Senator Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. is probably praying very hard right now. Instead of just running for another term as Senator, Bongbong decided to throw his hat onto the vice presidential derby. Whoever advised him to do it probably thought that the political atmosphere is ripe for another Marcos in Malacanang. Or, he was advised to end his maturing political career in a premature way.
A loss come 2016 would end the young Marcos' ambition to get the prized crown once more. Everyone knows how hard it is to campaign for the presidency without a platform. Bongbong would have to spend so much more if he wants the presidency.
What is another six years of waiting? By that time, Bongbong would be 64 years old and the political situation more favorable for him than any other candidate. By 2022, there is still no visible political heavyweight strong enough to counter Bongbong's cruise to the presidency. Who would dare a Marcos run? Escudero? No chance. Pangilinan? Are you kidding? A son of former president Estrada? Who? JV or Jinggoy? They don't have the charisma of their father. Poe? By that time, yes, she would have qualified yet probably weaker politically.
Is it wiser for Bongbong to test the waters now? In a way, yes. It is a gamble worth trying because of what had transpired in the political scene.
There is a basis for such an advice. One, the Ilokano vote. Two, the pull coming from the Visayan vote. Lastly, the possible votes coming from Mindanao, of which some communities are peopled with Ilokano families.
Yes, Bongbong registers a popularity of a consistent 7%, and a ranking which is always either fifth or sixth. In a situation such as what we have now where there is no clear winner or someone highly popular enough to pull voters away from other candidates, there is still a chance that 7% would turn double-digit anytime. And when that happens, that will give Bongbong a stronger than even chance of winning the vice presidential slot.
Remember that ratings only serve to attract financiers. What matters most is high conversion rates. In all likelihood, an Ilokano candidate with very strong Visayan links could easily pull off a surprise because voters elect those whom they can identify themselves with.
By this announcement, this will crystallize efforts at unifying the Ilokano vote and the Visayan votes once more behind one candidate. This is the same strategy employed by his father when he ran for the Senate and eventually, for the presidency.
Minority Vice President
The current field is peopled with at least six VP candidates: Trillianes, Cayetano, (possibly Honasan?), Robredo, Marcos and Escudero. Look at these names--except Marcos, all the rest do not have a visible constituency. With Robredo's entry, the Bicol vote would surely be fragmented and segmented.
Cayetano is banking on a Duterte support and if this does not happen, expect Cayetano to lose to Bongbong. Trilianes is banking on the wide support base of the Magdalo. What he does not realize is his network is fragmented along regional lines as well, and Magdalos based in Region 1 would think twice before they support him rather than Bongbong. Likewise, the Magdalo groups behave as dependent organizations instead of independent political forces in their respective locales.
Robredo is banking on the vaulted LP machinery yet this electoral behemoth is being threatened by desertions left and right, most going to the Poe-Escudero tandem, believing that this aggrupation is the winning side. Without a big party machinery, who among these political groups is strong enough to counter Bongbong's?
As I said in my previous post, the entire game is hinged on sustainability. Is the Poe-Escudero campaign sustainable? No. If Poe is disqualified, then, this partnership would surely break at the seams. Popularity is not enough to deliver votes. You may be preferred by voters but if you don't have the organisation to protect those votes, then, it is next to impossible to win.
I change my previous analysis---Bongbong Marcos is a sure winner in the vice presidential derby for five (5) reasons: one, he has the Ilokano and the Visayan voters; two, he has the machinery; three, the field does not have a deep bench. There is no contender strong enough to stand before him tit-for-tat. Fourth, the young voters do not have or show a deep antipathy or animosity for the young Marcos and fifth, the Marcos' family's political enemies are fading into oblivion, one by one.
It seems that the universe is conspiring to give Bongbong the win.
Showing posts with label bongbong marcos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bongbong marcos. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Bongbong Marcos to risk all?
Everyone agrees that Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr deserves a higher post. For one, he is intelligent. His heart seems to be at the right place, and Bongbong is someone who knows what he is doing and knows how to get what he wants.
Among those who aspire for the top post, Bongbong enjoys a distinct advantage--he is familiar with government and its processes. Bongbong carries with him a surname which is synonymous with greatness. The only real problem is the name also carries with it a stigma.
What stigma? A political stigma that is.
It is not the actions of his father during Martial law that made people hate or even loathe the Marcos political brand name, no. It was the excesses that even Bongbong took part of that most people remember. Most people do not blame Bongbong's father, Ferdinand senior for declaring Martial law. Most people accepted and even admitted that it was a necessary means towards a greater end--a more ordered society.
What turned the people's admiration into hatred was when Marcos and his family, and that included Bongbong were seen living the high life while the rest of the country was suffering the effects of a dire economic recession.
Many died during Martial law, but not a whimper was heard from the majority of the people because that was a silent acceptance of the declared system.
