No-El and August

Why do I always hear rumours of "No-El" and people whisper that something "big" will happen this August? What's with August anyway?

Despite this Resolution that passed thru the rigorous House two days ago, I don't believe that elections will not push thru as planned. The administration already agreed on a merger with Lakas CMD and it would be foolish not to go ahead with the elections. These politicians know that tampering with the elections would lead to widespread violence. People are waiting for the transition. Everyone's itching to know what future lies in a post-Gloria era. Yet, to tempt fate and pursue a term extension is foolhardy at best.

Again, I don't know what will happen come August. Congress has until June 3, that's next week, to tempt fate by pushing thru with that Resolution. They also have until that time to extend CARP. Farmers are clashing with police in a daily fashion lately. And House members, especially Cong. Edcel Lagman already gave assurances that the House will extend CARP. Yet, these legislators just want farmers to wait for their turn.

Tomorrow, 28 May 2009, two significant events will happen. LAKAS-KAMPI CMD will have a dinner meeting and wagging tongues say, Noli de Castro will grace the event, alongside with, DILG secretary Ronnie Puno. Puno already threw his hat unto the vice-presidential ring and the architect of the Sulu hotel operations that catapulted Ramos to power is very much assured of winning. Puno will pit himself against Senator Kiko Pangilinan and possibly, Jinggoy Estrada from the Opposition. If Puno wins against Kiko or Jinggoy, there's something wrong with the system.

Administration allies, I heard, is confident of a win, given that COMELEC will soon award the computerization project to the rag-tag rich team of Cezar Quiambao and Ernest Villareal. These two graft geniuses are known associates of First Gentleman Mike Arroyo and surely, they'll go whatever the Arroyo family wants.

Going back to my original query, I just don't know what's on August that people whisper something sinister about it. All I know about August is that's the month when Ninoy got shot and the month when Marcos decided to go ahead with September 12---a date that went down in history as the most infamous day that blackened Philippine history.

Will this administration do ala-Marcos and decide to tempt fate, throw every caution in the wind and satisfy its whim? Possibly. This administration has survived so many attempts that it has adjusted everytime. It became stronger. It became bolder. And what's so unique about all of these things---it became wiser.

After June 3, it's possible that some sipsip Congressmen will tempt fate and go on with charter change. They cannot declare an extension since it's prohibited by the 1987 Constitution but the president can. Or, possibly there will be something serious that affects security that would prod Mrs. Arroyo to declare martial rule?

But, all these are far-fetched and simply too ridiculous even to think. No-El? Cha-cha? Crap!

Arroyo to declare martial rule either April or June?

Martial law by May? Though Global Source, a US-based think tank failed to identify when will the Arroyo administration would probably launch such a ridiculous measure to perpetuate itself to an overtime of power, sources of NPR says the possibility of Martial rule remains an option to the Arroyo cabal.

That window of opportunity for such a foolish and idiotic drive presents itself in the period of time between Congress entering into an adjournment of session from March 7 to April 12 or between June 6 to July 26 of this year.

An extraordinary event like this should only happen while Congress is in adjournment. Why? Because a declaration during a session is entirely disruptive, even chaotic.

The most likely time for Arroyo would be this period of adjournment, between March to April. Why? It allows more time for her allies to re-group themselves, shore up more resources and possibly increase support for the measure so that, come re-opening of the session, they may be able to push for an extension of the martial rule declaration only until July 26, 2009. By which time they may have already passed certain measures which will benefit them come 2010.

However, absent any stirrings from the public and possible genuine opposition from anti-Arroyo groups, the Arroyo Cabal may have to re-think their strategies and possibly go for the June 12 deadline they already set for themselves.

At this point in time, there is really nothing big an event that would justify an imposition of martial rule, except, if the following events/scenarios happen:

1. A worsening of the hostage crisis in Jolo, Sulu and the heightening of low intensity conflicts in MILF areas.

2. An increase in crime incidence in the Metropolitan areas.

3. An intensification of anti-Communist campaigns in both the red and the white areas.

4. Heightening of high-profile crime cases involving either assassinations of big-time personalities and/or government/police officials.

5. Possible "ambush-me" scenarios that would involve either the president and/or one or some of her officials.


A June declaration of martial rule is beneficial since it allows them a longer period of time of implementation and also, possibly, create a more beneficial atmosphere of likely support from allies.

A disruption of the political configurations via a martial rule measure would likely debilitate the opposition and cause support to rise for the administration.

Disturbing signs for 2008: GMA Administration--Hard headed or just plain stupid?

ZTE to be re-bidded in 2008

Government has just announced that they will be re-bidding the NBN project (dubbed ZTE deal) to local telcos in 2008. I bet my bottom Sing dollars that the one who will get it will still use ZTE technology. What the public does'nt know is that the technology being used by most local telcos came from ZTE. ZTE has been in operation in the Philippines since 2000. It is the major supplier of telecommunications equipment to most local telcos.

What this government will do is still award the contract to a local telco with strong tieup with ZTE. And the end result will still be harmful to the pockets of the Filipino People.

