Ate Vi to frustrate ambitions of Puno and Roxas?

Certain sectors want Batangas Governor Vilma ” Ate Vi” Santos to run as vice president of PALAKA presidential bet Gilbert Gibo Teodoro, leaving Ronnie Puno, who was proclaimed veepee bet , in a quandary.

With a very shallow bench, it's natural for Lakas-KAMPI CMD to think or choose other people to prop up the sagging popularity of the administration party. This party would even dare field a Willie Revillame just to improve their numbers.

The question is---what is happening within PALAKA? Who is fuelling these talks of ousting Puno from the scene? Where is this thing called party loyalty?

That’s why Ronnie Puno called for a hasty press con late afternoon yesterday at Annabel's restaurant. That press con was a defensive gesture on the part of Puno, fueling even more speculations that there are, indeed, Lakas-Kampi partymembers critical of his political ambitions.

Ate Vi has said time and again, that she is not running. However, the political situation is still very fluid. Anything can happen. If Vilma throws her hat unto the political ring, that would surely muddle the political pond.

Was it just coincidental that Gibo and FVR were seen together in one sortie in Southern Luzon, without Puno? Vilma is very strong in that corner of the Philippines. A Vilma Santos run would cut short the political ambitions not just of Puno but more so, of Mar Roxas.

Liberal Party (LP) Vice presidential bet Mar Roxas, is, by far, the strongest VP candidate. A Vilma Santos run could wreck the Roxas train. And most probably, that is what Lakas-KAMPI CMD members are thinking—throw Vilma Santos unto the game and let Roxas scrump the scraps.

Sources say, Ronnie is also thinking of his political options, possibly going to the camp of former president Joseph Estrada. Puno’s statement yesterday saying that Erap is eligible to run ran counter to official Palace statements.

Is Puno thinking of deserting the very party he founded? Abangan!

FVR warns of coup plot & failure of elections

Former president Fidel V. Ramos yesterday virtually accused members of PMA Class 1978 of fomenting dissent and creating scenarios for a palace coup d'etat. Ramos made a speech yesterday at the gathering in Antipolo City.

Ramos warned the Arroyo administration and its hawks on going ahead of their plans, because PMA Class 1978 does not have a strong mass support in the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). He says, and NPR quotes, " PMA Class 1978 does not command support from the majority of the AFP"

Should they continue ahead of their plans, Ramos said this palace coup will fail. Ramos made the speech before US ambassador Kristie Kenney, who attended the MediaNation event.

Sources at the military says the PMA "Makatarungan" Class is planning to create a destabilizing scenario this September to justify the replacement of current AFP Chief of Staff General Victor Ibrado that will culminate in a palace coup in October of this year.

Yesterday, businessman Joey de Venecia III forewarned about a failure of elections when he said that the poll automation plan of SMARTMATIC-TIM is not fool proof and could result to a failure of elections.

Analysis of the Phil. Situation 3: The Political Bigwigs

There are talks that Speaker Prospero Nograles is under extreme pressure. His political party, Kampi, is pressuring him to change his stand against term extension. Kampi even threatens to oust him as Speaker via a coup d'etat. And the one allegedly orchestrating this, is none other than his friend, Ronnie Puno.

It's well known that DILG secretary Ronnie Puno (the chief architect of Kampi's expansion) belongs to the small group of Palace secretaries who favor Gloria's 2020 overtime plan. Puno is allegedly confident that the strength of the anti charter change movement is weak, therefore, this is the time to really go for blood and push charter change down the people's throat. Obviously, a consummate politician like Nograles sees differently and that explains why he's opposing Puno's group. For all his allegedly strong personality facade, Nograles is afraid to go against his former boss, Jose de Venecia Jr. Talks are afloat within the House that JDV is getting more and more support not only from civil society but also in the political scene that there are very strong perceptions that JDV is re-invigorating his political clout. Now, aside from Nograles, Albay Congressman Edcel Lagman already called it quits and already announced his readiness not to participate in the charter change push.

Now, I think that other charter change proponents will fall one by one prior and after December 12. Luis Villafuerte will definitely accede, so do Cebu Congressman Pablo Garcia. Even La Union Congressman Victor Ortega will succumb to public pressure once this accelerates a week before December 12. If these Congressmen fall, the rest will definitely follow. Unlike the Big Yoda (Jose de Venecia Jr.), these Congressmen are not made of sterner stuff. They, surely, will enter into compromises or deals if they see that the winds are changing and blowing in the other way.

At the Senate, almost everybody there are opposed to term extensions. However, it is important to note how Enrile will maneuver to neutralize future opposition to his post as Senate President. Enrile is neither opposition nor administration. He is his own man. He may act independently on his own to solidify forces against Gloria come decision time.

Meanwhile, traditional political parties are positioning themselves away from the ruling coalition and this will definitely show come December 12. Manny Villar's Nacionalista Party has just forged a tactical alliance with the JDV-FVR faction in Lakas. Danding has also given his blessing for NPC to join JDV-FVR. Will there be a formal announcement of the breakout of this Lakas faction from the Lakas-KAMPI ruling coalition? Quite expectedly, yes. Will there be a new dominant party prior to 2010? Yes. It will be the strong political front of Lakas-NPC-Nacionalista. Will this impact on the political future of other political parties? Yes. Who is the most immediate victim? It will be Gloria's KAMPI party who will definitely be marginalized once FVR announces a tactical alliance.

Now, this announcement will definitely be timed after a strong showing against charter change in December 12. Obviously, FVR has already wrote finis his relationship with Gloria and he knows how to counter the expected backlash from Lakas-KAMPI. It would be better if FVR's faction does this after the overthrow of Gloria.

In fact, many are saying that the reason for these sudden political re-alignments is to protect the status quo once a coup succeeds in toppling Gloria. At the surface, it may appear that the December 12 interfaith rally is just your normal rally but in the backstages, things are moving very fast against Gloria. The rally is just a facade to hide the backroom negotiations being done to effect a bloodless transition of power! More on this in the summary of these posts.

Analysis of the Phil. Situation: The Religious Groups

As I write this, there are now more than 70 people's organisations who already intimated their desire to participate in the December 12 interfaith rally. Rally organisers are expecting more groups and more people to join. As it stands, Manila Archbishop Cardinal Rosales has issued a statement in support of the rally. El Shaddai leader Mike Velarde already threw his hat into the derby, so does Jesus Is Lord Movement leader Ed Villanueva. Wagging tongues say, Velarde was urged by the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP). The question is--will the big Iglesia Ni Cristo group take active part as well? It's significant since the INC enjoys a wider constituency than El Shaddai and the Church is known for really delivering warm bodies (reminiscent of what they did in EDSA 1 and EDSA 2). As of the moment, there are some influential political leaders who are talking with some high INC officials. We still don't know if these talks will prosper.

