Mrs. Gloria Arroyo's Unfulfilled Vision

Here is an excerpt of my paper entitled, " The Philippine Situationer: 2001-2010". If you want a copy, email me at mangubat.patricio@gmail.com.

In her State of the Nation address in 2001, shortly after the tumultuous EDSA Dos coup d’état, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo laid down her vision for the country. In her speech, Mrs. Arroyo recognized that her role as president is to adequately solve the five (5) basic needs of the Filipino. Let me quote from her 2001 speech:

Napakalinaw, napaka simple ang hiling ng mga anak ng Payatas: Trabaho, Edukasyon, sariling tahanan. Idagdag na rin: Pagkain sa bawat mesa. Ito ang mithiin ng masa. And this, in common sense and plain talk, is the core of my vision. A vision for the future must be rooted in the past. A revolution gave birth to the first Republic in Asia.

Years later, Mrs. Arroyo gave flesh to her vision by announcing the birth of a Strong Republic in 2002, which she describes as a government fighting the evils of underdevelopment. Yet, after three more years, in 2005, Mrs. Arroyo later admitted that change cannot happen under what she termed as a “political-ly degenerated” system. She said, and I quote:

“...political system has degenerated; people want a government that works.... the system needs fundamental change—the sooner, the better time to take the power from the center to the countrysides.”

What led Mrs. Arroyo to conclude that it is the system that hinders growth rather than promote it?

Quality of life has greatly decreased in the Philippines over the past ten years. The risk of living in the Philippines has increased due to rampant violence and the inability of the present administration to effectively implement the laws. At the start, the administration envisioned a “Strong Republic”, predicated on effecting a firm hold or rein in the functions of governance.

This report assesses the Philippines in terms of three (3) variables: global competitiveness, governance and security.

Investors see the Philippines as a “low cost, but higher risk” country. It means it is cheaper to do business in the Philippines compared with other Asian countries but the risk is definitely higher than others. Meta Group Incorporated defined that risk as political. The Philippines, says MetaGroup, is second largest IT outsourcing hub, but political instability is affecting competitiveness. Since 2003, the global competitiveness of the Philippines has seen good and better days due to rampant graft and corruption, worsening peace and order situation and political instability.

The World Economic Forum’s “The Global Competitiveness Report, 2008-2009” ranked the Philippines in 74th place, lower than its neighbour Indonesia (58th) and Vietnam (73rd). Compared to Malaysia (24th place) and Singapore (8th), our country lags behind in terms of competitiveness.

Global competitiveness is affected by poor governance. In the World Bank’s Governance Index, the Philippines performed poorly in governance, registering a negative 0.59% since 1998 to 2008, well below Indonesia’s (-0.14%). There is a high incidence of political violence (negative 1.41%, down to about negative 1.25% since 1998) compared with other countries in the region.

Governance has been largely affected by perceptions of rampant graft and corruption and crony practices. A survey of 1,400 business leaders carried out by Economic Risk Consultancy Ltd, a Hong Kong based company, found that the Philippines was considered the most corrupt of the 13 Asian economies, followed by Thailand, China, and Indonesia. The Philippines was separately ranked number 131 out of 179 countries by corruption watchdog Transparency International in its 2007 report, placing it on a par with Libya and Burundi.

Global Integrity Report (2008) has this to say about the Philippines:

Despite some impressive world-class anti-corruption safeguards, such as formal "cooling-off" employment periods for senior officials leaving government, the Philippines remains challenged by the lack of a formal access to information regime and an election system that breeds cronyism and corruption in the political process. Improvements in the transparency surrounding government procurement remain promising, and civil society groups continue to play an important role in the debate around governance reforms. Restrictions on financial donations to candidates and parties from those with business before the government are an interesting and rare regulation internationally.

In terms of peace and order, the Global Peace Index places the Philippines in 114th place with a score of 2.357 , suggesting a higher incidence of political and non-political violence outbreaks in the Philippines compared with its neighbours in Asia.

According to the World Economic Forum Executive Opinion survey, the top five issues which the Philippines needs to address are the following: corruption, inefficient bureaucracy, inadequate infrastructure, crime and theft and policy instability. Furthermore, the Philippines needs to address irregular payments in public contracts, prevalence of illegal political donations and the rising business costs of terrorism.

Oil prices and RP recession

Ok. I checked today and the world's crude oil prices being traded went down by about 4 pesos. Its trading in London by US$67.32 (US$1:48) or about 3,231.36 php per barrel.

