Friday, April 24, 2015

The Political Game in the Philippines--what's in store in the next few months

The political scene is starting to heat up, with different groups talking with each other, ostensibly about alliances, mostly temporary, yet with the end view of arriving at win-win solutions.

Obviously these political meetings will not be about discussing China's intrusions into Philippine territory, or how to improve the lives of the poor, no, far from it. The staple talk would simply be how best these personalities would protect their individual interests or what administration would be able to protect the wealth of the already wealthy. Even after 2016 or whoever emerges as the winner out of that intramural, the situation  of the Filipino would remain dismal, even worse than before.

Talks about the possible Mar Roxas-Grace Poe tandem has been waifing in the air since last year. That thing about a possible adoption of Rudy Duterte as an LP candidate is just something thrown to confuse the public about what Lakas really intended to do.

Notice that the political landscape has changed drastically during the past six years. Honestly, there is no more dominant party. Of course, the LP can claim to be the biggest, yet, its influence is in question. You may have the largest number of Congressmen at your stable, but how many of them are strong enough, and influential enough to turn the tide over and help the sagging popularity of the LP administration candidate?

That Mar Roxas-Grace Poe tandem is intended to help Roxas more than Poe. Roxas' numbers are going the abysmal route and his political backers are hoping that Poe's strong "goodwill" with the people would be sufficient to lift Roxas up the ladder more.

The LP's game plan is simply create an acceptable public perception of Roxas' winnability and their operators would take care of the rest. Between the two, this election is crucial for Roxas because this is his last try and failure will simply end his political career.

If Mar-Poe does come on board, the priority will be Mar's campaign more than Poe's because even if she loses the vice presidential run, she still has that at least three more years as a Senator.

The problem with that thinking is the fact that it is highly uncertain if Poe has the "pulling power", strong enough to create a scenario which puts Roxas at level footing with frontrunner Vice president Jejomar Binay. The only political phenom that has the pulling power is former president Joseph Estrada. He has this ability that convinces people to support his endorsement.

Poe doesn't have that. What she enjoys right now is a good perception as a Senator, and a possible leader, but this can change drastically as election nears.

Now, would the blessing and endorsement of Pnoy matter to push Mar up and away from possible defeat? A survey shows that Pnoy's endorsement will not change the political fate of Mar. However, that would be a sign to several people occupying sensitive posts in the bureaucracy to begin "producing" for Mar. What this means is what resigned Customs chief John Sevilla said during his press con---that the Customs would be used by several political forces for fund-raising purposes.

This means simply that the next remaining months would surely rev the throttle for more corruption in government just to shore up finances to support and force a Mar presidency.