Showing posts with label Arroyo administration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arroyo administration. Show all posts

Monday, September 13, 2010

5 Pnoy Officials sabit sa Jueteng--Archbishop Oscar Cruz

There are at least five high-ranking officials of the Aquino administration involved in the illegal numbers game, says former Dagupan archbishop Oscar Cruz.

Cruz says as much as 2 million pesos per month were given each to these officials. Wow.

And what response did Cruz get from this administration? As usual, the oft-repeated refrain of come up with the list and prove it.

Wow again.

This reminds us of how the former Arroyo administration answers each and every issue hurled against it.

I distinctly remember the promise made by President Noynoy Aquino when he appointed Jesse Robredo to head the Department of Interior and Local Government--ran after big-time jueteng lords.

Shortly after a few days, the DILG and the palace both went eerily silent. Robredo stopped answering questions about jueteng. Fact is, suggestions cropped up. Many suggested that governments allow the continued operation of STL or Small Town Lottery.

The bigger question is---what will Aquino do? Will he cut off the heads of these officials and file charges against them?

Like what I said, ang daang matuwid ay unti-unting babaluktot kapagka walang ruler ang mga gumagawa ng daan.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Who will clinch the presidency in 2010? Part II


Imagine a scenario where power goes out in major cities and some municipalities in metropolitan areas during the counting period. Imagine a scenario where armed groups destroy counting machines in some far-flung areas of the archipelago. Impossible? In Philippine politics nothing is impossible.

What is a political certainty is this---if administration candidate Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro wins in the cleanest of all elections, he will definitely not assume power. He will not be able to swore himself in as president because no one will believe it and definitely, most of his political opponents will surely cry foul. When that happens, expect either two results: (1) Mrs. Arroyo calls for martial rule or (2) groups oust Mrs. Arroyo in a successful revolt and calls for a repeat of the presidential elections.


An automated elections, I remember what Senator Chiz Escudero said some months ago, is not an assurance that the entire democratic exercise will be clean and honest. The elections will only be as safe, as honest and as clean as what we expect it to be, if those behind those counting machines, are honest and are not susceptible to corruption. Machines will just count. Men are the ones inputting data into the machine.

Everyone knows that there are only two (2) ways to compromize an IT-based integrative system: hacking the software and physical attacks. The Comelec just hired an IT firm who will ensure the integrity of the source codes. That's fine. The question is---when will they install those source codes? Obviously, they will do it weeks prior to the elections. It is that crucial time when cheaters will definitely act. Thru collusion with election officers, these cheaters can replace these source codes with their own. If election cheaters procure or secure for themselves the technical specs of these source codes, they can very well, replace them even a day or two prior to the counting.

Now, should that be entirely impossible to do, the next riskier thing to do is physically harm the system through sabotage. This entails a bigger expense since it would need the cooperation of security agencies and election officials.

Many fear that cheaters will definitely do just that in selected far-flung areas where security is thin. To be able to influence the elections in a major way, these cheaters have to compromise not just a dozen, but at least 15% of election areas and if you look at the data of the PNP, this reflects at least 45% of their list of election hot-spots.

Definitely, this elections will surely go the way of a violent one, because election cheaters will definitely employ tactics to ensure that their paid clients win. 

Now, in the event that the elections loses credibility, then, the one who will definitely win or clinch the presidency, will be the one ready to deploy his army of supporters and launch a civil disobedience campaign. That one would most certainly be the candidate who:

1. Successfully convinced the public that he is the best man to beat but
2. lost due to massive administration-initiated cheating

Why do I think that this is sure to happen?

Because no candidate will get a major slice of the electorate votes. No one. Come May 2010, everything stabilizes and every candidate is statistically given an equal chance of winning. Come May 10, no ratings or even star power would matter in the polling precincts. What would matter would be the preparations of these candidates prior to the voting and counting phases.

In a seven-cornered fight such as this one (Aquino-Villar-Estrada-Teodoro-Villanueva-Gordon-Delos Reyes), just one of these candidates cry "foul" or "I was cheated!" would spark public outrage. This will surely lead to a revolution of some sorts.

This is a very serious security matter. Every candidate right now is being supported by at least one PMA class and this could turn into a franatical war between and among military classes and a serious shouting match among various elite groups who already threw their support behind differing political groups.

Wherever you look at it, this elections would surely be explosive.