I hate to say it but, I'll say it anyway--I shudder at the thought of a "spy" within the ranks of the anti-charter change and anti-Arroyo movement subverting this interfaith rally. I don't want to cast aspersions to the intentions of some of the religious groups, but, there is a possibility that one of them would, at the last minute, betray this. What would prevent, say El Shaddai leader Mike Velarde calling his flock not to attend the rally anymore since he and some Malacanang officials already made a "deal"? Remember that Presidential Political Adviser Gabby Claudio and Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita suggested a "clarificatory" meeting with Velarde anytime soon. The possibility of a Velarde/El Shaddai pullout is big. Think of this scenario:

This administration is known to subvert any big gathering such as this one. Everyone knows at the palace that if they fail to manage this huge anti-Gloria rally, this is bound to lead to something big, similar to the one in Thailand.

But, first things first---rally organisers should be able to gather as many people as possible to make this happen. To do just that, people should be psychologically prep up to go there. For people to go, they must think that this rally would lead to something wonderful afterwards. Meaning, it should be backed by the strongest and the most credible political and religious personalities. That's the psychology of the Filipino--he sides with whoever is the stronger force.

As of now, people think that this rally is REALLY big, because the political and religious personages are coming--former President Joseph Estrada, Velarde, Villanueva, Rosales, former government officials etc. Now, what if Malacanang maneuvers to destroy this formidable group? What if they enter into a compromise, say with the Catholic Church on the issue of Reproductive Health bill and Arroyo dangles her veto powers? Will we see Rosales (who has a niece inside the Palace) and Velarde (a brother, Mel, manages a government agency and you know the other interests) taking a back slide and instead of encouraging their people to go, they let them counter it instead? Again, I'm not casting aspersions against these people, but hey, this is politics. And in politics, anything can happen.

Backsliding has happened in the past. Velarde has backslided so many times already that I don't remember these incidences anymore. Remember, more than a religious preacher, Velarde is a savvy political operator. He's a survivor of many administrations. I just hope that Velarde knows where he really stands and has the balls to really take his commitments on this seriously. Otherwise, if Velarde will just use this as a negotiating tool, then, rally organisers should prepare for a Plan B to counter a possible backsliding.

Now, who actually controls Velarde and Rosales? Are they their own man? Velarde, as you know, is a consummate businessman. While, Rosales (who is sickly) is not someone with a solid political belief. This is the thing. More influential leaders, say Ramos, JDV and Estrada should exert their influence over these two leaders and assure them that something is really going to happen that would change the political landscape and affect the very political futures of the present status quo.

IN the case of the INC, there should be a wide

Symbol of Filipino Poverty Lives

Mang Pandoy, the symbol of Filipino poverty during FVR's time, died due to tuberculosis. After being used as FVR's poster boy during his administration, Mang Pandoy's body lies somewhere in Payatas, albeit without a decent funeral.

His death symbolized one thing--how government really thinks about the poor in our society. The Filipino poor is just worth a photo op.

He's only worth during corporate social responsibility (CSR) campaigns when companies invest huge money to "give back" what they stole from the people. He's only worth as ballot fodder. And when government needs warm bodies to counteract the Movement for Change. Such is the fate of the poor in this country.

I shudder at the thought of what had happened to those bangkang papel boys--Gloria's own poster boys. Will they suffer the fate of Mang Pandoy--neglected and thrown aside like a ragtag doll? Or will they rise up to the challenge of poverty and do something to change their lot?

Mang Pandoy's lungs collapsed, not because of the toxic fumes he's used to breathe. No. Mang Pandoy died ironically from a curable disease. TB is a pauper's disease. It just shows how government really treats us, poor people.

His death shows how alive poverty really is in this country.

The Fate of the Nora wannabe

The only superstar Nora Aunor is reportedly living in a dingy apartment somewhere in the United States. After having been charged with drug possession, the Filipina superstar is allegedly living off thru the kindness of friends and die-hard fans. What happened?

Nora, they say, has lost her luster as a star because of her own doing. Nora amassed so much wealth during her heyday that showbiz people emulated her. I think bad luck began when she (1) associated herself with known personalities addicted to substances and (b) when she dipped her fingers in the murky political pond. During the Erap administration, Nora was perceived to be very close to the disgraced leader and was disgraced herself by both pro-Erap and anti-Erap forces.

Now, Nora is out of the entertainment business and enjoying little or no love from the people who once loved her exceedingly. The younger generation does'nt know her and she, like the kundiman stars of old, risk obliteration from the pages of history.

Such is the fate of stars, whose luster brightens the night skies one night and fade the next.

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (there's a very good commentary by Abe Margallo in his site, the redherring. Check it out!), like Nora, seems to have suffered the same fate. She's president alright but enjoys the reputation of being the most unpopular among them. EDSA two thrust her into national prominence and acclaim but in the end, crucified her as one of the traitors of the Cause. (What Cause is it, I really don't know. The cause of the elite?)

Her luck started to ran out when Gloria (a) associated herself with big-time operators her husband brought to her administration, a corrupt gang of misfits and loafers and influence peddlers whose leeching powers are beyond satisfaction and (b) when she reportedly dipped her fingers into lucrative deals such as the ZTE deal, Northrail and even orchestrated the infamous Hello Garci operations.

Now, two years from now, Gloria will be out of the political scene with the prospect of being the most villified, the most hated and the most condemned Philippine political leader of all time. (Or if FVR is to be believed, someone will finish her term and she'll enjoy no immunity from the law).

Gloria, like Nora, will suffer the same fate. She'll be in the company of those whose mouths she fed during her time as president. And what a company that is! God gave her the chance to choose between good and evil, but, like Dinky Soliman said, she chose the dark side. Gloria chose to be in the wrong side of the universe and I think she already thought how she'll live out her last days on earth---with more money than her father, yet having the most infamous tag of all--a traitor, a corruptor and the Cause of the destruction of lives of millions of Filipinos.

This generation and the next will remember Gloria as the one who:

a. Propagated the notion that cheating is okey if it involves getting what you want.(case in point: Hello Garci)
b. Propounded the strategy that silence is best when faced with anomalies.(case in point: ZTE deal)
c. Gave money to the poor to appease them and hide the years of neglecting one's duties as president. (case in point: subsidy plan)
d. Blame others for a crisis which you yourself orchestrated so that you'll get a next shot at governance (case in point: ongoing economic crisis)
e. Punish those who meant meaningful change.

I am a historian and I now know how I will write those pages referring to Gloria's days and here's a probable headline:

"9 years without God" (Siyam na Taong Walang Diyos)

Oh, is this a Nora-Christopher de Leon movie? Weird coincidence, is'nt?

The Marginalization of FVR

In the military, there's this thing called "mopping operations." It's usually done after the police or military has defeated or annihilated their enemies.

Talks are rife that this looming Cabinet revamp aims to do just that--a mopping up operation to erase the last vestiges or memory of former president and self-proclaimed statesman Fidel V. Ramos from governance.

