Mar Roxas quits; throws support to NoyNoy Aquino for President

Senator Mar Roxas made history today when he announced that he's throwing his support behind the presidential candidacy of Senator Benigno "NoyNoy" Aquino. Mar made the announcement in a press conference today, September 1, 2009 at Club Filipino. The event was attended by major stalwarts of the Liberal Party. The video below was taken by Patricio Mangubat. By the way, I'll also be uploading this video on http://www.filipinonewsnetwork.com/.

The way I see it, it's too early and too premature for the Liberal Party especially on the part of Mar Roxas to throw in the towel this early. First, honestly, the so-called "clamour" for Noynoy is a clamor coming from the privileged classes who find Mar Roxas a "bland and (un)winnable" candidate and Noynoy a "winnable" one. There is no basis whatsoever if there really is a groundswell of support for Noynoy.

Second, it would have been better if the Liberal Party led by Mar Roxas announced his support after the completion of the 1 million signatures for Noynoy Aquino and after the release of new survey results. The loss of organizational support for Mar might have led to the decision to withdraw but that, in itself, is not enough to withdraw from the race this early.

The withdrawal of Mar Roxas sends a very bad message to the people---it shows how weak the Liberal Party is. If you can decide to withdraw from the race based only on perceptions and possible media blitzes, it shows how weak this party really is, in terms of grassroots support.

Look, what if the latest survey results show Noynoy getting only a fraction of what Mar got since he started his campaign? What would the Liberal Party do? At least in the case of Mar, the party knows that it will get at least 18% of the votes.

Despite his ratings plateau-ing, there is still some room for improvement and I am not at liberty to discuss what those methods are. Simply put, Mar is not entirely a hopeless case. However, Noynoy is also not exactly the solution to a plateau-ing ratings. No.

The solution is fortifying the grassroots organization of the party through effective organizing efforts and possibly getting those territories of their rival political parties. Even if, say, the entire civil society throws its entire support behind Noynoy, there is still no assurance that Noynoy would even surpass the gains made by Villar's and Erap's camps.

Noynoy is an untested candidate. IN terms of electoral performance, Mar is even better. I think that Mar made a grievous and bad decision tonight.

Mar may have gotten some pogi points in terms of gallantry and being a statesman, but, it's good to be described as such if there is some basis for being so. At this point, it's too early to say if Mar's sacrifice would really (1) fortify and unify the reformist movement and (2) secure victory in the polls.

What's certain---Mar's decision further plunged his party into the realm of uncertainty and possible defeat in 2010. Why?

Filipinos don't vote for weak personalities. They always side with the strongest or perceived to be the strongest party. Mar might have been given unwise counsel, and probably some Liberal Party men told him that a Noynoy candidacy is stronger. But, how sure is Mar that Noynoy is really the strongest candidate that the Liberal Party could offer?

Okey, so what is the explanation for Mar Roxas' withdrawal? Was he influenced by pronouncements made by Aksyon Demokratiko and Kaya Natin! movement, two neophyte organizations in this game called politics thah they'll throw their support behind Noynoy? If that is so, then, poor Mar. He made a very weak statement. Aksyon Demokratiko lost by a mile in 2007 and the Kaya Natin! movement is at best, an Atenean experiment based possibly on theory rather than reality. I would probably think otherwise if it's Lakas or the Nacionalista who withdrew, but, these two? If I were Mar, I would probably think twice or thrice before I throw in the towel.

Of course, we're not Mar Roxas and he knows things better, especially in terms of how big or small his campaign organization is. What is certain is that his withdrawal this early proves beyond a doubt that he and the Liberal Party lacks the party machinery to win. And knowing this, Mar and the Liberals are probably hoping that they can exploit the "pulling power" of the Aquino political brandname to bolster party ranks. For an idealist, that's possible. But for an astute political strategist, that's wishful thinking.

The Liberal Party will not split at this point but they'll never get stronger anyhow and anyway you see it.