Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Political stability in the Philippines: Post 2010 elections
Aquino's campaign promise is simple--create an independent commission to prosecute Mrs. Arroyo. Will Aquino still do this? Will he be able to dismantle the huge mafia that Mrs. Arroyo created and has now become the biggest syndicate in the country?
Most of Arroyo's minions are still occupying sensitive posts in the bureaucracy with constitutionally mandated tenures. Net--Aquino will be hard pressed doing this.
Mr. Aquino should have a very solid and strong support from the Lower and Upper Houses, to deter Arroyo from becoming Speaker and eventually Prime Minister, if cha-cha succeeds.
Likewise, the specter of Charter change looms in the horizon. Remember that there is now a law which mandates the election of concon members by October of this year. October, by the way, is the barangay elections.
Aquino can still effectively neutralize Arroyo by filling the Constitutional Convention with his allies and try to dominate the barangay system with his grassroots allies.
Likewise, if Roxas fails to get the vice presidential post, then, Binay will be Aquino's "thorn" since Binay is expected to gun for a higher post after six years.
What should be the major focus now is how the Liberals performed in the Congressional race. The Liberal Party should be the dominant political party. Otherwise, the next six years will again be a destabilized one.