Why Mar Roxas would never get that rock star status

"Rock Star status"

The urban dictionary says this term means "just another way of saying awesome. or something insanely cool. impressive."

Just recently, thousands of Filipinos online lambasted Mar Roxas' ad once again, describing it as "trash" and even castigated the actors and actresses who lent their time just to show their support behind him.

One netizen even criticized what the hell ABS-CBN import stars Bill Crawford, JayR and another forgettable name were asked to endorse Roxas when these three are American citizens. Our laws forbade foreigners from commenting on our politics.

I pity Mar. I met the guy several years ago, and frankly, he means well. He's a nice guy.

I think he is just being poorly managed. Those Ayala advertising hotshots are really messing up things for him. They probably believed that someone like Roxas could actually be made a "rock star", just like how Chiz Escudero's publicists created Grace Poe, or how media now thinks Davao city mayor and now presidential candidate Rody Duterte is. Of course, not to mention Vice president Jejomar Binay whose campaign, while not as bombastic as that of Poe's or Duterte's is considered "effective" because if you ask ordinary people, they will tell you what surveys are trying to conceal from us. Anyway, that's another story.

Four things why Mar would never be rock star material.

First, those old enough to have encountered or met her forebears like Gerry Roxas would always compare him with his deceased father. Gerry was a charismatic individual, tough, intelligent and a darling of the press. Mar is even compared to the late Dinggoy Roxas, his brother who also died in 1993. Gerry and Dinggoy had impressive records as Congressmen and Senator. That leads us to the second reason..

The second reason is that Mar did not surpass or even equalled the performance of his father and brother, who were both seasoned politicians. Yes, he has been in public service since his brother died but lacks the charisma of the two. You cannot fault Mar that--he was not molded to become a politician. He was a banker. He is an investment guy and one main thing about these types of guy is that they are not born leaders--they are born to sell their principals, not themselves. They think before they act, and therefore, lack what many in business say, "gut feel". Mar is not a gut player.  And that, again, leads us to the third reason.

Politics is for the dim witted. Politics is for those who has the guts, the feel of the crowd, the ability to think fast and decide with firmness and with resolve. No such thing with Mar. For him, things should be studied carefully, something which weakens him and the public's perception of him, for he does not possess leadership qualities.

That explains why, at every post Mar occupied during his entire career, there is no singular thing which he did that etched in the minds of the public. Mar Roxas was never been as impressive as an Executive not like say Cesar Purisima, or when he was DILG, not even near greatness as that of his predecessors (Puno and Robredo) or when he was Congressman, nothing as impressive even compared with another reluctant politician, Quezon Congressman Erin Tanada. That leads us to the fourth and last reason why his handlers are getting the heat and obviously now scampering to find something that would make Mar "shine" and that is...

Mar Roxas does not have a narrative that would endear him to his publics. He wants the public to think that he is for them, when he surely is not. He was not born poor, and the public knows he's filthy rich.

There is no narrative about Roxas except his faults. Narratives are social currencies which people use to exchange ideas, thoughts and opinions, and in politics, that is most important.

It would have been nice if Roxas ran and won a local executive post and implemented his brilliant ideas there. That is a narrative.

It would have been even nicer had Roxas chose to fight his fellow Oligarchs in socio-economic issues such as telecomms, public services, etal. The thing is Roxas is perceived as one of the oligarchs that continually oppress the people. Worse, he really acts like that. Read his pronouncements. Even the way he speaks exude the brashness and the conoistic tone which people find offensive.

With this, Roxas is being blamed for every single fault there is because he is perceived to be deeply entrenched in the system, a system so rotten and a system which people want to change for so long.

Mar needs to break out of this mold. Mar needs to be a rebel. And probably, people would begin to listen once more and would start looking at him again, this time, without disdain.

Why Rody Duterte did not file his COC for the Presidency

BREAKING NEWS! Like what I told you in my earlier posts, Davao City mayor Rody Duterte just filed his COC for the presidency in the nick of time. He flew from Palawan, went straight to Manila Hotel and after a few minutes, rode a car and went straight to the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) offices in Manila. 

Nah...that's not what happened. Duterte flew in and went straight to Manila Hotel to grant interviews. He says he is not filing for the presidency, and can you blame him?