PR Contract worth US$ 50 Million

Senator Mar Roxas has just exposed another anomaly this administration entered into---a US$ 50 million worth of PR contract. That's roughly P 2 billion guys. A US-based lobby group has been tapped to improve the image and reputation of this government before the eyes of the Americans. And for what? To justify the illegal occupation of Malacanan by the conjugal republican monarchy? Some years ago, Filipinos militated against the Venable deal which could have cost the People 50 million pesos. Now, its at it again, spending billions for image reputation management.

Exports to grow only 6 percent

While government continually harp on the economic gains so to speak of the government, they are neglecting an important sector which is the export sector. Analysts say that the export industry will only grow by 6percent which is truly depressing considering the important role it plays in every country's national development. The BSP said that by 2008 it will relax forex controls to ease the burden of volatile forex rates to the people. That's good news for exporters whom I believe is having their worst year to date. However, government should take care of this very important sector since export industries are the key to sustained economic growth, not just sporadic growth which we are experiencing today.

40 now, 45 next year

Forex experts are predicting that the peso will slide to its comfortable level of 45 by next year. So, for those speculators out there or for some who want to earn some quick buck from their dollars, its better to buy dollars now then wait for next year to convert it. You'll earn at least 5 pesos more for every peso you spent buying those green bucks.

Filipinos still optimistic, says surveys

For all of these things, Filipinos are still optimistic that Christmas will be good for them. I don't know about that. For all I know, prices of commodities have increased substantially since last week. People are feeling this. And I don't think that government is capable enough of explaining why people are not buying enough stuff for their noche buena feasts. A year ago, 2,000 pesos is a lot. Now, it's a pittance. I really don't know what to be thankful for except perhaps that we are still alive despite the horrendous performance of this government. And I don't want to thank Arroyo for that. I am thanking God for that. Don't tell me that I owe every shred of my existence to Arroyo. Doing so would be blasphemy. And a lie.

The Right Solution

The Philippines has placed tenth in the Global Bribery survey. Transparency International said in its report that the poor are the most hit in the worsening graft crisis ever to hit the country. The World Bank meanwhile said that poverty incidence has increased in the Philippines despite what the Arroyo administration says as the best economic performance ever. What do all these mean?

It means that these economic gains generated by a revitalized economy are not spilling over the masses but are being dissipated by corrupt groups in government. Those who control the levers of power are the ones benefiting from this inequality. Wealth continues to be concentrated in the hands of a few lucky ones close to the center of power. The disparity, says the World Bank, between the rich and the poor has increased because the system does not have the right spillover mechanism to enable the poor to at least get a slice of the economic gains.

This explains why the Philippines rank a close second to India in terms of the number of pessimistic people. Despite having a “sunshine” economy, most Pinoys are not happy. If you study the surveys, many are desperate and feel depressed. Many feel that they have nowhere to turn to. Since 1986, the people have searched in vain for the right solution. Always, the people fail to find one.

Those who don’t suffer the brunt of high prices or are insulated from the ravages of extreme poverty, they are the ones who discourage the people to revolt. For these few, the solution is still Gandhian. When you’re being killed slowly, will you still say “peace brother”? And by entertaining these thoughts, can you then be classified as a “coup plotter”, “ a war freak” or a “peace wrecker”?

Eventually, I believe, people will look at the palace and blame it for their current poverty. In dire times, people need to point on something or look at one direction to place the blame at. I shudder at the thought of seeing one day when poor people kill the rich because of their wealth. It has happened before in other countries.

Saving this country from chaos necessitates a collective effort. It may not be a coup. It definitely cannot be a revolt. It should be a pronunciamento. This could be the solution everybody is lusting for.

Why the absence of the masa in the Pen?

It is not true that the masa was'nt there when it happened. I was there. Hundreds were there. In fact, when the tanks came rolling in, a handful of people remarked that the marines would support Trillianes. A taxi driver whom I spoke with said that at least six bus-loads of people were supposed to join Trillianes but were blocked by the police along the way. Thousands more wanted to join Trillianes but were'nt able to go there. It was not because they don't want to. The Pen incident was spontaneous. A few knew about it. Had it continued until the morrow, it could have generated enough steam to actually entice, encourage hundreds or thousands of people to come join the party at the Pen.

So, I don't agree with most observations that the reason why a coup would fail here is the absence of the masa. That the people, allegedly, are already tired of all these EDSAs. I seriously doubt this observation. This is just part of psywar to discourage groups to launch something against Arroyo.

However, whether Trillianes is an Arroyo spy or not, one fact remained--the Pen incident served its purpose. The incident merited three (3) critical information to would-be plotters in the future:

1. GMA's defenses are illusionary. It is not as strong as before. Whatever people say that the response was sufficient, even "overacting", it is obvious that the government's forces are not that strong nor as many. In case of a shooting war, GMA's forces are sure to be defeated. I know other analysts will see it differently, but I stand with what I write here--in the next outing, GMA's forces will surely lose, even die by the hundreds.

