What to do?

Failure of MOA-AD is planned

Heard the interview of former general Hermogenes Esperon by Tony Velasquez in his show over at ANC.

"What I did regarding the peace negotiations with the MILF was done in GOOD FAITH. And for those who want my head, I serve at the pleasure of the president. I respect the decision of the Supreme Court...We will file a manifestation or a motion for reconsideration."

Bull. We all know that Malacanang abandoned the MOA-AD when the middle class, especially those belonging to the civil society, registered a howl of protest against it. And the Palace does'nt intend to pursue this, considering that the MILF already said that they will not go back to the negotiating table without the signature of the GRP in a similarly worded agreement. The MILF want nothing less. For sure, negotiations for the stalled peace talks would have to be done after Congress passes the lifting of the foreign equity bill being proposed by Speaker Nograles. As soon as Congress and Malacanang opens the charter up for amendments, that'll be the time for a resumption of the peace talks.

Prosecuting Esperon and the peace panel members for treason? That will never prosper. Esperon enjoys the confidence of the president, because if that's not the case, Gloria would have fired him for obvious dereliction of duty.

Impeachment

Speaking on the impeachment, complainants know that, even if they have sufficient evidence to pill down Gloria, this is a wasteful exercise in futility. They don't have the numbers and time is against them. Congress will definitely prioritize Nograles' bill. The complaint will be relegated in the backburner and for sure, nothing will come out of it. 

Maybe the proponents like to squeeze every publicity juice from it. In all likelihood, this will also fail. People already know Gloria's liability and rubbing it in is not a good way to create casus belli.

Will they use those voluminous documents to file criminal complaints against Gloria? Yes. They are using it a carrot and stick approach. Will it work? Well, it will not. If Gloria succeeds in changing the charter, then, this complaint will fall by the wayside. Now, should the elections happen, still, Gloria and her gang of misfits will surely get away with it. The next administration will definitely not create instability by pursuing a case against its predecessor. That would be a waste of time. Besides, Arroyo will surely enter into a compromise agreement whoever succeeds in 2010. Whether its Mar Roxas or even Joseph Estrada, Gloria is sure to escape the full arm of the law. 

The Reproductive Health Bill

So, Gloria's minions are sure to get what they want come November. They have the numbers. They have the strength. And surely, they'll not get a solid opposition from the church since the palace is using the Reproductive Health bill as a leverage. Critical in all these moves against Gloria is the backing of the Catholic Church. Without those legions coming from Catholic schools, any attempt at rousing an EDSA-like revolution will fail. 

There are talks that Malacanang will enter into a compromise agreement with the Catholic Church. Malacanang wants the church to keep silent against cha-cha in exchange for the president's veto. Without the church in the equation, Gloria is sure to move without opposition for charter change.

Quo Vadis?

So, what to do now? Opposition against Gloria is crumbling like a ginger bread house. If people expect to do it through "legal, constitutional means", failure is a certainty. If people, especially Atty. Harry Roque, the Black and White Movement, and Iloilo Vice Governor Suplico wants Gloria to account for her sins, even after her term expires, dream on. Gloria and her husband will surely escape the long arm of the law. With or without elections in 2010, they'll escape unscathed.

The next move? If people really want justice done. If people really want to make an example of Gloria, like what they did against Erap in 2001, they may have to admit that doing it the constitutional route is not the best way to do it. 

The Truth: Filipino Version

Truth--its everybody's buzz word today. From the halls of the Senate to the backwaters of Sulu, everybody wants everybody to seek and know the truth. And what is the truth?

Truth, as they say, is relative. One's truth maybe different from another's. For example, Neri's truth maybe coached in the simpliest terms--I heard my president say this, but I don't know if I'm at liberty of telling you about it. In JLo's case, I heard Neri lambasting the president for being an evil person but the truth is, he just wants me to moderate it. For Neri, he knows what the truth is, but he does not want to jeopardize the entire government since he probably believes that when Filipinos know the truth, will they be able to handle it properly? For Neri, the proper handling of the truth is filing charges in court. For JLo, its for the people to decide what to do next.

So, the truth depends on the perspective of people. For example, in the case of the on-going rice crisis. Government claims they're enough stocks. The problem is price, which, they say, is being influenced by global rice prices. Upon closer scrutiny, however, the people found out that the real reason why prices of rice continues to go up is that the rice cartel is manipulating it. Market prices are not dictating the price. No. It's the greediness of rice traders that is forcing rice prices to shoot up. So, its not global. Its purely local. And the fact is, government is helpless in combatting these big-time rice traders simply because they are transacting with them. Just like in Erap's time when the former president got what's due him for conniving and going to bed with jueteng lords, this government could fall under the weight of its prostitution with rice traders.