Yes, the once feared and the most respected Philippine president in the post-Marcos regime has been whittled down to size by his protege, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Before, FVR's words rang perfectly loud in the halls of Malacanang. In the 7 years of Gloria's rule, FVR's presence was not symbolic. Some quarters believe that he ran a shadow government, since many of Gloria's appointees and close-in advisers were either FVR's former officials or close to the former president. Despite being out of government and into retirement, many value the counsel of the cigar-chomping former leader who reigned in an era of prosperity prior to Erap's disastrous administration.

Now, FVR is just a mere shadow of his once influential self. Before, he commands respect among the military and the political elite. Today, he can't even unite his fragmented and weakened political baby. The reason is too obvious--FVR has lost considerable clout and power.

It began when Gloria's political machine, KAMPI started raiding LAKAS constituency in the 2004 elections. Puno's first attempt went pfft since most of the political titans of the country are unconvinced of Gloria's staying power then. The usurper was just not strong enough like FVR. Hence, the plan to marginalize Lakas went awry and momentarily ceased.

However, as Gloria weathers political storms one from another, it gave her the chance to consolidate her mass base. As she wins her political battles, Gloria grew stronger in Lakas while FVR's clout decreased. After 3 years, LAKAS went from being the most dominant party to a messed up, confused and discordant organization of old, worn-out politicians.

FVR vainly hold on to power by positioning himself as a kingmaker. Every destabilization event was exploited for his own interests. The last public show of affection was during the height of the ZTE scandal where FVR was heard shouting hosanna while thousands march at Ayala against Gloria. FVR tried to position himself as a kingmaker once more, since the last two destabilization attempts showed him as Gloria's Knight in Shining Armor.

That last one did not go the way FVR wanted it to be. Despite that PDA (public display of affection), FVR failed to parry the blows of KAMPI against Lakas. Gloria and her gang continued their recruitment efforts, part of an insidious plan to marginalize LAKAS before Gloria and her KAMPI allies start the cha-cha train.

When Gloria's men succeeded in destroying LAKAS party base, they then turned their sights on Jose de Venecia Jr. Weak as a baby, JDV went from the 4th most powerful man to relative obscurity. His propensity for politicking and compromise-building was exposed as genetic weakness and led to his humiliating defeat. Now, we don't hear anything from the man from Pangasinan, a victim of Gloria's ultimate quest to be the only strong leader in the country.

It's now the turn of Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita, perceived as one of FVR's closest, to get the hatchet. Gloria and her gang are planning for his immediate exile to Washington. The last of the Bushido gang, Ermita's departure from the halls of power is widely viewed as a direct assault against the once formidable FVR group.

After Ermita, there's no other major FVR general in Arroyo's Cabinet. Yes, there were talks of retiring general Hermogenes Esperon Jr. being "promoted" to replace Teodoro. However, Arroyo is not about to do that. She's a shrewd one. She knows that Esperon is FVR's hidden weapon and she'll not allow FVR's group to again take a step inside the palace.

With Ermita's departure almost certain, no other group holds Gloria hostage. Its now complete. Finished.

Gloria has complete command of the State--from the senior and junior military elites to the political, economic and judicial elites. Her clout has even extended to the barangays, mayors, and governors.

Her alliance with Cojuangco remained strong, suggesting a possible common presidential candidate in the person of either Loren Legarda or Noli de Castro. KAMPI has become the strongest and the most influential political party in the Philippines. It has now, the capability and the strength to dictate the terms of political battle come 2010. In fact, I am not surprised why the Senate suddenly turned 180 degrees for cha-cha. Most of those who signed Resolution 10 are pragmatists. They know that this is not the time to go against the existing political reality.

And what is that reality? That Gloria's gang has a very strong possibility of clinching an extended power trip beyond 2010. Mark my word. Gloria is now in the position to dictate the terms of engagement simply due to her purported strong survival instincts.

What now, my General? Do you still have an ace in your sleeves?

An Open Letter to Tabako, part 2

Dear Tabako,

I read that you're intending to go to the EDSA Shrine because, like Ed Malay told the media, "you're for the status quo for lack of a better alternative."

So, you believe that Arroyo is the best and only person to lead this country? You believe that given the thousands of intellectuals this country has, the thousands of excellent economists, the thousands of able-bodied and youthful and promising politicians around, you still believe that "there's no better alternative" and " Ramos is still for the status quo"?

So, all this vision of yours--Lakas Tao--is merely for propaganda, for positioning. You, who inspired millions of us to work hard, to work honestly and to work only for the benefit of the country during your administration, are still not convinced that there's no better alternative and its best to stick to Gloria? Despite what Gloria did against Lakas? Despite the political machinations that her allies did, wrecking your rainbow coalition and nearly transforming your once-dominant party into an insignificant shell?

So, there's no better alternative to what? Is there no alternative to a lying, stealing, cursing and killing administration? What is the alternative to this? Are you saying that you favor the cheating, the lying, the kidnapping, the chaos this administration has promoted all these years? Are you saying that we're still okey despite thousands being killed, millions more being violated of their basic rights and millions more being robbed of their hard-earned monies by ravenous and rapacious forces of Arroyo? Is this the vision of Ramos? Is this type of governance your standard, your vision?

I've admired you since you became president. You, Cory and Estrada are just three of the personalities whom I consider legitimate presidents and leaders after Marcos. It was under your administration that we achieved peace and economic stability. It was under your able stewardship that we, the people, felt safe. Yes, you had your share of intrigues. Yes, people accuse you of some graft cases. Yet, people can't deny that you had the vision, you are legit, and you worked hard to stabilize our situation.

I really shudder at the thought that you still tolerate the excesses of this administration. Have you now relegated yourself to that state during Marcos time when you kept your silence and exploded only at the last minute, when all things seemed to be ending? I hope you do that. I hope that you do the right thing sir and preserve your legacy for posterity. I still hold faith that you will.

Church to lead the search for Truth

"Their public confession[s] may be considered a providential event that may yet save our country from being hostage to scandalous and shady government deals that offend the common good and serve only personal, family and group interests,"--Archbishop Oscar Lagdameo, President, Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines(CBCP)

In a monumental act, the CBCP finally took a stand against the prevailing order. Archbishop Lagdameo yesterday articulated what the Church wanted to say for so long--the truth shall set us free. So now, the struggle against Arroyo has assumed a higher and deeper stage--that of struggling for the Truth.

If you look at it, however, it is not the Truth that would set us free. It is the struggle for Justice. We, the People now know how corrupt our system has become. We have realized that this corrupt and decrepit system is being perpetuated by those in power. And we already know that these people are just motivated by self-gain.

Now, we await the pronouncements of other religious groups, such as the Iglesia Ni Cristo, the influential El Shaddai and the protestant groups. They must also take the stand and announce their disgusts against Arroyo. Not doing so would mean complicity to these acts of the Palace mafia. Taking a silent stance would mean they accede to what is happening.