For example, everyone will surely express disbelief if Teodoro wins EVEN IN THE CLEANEST OF ALL ELECTIONS. Everyone thinks that Teodoro's liability is his association with Gloria and as early as now, the impression is, he will surely not win.

Now, what if the stakes just turn suddenly in favor of Teodoro and he wins, what now? Surely, the Aquino, the Villar and even the Villanueva camps will cry "fraud" and that would start a revolution against Arroyo. This will set the process of revolution which will only stop when Noynoy Aquino assumes power.

Whatever happens, Noynoy Aquino will definitely be the next Philippine president--whether there is a clean or a tainted electoral exercise. Why? Because he has the full crew of civil society members under his political party.

What happens to Erap? If Noynoy assumes the presidency, Estrada will recognize it. How about Villar? Will Villar contest Noynoy's leadership in that critical stage? No.

Surely, Villar's numbers will be as close as Noynoy's. A struggle between the two parties will happen but this will eventually result to a compromise.

Now, someone will definitely contest my analysis and say that, sure, these groups will oppose a Teodoro win and cry foul, but their efforts will be frustrated. Look at what happened in 1992? Miriam defensor-Santiago opposed FVR's win but FVR still got the presidency.

1992 is totally different because FVR managed to calm the frayed nerves of other political parties. Miriam is not exactly your "good version" of a rabble rouser. Miriam is different from Noynoy. If Noynoy says there was cheating (even if there is but it just will influence a small fraction of the presidential results), the people will definitely believe him and will support him.

Net---Gilbert Teodoro will surely lose in this elections even if he wins by a cleanest of all exercises because of the perception that his victory will be perceived as tainted and manipulated by the administration. Even if Teodoro manages to squeak in a margin of one million votes over, say Noynoy or Villar, there will still be public outrage due to accusations of fraud.

The only expected outcome of the May 20, 2010 elections is a clean toss-up between two major political parties---Noynoy Aquino's Liberal and Manny Villar's Nacionalista. If Noynoy wins in the most slim of margins, that is still okey since this will just be contested in the electoral tribunals. If Estrada wins, and his margin is not that big over say Noynoy's or Villar's, that will set the motion for FVR supporters to move for destabilization. The public does not expect Gordon or JC delos Reyes to win or even Eddie Villanueva. If they, however, squeak in a win, this will shock the country but will not be enough to mobilize masses of people for a revolt.

Yet, again, as I said, if Teodoro wins, expect a different kind of EDSA, probably the bloodiest of all. It would take a miracle to calm everything down. 

Arroyo mafia will continue in power even after Gloria steps down

Six months more and she's gone. I'm referring to Gloria Arroyo. Her spokesperson by the name of Gary Olivar said Mrs. Arroyo expects more Arroyo bashings from her detractors. Why, you ask? Olivar is supposed to talk about economics. Is Olivar preparing already from an expected slew of public outrage because of the worsening economic situation?

The economy grew by 0.08%, much lower than the government targets. Inflation has shot to double digits again and the Consumer Confidence Index of the BSP shows a negative 46%. These are indications of a mismanaged economy. It also shows that despite what government told the people that they insulated the economy from the dire effects of the global recession, the truth was actually the opposite. Truth be told--the local economy suffered because foreign funds were siphoned off abroad and no new investments were coming in. Banks are also being hit by a ballooning debt/loan crisis. Only a steady stream of OFW remittances make the economy afloat.

Last Christmas, malls opened with 80% sales bonanza but no one was biting. Filipinos are saving their monies for the worst. Ayala Malls are giving 80% off from today up to January 17 just to dispose of their old stocks but, again, no one is biting. Filipinos are feeling the economic crunch and no hope is in sight.

Yes, more than half of Filipinos expect things to get better by this year because everyone knows that Arroyo is leaving in six months time. Between now and June 30, Filipinos expect things to get worst before everything normalizes. Fact is, if you analyze it, it would take the entire year before everything settles down.

This year is a transitional year, a year of expected political and social upheavals. We don't need to be a Jojo Acuin or a Madame Auring for us to expect that, in a transition period, everything goes in different directions first before some powerful force makes these things go to just one direction.

Dismantling the Arroyo mafia network is one of the expected and the hardest tasks of the new administration, regardless of who wins. If Noynoy wins, he has to contend with the wayward allies of Mrs. Arroyo who opposes him and his fellow Liberal party members. If Villar wins and installs his own men in government, he may have to contend with overstaying stooges of the former regime who already made their fortunes in their respective departments. And if Estrada wins, expect many contending forces to again call for his immediate ouster.

