Lucky 09 and the SSS

Will 2009 be a lucky year for Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo? Will she finally get her wish to be able to extend her term at least, a year? Sources say Arroyo and her henchmen, especially Ronnie Puno, want the elections deferred for at least a year, meaning, make it 2011. That's their minimum desire. Why? For three reasons. One, they would want the Constitutional Convention formed by that time and they would use this argument to bolster their case before Congress re-opening on January 20. Second, that would also provide more funds for the ruling party and third, that would coincide with the formation of a bigger economic block led by Arroyo. Question---will 2009 be Arroyo's luckiest year as yet?

The country faces extreme challenges next year, especially in the export industries sector. As early as August 2008, the export industries have suffered tremendous blows due to low job orders. The US market has begun slowing down at that time and it continues to further slide. After the US meltdown, other European markets and even the Japanese market fell like dominoes.

Next will definitely be the tourism-related services industry. With more Westerners opting to save rather than splurge on a holiday, the tourism industry will likely slow down as well. I have'nt seen the World Tourism Association (WTA) projections but this will most likely be down by about 15 to 20% at the most.

Now, depending on what US President-elect Barack Obama will announce on January 20, 2009, the BPO sector will continue its robust growth. Why? Even if Obama decides to encourage US companies to just make their BPO in the mainland instead of offshore, more companies will still decide to continue their overseas operations because it is still cheaper to operate a BPO here than in the US. Obama will likely find a way to exploit other sectors in their economy instead of dipping his hands in the global BPO market.

Another critical sector would be the small and medium sized entreprises. If government, especially the BSP will hesitate to further widen the credit markets, it would put the entire economy to further risk since SME's rely on banks and government financial institutions for their capital infusions. For example, in my case, I want my own business but I lack capital. Will government extend its loan portfolio further to cover those in-between job cases like myself?

I went to SSS thru the help of its very efficient SVP Susie Bragante and found out that yes, I can get a loan but I need to land another employment to secure one. Whatthe? Its policy. Well, if I elect to continue my SSS membership, I have to pay a sum. Fine. I'll pay it. But, before I can loan, I have to wait for a month just to post that payment. Whatthef..ck! Paging SSS head Secretary Romulo Neri. You need to create another loan portfolio for the following:

1. Those SSS members who want to start their own businesses but lack capital and resigned from their jobs because they want to be entrepreneurs. And SSS should AT LEAST be able to give them the maximum loan amount equivalent to three times their former monthly pay. Look, Madame Arroyo urges everyone to be an entrepreneur and when we, citizens, do want to make our dreams come true, government fails in its obligation to at least extend us some loan.

2. OFWs. (I think government already provided 2 billion pesos worth of loanable funds for displaced OFWs. By the way, these OFWs are twice displaced--when they went abroad, they are classified as economically displaced. When they're busted from their jobs, they went displaced again.)

The secret so that we all would survive the global economic crisis in 2009 would be the following:

1. Expansion of credit facilities
2. Lowering of BSP interest rates
3. Lowering of BSP credit rates
4. Expansion of government assistance to SME's

A commitment towards National Survival

The World Bank just cancelled a US$ 230 million loan to our government due to corruption. More than half of the population hate their leader and want her to resign immediately, again, because of corruption. And what is the response of the government? Surveys are sham affairs, the people's voice is not important and government will form a group that would scrutinize government deals.

For Mrs. Arroyo, the message to the people is clear--I am immune to your voice. I will do what I think is right and will not heed your clamor for me to resign. What callousness.

I remember that at the onset of this government, Mrs. Arroyo tapped a Hongkong anti-graft consultancy group to look at the system to combat graft and corruption. Seven years had past and corruption seems to have evolved more quickly and transformed to a more lethal form. Institutions of government have slowly disintegrated due to corruption. As I wrote here, the state has already contracted and nearing implosion because the power center has weakened considerably. This weakness has lead to an increase in transactional patronage politics that opens the power center to more corruption.

The lost of trust, the weakness of the state leadership and its vulnerability to threats are directly affecting the very survival of this country. The viability of the Philippines as an investment site is eroding and it might affect the economic survival of the Philippines in the coming years.

Congress, especially the Speaker should realize this. The onus of saving this country from total ruin depends on Congress now. If, as expected, they kill the supplemental impeachment complaint today or in the coming days, it should be a signal to the idealistic soldiers and civil society groups to move and do what is necessary to save our country from this callous calamity.