Arroyo mafia will continue in power even after Gloria steps down

Six months more and she's gone. I'm referring to Gloria Arroyo. Her spokesperson by the name of Gary Olivar said Mrs. Arroyo expects more Arroyo bashings from her detractors. Why, you ask? Olivar is supposed to talk about economics. Is Olivar preparing already from an expected slew of public outrage because of the worsening economic situation?

The economy grew by 0.08%, much lower than the government targets. Inflation has shot to double digits again and the Consumer Confidence Index of the BSP shows a negative 46%. These are indications of a mismanaged economy. It also shows that despite what government told the people that they insulated the economy from the dire effects of the global recession, the truth was actually the opposite. Truth be told--the local economy suffered because foreign funds were siphoned off abroad and no new investments were coming in. Banks are also being hit by a ballooning debt/loan crisis. Only a steady stream of OFW remittances make the economy afloat.

Last Christmas, malls opened with 80% sales bonanza but no one was biting. Filipinos are saving their monies for the worst. Ayala Malls are giving 80% off from today up to January 17 just to dispose of their old stocks but, again, no one is biting. Filipinos are feeling the economic crunch and no hope is in sight.

Yes, more than half of Filipinos expect things to get better by this year because everyone knows that Arroyo is leaving in six months time. Between now and June 30, Filipinos expect things to get worst before everything normalizes. Fact is, if you analyze it, it would take the entire year before everything settles down.

This year is a transitional year, a year of expected political and social upheavals. We don't need to be a Jojo Acuin or a Madame Auring for us to expect that, in a transition period, everything goes in different directions first before some powerful force makes these things go to just one direction.

Dismantling the Arroyo mafia network is one of the expected and the hardest tasks of the new administration, regardless of who wins. If Noynoy wins, he has to contend with the wayward allies of Mrs. Arroyo who opposes him and his fellow Liberal party members. If Villar wins and installs his own men in government, he may have to contend with overstaying stooges of the former regime who already made their fortunes in their respective departments. And if Estrada wins, expect many contending forces to again call for his immediate ouster.

The new administration's task of rebuilding damaged political and economic institutions is the hardest, uncomparable even with what Cory Aquino encountered post-EDSA uno. The tentacles of the Arroyo mafia has infected every department of government and it will not be that easy dislodging these Arroyo men from their posts.

The saddest part is that Gloria has still two more aces in her sleeves. First, the appointment of a Chief of Staff of the AFP which will happen sometime in March. And second, the appointment of additional justices in the Supreme Court. These two key acts are essential for the continued survival of the Arroyo mafia and it would take a gigantuan act by the new administration to even neutralize such actions.

If we expect the Arroyo influence to wane shortly after June 30, we are dreaming. The Arroyo mafia will continue to weave their evil wands over the land because most of them will be occupying Congress, and Congress, as we already know, has become more powerful than the Senate. Last year's cha-cha showdown between the Senate and the House of Representatives prove that, in the final analysis, it is the tyranny of numbers which enables such evil administrations to exists and perpetuate their will over a few Nationalists.

We still have the Constitutional Convention in October to contend with. This is another event which will ensure the perpetuation of the Arroyo mafia in power. Arroyo may be "out", but the tentacles and the network established by her husband, who remains the number one big-time operator in this country, will persist even beyond June 30.

What am I saying? We may have to get rid of the entire Arroyo crew in government and I believe it would take the entire first 100 days of the new administration to just do that. It may be impossible to prosecute thousands of Arroyo mafia members.  

Whoever wins the presidency will have his hands full; neutralizing these Arroyo mafia members and installing his own men in government. Even the very act of de-militarizing the civilian bureaucracy is one tough challenge which may derail the honest reform efforts of the new administration.