Former president Cory Aquino has just visited Lozada, signalling the formal start of active engagement against Arroyo. The president is hurt, says her close aide Merly Poblador who, by the way, is also involved in this controversy. While all of these are going on, we find Lakas slowly disintegrating, with Lakas stalwart and Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita encouraging former Speaker Jose de Venecia to relinquish his post as Lakas president to QC Mayor Sonny Belmonte. JDV's meeting with Erap, Ermita says, is a sign that JDV has totally burned his bridges with Malacanang. What it means though is JDV is now a persona non grata at the palace.

The only one left not protesting the callousness of the palace is former president and Lakas founder Fidel V. Ramos. I am sure that FVR will not tolerate this latest caper of the palace. Surely, FVR is not in cahoots with FG's group. However, it is perplexing to say the least, why FVR remains silent to all of these. There are some explanations:

1. FVR is assessing the entire situation. He knows that Lozada's appearance may provide the missing element in moves to oust Arroyo. Being the head of the CIA here in Asia, FVR is in the best position to assess the current standing of Arroyo vis-a-vis this war. What are the elements that would probably lead FVR to conclude that, indeed, Arroyo is in a losing or lost proposition:

a. Military support---This is crucial in any move against the palace. How many elements in the higher echelon of the military does Arroyo have and how many does not support her. Obviously, the scale right now is even, to say the least. Generals are divided. Arroyo does not have the entire loyalty of the military.

Esperon is a crucial element in all of these. His participation is very important to this struggle against immorality and corruption. If Esperon wants to save his ass or retire honorably, he must take a definitive stand against the creeping dictatorship and announce to the Filipino People his disgusts over this corruption. If Esperon remains silent, he is, in effect, condoning this blatant immorality and should be ousted from his post too.

b. Civilian support--It is quite obvious that Arroyo has lost a considerable segment of civil society, which includes the Church. This announcement of CBCP is a signal to Arroyo to take some definitive actions to appease the church. However, this I think is too late in the game. Whatever Arroyo would do now would be USELESS because its the responsibility of the church to assume a stand against immorality.

So now, there is no way out of this mess. As what happened last year, the only saving grace for Arroyo is DIVERSION. She will definitely order a special operations team to create another scenario of destabilization. What would be this:

1. Another bombing which this administration will attribute to terrorism. This is an effective diversionary tactic which they did last year with the Glorietta and Congress bombing.

2. An explosive battle in Mindanao, against using Jolo as a pretext.

3. A coup d'etat launched by Arroyo's own force. This is the most logical tactic. Arroyo will preempt these moves with her own moves. Either she'll use the Magdalo for this, or use another force.

SO ITS GOD SAVE THE QUEEN once more.

A Major War of the Titans

There's a major battle ahead. This war will clearly show who among the major political titans of this country will win the prize--that of being the top political leader of the Philippines. And it will not be long before all of these things will reach boiling point.

And who are the protagonists?

There are two major camps: the camp of Arroyo and the camp of FVR-Estrada-Aquino-JDV. Yes, this is confirmed. You may not believe it but these four major political players have now joined forces against Arroyo.

In an interview over ANC, JDV revealed that FVR called him up and relayed his all-out support for JDV. Estrada also called JDV. And it is not a secret that even Cory called JDV. What does these all mean?

Hundreds of their supporters, their lieutenants, and their political soldiers, especially those highly entrenched in the civil society sector will now move to further destabilize the administration of Arroyo. This is the signal for everybody against Arroyo to move. Analyzing the situation, it will not be long before we see the following events happening:

(a) Internal jockeying at the palace to remove JDV allies from their positions. With the exception of Justice Secretary Gonzales, groups within the palace will definitely try to oust Ermita from the Executive Secretary position. This is a certainty despite the pronouncement of support by Ermita. We will also see Ignacio Bunye's role as the presidential spokesperson marginalized since Bunye is also highly connected with JDV. There are other executive officers in the administration who are closely connected with JDV and FVR. They will definitely be ousted from their respective positions. Allies of Arroyo will do this in silence.

(b) There will be at least four (4) very close Cabinet members of Arroyo who will do a JDV--expose the anomalies of government. What is happening with Lozada is just an example. Even some advisers of Arroyo will distance themselves from the center of power and expose the anomalies under the guise of the moral revolution of JDV.

(c) Though the Church have been neutralized, I believe that in the next few weeks, we will see a totally different CBCP. Militant church workers will rise up against Arroyo, leaving the pro-Arroyo bishops marginalized.

(d) The revival of the civil society network is expected. With JDV-FVR casting their strength for the removal of Arroyo, it will not be long before their mass-bases, especially their supporters will also move to organize the masses more and conduct wide-spread mass mobilizations. The critical period will be in the next two to three weeks.

(e) Obviously, critical segments of the military will also give their lot to the JDV-FVR-Aquino-Erap alignment. However, I can't really read what they will do with Esperon. Either they isolate him or convince him to join the movement. I think that some groups close to Arroyo will move for the delimitation of Esperon since he is very close to FVR. I think as soon as some things are resolved, like if the rebel group of Lim etal agrees with some suggestions to "invite" Esperon to join them, then, we will see a repeat of EDSA Dos.

So, we are just counting the days when this war will happen between these titans. Either they do it within this month in celebration of EDSA 1 or they do it after the Holy Week. I surmise that a major event will happen within this month. For, if they fail to mass up and do what is necessary and expected of them to do against Arroyo this month, then, all is lost.

The effect of not moving against Arroyo now

If these groups highly critical against Arroyo fail to do their mission, these events will happen:

(1) Lakas will be raided dry. It will be a spent force. Lakas will just be a shell of a party. As the voting showed yesterday, more than 50 Lakas Congressmen supported the ouster move of JDV. We don't know what's happening at the grass-roots level but surely, Lakas will find itself irrelevant in the 2010 elections if it does not flex its muscles again and oust Arroyo.

(2) Arroyo will emerge as the strongest political force. Arroyo will use her enormous political power to decimate her detractors and enemies and build a totally dictatorial government where the center of power is cloistered around various mafia-like groups of like-minded interests.

Next Target: FVR

The next target will be FVR. Mark my word. The reason why Arroyo is also moving against FVR is fear. Likewise Arroyo wants to marginalize FVR since Tabako is still perceived as a king-maker and a force to reckon with. With FVR at the side of JDV, it will not be long before the former president moves against GMA.

Conspiracy of silence

Esperon says there’s a coup and he should be believed. In fact, says the teary-eyed Esperon, five ex-soldiers were arrested. Unknown to Esperon, three have been released. It was funny that Esperon should use these ex-soldiers. Imagine, accusing them of planning a coup when all the arresting officers can show are three rusty rifles. Yeah, three rifles for a coup? Come on Espy!

Eight hundred rallyists were prevented from going to the EDSA Shrine. Farmers are also barred from Mendiola, the traditional gathering place of those who want change. Manila mayor Alfredo Lim rejected earlier requests for militants to go to Mendiola on January 22 to commemorate the Mendiola massacre. Militants are dreaming. How would they be able to convince the one who actually headed the team which mowed the farmers down in the first place?