We have a mama's boy and a long time dreamer (Mar Roxas), a suspected thief (Binay), a foreigner (Poe), a mental case who will definitely sign a declaration of war against China the minute she gets elected (Santiago), a formerly accused corrupt Congressman (Syjuco), a former Ambassador who nearly went toe-to-toe with a former mayor now aspiring to become Senator (Seneres), a barangay captain (Dino), a man called by aliens, another called by Lucifer/Satan, another one called by god, some by angels, another chief of the intergalactic federation and a Martian--all aspiring for the top post.

You---do you want to see your name included in this list? Now, will you blame Davao mayor Rody Duterte for not filing his Certificate of Candidacy?

Grace Poe using Pnoy's "necropolitical" inspired script in 2009 to guarantee victory in 2016

The Poe Strip Tease Show—acutely similar with that of Pnoy’s Necropolitical Strategy in 2009.

Grace Poe is always saying that the more people throw dirt at her, the more determined she becomes to finally stake her political future and run for the presidency. Honestly, I find her pronouncements rather mayabang.

Read this and you'll find that Poe's candidacy is actually material only in delimiting the growth of Mar Roxas' mass base. A Poe candidacy will affect Roxas' more than it does to Binay's.

The camp of Senator Grace Poe is reputedly crafting a platform of governance. Poe claims that she is in consultation with different groups. These people are reportedly giving her information about what ails Philippine society at the same time, advising her on the things needed to be accomplished for a better society.

While at the same time saying that she is still undecided and is still thinking of running for president or not come 2016.

Bull. Crap.

This slow strip show is not at all amusing. Why the tease, Ms. Poe-Llamanzares? Why not say outright that you are running for higher office? If the reason is you’re afraid of opening yourself up for criticism, it will surely happen anyway before, during or surely after you file your CoC this October. That’s part of the game. Unless, of course, you’re deathly afraid of being haunted by the specter of an infraction you even admitted publicly last 2013?

Poe’s handlers are trying to do the same exact formula they used for then Senator Benigno Aquino III in 2009. Initial calls for Pnoy’s candidacy came shortly after her mother was buried. It escalated to a crescendo months before October of 2009, and the same events were reported to media—Pnoy billeting himself in a seminary with priests and nuns with him. Stories about his parents were re-published. Pnoy’s life was put on the spot, with emphasis on his being “honest” and of being “different from his former professor, Gloria Arroyo”.  Pnoy was even reported to have been in consultation with different groups to form a platform of governance.

The same script is being followed now. Poe is reportedly in consultation with groups. Poe, in her public speeches, says that she is still “in contemplation”, alluding to Pnoy’s “self-imposed” seminary “live-in” in 2009.

Pnoy used necropolitics in his way to electoral victory. Grace Poe is also doing it, invoking the name of her dear departed and popular father to advance her own personal and political interests.

In her press conferences, Poe is peppering them with necropolitical language such as “according to my father”, and using her adoptive mother, Susan Roces as a shield against integrity attacks. Knowing her lineage and how conservative the Cruz (Roces) family is, such a tactic is definitely not welcome at all.

The fact is—in the provinces, Grace Poe posters with her dead father have been plastered all over along major highways. Is that the demeanor of a person who is not running for office? Poe is again, using the name of her dead adoptive father, FPJ, in furthering her own selfish political ambition.

Honestly, what is Grace Poe fighting for? By clinching the number 1 spot in the Senatorial race, that is enough vindication already for her father.  By taking on the causes of the people thru legislation, Poe has probably made her father happy. Then, why trouble with other matters such as this run for the presidency?

Poe’s legislative record is as spotty as her true genealogy. Review the bills that she filed and every single one is still pending before Congress. Nothing has been made into law yet, and now she claims that she is ready for a bigger and higher calling?

Bull. Crap.

For those who think that attacking Poe benefits Binay or Mar, think again. If Poe decides not to run for the presidency, that is actually not entirely okay for both candidates. A one-on-one would surely increase the possibility of that eventually turning into an armed confrontation later. Do you think Mar’s camp would allow a Binay win? That also applies with the Binay’s. Do you sincerely believe that Binay would not fight for his right for the presidency? 2016 is an opportunity for both, and likewise, the biggest political risk for both. The one who loses here goes straight to retirement. No one has actually recovered from a serious loss like this. Estrada recovered because he was unduly and inhumanely persecuted and ousted from power. Estrada’s camp successfully established the belief of restitution to power as a form of justice for the injustice which his political enemies did to him. In this case, a defeat for Binay or Mar means retirement from politics. Defeat means the end of a career.