Now, a barrel of crude oil contains 159 liters of oil. So, crude oil should have been passed to us only 20.30 php per liter. That is, if these oil companies get their crude in London.

If these oil companies claim that they get their crude from Singapore, the news said that even prices there fell to US$67 per barrel. That's even lower than our previous calculation.

Of course, oil companies may have to factor in freight costs and profits.

The average retail price of a gallon of gasoline in seven industrialized countries cost US$ 4-5 dollars (US$1:48). That's about 240 pesos per gallon. Now, since there is about 3.78 liters per gallon, gasoline should probably fetch here at around 63.49 pesos per liter, still lower than ours here.

But, that's not the point.

These oil companies are raking profit after profit says Oil Price Watch Chairman Roberto Concepcion Jr. When it was time to lower prices, oil companies did so ginger-ly. Now, why are companies raising their retail oil prices now?

According to a hedge fund analyst, oil companies are anticipating the recession. The World Bank says the recession would happen in the third quarter of this year due to weak economic activity. Should the economy weaken as predicted, this will surely impact on commodity prices, including oil.

Oil companies should explain this to the public in a more efficient way. I think the problem lies on the ineffective way these companies handle their external communications. People would understand if they just act with transparency.

Elections as tried and tested failures for change

Barely a year ago, I wrote about the first EDSA revolt, an analytical entry about the actions of people who participated in the celebrations of EDSA Uno. Last year's celebration was tersely dramatic, as the defenders of Gloria, led by the former PNP chief Avelino Razon Jr. went into the streets in full regalia, along with his fellow mistahs and officers, as a show of dogged loyalty to the illegitimate Commander-in-Chief. What happened after that 24 February 2008 entry was a string of historic activities, foremost the ZTE revelations, the impeachment and the mammoth Ayala rallies. Afterwards, no significant events happened. Gloria survived yet again to live for another year.

Now, the very same festering problems are upon us, this time made more glaring with all these allegations of corruption, collusion, bribery and a monumental billion peso investment scam. What's different is the World Bank, a reputable international body, is now at centerstage with its damning report about high-level bribery and collusion. However, unlike last year's, no big group has come out in revolutionary fashion to show at least some semblance of resistance or indignation. Probably because most, if not all, have given up. Most attention centers on the upcoming 2010 elections, which, for all intents and purposes, is what most people hope to have to efface the devilish legacy of the Arroyo years.

Yet, there is that real reason why revolts are a dime a dozen in this corner of the world. It is not that people have acquiesce their rights nor have voluntarily silence their voices. It is the mistaken belief that change can only happen in democratic fashion, since most Filipinos subscribe to the democratic ideal. It is this misinterpretation of democracy that hinders most Filipinos to support initiatives for violent change. The mere mention of violence, according to most Filipinos, is what shuns most about this model for change.

Violence is not the way to do it, I hear Ambassador De Villa telling people in a forum. We need to do the old fashion way--elect those who we think would greatly contribute towards change and kick out those who don't.

Yet, the problem with the De Villa paradigm is this has been a tried and tested failure in our history. The more we cling our hopes to democratically elect those who we perceive as good, the more things remain the same. Our system is still personality-oriented. Despite these glaring cases which point to the system as the root cause of our maladies, most think that the best way to do this change is still thru the ballot.

No one disputes this, but in a dysfunctional system such as ours, where the rule of men dominates the law instead of the other way around, it is not the changing of the Guardians that we need. We first correct and transplant this rotten and decrepit system before we can even fathom the idea of staging democratic elections.

Men, as a general rule, subscribes to the prevailing order. If the prevailing order is not ordered but rather a system open to interpretations, problems are sure to start and fester. Our present disposition requires a socio-surgical operation. There is that need to create or "re-engineer" our system prior to the 2010 elections. Because if we allow this elections to happen when a unresponsive system persists, there is that big possibility that, post-2010 elections, we will still get the same disappointing results from our elected leaders and demoralization will still be there and possibly, worsen. To arrest our continued slide towards mediocracy and underdevelopment, we need to stand up and create a government that shall review our current processes and laws and prepare the nation come 2010. We will never achieve this under the present administration because those who we want changed will still use our resources to perpetuate themselves further in power.