The new administration's task of rebuilding damaged political and economic institutions is the hardest, uncomparable even with what Cory Aquino encountered post-EDSA uno. The tentacles of the Arroyo mafia has infected every department of government and it will not be that easy dislodging these Arroyo men from their posts.

The saddest part is that Gloria has still two more aces in her sleeves. First, the appointment of a Chief of Staff of the AFP which will happen sometime in March. And second, the appointment of additional justices in the Supreme Court. These two key acts are essential for the continued survival of the Arroyo mafia and it would take a gigantuan act by the new administration to even neutralize such actions.

If we expect the Arroyo influence to wane shortly after June 30, we are dreaming. The Arroyo mafia will continue to weave their evil wands over the land because most of them will be occupying Congress, and Congress, as we already know, has become more powerful than the Senate. Last year's cha-cha showdown between the Senate and the House of Representatives prove that, in the final analysis, it is the tyranny of numbers which enables such evil administrations to exists and perpetuate their will over a few Nationalists.

We still have the Constitutional Convention in October to contend with. This is another event which will ensure the perpetuation of the Arroyo mafia in power. Arroyo may be "out", but the tentacles and the network established by her husband, who remains the number one big-time operator in this country, will persist even beyond June 30.

What am I saying? We may have to get rid of the entire Arroyo crew in government and I believe it would take the entire first 100 days of the new administration to just do that. It may be impossible to prosecute thousands of Arroyo mafia members.  

Whoever wins the presidency will have his hands full; neutralizing these Arroyo mafia members and installing his own men in government. Even the very act of de-militarizing the civilian bureaucracy is one tough challenge which may derail the honest reform efforts of the new administration.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago insane? You must be out of your mind Atty. Pangcoga!


Is insanity one of the grounds for disqualifying someone aspiring for a senatorial post? I checked my 1987 Constitution and no where do I find sanity as part of the pre-election qualifications for a senator:

Sec. 3, Article VI. No person shall be a Senator unless he is a natural-born citizen of the Philippines, and, on the day of the elections, is at least thirty-five years of age, able to read and write, a registered voter, and a resident of the Philippines for not less than two years immediately preceding the day of the elections"
Under the Omnibus Election Code, let us check the grounds for disqualification:

Section 12 of the BP 881 or the Omnibus Election Code which provides as follows:



Sec. 12. Disqualifications. – Any person who has been declared by competent authority insane or incompetent, or has been sentenced by final judgment for subversion, insurrection, rebellion or for any offense for which he has been sentenced to a penalty of more than eighteen (18) months, or for a crime involving moral turpitude, shall be disqualified to be a candidate and to hold any office, unless he has been given plenary pardon, or granted amnesty.
So, there, a candidate can only be disqualified if rendered insane or incompetent by a "competent authority," meaning, declared clinically insane by a doctor or the National Mental Hospital.
 
Why am I talking about this now? Because a Palace hack filed a disqualification case against Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago on the grounds of "insanity".
 
The lawyer, a Muslim by the name of Nombraan Pangcoga, director of the Philippine Muslim Affairs, charged Santiago of insanity and asked another lawyer Atty. Bonifacio Alentajan to file the disqualification case, well beyond the reglamentary period for filing such a case before the Supreme Court.
 
Seemed that the one insane is this Pangcoga, who probably filed the case just to lick the behind of a Cabinet member out to discredit the good senator. Any lawyer would know that the case will not stick in court, unless, of course, there is a document that they could present showing a doctor declaring Santiago, "insane" or "incompetent".
 
Pangcoga should also know that even if there are evidence showing graft and corruption against Santiago, she should first be charged and declared guilty by final judgment, meaning by the Supreme Court, before anyone could actually file a disqualification case, citing as grounds a case of graft.
 
Tsk,tsk,tsk. Seemed like this ass-licker by the name of Pangcoga is heading to the gallows. And Alentajan too for consenting to file such a nebulous case against Santiago. The PR man who made this yarn is also responsible and will probably get himself shot by his bosses anytime soon.
 
Senator Santiago, for all her faults, is a brilliant lawyer. She is the most eloquent among the Senators. Sometimes she speaks her mind louder than the others but Santiago is definitely not insane.
 