A third force avoids such a possibility from happening. The more personalities throwing their hats unto the ring, the lesser possibility of 2016 eventually going to the dogs, so to speak.

Now, will a Poe eat the constituency of Binay? Not a chance. Everyone knows how valuable having a solid mass constituency is. Poe has none. She is perceived to be a strong candidate because of the support of a segment of the middle class, but every astute political observer knows this is entirely not enough to guarantee victory.

It is more likely that Mar’s base will surely become smaller still if Poe runs for the presidency. Poe and Mar share the same constituency. Both will surely cancel out in the end game. Who will benefit in the end is Escudero. Poe’s popularity will lift Escudero’s while affecting Mar’s. And in a 3-party fight or a multi-party fight, it is Binay who is expected to win.

2016 Presidential Elections could lead to True Change in Philippine society

Elite groups are fighting against each other for the biggest booty ever in Philippine History--control over a trillion pesos worth of resources. With an investment of just 2 billion pesos (for a Presidential candidate), one could earn a triple or even a hundred times if his bet succeeds in clinching the top Executive post.

Wittingly or unwittingly, these groups have gone exactly overboard by turning this election into an emotional one. When the Liberal Party and their non-LP cohorts, Senators Cayetano, Trillanes and Pimentel attacked Vice president Binay, they wittingly or unwittingly made this election, personal rather than purely political. Not only did they tried to destroy the credibility of their political enemy, they foolishly dragged other personalities in the fray, which could prove disastrous not just to their individual political careers but more so, to the general conduct of the 2016 Presidential elections in particular.

Now, who will believe that Binay will lose this election fair and square, when at a very early stage, these personalities have spent not just their time but their financial resources just to derail the campaign of Binay for the presidency? These political attacks, at this very early, have surely backfired.

Yes, it did its goal of portraying Binay's ratings going South, but without manipulating results to show another candidate emerging from the woodwork. The people are not stupid. They know what is happening. Who will then believe of a Binay loss now that the people knew that these elite groups have conspired against him and who will not believe that these groups paid and even manipulated election results just to stop Binay from winning?

What would prevent Binay's supporters from engaging in extra-constitutional means in 2016? None. The same way goes to supporters of Poe. They were made to believe that Poe's numbers are improving and are reflective of a general sentiment of support. They don't know that Poe's ratings can be likened to a balloon ready to explode before their faces anytime soon. Why? Because their candidate's true nature is farthest from her public persona and the minute this is exposed, this would surely be very big.

Of course, the LP cannot, by conscience, claim victory for Mar because no one would believe it. This early, Roxas is a goner. Ask anyone. Even if the LP publishes a favorable survey result, it would be very hard for them to justify a Roxas win. A Roxas win is to be perceived as a fraud, a manipulation.

If Roxas wins, groups will militate. If Binay loses, people will wage a people's revolt. If Poe wins, Binay's camp will surely arm themselves and militate. If Poe loses, her segment of supporters will cry fraud.

No one among these three candidates will bulge. Why? Because their financial backers are gung-ho to see their respective investments bear fruit. Behind every candidate lurks carpetbaggers who will risk billions just to get power over the people's purse.

Eventually, if not a direct and armed confrontation, this will probably result to an entendre or compromise among these elite groups just to avoid a vacuum of power. 

The Honesty of Grace Poe and Mar Roxas

In one of the ANC interviews, Senator Serge Osmena articulated one of the observations of the Liberal party on the winnability of their preferred candidate, Mar Roxas. Osmena says, the reason why Pnoy won in the 2010 elections was his honesty. Roxas, says Osmena, has that quality.

Really?

Let me put forth some questions to Mr. Roxas and this he should answer with utmost candor and honesty.

1. Can you tell us, Mr. Roxas, who are your financial backers? Does it include mining firms and oligarchs such as the Ayalas who want to maintain their hold in government to corner juicy real estate contracts and maintain themselves in wealth?