Therefore, for the Filipino, truth is what the Pinoy wants to believe. He wants to believe that he can feed himself without importing rice since he sees thousands of thousands of acres of prime, pristine and nutrient-rich lands all around. He does'nt see the fact that his government's priorities are elsewhere. Yes, there is land to cultivate. But government de-prioritized agriculture since government operators or the mafia does not see any profit from it. It prioritizes BPOs and the banks because everytime that a new foreign company sets up shop here, there's obviously protection money involved. Unlike agriculture.

There's plenty of land but you see thousands of them being turned into subdivisions. There's plenty of land but you don't see any tractors, any processing plants nor even rice mills dotting the landscape. There's no fertilizers because the monies were diverted elsewhere. There's no processing plants nor rice mills because the monies devoted to the development of agriculture have been diverted somewhere else. So rice varieties are being re-processed, NFA stocks diverted and big-time rice traders cum operators are happy. And when they are happy, the mayors, congressmen, governors and the palace are happy.

The palace announced that we will be spending 1.5 billion pesos for importation. Great. The palace just gave this 1.5 billion as free money to those traders.

Conspiracy of silence

Esperon says there’s a coup and he should be believed. In fact, says the teary-eyed Esperon, five ex-soldiers were arrested. Unknown to Esperon, three have been released. It was funny that Esperon should use these ex-soldiers. Imagine, accusing them of planning a coup when all the arresting officers can show are three rusty rifles. Yeah, three rifles for a coup? Come on Espy!

Eight hundred rallyists were prevented from going to the EDSA Shrine. Farmers are also barred from Mendiola, the traditional gathering place of those who want change. Manila mayor Alfredo Lim rejected earlier requests for militants to go to Mendiola on January 22 to commemorate the Mendiola massacre. Militants are dreaming. How would they be able to convince the one who actually headed the team which mowed the farmers down in the first place?


FVR, JDV and Kenney were conspicuously absent today in Malacanan. A palace factotum says, Kenney is in Zamboanga, playing tourist guide with two US legislators. I just don't buy it why a Malacanan functionary would assume the role of a US spokesman for a diplomat. It makes no sense. There was no explanation nor alibi given on behalf of FVR and JDV.

Civil society groups are keeping their mouths shut about these destabilization. However, its odd why the confirmation of a coup came from an unlikely source, Joma. Joma said that Arroyo would not finish her term because groups are out to get her head.

If I base my observations on what's going on, it points to just one thing: there's a revolutionary situation. Though there's a conspiracy right now of these groups on what their motivation really lies, it seems that their actions point to a confirmation of earlier reports. I remember of a similar strategy used against Erap in 2001. Erap was also saying how strong and how stable his position was until the forces of civil society overwhelmed him, forcing him out of power.

COPA is silent now. Even other groups known to oppose Arroyo. Groups seem to be keeping their aces close to their chests. This means that they're dead serious and fully capable of toppling this regime.

The Crumbling Bastille

I wrote here two nights ago that the political situation has been muddled by the pardon of Erap. My presumption is we cannot really say where Erap's loyalties are. However, his statement below says much about his present stand--he's backing away from calls for Arroyo to quit. This is expected of him, since, Estrada is really not much of a strategist. If we are to review his credentials, he's (1) a media creation and (2) he does'nt have the vision. Likewise, Estrada, like Arroyo, are flanked by bumbling idiots. Obviously, this statement says much of the quality of people he likes to be surrounded with.

If I am Erap, I would distance myself from all these people and just keep silent. He does'nt know the real situation. He does'nt realize the impact of his statements, one for those who allied with him during his incarceration and two for the millions who still idolize him. Releasing these kinds of statements harm him because SHOULD THE ANTI-GMA FORCES SUCCEED, HE MIGHT FIND HIMSELF IN JAIL AGAIN.

I think Erap was advised to issue these kinds of statement in reaction to the statement by former FVR that his release was a "calamity". Erap considers FVR his enemy and by siding with Arroyo, he thinks that he can save himself from the clutches of FVR. He's wrong.

My proposal to Erap is this--quit now while you're still free. Do not frustrate or serve as a stumbling block in all these efforts at ousting Arroyo. You don't have a full grasp of political reality.

Net of discussion--do not side with the crumbling Bastille. You might find yourself incarceration yet again. And this time, you might find yourself sharing a cell with his benefactor.

Estrada backs away from Arroyo-quit call
Rejects bid to set up transition government

By Jocelyn Uy
Inquirer
Last updated 02:52am (Mla time) 10/29/2007
Most Read
MANILA, Philippines -- Former President Joseph Estrada Sunday distanced himself from fresh calls for the resignation of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo sparked by the pardon she had granted the disgraced leader convicted of plunder.

