010, they'll escape unscathed.

The next move? If people really want justice done. If people really want to make an example of Gloria, like what they did against Erap in 2001, they may have to admit that doing it the constitutional route is not the best way to do it.