Will 2009 be a lucky year for Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo? Will she finally get her wish to be able to extend her term at least, a year? Sources say Arroyo and her henchmen, especially Ronnie Puno, want the elections deferred for at least a year, meaning, make it 2011. That's their minimum desire. Why? For three reasons. One, they would want the Constitutional Convention formed by that time and they would use this argument to bolster their case before Congress re-opening on January 20. Second, that would also provide more funds for the ruling party and third, that would coincide with the formation of a bigger economic block led by Arroyo. Question---will 2009 be Arroyo's luckiest year as yet?
The country faces extreme challenges next year, especially in the export industries sector. As early as August 2008, the export industries have suffered tremendous blows due to low job orders. The US market has begun slowing down at that time and it continues to further slide. After the US meltdown, other European markets and even the Japanese market fell like dominoes.
Next will definitely be the tourism-related services industry. With more Westerners opting to save rather than splurge on a holiday, the tourism industry will likely slow down as well. I have'nt seen the World Tourism Association (WTA) projections but this will most likely be down by about 15 to 20% at the most.
Now, depending on what US President-elect Barack Obama will announce on January 20, 2009, the BPO sector will continue its robust growth. Why? Even if Obama decides to encourage US companies to just make their BPO in the mainland instead of offshore, more companies will still decide to continue their overseas operations because it is still cheaper to operate a BPO here than in the US. Obama will likely find a way to exploit other sectors in their economy instead of dipping his hands in the global BPO market.
Another critical sector would be the small and medium sized entreprises. If government, especially the BSP will hesitate to further widen the credit markets, it would put the entire economy to further risk since SME's rely on banks and government financial institutions for their capital infusions. For example, in my case, I want my own business but I lack capital. Will government extend its loan portfolio further to cover those in-between job cases like myself?
I went to SSS thru the help of its very efficient SVP Susie Bragante and found out that yes, I can get a loan but I need to land another employment to secure one. Whatthe? Its policy. Well, if I elect to continue my SSS membership, I have to pay a sum. Fine. I'll pay it. But, before I can loan, I have to wait for a month just to post that payment. Whatthef..ck! Paging SSS head Secretary Romulo Neri. You need to create another loan portfolio for the following:
1. Those SSS members who want to start their own businesses but lack capital and resigned from their jobs because they want to be entrepreneurs. And SSS should AT LEAST be able to give them the maximum loan amount equivalent to three times their former monthly pay. Look, Madame Arroyo urges everyone to be an entrepreneur and when we, citizens, do want to make our dreams come true, government fails in its obligation to at least extend us some loan.
2. OFWs. (I think government already provided 2 billion pesos worth of loanable funds for displaced OFWs. By the way, these OFWs are twice displaced--when they went abroad, they are classified as economically displaced. When they're busted from their jobs, they went displaced again.)
The secret so that we all would survive the global economic crisis in 2009 would be the following:
1. Expansion of credit facilities
2. Lowering of BSP interest rates
3. Lowering of BSP credit rates
4. Expansion of government assistance to SME's
You said:
ReplyDelete“Will 2009 be a lucky year for Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo? Will she finally get her wish to be able to extend her term at least, a year? Sources say Arroyo and her henchmen, especially Ronnie Puno, want the elections deferred for at least a year, meaning, make it 2011. That's their minimum desire. Why?"
May I ask who is the source for this? Or it’s just your conjecture? Or it is just as any newscrafter spin that always uses the word “sources who don’t want to be identified” but in reality there’s really nobody there who can be identified?
“For three reasons. One, they would want the Constitutional Convention formed by that time and they would use this argument to bolster their case before Congress re-opening on January 20.”
Your conjecture again? I can’t help to compare your post with the below op-ed from Manila Standard:
“The first question, of course, is whether or not the public anger being whipped up against a supposed term-extension bid is based merely on speculation and suspicion rather than fact.
In short, is the effort at building up an angry frenzy merely part of a term-extension scare?
The question cannot be helped. The fact is that there is no concrete move to extend the President’s term. The fact is there is merely a move to gather support for the conversion of Congress into a Constituent Assembly so that certain amendments—particularly those that pertain to foreign investments—can be made.
The fact is—and this is what the anti-cha-cha groups are not saying—that the Constituent Assembly cannot become a reality without the assent of the Senate. And since the Senate has already made clear its stand that it will not back a consa, then why are some Senate personalities helping fuel an apparent term-extension scare?
The fact is that the House of Representatives, on its own, cannot push for a Constituent Assembly, much less inject changes into the Constitution solely on its own. But that appears to be what the anti-cha-cha groups are trying to make the public believe—that the House, surreptitiously, can do the changes.
And that we might just wake up one day with the President’s term already extended beyond 2010. Ridiculous.
That is a legal, constitutional and practical impossibility.”
I'm just curious.
I might as well add this from the same op-ed -
ReplyDelete" Here is another fact that the anti-cha-cha groups are not telling the public in the wake of an apparent effort to whip up a term-extension scare.
We are not being told that any and all proposed changes to the Constitution, whether injected by Congress convening itself as a Constituent Assembly or by a Constitutional Convention, would still require voters’ approval via a plebiscite.
Changes to the Charter do not happen simply because some solons or a Constitutional Convention wants them. They can be done only if and when we approve them through a plebiscite.
Assuming for the sake of argument that a consa or a con-con does materialize and an amendment to the Constitution extending the term of some elective officials is made. All we have to do is nix it, junk it, and disapprove it in the ensuing plebiscite.
So, there is a peaceful, democratic and civilized way to approach this whole Charter change issue.
No need for expletives. No need for a civil war as some solons warned."
Hi Trosp,
ReplyDeleteMy source is my friend inside Arroyo's inner circle. This friend of mine is privy to the goings-on in the Palace. Send me your email address Trosp, and I'll reveal his identity to you.
On your question that it is a legal and constitutional anomaly or a practical impossibility has basis. Yes, Congress can't do the change themselves, since, as we interpreted it, the provision in Article 17 of the 1987 Constitution is very clear--whenever there are proposals for change in the charter, it must be done by Congress voting as a block. That is our interpretation. However, the SC is still silent about this. That's why Congress wants to challenge this to the SC so that the construction would be voting allowed separately.
I agree with you that probably, there is no time left for Congress or pro-charter change groups for this since 2009 is an election year already. Despite this, we must not let our guard down. If the planners of Gloria's extenstion has funds and the will to do it, anything is possible.