FVR, JDV and Kenney were conspicuously absent today in Malacanan. A palace factotum says, Kenney is in Zamboanga, playing tourist guide with two US legislators. I just don't buy it why a Malacanan functionary would assume the role of a US spokesman for a diplomat. It makes no sense. There was no explanation nor alibi given on behalf of FVR and JDV.

Civil society groups are keeping their mouths shut about these destabilization. However, its odd why the confirmation of a coup came from an unlikely source, Joma. Joma said that Arroyo would not finish her term because groups are out to get her head.

If I base my observations on what's going on, it points to just one thing: there's a revolutionary situation. Though there's a conspiracy right now of these groups on what their motivation really lies, it seems that their actions point to a confirmation of earlier reports. I remember of a similar strategy used against Erap in 2001. Erap was also saying how strong and how stable his position was until the forces of civil society overwhelmed him, forcing him out of power.

COPA is silent now. Even other groups known to oppose Arroyo. Groups seem to be keeping their aces close to their chests. This means that they're dead serious and fully capable of toppling this regime.

Unveiling Arroyo's Hidden Plan

Now, it's all beginning to make sense. That trip to meet Europe's royalties exposed the hidden desires of the First Family to be the Philippine's number one royalty. While Filipinos' busy themselves making preparations for the holidays, Arroyo unleashed her lapdogs in Congress to file a resolution calling for a Constitutional Convention. Obviously, Arroyo wants to extend her term through constitutional change of governance. That only means that Arroyo wants to rule beyond 2010. This explains why Arroyo brought 40 or so legislators to Europe to show to them their futures if they support a constitutional monarchical setup under an Arroyo constitutional monarchy.

A Constitutional Monarchy?

Yes, a constitutional monarchy. A change in government shall allow Arroyo to run again in Pampanga. With Arroyo's Kampi and Lakas allies, there's a big possibility of Arroyo being elected as Prime Minister. IF JDV continues to hope for this, he's mistaken. Arroyo's lust for power remains boundless and insatiable. She wants to be the sovereign power until, maybe, her death.

No Elections in 2010?

That's what we know. Why would Adelmiro Amante and Vic Ortega initiate such moves without the expressed blessing of their principal, who is Arroyo? Surely, these stooges made this move

Will this happen?

Yes. Chacha is part of the grand strategic plan to ensure Arroyo's rule as sovereign. Damn Roxas, Damn Ramos, Damn Erap, Damn Aquino, Arroyo is the name to beat when it comes to political power!

And why will this happen? Because the AFP and the PNP (Esperon and Razon) remain Arroyo's stooges and lapdogs. They remain her knights in shining armor.

Too late a hero

However, more than this is the fact that the opposition remains fragmented due to their individual interests. Ramos already told this administration that chacha was the best option in 2005. His advice then was not heeded because Arroyo has'nt decimated the ranks of her enemies back then.

Now that her enemies' ranks have been fractured and debilitated, Arroyo and her loyal knights are now bold enough to force chacha down the throats of every Filipino.

Arroyo--No. 1 Most Corrupt Philippine Leader

A survey by a reputable firm shows that most Filipinos think or perceive Arroyo as the number one most corrupt Philippine leader this country has ever produced. Malacanan tried to divert the attention of the people by (1) defending Arroyo's corrupt actions by saying that she inherited problems from her predecessors (2) she is working to make the economy better and (3) different government agencies are trying very hard to prosecute grafters in her government.

Bull. What crap!

Arroyo has been in power since 2001, or six years already. Whatever problems she inherited from Estrada, Ramos or Aquino should have been solved already. If Malacanan says that these bad things happening are just "inherited" stuff, then, this shows how inefficient a leader Arroyo is.

Second, as I wrote here, the economy benefits from the growth of the regional economy. Three things contribute to the continued survival of the economy. One, the billions of OFW monies being infused every month. Two, the weakening state of the US dollar which redounds to the benefit of the peso. And third, the very nature of the economic markets in the Philippines itself.

However, how would the Arroyo administration explain the continuing decrease of foreign direct investments in the Philippines? How would they explain the worsening reputation of the Philippines as a viable investment site?

Lastly, Malacanan'g defense saying that government agencies are trying to prosecute grafters to the best of its abilities--its full of crap. Have they explained fully who's responsible for the ZTE mess? Have they prosecuted Abalos and FG? Did they prosecuted the ones responsible for the overpriced sale of coal to Napocor worth 500 million pesos? Did Arroyo ever lifted a finger arresting and booking grafters in the BIR, Customs and different government agencies? A million times no!

Conditions are ripe for a coup; JDV stands to lose everything

Manolo may not believe that a coup is imminent but I say again, the conditions which justify a military takeover exist. Compared with 1989, 1990, 2004 and 2006, the present conditions are ripe for a government run by military leaders. It may not be apparent, given that "mutinous" soldiers, as what Manolo wrote in his blog: www.quezon.ph, submitted themselves to the legal processes, nonetheless, the "acts" being shown right now by the United Forces and the rebel detainees bear uncanny, pre-conceived actions.

Today, the officers being tried walked out of their hearing, in defiance with the way they are being treated in the court martial.(see Ellen Tordesillas blog). Legislators who filed an impeachment complaint against Arroyo also walked out of the justice committee hearings. These are, obviously, symbolic acts of defiance which is expected to lead into something more than merely walking out of "illegal" proceedings. It shows that people are manifesting overt acts of dissent. These pockets of resistance do not happen overnight. These are planned actions.

Do I believe that these actions are just "isolated", "autonomous" incidents? No. Do I believe that their actions are in someway connected and coordinated? Yes. The mere fact that these groups operated under the new name "United Forces", says much about the solid desire of the people behind them (especially those financing these actions) to really oust Arroyo.

I do agree with one observation of Manolo though that Arroyo might survive all these events and course smoothly to 2010. This may happen for three (3) reasons: First, groups fail to create conditions necessary for the growth of a critical mass. Doronila is right in saying that there is no critical mass at this point. Yet, we can't discount the possibility that, days or weeks right now, a critical mass might develop. At this point, acts of the United Forces fail to animate the emotions of even the middle classes. What do these things indicate? In a traditional purview, it may mean that people are tired of going and marching to EDSA. As I've said, surveys show that people are quite tired of the constitutional, EDSA way that they would welcome an extra-constitutional means of ousting Arroyo.

Second, rebels fail to court a sizeable number of "recruits" to stage an act of defiance among military ranks. Do we see a repeat of a "We Belong" at the PMA this homecoming? Maybe. Or maybe not. It depends whether there are still idealists within the Academy who have the "balls" so to speak to do what their predecessors did in 1985. Lastly, if traditional politicians decide not to join these actions. Its unfortunate that Senators Escudero and Cayetano continue keeping their silence despite what Philippine Star columnist Willy Esposo described our situation as "pre Civil War" times. Escudero and Cayetano are still "star-struck" so to speak; still overjoyed by their "victories". Or, to make a better description, still in rapture on their success in deceiving the people. Those who speak out now comes from unexpected politicians--Roxas and Pangilinan--who were previously accused of being pro-Arroyo.