2. Will you tell us Mr. Roxas what happened to the DOTC and why did this agency entered into many questionable contracts that are disadvantageous to government?

3. Will you honestly tell us, Mr. Roxas why jueteng lords still lord it over the provinces and not one big fish was caught during your term as DILG chief?

4. Are you willing to share with us, Mr. Roxas what things did you promise to your financial backers the moment you win the post come 2016?

5. Are you really very willing to share with us, Mr. Roxas if you are truly for the restoration of peace in Mindanao and that you support wholeheartedly the BBL?

I will wait for Mr. Roxas' response.

As to Grace Poe, I will ask her just four (4) things and I'll be very excited to wait for her answer:

1. What were the things that you and Pnoy talked about that changed your mind about running for a higher office come 2016? Does it include rewards to be given to the many companies of your husband, Mr. Llavanzares?

2. What prodded you to change your surname from Poe-Llavanzares to just Poe? Are you ashamed of the surname of your husband?

3. Are you honest enough to tell us, please, Mrs. Llavanzares, what did you do in the states and if you really satisfy the residency requirements needed for you to aspire for the presidency?

4. Honestly, Mrs. Llavanzares, do you believe you are prepared for this? Or you just agreed to be used as a tool by the Liberals to destroy the chances of the vice president and muddle the political pond, anyway, even if you lose, you still have four more years to go before you say goodbye as Senator?

Opps! I want to ask ONE (1) MORE QUESTION...

5. Tell us please Mrs. Llavanzares if you're not ashamed in USING the surname of your popular father to advance your own SELFISH political ambition? Are you certain that you have the blessing of your surrogate mother, Mrs. Susan Roces? Why do you go the alternate way and not emulate what Mrs. Roces did when she refused to be influenced by political forces and thumbed down suggestions of her to run for public office?

Sir, Senator Serge Osmena, sige nga, let these two people prove how honest they are.

Our President for 2016

By 2016, some forty million Filipinos will again go to the polls to vote for their president. Fifty one percent of these millions belong to the 18-34 years old age group, mostly high school graduates, working mostly in service, industrial and agricultural sectors and are highly mobile.

They have just three issues in mind: rising costs of everything, corruption in government and joblessness. These are issues which affect the gut and have been issues since this Republic came to being.

Again, voters will elect those who they think understand their predicament, someone with a very practical solution to pressing daily issues, and someone who provides the hope that many of these passive survivors need to hear, and cling themselves into.

Those who aspire for the top post will try to amplify their visions and themselves before the media. Many of them will use the internet to plead for the support of the Intelligentsia while use traditional modes of contact with most of those who will vote.

Those who successfully connected themselves with parents will definitely win. Those who animate the minds of the influencers will win.

If elections are held today, Vice President Jejomar Binay is the best man to beat every single one of those who dream of occupying Bahay Pangarap, one of them Mar Roxas.

Why Binay? Because people see in him something which they have. They see in him not just a visionary but a hard worker. He worked himself up. He belonged to the masses and someone even think that he is like Hugo Chavez.

How about Mar Roxas? Well, if he can shed his Mestizo skin, be forthwith, ask his friends to stop pressing private firms for reportedly election funds, and be as honest as possible in discussing his vision for the country, then, maybe, just maybe, he increases his chances for the top plum.

There are others who deserve a break.

Manny Villar remains a highly probable candidate. Bongbong Marcos, to my mind, has the qualities of a great leader and president. Unknown to many, Bongbong Marcos is a radical and an iconic figure. He could propel the country towards greatness again.

For our next president, we need both a popular and a strong willed individual. Popular because he uses that to justify his actions. Strong willed because he needs that for the bureaucracy to toe the line and for everyone to fear him and lessen the incidence of graft and corruption.

Its OFFICIAL--MAR ROXAS is LIBERAL PARTY STANDARD BEARER

In an interview today, Liberal Party Chairman and former Senate President Franklin Drilon revealed that their party already nominated Senator Mar Roxas as their official standard bearer for the 2010 elections.

Drilon made the announcement in an interview by Ted Failon and Ina Reformina over at DZMM, 530 khz.

Drilon said the National Committee of the Liberal Party already decided that Mar Roxas will bear the party colors come the elections and that should, Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III decides to run, Drilon said that he'll be running as vice president.