The people only resorted to violent acts when they saw how the Marcosses hobnobbed with royalty while most of the people suffered and reeled from poverty.
It was the people who gave Marcos the opportunity of leading this country towards an authentic revolution. Yet, Marcos decided to veer away from the very reason why he declared Martial law, and that was correct the monumental flaws of the system, and obliterate the greedy elites that hampered the progress of this country from third world to first world status during the sixties.
Marcos, back then, was a symbol of both resistance and renaissance. Resistance because he came from the professional classes and renaissance because the people think that he has the intellect and the might, the power to effect the change, the way every Filipino wanted it.
Yet, Marcos bungled that historic opportunity. Marcos was a symbol for change yet he himself became a target of resistance later in life because he conveniently forgot the very thing that endeared him with the masses in the first place--the masses saw in him, a champion, that was admired because of his wit, his principles and his sense of History.
Now, Bongbong thinks that it is his time to get hold of History and snatch it away from all the other pretenders for the throne. What Bongbong forgets and he must be made to remember it, is that he still represents a political legacy that is as spotty as it is loathsome.
He carries none of the promises that the masses saw in his father during his father's prime. Marcos senior symbolized a cause. Marcos junior does not. What cause does Bongbong represent? The "Tayo-Tayo" ideology espoused by his TV ADVERTISEMENT and which shows him doing a selfie with young people?
A classic empty promise of windmills? The shallow hope that a smile gives to its beneficiary?
Bongbong is risking all if he decides to really accept this illusion being peddled by many of him gunning for the vice presidency even though there is really no pillar by which his belief of a general sentiment about the Marcos regime stands from.
I think this is not the ripe time for Bongbong to jump into the fire. For one, Bongbong must prove to all and sundry that he runs for the right reasons and not because his mother expects him to or his financiers want him to get the highest post.
Among those who aspire for the top post, Bongbong enjoys a distinct advantage--he is familiar with government and its processes. Bongbong carries with him a surname which is synonymous with greatness. The only real problem is the name also carries with it a stigma.
What stigma? A political stigma that is.
It is not the actions of his father during Martial law that made people hate or even loathe the Marcos political brand name, no. It was the excesses that even Bongbong took part of that most people remember. Most people do not blame Bongbong's father, Ferdinand senior for declaring Martial law. Most people accepted and even admitted that it was a necessary means towards a greater end--a more ordered society.
What turned the people's admiration into hatred was when Marcos and his family, and that included Bongbong were seen living the high life while the rest of the country was suffering the effects of a dire economic recession.
Many died during Martial law, but not a whimper was heard from the majority of the people because that was a silent acceptance of the declared system.
The people only resorted to violent acts when they saw how the Marcosses hobnobbed with royalty while most of the people suffered and reeled from poverty.
It was the people who gave Marcos the opportunity of leading this country towards an authentic revolution. Yet, Marcos decided to veer away from the very reason why he declared Martial law, and that was correct the monumental flaws of the system, and obliterate the greedy elites that hampered the progress of this country from third world to first world status during the sixties.
Marcos, back then, was a symbol of both resistance and renaissance. Resistance because he came from the professional classes and renaissance because the people think that he has the intellect and the might, the power to effect the change, the way every Filipino wanted it.
Yet, Marcos bungled that historic opportunity. Marcos was a symbol for change yet he himself became a target of resistance later in life because he conveniently forgot the very thing that endeared him with the masses in the first place--the masses saw in him, a champion, that was admired because of his wit, his principles and his sense of History.
Now, Bongbong thinks that it is his time to get hold of History and snatch it away from all the other pretenders for the throne. What Bongbong forgets and he must be made to remember it, is that he still represents a political legacy that is as spotty as it is loathsome.
He carries none of the promises that the masses saw in his father during his father's prime. Marcos senior symbolized a cause. Marcos junior does not. What cause does Bongbong represent? The "Tayo-Tayo" ideology espoused by his TV ADVERTISEMENT and which shows him doing a selfie with young people?
A classic empty promise of windmills? The shallow hope that a smile gives to its beneficiary?
Bongbong is risking all if he decides to really accept this illusion being peddled by many of him gunning for the vice presidency even though there is really no pillar by which his belief of a general sentiment about the Marcos regime stands from.
I think this is not the ripe time for Bongbong to jump into the fire. For one, Bongbong must prove to all and sundry that he runs for the right reasons and not because his mother expects him to or his financiers want him to get the highest post.
Saturday, July 11, 2015
Will a Roxas-Poe tandem be enough to defeat a Jejomar Binay?
It seems that, based on newspaper reports, President Aquino himself is brokering a Mar Roxas-Grace Poe tandem. Sources say a Grace Poe-Chiz Escudero tandem is a 100% certainty already. Lately, things are reportedly changing, as Aquino himself is trying his darn best to isolate Escudero and give a Roxas-Poe a chance.
