Come 2010, a President Estrada, an Estrada as Senate President and an Ejercito as Speaker

There are those who refuse to see what's before them for lack of knowledge or simply want to close their eyes to the truth.

Come 2010, if the people decide, then, we will have a Joseph Estrada as president, his legitimate son, Jinggoy Estrada as Senate President and an illegitimate son, JV Ejercito, as Speaker. Talk about an Estrada restoration, this one is for the Guinness book of World Records.

And we condemn the Ampatuans for being warlords when we face the possibility of just one family dominating our entire country and dictating our very future for six years.

If Manny Villar wins the presidency, then, I see a repeat of the despised Arroyo regime. Imagine a president having his son in Congress and having an ex-Congresswoman as First Lady? What are the chances of his son being elected Speaker of the House while Villar sits as president? Likely, yes.

This is also the case of Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro, who wants to field his mother as Congresswoman of Tarlac, replacing his wife, the lovely Nikki Prieto-Teodoro. A mother and son tandem ruling the government?

How about the case of Noynoy Aquino? Should he wins, he will have a Councilor in Valenzuela as first lady?

Worst if we elect former president Joseph Estrada. Imagine a scenario where Erap sits as president while his son, Jinggoy Estrada serves as Senate President. That is not far-fetched since Jinggoy enjoys top spot as a senator in all surveys. If Jinggoy clinches the no. 1 position as Senator in this elections, we may have to contend with the possibility of an Estrada as Senate President.

If Estrada dies due to old age or disease, and efforts are made to discredit the vice president, then, another Estrada replaces the old one. Cute. :-)

Don't forget that another son, JV Ejercito, is gunning for the Congressional seat of San Juan, while his mother, Guia, is poised to win the mayoral post which JV will vacate come June 2010.

Come 2010, that would surely bring the entire Philippine House down---an Erap for president, a Jinggoy for Senate President and a JV Ejercito for Speaker. If all of them wins, then, we literally have a dynastic family ruling the entire Philippine political system. This is the surest way for us to have our very first Constitutional monarchy---an Estrada one, at that. Wow!

So you think that Erap has the moral authority to demand the Arroyos not to seek elective posts when all of his family are involved in this elections?

Besides, we saw how the Estradas abused their power when they occupied Malacanang. And we all know that Estrada is what, as Ebdane says, "utak pulbura" (meaning a war-freak), then, we can say that Estrada can be likened to an Andal Ampatuan.

Probably yes. Imagine, Ejercitos dominating the political system, armed with guns and their bullies, again.

And this is simply not too different when you ask me about Bangon Pilipinas presidential bet Eddie Villanueva. Villanueva has a son for a Congressman whom reports say will run as a legislator in Bulacan. Another Villanueva sits as mayor in one of the towns in Bulacan too. Should Eddie wins, then, we have a possible repeat of an Arroyo-like regime.

So, who do we choose?

The worst evil is elect an Estrada. The least evil, is, I think, vote for a Noynoy who will simply not allow a repeat of the Kamag-anak Incorporated that dominated his mother's administration. Or, will he really not allow this?

I say go for a JC delos Reyes. Oh, by the way, a JC win would translate into a Gordon? Wala na talaga.

Kay Nicanor Perlas na lang tayo.:-0

Kris, Willie and Manny Pacquiao endorsement will not affect candidate's chance of winning, according to Pulse Asia

According to the October survey of Pulse Asia, endorsements made by third parties will not affect the chances of an electoral bet. Endorsements will just, at most, affect the choice of just 11 percent of the electorate.

In fact, third party endorsement may even affect the political chances of the candidate.

Based on the survey by Pulse Asia, Kris Aquino attracts 45% of voters, higher than what Willie Revillame can do at 37%. Yet, this high rating as far as endorsements are concerned is not translate-able to votes. If Kris Aquino endorses someone, 49% of voters will not follow her lead, while 58% of voters will not be swayed by a Revillame endorsement.

Now, some say that if you're endorsed by Manny Pacquiao, you'll surely win? That's not the case. In fact, a Pacquiao endorsement would even harm your chances of winning.

