Elite groups are fighting against each other for the biggest booty ever in Philippine History--control over a trillion pesos worth of resources. With an investment of just 2 billion pesos (for a Presidential candidate), one could earn a triple or even a hundred times if his bet succeeds in clinching the top Executive post.
Wittingly or unwittingly, these groups have gone exactly overboard by turning this election into an emotional one. When the Liberal Party and their non-LP cohorts, Senators Cayetano, Trillanes and Pimentel attacked Vice president Binay, they wittingly or unwittingly made this election, personal rather than purely political. Not only did they tried to destroy the credibility of their political enemy, they foolishly dragged other personalities in the fray, which could prove disastrous not just to their individual political careers but more so, to the general conduct of the 2016 Presidential elections in particular.
Now, who will believe that Binay will lose this election fair and square, when at a very early stage, these personalities have spent not just their time but their financial resources just to derail the campaign of Binay for the presidency? These political attacks, at this very early, have surely backfired.
Yes, it did its goal of portraying Binay's ratings going South, but without manipulating results to show another candidate emerging from the woodwork. The people are not stupid. They know what is happening. Who will then believe of a Binay loss now that the people knew that these elite groups have conspired against him and who will not believe that these groups paid and even manipulated election results just to stop Binay from winning?
What would prevent Binay's supporters from engaging in extra-constitutional means in 2016? None. The same way goes to supporters of Poe. They were made to believe that Poe's numbers are improving and are reflective of a general sentiment of support. They don't know that Poe's ratings can be likened to a balloon ready to explode before their faces anytime soon. Why? Because their candidate's true nature is farthest from her public persona and the minute this is exposed, this would surely be very big.
Of course, the LP cannot, by conscience, claim victory for Mar because no one would believe it. This early, Roxas is a goner. Ask anyone. Even if the LP publishes a favorable survey result, it would be very hard for them to justify a Roxas win. A Roxas win is to be perceived as a fraud, a manipulation.
If Roxas wins, groups will militate. If Binay loses, people will wage a people's revolt. If Poe wins, Binay's camp will surely arm themselves and militate. If Poe loses, her segment of supporters will cry fraud.
No one among these three candidates will bulge. Why? Because their financial backers are gung-ho to see their respective investments bear fruit. Behind every candidate lurks carpetbaggers who will risk billions just to get power over the people's purse.
Eventually, if not a direct and armed confrontation, this will probably result to an entendre or compromise among these elite groups just to avoid a vacuum of power.