Analysis of the Phil. Situation: The Religious Groups

As I write this, there are now more than 70 people's organisations who already intimated their desire to participate in the December 12 interfaith rally. Rally organisers are expecting more groups and more people to join. As it stands, Manila Archbishop Cardinal Rosales has issued a statement in support of the rally. El Shaddai leader Mike Velarde already threw his hat into the derby, so does Jesus Is Lord Movement leader Ed Villanueva. Wagging tongues say, Velarde was urged by the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP). The question is--will the big Iglesia Ni Cristo group take active part as well? It's significant since the INC enjoys a wider constituency than El Shaddai and the Church is known for really delivering warm bodies (reminiscent of what they did in EDSA 1 and EDSA 2). As of the moment, there are some influential political leaders who are talking with some high INC officials. We still don't know if these talks will prosper.

I hate to say it but, I'll say it anyway--I shudder at the thought of a "spy" within the ranks of the anti-charter change and anti-Arroyo movement subverting this interfaith rally. I don't want to cast aspersions to the intentions of some of the religious groups, but, there is a possibility that one of them would, at the last minute, betray this. What would prevent, say El Shaddai leader Mike Velarde calling his flock not to attend the rally anymore since he and some Malacanang officials already made a "deal"? Remember that Presidential Political Adviser Gabby Claudio and Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita suggested a "clarificatory" meeting with Velarde anytime soon. The possibility of a Velarde/El Shaddai pullout is big. Think of this scenario:

This administration is known to subvert any big gathering such as this one. Everyone knows at the palace that if they fail to manage this huge anti-Gloria rally, this is bound to lead to something big, similar to the one in Thailand.

But, first things first---rally organisers should be able to gather as many people as possible to make this happen. To do just that, people should be psychologically prep up to go there. For people to go, they must think that this rally would lead to something wonderful afterwards. Meaning, it should be backed by the strongest and the most credible political and religious personalities. That's the psychology of the Filipino--he sides with whoever is the stronger force.

As of now, people think that this rally is REALLY big, because the political and religious personages are coming--former President Joseph Estrada, Velarde, Villanueva, Rosales, former government officials etc. Now, what if Malacanang maneuvers to destroy this formidable group? What if they enter into a compromise, say with the Catholic Church on the issue of Reproductive Health bill and Arroyo dangles her veto powers? Will we see Rosales (who has a niece inside the Palace) and Velarde (a brother, Mel, manages a government agency and you know the other interests) taking a back slide and instead of encouraging their people to go, they let them counter it instead? Again, I'm not casting aspersions against these people, but hey, this is politics. And in politics, anything can happen.

Backsliding has happened in the past. Velarde has backslided so many times already that I don't remember these incidences anymore. Remember, more than a religious preacher, Velarde is a savvy political operator. He's a survivor of many administrations. I just hope that Velarde knows where he really stands and has the balls to really take his commitments on this seriously. Otherwise, if Velarde will just use this as a negotiating tool, then, rally organisers should prepare for a Plan B to counter a possible backsliding.

Now, who actually controls Velarde and Rosales? Are they their own man? Velarde, as you know, is a consummate businessman. While, Rosales (who is sickly) is not someone with a solid political belief. This is the thing. More influential leaders, say Ramos, JDV and Estrada should exert their influence over these two leaders and assure them that something is really going to happen that would change the political landscape and affect the very political futures of the present status quo.

IN the case of the INC, there should be a wide