Arroyo's fate now depends on how weak or how strong her enemies are at the moment. These groups need a new strategy to oust Arroyo. If they use the old EDSA formula, they may not succeed in what they want. Worst, they may lose momentum because their ranks remain weak.

If these groups procrastinate and fail to seize the moment, they may yet see a stronger GMA emerging from the seige unscathed. A stronger GMA might not entertain the idea of giving up power come 2010. This is a very strong possibility given the posturings being shown by Arroyo and the acts being done by her allies especially in Congress and in the business community.

If this happens, I say to the soldiers detained there in Tanay--kiss your liberties goodbye. I also say these to the groups opposing GMA--be prepared to lose a sizeable chunk of your constituencies and prepared to be dispensable, powerless, and irrelevant groups next year until 2010.

JDV is the loser

As I wrote in previous entries, the clear loser of all of these is JDV. JDV stands to lose everything not because of his son but because of his own wrongdoing. He remains a fool, compromising his strong position and continuing to support his enemy. Look at what he did today at the WBC convention. The video of ABS-CBN says it all--JDV sat miles apart GMA. Yet, when the media interviewed him, he told them the say trapo way of courtsying GMA. What a dumb move. GMA's allies are attacking him left and right, her operators slowly destroying him in Congress, yet, JDV remains unresponsive. JDV is certain to lose the speakership. And this is NOT a ruse. Events have shown that actions are being taken to isolate and weaken JDV. If JDV does not act now, he will surely lose the speakership to Fuentebella, a known Danding crony.

Winners

I say again, JDV is out. If reports are true that the reason why the tripartite groups of GMA, FVR and JDV agreed to keep their coalition intact was the promise of GMA to assist FVR and JDV to a transition from presidential to parliamentary, the two elders should be ready to lose their shirts. GMA does not have the will to court widespread revolt if she tries this. I say this again, GMA is not ready to rock the boat further by forcing the parliamentary proposition to the people. It would be foolhardy for the two Pangalatoks to trust GMA to do this. The obvious winners now, in 2010 and even in post-2010 will surely be Kampi, GMA and FG. Mark my word.

Open Letter to FVR

Dear Mr. President:

I am writing this letter because me and my family cannot seem to understand why you and your pangalatok buddy, JDV, decided to patch things up with Mrs. Arroyo. After making us excited when you spoke out against Arroyo, everybody felt that you’re suddenly regaining your old self, that principled man whom everybody loved back then in 86. Now, with this publicized “kiss and make up” picture with Arroyo, everybody now thinks that you’re just for show.

Yes, Mr. President. I am one among thousands who admired you. During your time, we experienced a brief moment of security and prosperity. You governed with honesty, with integrity, with vision and with passion. You made us feel proud again of being Filipinos. During your tenure, we had an efficient government. It was not without its problems, we know. Compared with Erap’s and now, with Arroyo’s, yours had the promise of being considered great by history.

Now, you with your signature thumbs-up sign are beginning to bore us. You and your posturings of being a statesman are starting to annoy us. You and your travels are signs that everything about you now is just that, a show. Admit it, you are just a shadow of your old self. And it’s surprising that you and your close advisers have chosen the path least taken— that of siding with the enemy of the people.

Were you ill-advised? Were you gullible? Are you now senile? Are you now blind, Mr. President? Or, have you lost your heart? You know what’s happening. You know how this administration continues to plunder the public coffers. You know how Arroyo continues to inflict harm upon us, your people.

Mr. Ramos, you are nowhere near the quality of your mentor, Mr. Lee Kuan Yew. You are not made of the stuff Mr. Lee is made of. It is quite unfortunate because Mr. Lee did not make a career out of the military, but you did. By condoning the sins of Mrs. Arroyo, you now partake of the dirty food she’s used to eat for more than six years now.

Mr. President, are you not ashamed of what you did? You’re supposed to be the leader of your generation. You’re supposed to be the model citizen of your generation. Now, what legacy would you leave for your grandchildren and your children’s children? What things will you now claim to bequeath us, your people? That we are supposed to side with the grafters, the corrupt people of our lifetime? That we’re supposed to forgive those who rob us of our monies, of our liberties, of our futures? Are we supposed to give our thumbs-up to those who kill principled people, to those who squander our hard-earned monies and give to those devils in Congress?

Mr. President, you have little time left. You’re what, seventy plus years old? Why did you decide to smear your clean record by continuing to side with Arroyo? Be cursed, Mr. Ramos. Cursed be the land you stand on.

Sincerely,

On the Issue of the Caretaker Government: My Answer to Ronin

A colleague in the blogger community commented on my proposition on the caretaker government. He says that this proposition poses more questions than answers. How will this caretaker government come about? If the forces at work conduct an extra-constitutional exercise, will the people accept it? If its through peaceful means, will it bring the expected results, that of meaningful change?

Legitimate questions demand legitimate answers.

Why Caretaker Government?

First, the damage wrought by the Arroyo administration on government institutions will require years of repair. The people's trust and confidence in the state's vital institutions has been destroyed. Surveys upon surveys reflect the people's collective disdain and mistrust on their leaders. This "virus" of distrust has infected the entire political machinery, from the barangay level to the highest post of the land.

For the State to survive a growing movement towards its abolition, the status quo needs a fresh set of faces to replace the old idiots. No one among our present set of civilian leaders show capability of leading the changes needed in our present times. Arroyo's time has come. She bungled the golden opportunity to be our shining hope. Instead of providing us guidance and vision, she led us to perdition. Obviously, we need her replacement immediately before our country turn from worse to worst.

Arroyo's replacement

Why a council instead of going to the constitutional route of succession? The reasons are obvious: no one is willing to take the reins of governance. The constitutional successor, Vice President de Castro risks a coup d'etat if he takes on the role of president. The elite disdain him despite having endeared himself to the masses. He has a big, booming voice but no vision to offer the people. His record as a corrupt mediaman still resonates among the people, despite years of being in the civil service.

Senate President Manny Villar is perceived by many as a compromiser and big businessman with obvious corporate goals than governance. Speaker Joe de Venecia's image as a compromiser and traditional politician still rings true, what with his public pronouncements of loyalty to the people's enemy Gloria.

Chief Justice Reynato Puno just rejected calls for him to lead the caretaker government. So, obviously, there is no other constitutional leader than can succeed Arroyo in the event of an ouster campaign. This leads us to answer the second question posed by Ronin.