Drilon also lambasted Gary Olivar, one of Mrs. Arroyo's spokesperson, for meddling in party affairs. Olivar is one of Mike Defensor's, a former Liberal, dogs.

So, there's no more dispute then. Some of the names which the Liberal Party is fielding includes:

1. Franklin Drilon
2. Ruffy Biazon
3. Risa Hontiveros
4. Leah Navarro
5. Cory Quirino
6. Neri Acosta

Mar Roxas redeemed himself

I just received an email from Amado Fores from the Marroxas2010 movement and he says that Gary and Lorelie Fernandez, parents of the quintuplets who went to the radio program of Raffy Tulfo (always listen to "Wanted sa Radyo" over DZXL, 2-4pm. Tulfo's program is really great! I commend Raffy Tulfo for fighting for the causes of the oppressed. Continue your advocacy Mr. Tulfo!) to ask for help.

The couple alleged that Mar Roxas reportedly abandoned them and just gave 20,000 pesos as financial assistance. Two of the five babies died. Two of the remaining three babies are reportedly sick and being assisted right now by the Jose Reyes Memorial Hospital, courtesy of Raffy Tulfo.

Last week, the couple wrote to Mar Roxas and apologized. Fores sent me a press release and I will publish this in full here. Finally, Roxas redeemed himself in this one.

And that's the way t go---help the couple stand on their own two feet by training them to have their own livelihood project. Also, I think it's pertinent for Mar Roxas to establish a FOUNDATION for those similarly situated couples so that they'll not suffer the same way this couple did.

Posted: 21 Aug 2009 08:57 AM PDTGary and Lorita Fernandez, parents of the
three remaining quintuplets born in April this year who received help from
Senator Mar Roxas and his girlfriend Korina Sanchez, last night apologized to
Roxas and Ms. Sanchez for criticisms labeled at them by some sectors after the
Fernandez couple sought financial help for further medical treatment of one of
the babies in a radio station last Tuesday.

In a letter to Roxas signed by Lorita Fernandez, the couple said they never criticized the senator and Ms. Sanchez but rather sought help from an anchor of a radio station because one of their children could be suffering from hydrocephalus.

"Kami pong mag-asawa ay humihingi ng paumanhin sa nangyaring kontrobersiya laban po sa inyo ngayon. Wala po kaming intensyon na siraan kayo (We apologize for the controversy we generated. We have no intention to besmirch your name)," said the couple in their letter to Roxas.In response, Roxas said the couple had nothing to apologize for, saying he understood the impatience that couples like them undergo because of the extreme poverty they live in.

"Nalulungkot ako na talagang sa hirap ng buhay ngayon, maraming pamilya gaya ni Gary at Lorita ang kailangang bigyan ng tulong pinansyal (I feel sad that there are couples like Gary and Lorita who really need financial assistance because of their poverty)," Roxas said.

"Nakausap ko na sila Gary at Lori at nainitindihan nilang mas mabuting maturuan silang magtayo ng sariling kabuhayan kesa sa umasa na lang sa tulong ng iba (I have talked to Gary and Lori and they understood that our approach which is to help them gain their own livelihood is better than relying on help from others)," he added.In their letter, the couple admitted they felt bad towards the social welfare officer assigned to assist them, thus they resorted to seeking help from a radio anchor, who in turn misinterpreted it as abandonment of the couple and their children despite all the assistance they already received.
"Kami po’y humingi ng tulong dahil kailangan po ng suporta ng mga bata … lalo na po sa pagpapagamot ni Marie Loralaine at Wenna Mavinia (We sought help for further support for our children .. especially for medication for Marie Loralaine and Wenna Mavinia)," the couple said.
"Wala po kaming masamang sinabi laban po sa inyo. Ang lahat ng negatibo ay pawang mga kumento (We did not say anything against you. All the negatives were just commentaries)” of the radio anchor, they added. “Alam po naming na sa lahat ng nilapitan naming nu’ng nanganak ako ay walang unang tumulong at nakinig kundi kayo. Kaya’t gusto pos ana naming kayo pasalamatan ng personal (We know that you were the only one who helped us immediately when I gave birth. That’s why we wanted to thank you personally)," Lorita said.Roxas’ chief-of- staff, Atty. Blas Viterbo, said the senator assigned a social welfare officer to assist the couple after taking care of the hospitalization and medical care for the quintuplets, two of who died from sepsis despite extra medical attention and medication paid for by Roxas and Ms. Sanchez. Until now, sepsis is a common cause of death among Filipino babies
born under similar circumstances of poor parents and multiple baby births.
The social welfare officer, Ms. Menchie Silvestre, had advised Roxas and Ms. Sanchez that it would be best to spare the Fernandez couple from more cash gifts and recommended that the couple be given livelihood training instead so they can raise their children without relying on financial help from others.
Roxas said he supports Ms. Silvestre’s advice in the handling of the couple, but assured them he continues to monitor their situation and will help them gain their own means of livelihood.
"Hindi ko sila pababayaan (I will take care of them)," he said.

