Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Weakened Philippine opposition opens possibility of a Dark Horse running for the presidency come 2016

Will they all be out of power come 2016?
There is no doubt about it---the only opposition against the existing or prevailing dispensation is the one being handled by former president Joseph Estrada and to some extent, those belonging to the camp of vice president Jejomar Binay.

The expected "bang bang" from the Nationalista Party or the Nationalist People's Coalition is a dud. Most personalities connected with the NP or the NPC mouth statements similar with those of Palace spokespersons Edwin Lacierda or Sonny Coloma.

At this point, the only "opposition" in the strictest sense of the word, is simply the Bagong Alyansang Makabayan, which is the only party with an authentic political platform. All the other so-called "political opposition" are duds or fakes.

Anyway, the "legal opposition" is being decimated slowly but surely by forces close to the administration, and some say, even by forces within the opposition who want to control it.

Enrile, as I said, is in jail. Binay is being cut down publicly and his political enemies are thinking of filing criminal cases against him to prevent him from running, and eventually, winning the presidency come 2016.

Estrada, meanwhile, is said to be on his way out come January. The SC decision will be announced prior to the Papal visit, to manage whatever "angry" responses coming from the Erap camp.

Will the Erap camp treat this lightly?

Meanwhile, another criminal case was filed against the Binays in the hopes of getting him behind bars before April of 2015. Why April? Because if Binay is not in jail by that time, his financiers will still recover their senses and if he announces formally a party which will back him up come that month, then, he has a fighting chance to win 2016.

Some say, these anti-Binay attacks are all meant to destroy his mass base. Wrong. These attacks are meant to dissuade those who want to finance his run. Even a popular candidate such as Binay will lose if he does not have the money to oil his machinery. That's realpolitik.

Anyway, it does not bode well for Philippine democracy if all these things happen. A weakened opposition is not reflective of a true democratic society.

However, this brings us to our main subject--the emergence of a dark horse.

The dark horse is reputedly someone coming from the NP or the Nacionalista Party. I am not at liberty of really putting his or her name here but suffice it to say, 2016 will be a repeat of both 1992 and 2010, with some modifications---the dark horse has a strong chance of clinching the post, to the surprise of those inside the Aquino administration.