This is not the way to discredit somebody like Santiago who already distanced herself from the Arroyo administration.
 
Now, here's the catch---is there a "silent prodding" or is there a "blanket authority" given by somebody high up there to publicly discredit and malign the reputation of Senator Santiago? As they say, these Cabinet members do not act independently from Mrs. Arroyo.
he disqualifications to be a candidate herein provided shall be dee

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Arroyo more lethal than Marcos

We face a strong and stubborn enemy. Unlike the Marcos regime, the Arroyo administration is more dangerous. First, it has a strong political will, able to accomplish almost everything it desires and uses resources more skilfully and effectively than its enemies.

Second, it has, under its disposal, a young army of former change agents. These ex-change agents are skilled in the Art of War. They possess organizational as well as tactical knowledge of the political environment. They know what buttons to push and with the right application of tactical moves, they are able to defeat us and lead us to confusion.

Lastly, the Arroyo regime is in a stronger position in terms of the exercise of state power. It has the loyalty of some generals. It has spies sown like seeds in the field.

Isolation is the first step in defeating this regime. In the past though, the Arroyo clique already solved that through a public display of support from its allies. Through machinations, the Arroyo clique lured both its allies and enemies into a trap before, set to show strength and force under extremely difficult circumstances.

This came about because the Arroyo clique already knew and telegraphed the moves of its enemies. In any destabilizing situation, the script is evident. First, the rallies. Second, expression of collective support. Third, the calling of Patriotic elements within the military. Fourth, a big expression of dissent and fifth, the movement of troops. This has been the script since EDSA uno and the reason why the Arroyo regime continues to survive is the fact that the writers of this script are now safely on the side of Wrong, rather than of Right.

In all of these stages, the Arroyo clique already had the right responses based on its experience culled from years of surviving under a cloud of destabilization.

The script must be revised. A new strategy must be created and implemented. New players should emerge from this crisis; otherwise, these moves are sure and bound to fail, yet again, leading to demoralization and useless expenditure.

I am not at liberty to suggest anything at this point simply to say try reading the 36 Strategems of War. That holds the key to the complete defeat of this regime.

General Clausewitz used to say that war is a continuation of politics. In a nonlinear situation, the theory of chaos is always best as a strategy since this compels the opposing force to adapt in a different situation.

Lastly, it would be erroneous to compare Arroyo with Marcos, therefore, the same strategy applies to the present situation. Ours is a totally different situation. We are not struggling under a dictatorship, no. There is yet, a perceived foundling of a dictatorship. Hence, there is an absence of experience or learnings. Without this, it would be hard to generate critical mass.

Therefore, we must not rely on a critical mass as a dependent variable. We must push for the penultimate result without thinking of the future. If we fear that the Arroyo regime would use all available force to avert change, then, we must not proceed with all our plans since that indicates unpreparedness.

Stealth and the right application of the theories of war should be undertaken. Otherwise, this would lead to a disastrous defeat. It would give the regime a reason to proceed with the dictatorship and worst, totally annihilate all dissenting groups in the process.

Monday, March 9, 2009

Arroyo to declare martial rule either April or June?

Martial law by May? Though Global Source, a US-based think tank failed to identify when will the Arroyo administration would probably launch such a ridiculous measure to perpetuate itself to an overtime of power, sources of NPR says the possibility of Martial rule remains an option to the Arroyo cabal.

That window of opportunity for such a foolish and idiotic drive presents itself in the period of time between Congress entering into an adjournment of session from March 7 to April 12 or between June 6 to July 26 of this year.

An extraordinary event like this should only happen while Congress is in adjournment. Why? Because a declaration during a session is entirely disruptive, even chaotic.

The most likely time for Arroyo would be this period of adjournment, between March to April. Why? It allows more time for her allies to re-group themselves, shore up more resources and possibly increase support for the measure so that, come re-opening of the session, they may be able to push for an extension of the martial rule declaration only until July 26, 2009. By which time they may have already passed certain measures which will benefit them come 2010.

However, absent any stirrings from the public and possible genuine opposition from anti-Arroyo groups, the Arroyo Cabal may have to re-think their strategies and possibly go for the June 12 deadline they already set for themselves.