Pulse Asia learned that 71% of the electorate will not follow Pacquiao's endorsement--only 21% will.

What if Mrs. Arroyo endorses you? Is it true that Arroyo's endorsement is a "kiss of death"?

Yes. If you're endorsed by Mrs. Arroyo, you'll surely earn the ire of 79% of the electorate and ONLY 15% will follow your lead.

What about the so-called "Erap Magic"? Is it still there?

Based on the survey, Erap's magic is now a myth.

If Erap endorses you, you'll alienate 59% of the electorate.

* the survey was made last October 22-30, 2009, with around 1,800 respondents.

Bakit natin ibabalik ang dati na nating inayawan?

Many of those who supported presidentiable Fernando Poe Jr. (FPJ), the lone and legitimate opposition force against Mrs. Arroyo in 2004, are not joining Erap Estrada's campaign. I have a very personal admission---I supported FPJ in 2004 because my friend, Amina Rasul happens to run under his party. By supporting FPJ, police bugged my house, hit me with dirty water during the tumultuous post-election Welcome Rotunda rally and even hit me with a truncheon. I told myself, ang tanda ko na, ngayon pa ulit ako na water cannon. The last time that I was hit with a truncheon, thrown smoke bombs at and nearly got caught was in 1990, with Miro Quimbo and Mike Defensor. Eventually, in a rally infront of the Vietnamese embassy, a few meters away from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas in Vito Cruz, I got caught along with 12 others. Humimas kami ng malamig na rehas na bakal. Eventually, all charges were cleared thanks to David Celdran and Angelo Jimenez.

Fourteen years past, and in that very confusing time in 2004, I was again, beaten up for telling the world about what a sham that election was. FPJ clearly won, and I still hold that belief because I was part of the team who got all those election documents (at the risk of personal safety) which showed FPJ won fair and square. Later events vindicated us. Hello Garci nearly brought this government to its knees.

When "Principal" (FPJ) died, everyone just packed his bags and we all went separate ways. The revolutionary momentum got lost somewhere, somehow, when FPJ died.  I resumed my marketing stint and went abroad. I became successful there in Singapore and even decided maybe I'm meant to live here instead of there in the Philippines. But, love, indeed, overwhelms the soul and before I know it, I came back home and now, trying to raise a family.

Now, will I support Erap's comeback bid? I am still thinking. Pero, if Erap still maintains as friends those same faces, obviously, I will not support him. I will not even convince my friends to support him. Why?

Yun bang 2 years in Erap in power, golden era ba yun? Panay nga ang gulo nuon. Isipin mo, gangster nga ang tingin ng mga tao nuong panahon ni Erap eh. Maganda sana kung ideological gangsterism yun, pero, hindi, purong gangsta government ang kay Erap. Hayday ng mga jueteng lords yun, pati ng mga nagtutupada. Tapos, ang lakas pa ng loob ni Erap na sabihing i-legalize ang mali? Erap, ang mali, ang kasalanan, ay kasalanan.

Sino-sino ba ang mga nasasa likod ni Erap ngayon? Si Boy M (Boy Morales) na dating komunista pero kapitalista na ngayon. Sina Ben Diokno na kanyang Budget secretary. Si Ernie Maceda na sinabihan dati ni Manila Mayor Arsenio Lacson na "so young yet so corrupt." Yung mga datihan nang Marcos cronies na na-transform into Erap cronies. Of course, me mga bago, na karamihan, mga Filipino-Chinese.

Kung ibabalik man natin si Erap, parang ibabalik natin ang Marcos regime sans martial law. Para tayong bumalik sa panahon ng mga 1960's.

Hindi naman dapat yun. Bumenta na yung political line ni Erap. Nakita na natin kung anong mangyayari kung si Erap ang pangulo. Yan ang hirap sa atin, urong sulong, sulong urong tayo.

Kumbaga, kay Gloria galit na galit tayo dahil parang mafia kung umasta sila. Tapos, iboboto natin ulit si Erap, eh di bumalik din ulit tayo sa institutional gangsterism? Hay naku.

The Spectre of a Proxy President looms

The opposition is in disarray. They are fighting amongst themselves. The specter of a proxy president looms in the horizon.