Quintuplets left to die by Mar Roxas

It seems that even Liberal Party president and aspirant for the top post, Mar Roxas has been afflicted with the trapo way of ngako politics. And this my friends, is truly disapppointing. Read on...

A few months ago, Mrs. Lorie Fernandez gave birth to quintuplets at a Manila hospital. The babies were put under intensive care since they were born premature. They asked for the media's help since the family is so poor, they can't afford the 25,000 pesos worth of medicines that the babies need to save them from death.

Out came Senator and presidentiable Mar Roxas like a knight in shining armor. He went to the hospital with his fiance ABS-CBN news anchor Korina Sanchez. The couple gave the family baby's clothes, some cans of baby's milk and 20,000 pesos as financial assistance. But, not after taking some photos with the quintuplets and plastering the news all over town in tabloids, newspapers, radio and television. Roxas reportedly told the family that help is on the way and he'll continue to support the financial needs of the impoverished family.

A few days or weeks later, two of the babies, Korina Ysabel and Marie Loralaine, died due to complications and lack of medical support. Only three babies---Sara, Erika and Wenna Mavinia--continue to stay alive due to help from private individuals. Still, expenses remain very high.

Mr. Gary Fernandez, father of the quintuplets, said that they called Senator Roxas and the senator was always, always cannot be reached. They waited for his help but nothing came. Sa yaman at karangyaan ni Mar Roxas, ang nagawa lamang na tulong ng kagalang-galang na senador ay magbigay ng 20,000 pesos sa isang pamilyang kailangang-kailangan ang kanilang tulong.

The remaining three kids are under serious condition in a Manila hospital because two of the babies were diagnosed with hernia. They need immediate medical attention, particularly a cranial scan.

Gary Fernandez, the babie's father said he was truly disappointed with Mar Roxas, who sought his family and expressed desire to help them. After a full media conference with them, and taking their photos with the Senator which were plastered as banner stories in newspapers and television, Gary said they were just given 20,000 pesos and some clothes and baby's milk by the Senator. Roxas reportedly assured them of his help but, until now, nothing came out of that promise of assistance.

Gary said his two babies could have been saved from death, had Roxas fulfilled his promise of at least helping them raise funds for the medical expenses. Medicines for the babies cost 25,000 each per vial, and they were not able to raise the amount.

Yesterday, help continues to pour in for the Fernandez family from callers and fans of Raffy Tulfo in the radio show Wanted over DZXL (558 khz, 2-4pm). Callers from as far as Saudi Arabia heard of the family's pleas and OFWs pitched in and gave funds. The show generated more than 35,000 pesos in just one day, more than the 20,000 pesos given to the family by a billionaire politician.

Yan na nga ba ang sinasabi ko eh. Ngayon pa lang, hindi na makatulong. Pano mo pa aasahan yan pagka nakapuwesto na sa Malakanyang. Milyon-milyon ang ginagastos ni Senator Mar Roxas sa mga TV at radio ads niya, hindi man lang siya makapagbigay ng kahit kakarimpot lamang para sa mga tunay na nangangailangan.

Maramdamin ang TV commercial ni Mar at i-engganyo pa ang madla na lumaban. Pero, heto ngang pamilya na pilit lumalaban para mabuhay ang kanilang mga anak ay hindi nga natulungan ni Mar, isa lang pamilya sa milyon-milyong iba pang nagdurusa, pano niya sasabihing karapat-dapat siyang maging pangulo ng bansang ito?