At this point in time, there is really nothing big an event that would justify an imposition of martial rule, except, if the following events/scenarios happen:

1. A worsening of the hostage crisis in Jolo, Sulu and the heightening of low intensity conflicts in MILF areas.

2. An increase in crime incidence in the Metropolitan areas.

3. An intensification of anti-Communist campaigns in both the red and the white areas.

4. Heightening of high-profile crime cases involving either assassinations of big-time personalities and/or government/police officials.

5. Possible "ambush-me" scenarios that would involve either the president and/or one or some of her officials.


A June declaration of martial rule is beneficial since it allows them a longer period of time of implementation and also, possibly, create a more beneficial atmosphere of likely support from allies.

A disruption of the political configurations via a martial rule measure would likely debilitate the opposition and cause support to rise for the administration.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Gloria: Oh My God! (Buko na kami!)

Was it Freudian slip or meant to ass lick some more? Press secretary Jesus Dureza today reportedly embarrassed his boss when he prayed for Gloria to have the forebearance to survive 2010 and even rule beyond it. Realizing the implications, Gloria asked journalists that they strike off Dureza's dog prayer. But, you know, stories such as these are obviously head line material.

It's plain and simple dog prayer, the one probably uttered by former Justice Secretary Hernando Perez, COMELEC Commissioner Garcillano, former COMELEC Chairman Abalos, former NEDA and now SSS Chief Romulo Neri and now, being prayed by fertilizer scam architect Joc-Joc Bolante. Bolante prays like that each and every time he goes to a forum such as the Senate (and just today, at the Congress) because deep in his heart, he knows he's lying. Of course, he'll evade jail time since it's still Gloria at the top. He pulled so many legs today, fooled so many people, including Congressmen and for that, he even managed to make a smile out of all the bola-bola. Like what Cebu Congressman Tony Cuenco accused him off, he'll probably be a very good poker player.

And you know why they have this dogged and cultist belief for Gloria? Because these people have nowhere to go in a post-Gloria era. If the Opposition wins in 2010, all of them will be history. Bolante would probably go to a neutral country and stay there permanently. But, that's just a dream.

With a messed up Senate, who would dare cross Gloria and her mafia gang's way, except maybe those who want to commit suicide? Enrile may profess independence but he's an avowed and firm believer of charter change. He can maneuver and exploit the tenuous hold of the majority to power at the Upper Chamber and re-configure the composition of the Majority. At this stage, we have an opposition hao-shiao ruling as a majority. The present majority is weak. They are composed of strong willed and independent-minded individuals who never voted as a block and would probably go their own ways based on their individual political ambitions.

When the time comes for this Senate to vote on an important matter such as the proposal to constitute Congress as a constituent assembly (or call for a Constitutional Convention), there is a strong possibility that another configuration would rise, with those in favor equal in number with those opposed. A divided Senate is the consequence of this latest caper.

A weak and divided Senate will not stand a Chinaman's chance against the administration-strong coalition at the House.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Requisites for Bangsamoro State-hood

There's a heated exchange going on between Jester-in-Exile and one FV followed Dan U Ignacio. It's all about the Bangsamoro Question. In the next few days, I'll be writing about this, especially on the concept of nation-building. What are the internationally-recognized conventions that allow people, even indigenous ones, to form their own governments or craft their own independent states. I'm pretty particular about this because of what's happening right now in Kosovo which could be used by the Arroyo regime as a justification for the grant of a similar BJE setup. Kosovo, as you may well know, what's to secede from Albania because of ethnic clashes. The international community has stepped up its efforts to recognize the independence of the Kosovo people.

Now, if really the Bangsamoro people want their own independent state, they would have to prove five (5) things:

1. The Bangsamoro people are not Filipinos.
2. The Bangsamoro people are being enslaved and oppressed by the Philippine government.
3. The representative of the Bangsamoro may have to exercise dominion over the territories covering the BJE through force, if necessary.
4. They have to exercise governmental functions in that territory and must exercise or show that they can keep the power at all times against external threats.
5. They have to step up efforts at getting international recognition of the Bangsamoro as a people.

These requisites should be satisfied by  the Bangsamoro. However, I fear the worst for the Bangsamoro people because they are still not united. They have a disparate voice which harms the entire struggle. They need one unifying force that would make people toe the line and I think that it is only for the love of Allah SWT and the pious exercise of Islam will this be achieved. 