“It’s the people -- the poor sector which is the largest part of our society who should choose and decide who they want to run or replace the government, not the few elitists and the churchmen,” Estrada told the Philippine Daily Inquirer, parent company of INQUIRER.net, by phone.

On Friday, the ousted leader was given a new lease on life and walked out of his sprawling Tanay, Rizal, vacation house, where he had spent most of the six years he had been under house arrest, a free man after accepting executive clemency.

The pardon, which both the Estrada and Arroyo camps cited as a step toward national reconciliation, has triggered calls among civil society groups and political and church leaders for the removal of the President and the setting up of a junta to be headed by Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno.

A Puno-led transition government also does not appeal to Estrada, who said that the nation would only tumble into the same pitfalls of the military-backed uprising in 2001 that “unconstitutionally” removed him from power.

Estrada noted that it was Puno who “invented” his constructive resignation, an act that violated his constitutional rights as the then President.

“Haven’t they learned from their mistakes during the Edsa Dos? Our country has gone from bad to worse [since then]. I don’t believe that these elitists and church leaders should decide the fate of our country. It’s the majority who should have a say now,” he stressed, strongly indicating his aversion to another people power.

No deal

But he reiterated that there were no strings attached or an agreement forged between him and the administration in his acceptance of executive clemency.

“There was no deal. I thanked her last Friday because it is the right thing to do as our Filipino values dictate,” he explained.

Speaking like the true “father of the masses” his supporters hold him up to be, Estrada pointed out that the elite should never dictate to the poor Filipinos who have been helping sustain the government through their dollar remittances from abroad.

‘Hello Garci’

Estrada himself had called for the resignation of Ms Arroyo at the height of last year’s “Hello Garci” controversy which suggested that she rigged the 2004 presidential elections. She has denied any wrongdoing.

Like former President Corazon Aquino, Estrada had clamored for a transition government to replace the Arroyo administration and establish a system of governance designed for systematic changes and radical reforms to ensure lasting solutions to poverty and corruption that have tormented the nation.

He had even expressed a willingness to lead the transition government while it was looking for a permanent replacement.

Not seeking public office

The 70-year-old Estrada Sunday repeated his earlier statement that he would no longer run for any government office and would rather spend his remaining years in the “full service” of the poor.

But when asked if he would entertain thoughts of entering politics again in the future, he replied, “It’s up to the people to decide.”

He also expressed no inclination in joining the National Anti-Poverty Commission, saying that his attention was more focused on linking up with nongovernment organizations to pursue his pro-poor programs.

Among the projects he cited was the “white revolution,” which he had initiated as then senator by authoring the Philippine Carabao Act to propagate the animal to ensure more production of quality milk for farmers and poor schoolchildren.

He mentioned visiting the first carabao center in the Science City of Muñoz in Nueva Ecija province, which he planned to replicate in the Visayas and Mindanao with the help of former Sen. Leticia Shahani.

“The government now has competent people in the antipoverty commission. Now, I would like more to work with the private sector,” said Estrada, who had spent his first Sunday as a free man with his grandchildren.

Strategic Masterstroke

Arroyo made a masterstroke when she pardoned Erap--it removed a major force in their ranks and effectively divided them. However, the situation is not hopeless. Erap can still undermine Arroyo. I mean, Erap can still regain whatever credibility he has with the people by just one strong statement of withdrawal of support from her. That would be sweet justice should Erap do this. Anyway, the papers have been signed and there's nothing really that Arroyo can do at this time about it. She can't file another case against Erap. The question that everybody is asking is--why is Erap seem so fearful of Arroyo?

Could it be that he was threatened by Arroyo of perdition should he not sign the pardon? Could it be that Erap is really not interested with politics anymore? Could it be that Erap has "learned his lesson" and that he knows for a fact that his force is just a "mirage"?

The political situation is still fuzzy at the moment. Nobody can really say where all of these things are headed. One thing is sure though--Erap and Arroyo have cancelled themselves out. They have one common enemy=FVR. It remains to be seen whether FVR still have the force to ram against them. I believe at this time, the accounting of forces have already been made and both camps know their true strength. The question is--will we see a change of government this November?

Observation on the online petition

Based on a reading of the People's Pulse, this online petition will amount to nothing. The people does'nt want a snap elections. Its a waste of time and money. What they support though, is a caretaker government. The concept of a caretaker government seems to resonate loudly among the people and I believe that should this happen, it will be supported by the people.

The caretaker government should rule this country until 2010. By that time, everything would have calmed down and a new constitution would have been in place. That's the way to go. The only question is--are these forces really determined to go all out against Arroyo? We will see in the coming weeks.

Coopted: Nasindak na ba talaga si Erap?

