Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Political stability in the Philippines: Post 2010 elections

Political stability is one of the things investors are looking for in the Philippines. With the impending victory of Liberal party standard bearer Noynoy Aquino, this is almost certain. However, this is the thing--Noynoy is surely facing rough waters because Mrs. Arroyo is now very certain to clinch the congressional post in Pampanga.

Aquino's campaign promise is simple--create an independent commission to prosecute Mrs. Arroyo. Will Aquino still do this? Will he be able to dismantle the huge mafia that Mrs. Arroyo created and has now become the biggest syndicate in the country?

Most of Arroyo's minions are still occupying sensitive posts in the bureaucracy with constitutionally mandated tenures. Net--Aquino will be hard pressed doing this.

Those who want change should focus now on determining how many Lakas and Kampi members won in their Congressional districts. A Congress dominated by Arroyo's henchmen will surely neutralize whatever gains Mr. Aquino will accomplish in the Executive front.

Mr. Aquino should have a very solid and strong support from the Lower and Upper Houses, to deter Arroyo from becoming Speaker and eventually Prime Minister, if cha-cha succeeds.

Likewise, the specter of Charter change looms in the horizon. Remember that there is now a law which mandates the election of concon members by October of this year. October, by the way, is the barangay elections.

Aquino can still effectively neutralize Arroyo by filling the Constitutional Convention with his allies and try to dominate the barangay system with his grassroots allies.

Likewise, if Roxas fails to get the vice presidential post, then, Binay will be Aquino's "thorn" since Binay is expected to gun for a higher post after six years.

What should be the major focus now is how the Liberals performed in the Congressional race. The Liberal Party should be the dominant political party. Otherwise, the next six years will again be a destabilized one.