Thursday, July 31, 2014

Coup as a means of last resort

Will soldiers of this beleaguered Republic move against the Aquino administration just because of DAP? Is the issue so serious to merit an unconstitutional move? Will soldiers do a coup for ideological reasons? Review history and you'll surely know the answer.

Political pundits will agree with me that our military,our soldiery, has not matured ideologically as what militaries in Bolivia, Cuba, Brazil or even, Argentina. If at all, there is just probably less than one percent of the military establishment who probably harbors messianic thoughts. Our military is not an ideological power whose members from the top and the middle are easily convinced of the possibility or as they say, relevance of moving against the established order.

The military establishment right now remains a very traditional institution. What I meant with this observation is that there is no one among junior or senior level officers who is as charismatic and as respected as say, a honasan or a Trillianes before, who can command and do some daring publicity stunts.

Okey, dare this presumption. Let us say that there is a group which is ideologically driven and is highly influential among the troops. Let us say that they have a plan and are armed.

The question really is the extent of their determination to pursue their ideological goal. For a soldier to move against the Convention, he or she must have been very convinced or highly motivated to turn his gun against the very state he is supposed to protect and serve for all his life.

Likewise, for these same minded soldiers to group themselves together and use the present political scandals as reasons to launch something extra constitutional is possible, yes, but, in the end, highly unlikely.

There is no revolutionary situation to speak of, no cause of action so to speak which is deathly serious  that needs a coup d'├ętat as a rectification measure. For one, there is this China threat to speak of,and a raging insurgency to contend with. These are things which keeps the military busy.

Will it benefit the country if soldiers raise their voices against the presidency? Historical experience show that coups affect the economy, and discourages investments. Will it be for the welfare of the many that soldiers intervene to referee the ongoing wranglings between and among political groups?

In Thailand, this is the case. They have a different setup though, because there is the existence of a monarchy that serves as a permanent balance in their system. They can very well do that considering that even if they abolish parliament, there is a monarch that assumes power. Governmental bureacracy will continue operations.

Malaysia, at one point in its history, did this, allow the military to intervene to protect the State from the entry of Communism. They can very well do that because of the setup of their government--they are a confederated State. If the national government fails to function properly, the bureaucracy will not be affected because every single state follows its own processes.

In our case, there is no one to tend the store so to speak, if a destabilization happens.