Monday, October 29, 2007

The Crumbling Bastille

I wrote here two nights ago that the political situation has been muddled by the pardon of Erap. My presumption is we cannot really say where Erap's loyalties are. However, his statement below says much about his present stand--he's backing away from calls for Arroyo to quit. This is expected of him, since, Estrada is really not much of a strategist. If we are to review his credentials, he's (1) a media creation and (2) he does'nt have the vision. Likewise, Estrada, like Arroyo, are flanked by bumbling idiots. Obviously, this statement says much of the quality of people he likes to be surrounded with.

If I am Erap, I would distance myself from all these people and just keep silent. He does'nt know the real situation. He does'nt realize the impact of his statements, one for those who allied with him during his incarceration and two for the millions who still idolize him. Releasing these kinds of statements harm him because SHOULD THE ANTI-GMA FORCES SUCCEED, HE MIGHT FIND HIMSELF IN JAIL AGAIN.

I think Erap was advised to issue these kinds of statement in reaction to the statement by former FVR that his release was a "calamity". Erap considers FVR his enemy and by siding with Arroyo, he thinks that he can save himself from the clutches of FVR. He's wrong.

My proposal to Erap is this--quit now while you're still free. Do not frustrate or serve as a stumbling block in all these efforts at ousting Arroyo. You don't have a full grasp of political reality.

Net of discussion--do not side with the crumbling Bastille. You might find yourself incarceration yet again. And this time, you might find yourself sharing a cell with his benefactor.

Estrada backs away from Arroyo-quit call
Rejects bid to set up transition government

By Jocelyn Uy
Inquirer
Last updated 02:52am (Mla time) 10/29/2007
Most Read
MANILA, Philippines -- Former President Joseph Estrada Sunday distanced himself from fresh calls for the resignation of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo sparked by the pardon she had granted the disgraced leader convicted of plunder.

“It’s the people -- the poor sector which is the largest part of our society who should choose and decide who they want to run or replace the government, not the few elitists and the churchmen,” Estrada told the Philippine Daily Inquirer, parent company of INQUIRER.net, by phone.

On Friday, the ousted leader was given a new lease on life and walked out of his sprawling Tanay, Rizal, vacation house, where he had spent most of the six years he had been under house arrest, a free man after accepting executive clemency.

The pardon, which both the Estrada and Arroyo camps cited as a step toward national reconciliation, has triggered calls among civil society groups and political and church leaders for the removal of the President and the setting up of a junta to be headed by Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno.

A Puno-led transition government also does not appeal to Estrada, who said that the nation would only tumble into the same pitfalls of the military-backed uprising in 2001 that “unconstitutionally” removed him from power.

Estrada noted that it was Puno who “invented” his constructive resignation, an act that violated his constitutional rights as the then President.

“Haven’t they learned from their mistakes during the Edsa Dos? Our country has gone from bad to worse [since then]. I don’t believe that these elitists and church leaders should decide the fate of our country. It’s the majority who should have a say now,” he stressed, strongly indicating his aversion to another people power.

No deal

But he reiterated that there were no strings attached or an agreement forged between him and the administration in his acceptance of executive clemency.

“There was no deal. I thanked her last Friday because it is the right thing to do as our Filipino values dictate,” he explained.

Speaking like the true “father of the masses” his supporters hold him up to be, Estrada pointed out that the elite should never dictate to the poor Filipinos who have been helping sustain the government through their dollar remittances from abroad.

‘Hello Garci’

Estrada himself had called for the resignation of Ms Arroyo at the height of last year’s “Hello Garci” controversy which suggested that she rigged the 2004 presidential elections. She has denied any wrongdoing.

Like former President Corazon Aquino, Estrada had clamored for a transition government to replace the Arroyo administration and establish a system of governance designed for systematic changes and radical reforms to ensure lasting solutions to poverty and corruption that have tormented the nation.

He had even expressed a willingness to lead the transition government while it was looking for a permanent replacement.

Not seeking public office

The 70-year-old Estrada Sunday repeated his earlier statement that he would no longer run for any government office and would rather spend his remaining years in the “full service” of the poor.

But when asked if he would entertain thoughts of entering politics again in the future, he replied, “It’s up to the people to decide.”

He also expressed no inclination in joining the National Anti-Poverty Commission, saying that his attention was more focused on linking up with nongovernment organizations to pursue his pro-poor programs.

Among the projects he cited was the “white revolution,” which he had initiated as then senator by authoring the Philippine Carabao Act to propagate the animal to ensure more production of quality milk for farmers and poor schoolchildren.