I write this hoping to illuminate the minds of those who has resources to support a movement for change. However, ruminating, this entry is just a futile exercise of space and time. No one will ever dare challenge the present regime simply because most of the top leaders of this so-called and highly amorphous organism called "civil society" is peopled with the same petty bourgeoisie class we all hate. They have the same sentiments as those who occupy the highest echelons of Gloria's Gang of Misfits because they belong to the same despicable class. They think the same. They walk the same talk.

Time to re-assess the real forces for change and if competent to counter the prevailing order, strike the Bastille with all might and leave to God the result. If all these well-meaning fathers and mothers come together and form a lethal force, they could probably provide the biggest force in Philippine history ever formed just for change.

Curse the Coverup Most Foul

(crossposted over at http://www.filipinovoices.com/

The Senate hearing on the World Bank report chaired by no less than pseudo graft buster Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago was the biggest joke ever staged by the First Golfer gang. The scene reminds one of the infamous Mafia Gang trials in the US where the stellar cast involves no less than the big bosses of the underworld. Except, in our Filipinized version, the ones who went on trial were those who accused and exposed the anomaly in the first place, not those who committed this monumental thievery. It was staged managed, alright, by a group of intellectually dishonest misfits, who tried, and succeeded in using their knowledge of the law, even medicine, just to protect the biggest louse in Philippine history. From that heart surgeon to those petty government functionaries, the hearing was a big stage play with all those thieves in barongs professing innocence and trying hard to make us understand that getting those 10 percent commissions from the public purse is nothing sort of benevolent donation.

That hearing saved the play acting head of the biggest criminal syndicate from unnecessary exposure. He mocks the Filipino People with his obvious aversion to responsibility. For him, the Filipino People do not deserve an answer. We don’t even deserve a minute of his time, nor do we deserve to see him longer than 30 minutes in a live television coverage. For him, his presence is only for those who tee off with him at Wack-Wack and those who cut steak dinners with him in Tomas Morato.

The hearing was an obvious parody, a direct dig at the very institutions of this democracy and an obvious mockery of Filipino values and sensitivities. The institutions that our forebears have tried very hard to build are crumbling. People, like these Celso delos Angeles Jr, this DOJ prosecutor John Resado and the First Golfer are not just criminal geniuses who use their influence to make money . They are the very same ones who will eventually cause the downfall of this government.

They are the true destabilizers who cause us shame. They are the true thieves who deserve nothing less than eternal damnation and eventual death. They are the real curses given by God to this generation who continues to play dumb, act blind and deaf to the most foul crime ever made against the Filipino People.

No one in this generation would be man enough to challenge the supremacy of the First Golfer Gang. No one has the gall and the political will to challenge this evil gang. No one. This gang controls every lever of Filipino government and manages every string of every puppet in this so-called civilized country.

Who is man enough to challenge this louse who dons expensive clothes and even wears the cursed country in his shirt? Who is man enough to curse him for his indiscretions, his seemingly gangsterist rule over 82 million free souls? Who has the stamina to run against him, a man who’s in the pink of health when wheeling and dealing but feels sick when caught red-handed? As it stands, there is no one among us willing to take the sword out of Lady Justice’s sheath and thrust it into the very heart of the most foul criminal.

No one is cursing. No one is talking. For this, we deserve the darkness.

A commitment towards National Survival

The World Bank just cancelled a US$ 230 million loan to our government due to corruption. More than half of the population hate their leader and want her to resign immediately, again, because of corruption. And what is the response of the government? Surveys are sham affairs, the people's voice is not important and government will form a group that would scrutinize government deals.

For Mrs. Arroyo, the message to the people is clear--I am immune to your voice. I will do what I think is right and will not heed your clamor for me to resign. What callousness.

I remember that at the onset of this government, Mrs. Arroyo tapped a Hongkong anti-graft consultancy group to look at the system to combat graft and corruption. Seven years had past and corruption seems to have evolved more quickly and transformed to a more lethal form. Institutions of government have slowly disintegrated due to corruption. As I wrote here, the state has already contracted and nearing implosion because the power center has weakened considerably. This weakness has lead to an increase in transactional patronage politics that opens the power center to more corruption.

The lost of trust, the weakness of the state leadership and its vulnerability to threats are directly affecting the very survival of this country. The viability of the Philippines as an investment site is eroding and it might affect the economic survival of the Philippines in the coming years.

Congress, especially the Speaker should realize this. The onus of saving this country from total ruin depends on Congress now. If, as expected, they kill the supplemental impeachment complaint today or in the coming days, it should be a signal to the idealistic soldiers and civil society groups to move and do what is necessary to save our country from this callous calamity.