Erap to be jailed again?

How true are these reports percolating within groups and coffee shops in Manila about the impending re-arrest and possible re-detention of former president Joseph Estrada? Estrada is reportedly to be arrested and jailed again for possible complicity in the BW scandal, involving one of his closest friends, Dante Tan.

Today, the Court of Appeals just overturned the 2007 decision by the RTC of Pasig dismissing the case against Tan, etal. Many view this as the start of an aggressive campaign by the administration to create the necessary conditions for a State of Emergency. It seems that hawks within the palace are hell-bent on extending the "benevolent" term of Mrs. Arroyo. They are lifting all stops.

Will Estrada and his forces allow this to happen? Surely, what the administration expects to happen is the heightening of political noise. Lately, there has been a dearth of political news, except of course, news about charter change.

Lakas and KAMPI have just decided to merge in preparation for the 2010 elections. Prospero Nograles and Luis Villafuerte just resigned their posts as party presidents. Nograles said it is now up to the president to marshall her men and her resources to resolve contentious party matters. Sources say Arroyo is sure to succumb to the temptation, even instructing her closest advisers to control the release of congressional funds.

Now, going back to Erap....it seems that his declaration to lead the charter change movement is a subterfuge meant as a countermeasure against the possible administration-led attack against him. Palace allies are determined not to allow Erap to re-establish his political machinery for a possible political comeback in 2010. Reports that one of Erap's trusted grassroots adviser and ideologue have been touring the country to again revive the successful JEEP IN ERAP has been deemed a "security matter" by the palace. These reports have sent chills down the spine of the Arroyo group, even some members of the Lakas faction of FVR. Note that Erap and Ramos have not reconciled since the latter ousted him from power in 2001. Erap once used his presidential powers to prosecute Ramos for the many controversial scandals in his time.

Some members of Lakas are determined to prevent a repeat of the Estrada presidency. They learned their lesson in 1997 when they allowed Erap to do his thing. Now, they are in the same position, albeit a better one since Ramos and his men already learned their bitter lesson in late 1992 when Ramos gave the anti-crime post to Erap.

Will Erap's re-arrest spark an Edsa tres? Will people go to the streets to defend Erap from his prosecutors?

Though I am in the opposition, my prognosis is categorical---there will be no Edsa tres. No protests will be seen in the streets. No armed encounters will happen between state and dissident forces. Mrs. Arroyo and her minions will get what they want. If it's cha-cha they want, they'll surely get it. If it's martial rule that they want, they'll will surely implement it. And if the people within Erap's camp hope to make a comeback in Malacanang, they will surely be frustrated.