He mentioned visiting the first carabao center in the Science City of Muñoz in Nueva Ecija province, which he planned to replicate in the Visayas and Mindanao with the help of former Sen. Leticia Shahani.

“The government now has competent people in the antipoverty commission. Now, I would like more to work with the private sector,” said Estrada, who had spent his first Sunday as a free man with his grandchildren.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Strategic Masterstroke

Arroyo made a masterstroke when she pardoned Erap--it removed a major force in their ranks and effectively divided them. However, the situation is not hopeless. Erap can still undermine Arroyo. I mean, Erap can still regain whatever credibility he has with the people by just one strong statement of withdrawal of support from her. That would be sweet justice should Erap do this. Anyway, the papers have been signed and there's nothing really that Arroyo can do at this time about it. She can't file another case against Erap. The question that everybody is asking is--why is Erap seem so fearful of Arroyo?

Could it be that he was threatened by Arroyo of perdition should he not sign the pardon? Could it be that Erap is really not interested with politics anymore? Could it be that Erap has "learned his lesson" and that he knows for a fact that his force is just a "mirage"?

The political situation is still fuzzy at the moment. Nobody can really say where all of these things are headed. One thing is sure though--Erap and Arroyo have cancelled themselves out. They have one common enemy=FVR. It remains to be seen whether FVR still have the force to ram against them. I believe at this time, the accounting of forces have already been made and both camps know their true strength. The question is--will we see a change of government this November?

Observation on the online petition

Based on a reading of the People's Pulse, this online petition will amount to nothing. The people does'nt want a snap elections. Its a waste of time and money. What they support though, is a caretaker government. The concept of a caretaker government seems to resonate loudly among the people and I believe that should this happen, it will be supported by the people.

The caretaker government should rule this country until 2010. By that time, everything would have calmed down and a new constitution would have been in place. That's the way to go. The only question is--are these forces really determined to go all out against Arroyo? We will see in the coming weeks.

Friday, October 26, 2007

Cancelling each other Out

The symbolic meaning of Arroyo's pardon is this--it solidified the struggle against both Arroyo and Estrada. This pardon just shows that there's no difference between Arroyo and Estrada; that they all remain the same and belong to the same kind--that of the most despicable kind. It tells a lot about the dynamics of politics and how numbers matter in realpolitik. More importantly, whether the math is imagined or not, the point of every political exercise is to shock and awe the other side so that their defenses cave in. In this case, Estrada emerged triumphant against Arroyo because Estrada managed to shock Arroyo into believing that he still has the numbers to move against Arroyo.

The onus of changing our present state and moving towards a more credible, honest government lies in all of us. Those who were disgusted with what Arroyo did should stand up now and be counted. Those who think that she did the right thing should also stand up. Let's fight it out. Let's just do it. Threatening each other with hell does'nt serve us any better and it only worsens our situation. If its time to fight, we must fight. If its time to be silent, then, find our comfy nook and stay there. We fear civil war. Everybody wants peace. But if peace cannot be attained by peaceful means, then, there is no other way out of this mess but to just fight. Let's fight. Let's just lay it out.

De Venecia was mentioning Singapore as a model for us to follow. Yes, Singapore should be our model. And if that tiny island-state is our model, then, we must be ready to fight it out amongst ourselves. We must be ready for civil war. For Singapore did not attain its first world status without people shedding blood. No. Singapore underwent extreme social strife before it calmed down and before everybody sat down to work it out.

Its quite obvious that we are truly divided. We are divided on the way to solve a problem like Arroyo. Some think that a petition would work. Others believe that a military solution is the way to go. Personally, I believe that the military should really intervene in this and impose a civilian-military government to save the republic from total destruction.

I now dare the soldiers who criticize this administration: it is time to make history.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

On the Eve of Civil War

Mrs. Arroyo has just sealed her fate. By pardoning Erap today, she just made a big blunder. She just allowed all her enemies to band together against her. Arroyo, in effect, signed her death warrant.

Definitely, it will not be long before the camp of FVR, the Speaker, civil society, pseudo-civil society, revolutionaries, common people, businessmen, workers and middle classes will now have a rally point. And that rallying point will definitely revolve around the search for justice. Arroyo has just allowed the campaign against her to assume a new character, a new stage--that of being a fight against injustice. Its quite obvious that the ZTE probe, charges of corruption are all campaigns for the search for truth. Now, due to this granting of pardon, people will definitely campaign for justice. The next level will just be the struggle for peace.