An interview over Korina Sanchez's show of Speaker Joe de Venecia and his wife tells it all--there's something really wrong with his relationship with the president. He verified the testimony of his son of the "shouting match". And in classic de Venecia fashion, he merely shrugged and said that "they're still friends" despite what Gina described as their "cordial relationship" with Arroyo.

What can be gleaned from all these are:

1. JDV admitted that their relationship with the president has been totally strained, bolstering the credibility of Joey as a witness.
2. There's really a campaign to oust him from the Speakership, as what Majority Floor Leader Nograles intimated during his own interview.
3. JDV is not clueless of what's happening but he tries to hide his animosity with the president for reasons unknown.
4. Administration party is divided over the issue of Erap's pardon.
5. JDV is really not fit to be a leader because his nature is that of a soft, cowardly person.

Is Erap really been coopted?

JDV also intimated that Erap Estrada has been coopted by the administration. He says that "Erap will issue strong statements" in the next couple of days. What are those strong statements? Is it against the president or for the president? There's a feeling among allies of the opposition that Erap has been effectively gagged by Arroyo. But, is it really the case?

Nasindak na ba talaga si Erap?

As I wrote here some months ago, Erap's family is not really that determined to go on an all-out war against Arroyo. This has been evident since 2002. They're just interested in freeing Erap. They just want to spend money to create the conditions to justify the release of Erap (i.e. those surveys, etc.).

A PDI report today says that Arroyo is mulling the possibility of offering the poverty commission job for Erap. Is this the result of negotiations between them? That Erap will now be working with Arroyo in government? So now, are we seeing the unification of both administration and the Erap opposition? If this is the case, do we now see Lakas-NUCD being sidelined and marginalized? Are we looking at an ERap-ARROYO alliance thru the Kampi?

Effects

Admit it or not, the anti-GMA forces are now in a quandary. They lost a major player. However, what's good about this is the possibility of these forces gaining the camp of FVR-JDV. Yes, I believe there is really a unification of all former EDSA 2 forces. The question is --do they still have the strength to oust Arroyo?

Why the coup never materialized

12 September 2007. Notice the numeral configuration: 12+09+2007. If you add 1+2 in 12, its 3. If you add 2+0+0=7, its 9, divisible by 3. The charade started at 9 and ended in 10am. All odds. Truly, an oddity of an event, is'nt?

At the eve of the Erap verdict, I received information from my deepthroats that Camp Aguinaldo was closely monitoring the movements of a group who were planning for a coup. Composed of active military-men and some retired officials, this group has been in the radar since the issue started. They never moved nor were they even close to their objective. Why?

Like I said in my previous blogs, this Erap conviction will not create the desired effects, which is a revolutionary situation. Erap, despite his popularity, is a spent force. People will not go to the streets just to protest his innocence. First, the masa is a disorganized and disparate lot. They don't have credible mass leaders. They don't have the money to mobilize themselves. And why is that?

My deep throat says that Erap and his family were really expecting a not guilty verdict. That's why they really did'nt pour money to the Erap mass groups because they are expecting an acquittal. Analysts say that when Erap heard of the pronouncement of guilt, he was crest-fallen. There must have been a negotiated compromise between Erap and GMA. But, it did not materialize because, as expected, Erap exposed his weak armor again and allowed GMA and his minions to bastardize him again.

Erap will really not pour his millions to support a coup against GMA because (a) his wealth has been dissipated due to these trials and (b) he's too dumb and afraid of GMA. Yes, Dorothy, your favorite Asiong Salonga is really like that in real life.

The coup will never materialize now because they are fast losing their benefactors. However, I bet my bottom dollar that: (1) this coup, if this happens, will be in October. This will be triggered by the Senate investigations coupled with an Erap appeal; and (2) Erap will be transferred to Muntinlupa by this time. These two events will eventuall create an upswing of support for a move to change the GMA administration

Beyond Erap

What's the reason why civil society groups decided not to support mass actions protesting the Erap's decision? The reason is, they want to move forward and push the anti-GMA initiatives to a higher stage, which is what we call strategic offensive. These groups does not want a comeback scenario; they want a different set of leaders to replace GMA. That's why the call was "You're Next" instead of "Let's protest Erap's conviction."

Come to think of it, this is more dangerous than protesting against Erap's conviction.

For one, this call encapsulates the overall theme that "our campaign is for change; not to protect the hide of one." Obviously, the ones behind civil society right now are what we call "third force". Let these two camps fight each other--we'll annihilate both of them anyway. So, slowly, the third force is showing its strength. However, what I see is a calibrated and measured movement. Meaning, there is really something cooking. And this bodes ill to the One In the Seat of Murky Pasig.

Will Gloria survive this? Maybe. Or maybe not. Let's just see. Let's just see when all of these things start to unravel itself in the coming days.