2. GMA's survival in a situation like this is assured if they can neutralize any group within 18 hours. If less than 18 hours, they are sure to lose and this administration is sure to fall. The first 48 hours is the most critical moment. A more determined military group sans any public support can do the job of forcing the ouster of Arroyo. There must, however, be a series of actions directed not at one singular place, but of explosions of actions left and right in different places all at the same time.

3. Foreign governments will support the one who wins after the armed struggle. In the next outing, open fighting is expected. Whoever emerges the winners in this open fighting will definitely be recognized as the legitimate government.

I know many would disagree with what I write here, but given my high batting average (I predicted a coup right? ) in previous blogs, believe me, the one at the Pen is just a sampler, err, just a "testing", so to speak, for a bigger event in the next few weeks. Surely, it would not be long before freedom is attained.

The bombing of Congress

Two were killed, including a Congressman while nine were injured when a powerful car bomb exploded at the South wing entrance of the Congress of the Philippines. Accounts say that the bomb took off a few minutes after the Speaker left the House of Representatives. Mrs. Arroyo through her spokesperson Ignacio Bunye ordered the PNP to conduct the investigation. The Speaker immediately condemned the "dastardly" act and ordered the clearing of the entire area. The Speaker blamed extremists, terrorists or anarchists for the bombing. A sweep of the entire Congressional area is being done to check on "other" bombs which police and the Speaker suspect to have been left in the area.

The one who died was the driver of the Toyota Hi-Ace parked at the entrance of the South Wing. The bomb exploded a few minutes after the end of the session. PNP Chief Avelino Razon said over at ANC that the legislators injured owned the vehicles parked near the car carrying the bomb.

The question that everybody is asking--who did it?

Unmistakeably, this is a political act. First, it occurred in Congress where a day after, the justice committee ordered the junking of the Tamano impeachment complaint which was filed before the justice committee to buttress the weak Pulido complaint. Cong. Mat Defensor, the lapdop of Mrs. Arroyo, advised the opposition to just file it in the Supreme Court. Obviously, those who are thinking of a constitutional solution are fast losing hope.

Second, the bomb exploded at the main egress of Congressmen. Meaning, the act was meant to kill, not just to make a statement. If it was just meant to stun or shock or frighten legislators, it could have exploded in the periphery. Accounts on ANC said that the bomb was so powerful, it made a crater. Congresswoman Darlene Antonino described the bombing as so powerful, that they felt the shock waves a few meters away from the blast site.

Statement

The bombing incident wanted to tell the people that, I believe:

1. Those who did this are very serious in whatever struggle they are currently undertaking.
2. They can do it anywhere. Security is traditionally very tight in Congress. The group who masterminded this blast just wanted to show that they can puncture a very tight security such as Congress. Meaning, they can even bomb Malacanan if they wanted to.
3. They have the will to kill their perceived enemies. Obviously, their enemies are not personal enemies. These are ideological enemies.

A bomb meant for the Speaker?

Now, I am not in the habit of impuning a crime to anybody but I remember one interview made by Joey de Venecia during the height of the ZTE controversy. Joey said that he and his father's lives were in danger. He said that certain generals threatened them. The Speaker validated this. Was the bomb meant for the speaker? If it was, then, there must be a reason beyond ZTE to justify this.

A bomb meant for Teves?

Cong. Henry Teves has no known political enemies. However, the Teves clan is very close to the president. His brother was involved in the controversial ZTE deal when former COMELEC chair Ben Abalos called him up to "influence" him in giving a favorable comment on the deal. Was the bomb meant for him?

A bomb meant for Wahab Akbar?

I am sure police and even the palace would use this angle to diffuse the consequences of this incident. Remember Wahab Akbar was the one who allegedly protected the ASG terrorists in Basilan and caused the deaths of the Marines last July. Was the bomb meant for him and those killed and injured were just collateral damages? This is plausible. Akbar has incurred many enemies from his former rebel friends and from the Marines. An interview with Sandra Cam, a friend of the deceased congressman, said that the bomb exploded when Akbar was onboarding his vehicle. However, Cam belied reports that the bomb exploded inside the car of Wahab.

I am just writing this when I heard a news report that Wahab just died due to serious head injuries and fractures. The congressman died while being treated at the Far Eastern University hospital in Fairview Quezon City. Reports are saying that Wahab Akbar received many death threats due to his increasing power in Basilan. He has many blood debts.

What's clear

What is clear is that this incident is politically-motivated and probably masterminded by a determined group of soldiers. However, it is not clear if this group belonged to security forces of the president or rebels. It could be that the bombing was part of another Oplan similar to Oplan Greenbase, perpetuated by state security forces to create instability.

Another clear statement from this incident is this--whatever the goal of the group who did this, it would not be long before this turns into a full-blown one. I mean, it would only be a few days or even weeks, not months. If this group is really determined to do what they conditioned themselves to do, the resolution, surely, will not take months. Therefore, I presume that the end is near for those who betrayed the Filipino People.