Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Update on Oplan August Moon

Malacanang and the Civil Relations service of the Armed Forces of the Philippines just denied the purported self-coup called Oplan August Moon. The palace spokesperson Lorelei Fajardo said that there's no such plan. While AFP Spokesman Lt. Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. also denied it.

Of course, they'll deny it but in Philippine society, chismis or what we call malicious or loose talk is more often than not, partially true.

Oplan August Moon, as some sources say, intends to shorten the term of AFP Chief of Staff General Victor Ibrado. The plan reportedly involves black ops teams whose mission is to "create a scenario of destabilization". This scenario involves alleged bombings, assasinations and rise of criminal activity within July onto August 6. Malacanang and the AFP will blame the Jemaah Islamiyah for these things.

August 6, as sources say, is the start of the campaign against Ibrado to culminate either in a forceful seizure of power to install a "revolutionary government" headed by Mrs. Arroyo or force a resignation of Ibrado come the first week of October 2009. Malacanang will blame Ibrado for an alleged failure to instill discipline among the ranks. One option, says these sources, is for the self-coup to fail and they'll point to Ibrado as the one who headed it. That will surely force the C-S to resign. When that happens, Lt. General Delfin Bangit will succeed him to the C-S post.

Ibrado, as some of these people say, will suffer the same fate as that of General Danny Lim.

These plotters, as sources say, intend to justify their move using the failure of the poll automation as an ideological platform. In truth, what this group intends is to prolong the term of Mrs. Arroyo's regime through martial rule. They will use this issue to justify their action.

Likewise, there is truth to talks that some ideologues in Malacanang are thinking about this option in view of the fact that Speaker Prospero Nograles Jr. just lost 47 Congressmen, mostly from Lakas, in the charter change fight. These Congressmen, as some insiders within the Lower House say, will withdraw their signatures from House Resolution 1109.

The plan reportedly by the palace to use Senator Lito Lapid to attend a session in Congress seems credible. Lapid reportedly will attend a session shortly after the SONA to try and express the support of the Senate. His presence will be used by cha-cha adherents to justify the convening of Congress. However, there's a problem. They now lack the required number of Congressmen to support HR 1109.

So, some sources say, palace hawks and ideologues are shifting gears---from the legal to the criminal. And they would surely fail, says Senator Ping Lacson. They will be courting death.

A coup needs the support of junior military officers. The key here is for junior officers to withdraw their support, as some sources suggest, from the chain of command. Military officers have the right not to act upon an illegal order. This is the only way for this self-coup to fail, and fail miserably.