Extra-Constitutional means

Since there is no other option left, those who thirst for changes in governance should accept the possibility of an extra-constitutional means for change. Why? Because given the circumstances and the present state of affairs, this option is clearly justified. Should these forces fail in their mission again of ousting Arroyo, we see the prospect of a prolonged conjugal dictatorship that would paralyze government for another three to five years. I will not mention anymore the effects of this in terms of national security, business and the like since I wrote about these things in this blog some weeks ago.

Composition of the Caretaker government

Political reality shows that no civilian leader is willing to take the enormous task of nation-building. This is a tacit admission by the civilian sector of failure to govern. Hence, this leads us to presume that the most logical set of leaders must come from the idealistic sector of the military. There must be a group of idealistic officers who will stand up and fight. They must be led by a charismatic leader who will manage the affairs of the state while the government is in its formative stage.

A senior council of national elders must be formed to provide direction to this set of military leaders. This council must be composed of previous presidents, like FVR. FVR, despite what people think of him, is the most fitting leader to lead this country again. Joe de Venecia is wrong when he said that Arroyo must do a Lee Kuan Yew and lead the cleansing of government. Arroyo does not have the competency nor the political mettle to lead a moral revolt. Among our set of leaders and elders, only FVR has the vision, the experience and the knowledge to lead this country with the idealistic military.

Another important component of this government must come from the academic community. The Philippines has hundreds of experts, specialists and technical people to lead this country to greatness. These technocrats and academics must bond together and assume responsible posts in government. The first mission of these academics should be the creation of a national ideology that would govern the country in the next decades.

The next important component of a caretaker government must emanate from legitimate civil society leaders and non-government organisations. These people must provide the government of their knowledge about the people's real needs so that policies are tempered and suits the masses. They provide the needed mass base for a caretaker government to survive any attempts by counter-revolutionaries.

Time frame

The caretaker government should lead this country for three years. Its mission should be the repair of the state's damaged institutions. Should forces fail again in their mission of ousting Arroyo, the ruling clique will again be emboldened and strengthened to think that they can rule this nation into infinitum, to the detriment of all.

The Crumbling Bastille

I wrote here two nights ago that the political situation has been muddled by the pardon of Erap. My presumption is we cannot really say where Erap's loyalties are. However, his statement below says much about his present stand--he's backing away from calls for Arroyo to quit. This is expected of him, since, Estrada is really not much of a strategist. If we are to review his credentials, he's (1) a media creation and (2) he does'nt have the vision. Likewise, Estrada, like Arroyo, are flanked by bumbling idiots. Obviously, this statement says much of the quality of people he likes to be surrounded with.

If I am Erap, I would distance myself from all these people and just keep silent. He does'nt know the real situation. He does'nt realize the impact of his statements, one for those who allied with him during his incarceration and two for the millions who still idolize him. Releasing these kinds of statements harm him because SHOULD THE ANTI-GMA FORCES SUCCEED, HE MIGHT FIND HIMSELF IN JAIL AGAIN.

I think Erap was advised to issue these kinds of statement in reaction to the statement by former FVR that his release was a "calamity". Erap considers FVR his enemy and by siding with Arroyo, he thinks that he can save himself from the clutches of FVR. He's wrong.

My proposal to Erap is this--quit now while you're still free. Do not frustrate or serve as a stumbling block in all these efforts at ousting Arroyo. You don't have a full grasp of political reality.

Net of discussion--do not side with the crumbling Bastille. You might find yourself incarceration yet again. And this time, you might find yourself sharing a cell with his benefactor.

Estrada backs away from Arroyo-quit call
Rejects bid to set up transition government

By Jocelyn Uy
Inquirer
Last updated 02:52am (Mla time) 10/29/2007
Most Read
MANILA, Philippines -- Former President Joseph Estrada Sunday distanced himself from fresh calls for the resignation of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo sparked by the pardon she had granted the disgraced leader convicted of plunder.

“It’s the people -- the poor sector which is the largest part of our society who should choose and decide who they want to run or replace the government, not the few elitists and the churchmen,” Estrada told the Philippine Daily Inquirer, parent company of INQUIRER.net, by phone.

On Friday, the ousted leader was given a new lease on life and walked out of his sprawling Tanay, Rizal, vacation house, where he had spent most of the six years he had been under house arrest, a free man after accepting executive clemency.

The pardon, which both the Estrada and Arroyo camps cited as a step toward national reconciliation, has triggered calls among civil society groups and political and church leaders for the removal of the President and the setting up of a junta to be headed by Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno.

A Puno-led transition government also does not appeal to Estrada, who said that the nation would only tumble into the same pitfalls of the military-backed uprising in 2001 that “unconstitutionally” removed him from power.

Estrada noted that it was Puno who “invented” his constructive resignation, an act that violated his constitutional rights as the then President.

“Haven’t they learned from their mistakes during the Edsa Dos? Our country has gone from bad to worse [since then]. I don’t believe that these elitists and church leaders should decide the fate of our country. It’s the majority who should have a say now,” he stressed, strongly indicating his aversion to another people power.

No deal

But he reiterated that there were no strings attached or an agreement forged between him and the administration in his acceptance of executive clemency.

“There was no deal. I thanked her last Friday because it is the right thing to do as our Filipino values dictate,” he explained.

Speaking like the true “father of the masses” his supporters hold him up to be, Estrada pointed out that the elite should never dictate to the poor Filipinos who have been helping sustain the government through their dollar remittances from abroad.

‘Hello Garci’

Estrada himself had called for the resignation of Ms Arroyo at the height of last year’s “Hello Garci” controversy which suggested that she rigged the 2004 presidential elections. She has denied any wrongdoing.

Like former President Corazon Aquino, Estrada had clamored for a transition government to replace the Arroyo administration and establish a system of governance designed for systematic changes and radical reforms to ensure lasting solutions to poverty and corruption that have tormented the nation.

He had even expressed a willingness to lead the transition government while it was looking for a permanent replacement.

Not seeking public office

The 70-year-old Estrada Sunday repeated his earlier statement that he would no longer run for any government office and would rather spend his remaining years in the “full service” of the poor.

But when asked if he would entertain thoughts of entering politics again in the future, he replied, “It’s up to the people to decide.”

He also expressed no inclination in joining the National Anti-Poverty Commission, saying that his attention was more focused on linking up with nongovernment organizations to pursue his pro-poor programs.

Among the projects he cited was the “white revolution,” which he had initiated as then senator by authoring the Philippine Carabao Act to propagate the animal to ensure more production of quality milk for farmers and poor schoolchildren.

He mentioned visiting the first carabao center in the Science City of Muñoz in Nueva Ecija province, which he planned to replicate in the Visayas and Mindanao with the help of former Sen. Leticia Shahani.

“The government now has competent people in the antipoverty commission. Now, I would like more to work with the private sector,” said Estrada, who had spent his first Sunday as a free man with his grandchildren.