I shudder at the thought of another revolt, this time, bloodier and more vicious than the previous EDSAs. It will not be long before forces wanting to overthrow this administration will unite and together call for the ouster of Gloria.

Who would now prevent collective resignation among her cabinet? This early, there are signs of another Hyatt 10 incident. I am not in the habit of betraying the trust of my sources, but definitely, some of GMA's cabinet are intending to resign. Obviously, the Ramos' camp will definitely resign from this administration. Ramos' interview before he left for Guandong China tells you that something is terribly wrong about what's happening now.

Danger signals

There's a serious rift in Philippine society now. The military is split in the middle. PMA classes are in serious struggles against each other. The ranks of generals have been seriously affected by the succession of bribery allegations. My source in the palace told me that some generals actually told the president that they will not receive the "cash gifts" they were being offered during their recent meeting at the Palace. Some even left the room after meeting with the president.

The Lower House is also split, with those who side with the Speaker and those with Arroyo. The Senate is likewise disunited with some for the administration and some in the opposition.

We have a disunited business community, most undecided on what to do with GMA and whether to continue supporting her. We have a police establishment that is likewise torn apart due to the mess left by the ex-PNP chief.

So, Dolorfino is right---we are in the eve of a civil war. It will not be long before these forces converge against Gloria.

Will we see Gloria occupying the place of Erap in the future? This eventuality is not remote.

Saturday, October 6, 2007

Omerta under the Arroyo administration

Madame Arroyo just signed a proclamation which effectively bars anybody from reading and probably, revealing military secrets. If I remember my law (Ateneo de Manila), there are existing penal provisions regarding this. Military secrets are part of state secrets and I think the president does not need to reiterate this fact. Such files in the US can only be declassified after 50 years.

The question is---what prompted Mrs. Arroyo to again "remind" us of this existing prohibitory provision in the RPC?

Two instances: one, the Tirso Danga incident and the impending retirement of Mr. Esperon. Just recently, Mrs. Arroyo went and reportedly pleaded with Danga not to reveal what happened during the controversial 2004 presidential elections. Danga belonged to the disgraced few who allegedly helped Mrs. Arroyo clinch the presidency. Wagging tongues say Mrs. Arroyo pleaded for her life in exchange for a position to Danga, who, for all intents and purposes, cannot be physically capable of doing any good for government due to his sickness.

Another instance--the impending retirement of Mr. Esperon, another personality linked to the scandal. Esperon's role during that election sealed his appointment to the highest military post. Esperon was instrumental in ensuring the victory of GMA against all odds. He reportedly used his military connections to gag the mouths of those involved in the massive cheating ops. Four months from now, he'll retire. Others like him were given government posts afterwards and this will also be the same fate for Esperon to buy his silence. The question that remains--will Esperon be gentleman enough to tell the truth about what happened?

Playing Gods

These people are playing gods. Drunk with power, they can swallow their integrity and honor for the sake of money. Graduates of the PMA, they were, but they act like the people owe them something. Being PMA plebes, they were taught to defer their own selves for the sake of the people who gave their hand-earned money for their education. But no. These people, especially those who now conspire with Arroyo to bastardize democracy in the Philippines, are shameful, spineless puppet idiots who act like they are mighty and high, but in truth, they are as shallow, ignorant, foolish and dumb as their principal.

Sick gods

Some still hope that lurking deep inside these gods' thick hides lies some goodness left. That the system has not entirely corrupted them. I notice that those who have been totally stripped of any good in their bodies and minds suffer serious diseases, like heart attacks, cancers, and any debilitating disease. Some suffer from delusions and stress-related illnesses. In truth, those who partake of GMA's regime all have this disease, and some hope, for the sake of the country, that this is still a curable one.

Lessons of History

Eventually, history teaches us that everytime man thinks of himself as a god, that's a sign that its time for him to fade away. History is always harsh against pseudo-omnicients. When a state behaves like a damned god, the True God suddenly appears to wipe it in the face of the earth. Such eventuality is not far-fetched in this regime. The True God is a paragon of truth and Filipinos deserve the truth. There will definitely come a time when God will forcefully open their mouths and wipe the word omerta from their bodies. Afterwards, they will be cast as shameful mistahs into the fiery fires of hell to suffer eternal punishment for making the lives of 86 million miserable.