Mr. Roxas, sa bilyong pisong kayamanan ng iyong pamilya, sana man lang nagdamot ka ng kaunting pantulong sa pamilyang Fernandez. Halagang 20,000 pesos lang ba ang kaya mo para sa tunay na nangangailangan na buhay ng kanilang mga sanggol ang nakataya?

For Filipinos abroad and friends of Filipinos who want to help these quintuplets, please, I ask of you, please help them. Listen to the radio program of Raffy Tulfo today at 2-2:30pm over at DZXL 558 Khz " Wanted sa Radyo" and take down the details of how you could help this family. The moral lesson in this case is simply don't trust politicians who want to be president.

Third Force sure to win Presidency in 2010

In an election where about 34.4 Million (80% out of 43 million registered voters) are expected to cast their votes, anything is possible. In a two party fight, a presidentiable needs 51% or 17.5Million votes to win. However, in a multi-party fight, the best that a presidentiable needs is about 6-7 million votes to snatch the crown.

Of course, the likely scenario come 2010 is a multi-pronged fight among numerous parties. In that case, a presidentiable needs only to spend an amount equivalent to running as a senator. He doesn’t need billions to waste in these elections. He just needs to spend it wisely.

Now, in a tight race such as this, you need a backbone and that is a strong personal network of local executives. Since there would be an inter-locking of interests, constituencies and agendum, a solid base of local executives and organizations is needed. If, for example, a candidate already has this, expect him to win single-handedly than the others. More likely, those who would depend largely on party machinery would surely not make the grade since, in this scenario, victory would depend on the personal network of supporters of the candidate, rather than sheer party power.

That's why, Teodoro does not have a Chinaman's chance of winning the elections if pitted against Estrada and possibly, Mar Roxas. Estrada has a solid mass base of support, a mix of fans and supporters gained from years as a traditional politician. Roxas, meanwhile, also has a very solid base of support, gained through years of running as senator. His 18 million is nothing to sneeze at and granted that he gets just a fraction of this, which is still substantial to allow him to win.Teodoro, meanwhile, would rely on sheer strength of the administration party particularly in resources since this would mean more candies thrown at the sidelines instead of crumbs by other parties.

Yet, in honest-to-goodness elections, Teodoro's antics would probably go to waste since, in the final analysis, local politicians would think of their personal survival first before minding national campaigners like Teodoro. Ultimately, Teodoro would have to rely on his personal network, which, unfortunately, he doesn’t have. He hasn’t campaigned on a national basis and does not have a sterling record running a national campaign. Hence, he stands to suffer the same fate as that of former Defense secretary Renato de Villa, should he insists on running despite not being the standard bearer.

Now, we go to De Castro. De Castro just ran twice---first as Senator and then vice president. Question---can we now say that De Castro has a solid personal constituency of his own? It's quite doubtful, considering that his numbers are not illustrative or definitive of a solid mass base. Maybe the reason why De Castro continues to enjoy positive support from the masses (as reflected in these surveys, most notably, Pulse Asia) is he hasn’t declared himself a candidate yet and he hasn’t thrown his fate to the Arroyo block. It would be quite different though should De Castro cast his lot with Arroyo's, in which case, possibly, that would whither support away from him. That would really peel off De Castro's perceived strength as a candidate since people will now see him as an administration lackey and that will surely affect his chances.

How about Chiz Escudero? Does he have a personal constituency that, despite party machinery, he's surely win? Like De Castro, it's doubtful. Chiz is a scion of local politics. It's only just once that he ran a national campaign, yet, there are indications though that Chiz is slowly building up a personal mass base, like Estrada's. However, everyone knows that it's still quite dangerous to bet on Chiz since his influence is still untested. In this case, it is safer to bet with Loren Legarda, since she has shown a consistent base of more than 10 million votes with her successive national campaigns.

What am I trying to say here? In terms of statistical probabilities, a third force, like, for example, a Mar Roxas campaign is surer to win than all the others. Compared with Chiz and de Castro, Roxas is a veteran national campaigner, having campaigned for the senate twice. Of course, it's safer still to also bet on Estrada since; his influence has not waned despite being incarcerated for some time.And it's not certain if Estrada could transpose the public trust reposed to him by the masses to his favoured candidate.