Strategic Masterstroke

Arroyo made a masterstroke when she pardoned Erap--it removed a major force in their ranks and effectively divided them. However, the situation is not hopeless. Erap can still undermine Arroyo. I mean, Erap can still regain whatever credibility he has with the people by just one strong statement of withdrawal of support from her. That would be sweet justice should Erap do this. Anyway, the papers have been signed and there's nothing really that Arroyo can do at this time about it. She can't file another case against Erap. The question that everybody is asking is--why is Erap seem so fearful of Arroyo?

Could it be that he was threatened by Arroyo of perdition should he not sign the pardon? Could it be that Erap is really not interested with politics anymore? Could it be that Erap has "learned his lesson" and that he knows for a fact that his force is just a "mirage"?

The political situation is still fuzzy at the moment. Nobody can really say where all of these things are headed. One thing is sure though--Erap and Arroyo have cancelled themselves out. They have one common enemy=FVR. It remains to be seen whether FVR still have the force to ram against them. I believe at this time, the accounting of forces have already been made and both camps know their true strength. The question is--will we see a change of government this November?

Observation on the online petition

Based on a reading of the People's Pulse, this online petition will amount to nothing. The people does'nt want a snap elections. Its a waste of time and money. What they support though, is a caretaker government. The concept of a caretaker government seems to resonate loudly among the people and I believe that should this happen, it will be supported by the people.

The caretaker government should rule this country until 2010. By that time, everything would have calmed down and a new constitution would have been in place. That's the way to go. The only question is--are these forces really determined to go all out against Arroyo? We will see in the coming weeks.

ZTE mess being used to agitate troops? Aw c'mon!

I don't believe that destabilizers are that foolish in using the ZTE deal as a propaganda tool for another shot at freedom. The ZTE deal is obviously, a very weak issue for anti-GMA groups to use against the administration. Indeed, there is an on-going recruitment among various troops, as stated in news reports and confirmed even by AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Esperon. But, I don't think the soldiers will be convinced to join the destabilizers just because Malacanan is enmessed with the business deal of two big-time groups.

What I do know is this---if and when groups do spill into the streets against this administration, it will do so because things have reached boiling point. Yes, I believe there is now a revolutionary situation. However, this situation has not been brought up by the ZTE deal. No. This situation arose due to the following factors:

1. The July Basilan incident which led to the deaths of more than 50 soldiers.
2. Extra-judicial killings perpetuated by the state against its perceived enemies. This issue has resonated to the international community, making it very viable for anti-GMA groups to solicit support from foreign entities.
3. Uneven playing field in the business arena. This ZTE deal reflects the propensity of this administration to favor its cronies. Hence, local businessmen feel threatened especially the entry of Chinese products into the market. This further bolsters the ranks of anti-GMA groups.

Warning to this administration: the perceived silence of the middle class does not mean acquisence. It only means three things: (a) there is an undercurrent of dissent against the prevailing elite but has not managed to manifest itself into concrete action (b) disorganization and division on the part of anti-GMA groups and (c) lack of resources for mobilization. If these things are met and there is a right condition, then, the possibility of a power grab is high.

Possible Scenarios

1. Withdrawal of support from key officials allied with JDV-FVR-JoAL
2. Withdrawal of support from key military personnel, both active and retired
3. Possible clash between loyalist and anti-GMA forces
4. Possible flight in a foreign country by GMA and her clique.
5. Establishment of a revolutionary government (transitional)

ZTE mess being used to agitate troops’

By PERSEUS ECHEMINADA
The Philippine Star

Transportation and Communications Secretary Leandro Mendoza said Saturday groups out to destabilize the Arroyo administration are using the controversy on the national broadband network (NBN) deal with China’s ZTE Corp. to “agitate” government troops.

“The issue has become highly politicized that it’s now being circulated in the military camps to agitate the troops,” he said in a chance interview with The STAR in a restaurant at the Quezon Memorial Circle.

Mendoza said no less than Armed Forces chief Gen. Hermogenes Esperon Jr. has confirmed that there are indeed recruitment activities in military camps.

However, he said this move is doomed as the people are already fed up with moves to destabilize the government.

“Any attempt to oust President Arroyo at this point in time will not get support from the people. We advise these groups to wait for the 2010 elections,” he said.

He said personalities linked to the oust-GMA movement are the same people who are now trying to ride on the NBN controversy to trigger unrest on the streets.

He said the allegations of bribery and graft and corruption are now pending before the Office of the Ombudsman, while the issue on the validity of the contract is also pending before the Supreme Court.

“Let us uphold the rule of law, instead of getting out of the legal process,” he said.

Mrs. Arroyo suspended the NBN project indefinitely Saturday upon Mendoza’s recommendation. Also suspended was the Cyber Education program of the Department of Education.

The military and the police also see the NBN controversy as part of a move to undermine the Arroyo administration.

Sources in the military and police intelligence communities bared this following their threat assessment meeting held somewhere in Makati City Friday night.

“What started as a plain and casual quarrel among two business rivals had already transformed into a political controversy that now tends to undermine the security of the state,” one source said.

Meanwhile, talk of destabilization sent military and police officials jumping from their sleep Friday night following supposed disturbances at the Fort Bonifacio residence of former Army and AFP chief, retired Gen. Lisandro Abadia.

However, military and police intelligence operatives dispatched to Abadia’s place found nothing unusual in the area.

“It’s all disinformation,” an intelligence officer later told his superiors.

However, the AFP, not wanting to get caught with its pants down, called in two more battalions of troops to Metro Manila while the Philippine National Police deployed the Special Action Force (SAF) supported by several tanks in Camp Crame.

Army safe from recruitment

Maj. Gen. Jose Barbieto, commanding officer of the Army’s 4th Infantry Division based in Cagayan de Oro City, gave assurance that his men would not entertain any recruitment offers to destabilize the government.

Barbieto said his men are busy on counter-insurgency operations and vigilant against Abu Sayyaf terrorists that they can no longer entertain such illicit offers.

The 4th ID recently inked a pact with the PNP’s Northern Mindanao regional office for the police to have a more active role in counter-insurgency operations.

Barbieto said he does not need any loyalty checks on his troops. “My soldiers have always followed the Constitution and the chain of command,” he said.

Marines ‘vulnerable’

However, Marine Commandant Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ben Dolorfino said institutional cracks continue to put the Marine Corps as a vulnerable target for recruitment in any destabilization plot.

Dolorfino cited past events where Marines were involved in coup attempts.

“That is contrary to what our forefathers in the Marines have taught us… to be the cutting edge in the military organization,” he said.

Dolorfino, who stayed overnight in Basilan last Tuesday and in Sulu on Thursday, his first out-of-town visit since he was appointed as Marine commandant, wasted no time in weaving the cracks affecting the organization.

In an apparent confirmation of misbehavior, some of the Marine ground personnel commented behind his back that their commandant should have brought canned goods and other food supplies rather than notes and papers.

Dolorfino said that since the guilty verdict on former President Joseph Estrada for plunder, text messages of destabilization and recruitment have been circulating. – With Jaime Laude, Mark Francisco and Roel Pareño