What is preventing NPC Senator Chiz Escudero from formally declaring his bid for the presidency? Sources say, it's former president Joseph Estrada who reportedly asked his good friend, Danding Cojuangco a big favor. Cojuangco already publicized his response---he will support whoever his party, the NPC, wants as their presidential bet. And Chiz is it.

Chiz is a formidable opponent because he has the backing of the Tsinoy community as well as Danding's group.

Yet, there are talks that Loren Legarda wants to cross parties and partner up with Erap. Not a good move at this point. Legarda should stay with the NPC since she has a better chance of winning this time, with Kabayan Noli de Castro out of the picture. De Castro, as some friends say, is going back to broadcasting.

Meanwhile, the Noynoy-Mar camp is, as some alleged, self-destructing. Their relief operations went haywire. Some groups are reportedly frustrated over the seemingly "secretive" way the Liberal Party is managing Noynoy's campaign. Talks about Noynoy meeting Erap and Danding are beginning to affect the morale of volunteers within Noynoy's camp, especially those belonging to the reform groups.

Villar, as some alleged, is slowly running out of funds.

And organizers within all their parties are engaged in mini turf wars, not good for the reform movement.

Over at the administration camp, things are slowly being organized behind Gibo. Gibo's presence in all those affected flood prone areas will find its mark in the surveys.

The key to this is the NORTH. Whoever makes himself big or bigger in the rehab efforts in the North will clinch the presidency. And it seems that, for the meantime, the administration is shoring up some points.

Erap to be jailed again?

How true are these reports percolating within groups and coffee shops in Manila about the impending re-arrest and possible re-detention of former president Joseph Estrada? Estrada is reportedly to be arrested and jailed again for possible complicity in the BW scandal, involving one of his closest friends, Dante Tan.

Today, the Court of Appeals just overturned the 2007 decision by the RTC of Pasig dismissing the case against Tan, etal. Many view this as the start of an aggressive campaign by the administration to create the necessary conditions for a State of Emergency. It seems that hawks within the palace are hell-bent on extending the "benevolent" term of Mrs. Arroyo. They are lifting all stops.

Will Estrada and his forces allow this to happen? Surely, what the administration expects to happen is the heightening of political noise. Lately, there has been a dearth of political news, except of course, news about charter change.

Lakas and KAMPI have just decided to merge in preparation for the 2010 elections. Prospero Nograles and Luis Villafuerte just resigned their posts as party presidents. Nograles said it is now up to the president to marshall her men and her resources to resolve contentious party matters. Sources say Arroyo is sure to succumb to the temptation, even instructing her closest advisers to control the release of congressional funds.

Now, going back to Erap....it seems that his declaration to lead the charter change movement is a subterfuge meant as a countermeasure against the possible administration-led attack against him. Palace allies are determined not to allow Erap to re-establish his political machinery for a possible political comeback in 2010. Reports that one of Erap's trusted grassroots adviser and ideologue have been touring the country to again revive the successful JEEP IN ERAP has been deemed a "security matter" by the palace. These reports have sent chills down the spine of the Arroyo group, even some members of the Lakas faction of FVR. Note that Erap and Ramos have not reconciled since the latter ousted him from power in 2001. Erap once used his presidential powers to prosecute Ramos for the many controversial scandals in his time.

Some members of Lakas are determined to prevent a repeat of the Estrada presidency. They learned their lesson in 1997 when they allowed Erap to do his thing. Now, they are in the same position, albeit a better one since Ramos and his men already learned their bitter lesson in late 1992 when Ramos gave the anti-crime post to Erap.

Will Erap's re-arrest spark an Edsa tres? Will people go to the streets to defend Erap from his prosecutors?

Though I am in the opposition, my prognosis is categorical---there will be no Edsa tres. No protests will be seen in the streets. No armed encounters will happen between state and dissident forces. Mrs. Arroyo and her minions will get what they want. If it's cha-cha they want, they'll surely get it. If it's martial rule that they want, they'll will surely implement it. And if the people within Erap's camp hope to make a comeback in Malacanang, they will surely be frustrated.