FPJ's case is one. Despite his endorsement, FPJ lost. FPJ could have won if there are no other parties that ran, says Estrada, but I know that he knows that that is surely not the reason why his friend lost.What people considered then was the track record of FPJ as an official, which, we all know, was non-existent. Sure, those claps, those ohs and ahs of the masses were not votes; they're simply shallow adulations.

Okey let me recap this so that it's clearer.1. I believe that 2010 will be a multi-party fight. Administration will pit De Castro over an opposition candidate, probably in the person of Estrada and a "third force" would emerge, represented by the Liberal Party led by Mar Roxas. What would prevent the possibility of an Estrada-Escudero tandem? Nothing of course, except that the NPC might throw their chances out of the window should they insists on running independently or casting their lot with LAKAS-KAMPI (unlikely).2. Eventually, Villar's Nacionalista Party will bow out of the race. Villar is encountering a whole lot of trouble after this ethics scandal. Surely, he'll reconsider than fight it out. In that scenario, Villar would opt his chances with Estrada camp, since Jinggoy is still sympathetic with him, a sign that he's still "in good graces" with them. However, Villar would suffer the fate of other wannabes since in the final count; it would just be the Estrada faction of the opposition and the administration that would figure prominently in the leader board.3. Having said that, it is all the more likely that the elitist factions of Estrada and the administration will cancel themselves out to usher or pave the way for the victory of a perceived third force. Voters would definitely choose the safer opposition---a force that is not tainted with corruption and has a record of service.

The question lies is---who will lead this third force? Would it be Escudero? That would be determined from the direction the NPC would take in the coming months. If NPC sways in the direction of the administration, they would be committing suicide and would lose their chance of conquering Malacanang. If NPC sways in the direction of the opposition that would cause a serious split that would pave the way for a third force. Unlike other third forces which ran, and lost under the weight of trapo machineries, this Third Force enjoys both strategic fund advantage and tactical opportunity.

The New Bonifacio

Last night, me and my wife was fortunate to witness the promise of a change maker. Senator Mar Roxas treated his friends, colleagues and supporters to a sumptuous feast. Hundreds of friends and people joined him last night, everybody expected him to make a thunderous condemnation of what's happening and people were not spurned. Roxas spoke like a true Nationalist. He livened up the spirits of those who were there with his wit and we also felt his nationalism. His nationalism touched every heart and his longing for change was shared by everybody who were with him last night.

I saw old government officials, those who served Erap and even those who served Gloria. I saw generals, socialites and even media colleagues. Is Mar Roxas the new hope? Is he the anointed one who will change the ways things are or will he be the political flash in the pan, promising many things yet, eventually delivering nothing? Will he be like Gloria whom the gods of this country pandered and idolized only to be disappointed later on when Gloria allowed herself to be taken prisoner by forces intend on making life miserable for many and comfy to them and their mafia members.

What made my day was when former Senate President Jovy Salonga arrived. I supported Salonga when he ran for the presidency. Even in defeat, I was with him. Salonga was the ideal president who never stepped in the palace glory. As they say, the presidency is a fate reserved for those whom the Gods favor. Will Mar be the one?

Sometimes, I shudder at the thought of Mar becoming president. It was unfortunate for me to have worked with one of his supposed nieces and if Mar is like his niece, then, I fear for the worst for this country.

Having said that, what would make me vote for Mar and what would even spur me to talk about him and share his vision to my friends? These are the requisites:

1. Mar should present his agenda for governance this early so that people will either approve or disapprove of it.

2. Mar should campaign hard against graft and corruption. He should demonstrate his strong will to fight grafters in government and even in the private sector.

3. Mar should, early on, remove those usual suspects in political funding whose interest lies in getting back their ROI's instead of truly helping him due to his nationalism. I saw some of them last night and if Mar sticks with them, he better do so for the right reasons.

4. Mar should marry Korina. Though many family members hate Korina's guts, she'll probably not turn into a First Gentleman. Unlike FG, Korina has the heart.

5. Mar should be very consistent in his desire for change.

By the way, Mar Roxas and four other presidentiables, will be joining more than 20,000 people in today's rally at Ayala Avenue. Show our solidarity by being there. Rain or no rain, we must show Gloria that we want change and we want her puny face out of the palace. Same goes to her rascal Cabinet.