Closest associates with Chiz say the Senator will think twice campaigning against Poe. Poe is in a bind. If she runs as vice president, chances are good, because she fares well at the surveys. That will leave a biblical fight between Roxas and Binay, which, if surveys are again to be believed, would result to a Binay presidency.
Binay's numbers may be slowly going South, but that is exactly what the LP camp wants us to believe. Look closely at these surveys and the opposite is the actual result. Binay is not losing his base. Grace Poe's numbers are improving because she is getting those additional points from somewhere, possibly from Bongbong Marcos' or from other names put there by the survey firm. Binay is holding on.
If talks falter, that assures a Poe-Escudero tandem, which, to be blunt, benefits Escudero more than Poe. Poe would have to fight it out with the vaulted LP machinery and the UNA. Without a very solid support base, Poe stands to lose.
Escudero, meanwhile, will be the runaway winner in the vice-presidential race if Bongbong Marcos will not run. If the NP fields a Cayetano-Marcos campaign, Cayetano will surely lose yet Marcos will definitely win.
Meanwhile, Senator Antonio Trillianes is definitely sure of running for the vice presidency. He's expected to give his opponents a run for their money since his political machinery is stable and expansive.
There is a belief that a two-way fight might result to a dismal defeat of Binay. I don't believe that yarn. Ask around and you'll know what the masses think. In a two-way fight between Roxas and Binay, people will choose Binay anytime. There is this unexplainable disdain against Roxas by most people.
In a two-way fight between Poe and Binay, Poe is expected to put out a good fight but eventually Binay will emerge the winner. If Poe gets Roxas' constituency and some of former president Joseph Estrada's, that is more than enough to defeat Binay.
However, in a three-way fight, with Binay keeping his 25-30% mass base, Poe could probably pull out a stunner since she will eat Roxas' constituency up and may possibly get the numbers enough to pull Binay down to a very slim margin.
Possible configurations this 2016:
1. If talks between the LP camp and the Poe-Escudero camp fails, Mar Roxas may have to run all by himself, which, to be frank, will be perceived as a weak campaign leading to his second defeat at the polls.
2. Binay's camp is leaning towards Berberabe as a potential running mate yet there is a surprise man in the equation which is being convinced to run opposite Binay. I am not at liberty revealing this man but if he agrees, his tandem with Binay will surely be one of the most talked about tandems of this election.
3. The NP is still in a quandary: field their own or coalesce and ensure the victories of their senatorial candidates. There are reports that a Cayetano-Marcos is being prepped. We all know what would happen to Cayetano but at least that gives him a proper "training" for the 2022 elections, yes?
4. The Poe-Escudero tandem is 100% certain. If this happens, expect a Binay-Escudero administration.
5. A Binay-Marcos administration is only possible if Poe runs as a presidential candidate. If Poe runs for the vice presidency, she wins and a Binay-Poe administration looms.
Closest associates with Chiz say the Senator will think twice campaigning against Poe. Poe is in a bind. If she runs as vice president, chances are good, because she fares well at the surveys. That will leave a biblical fight between Roxas and Binay, which, if surveys are again to be believed, would result to a Binay presidency.
Binay's numbers may be slowly going South, but that is exactly what the LP camp wants us to believe. Look closely at these surveys and the opposite is the actual result. Binay is not losing his base. Grace Poe's numbers are improving because she is getting those additional points from somewhere, possibly from Bongbong Marcos' or from other names put there by the survey firm. Binay is holding on.
If talks falter, that assures a Poe-Escudero tandem, which, to be blunt, benefits Escudero more than Poe. Poe would have to fight it out with the vaulted LP machinery and the UNA. Without a very solid support base, Poe stands to lose.
Escudero, meanwhile, will be the runaway winner in the vice-presidential race if Bongbong Marcos will not run. If the NP fields a Cayetano-Marcos campaign, Cayetano will surely lose yet Marcos will definitely win.
Meanwhile, Senator Antonio Trillianes is definitely sure of running for the vice presidency. He's expected to give his opponents a run for their money since his political machinery is stable and expansive.
There is a belief that a two-way fight might result to a dismal defeat of Binay. I don't believe that yarn. Ask around and you'll know what the masses think. In a two-way fight between Roxas and Binay, people will choose Binay anytime. There is this unexplainable disdain against Roxas by most people.
In a two-way fight between Poe and Binay, Poe is expected to put out a good fight but eventually Binay will emerge the winner. If Poe gets Roxas' constituency and some of former president Joseph Estrada's, that is more than enough to defeat Binay.
However, in a three-way fight, with Binay keeping his 25-30% mass base, Poe could probably pull out a stunner since she will eat Roxas' constituency up and may possibly get the numbers enough to pull Binay down to a very slim margin.
Possible configurations this 2016:
1. If talks between the LP camp and the Poe-Escudero camp fails, Mar Roxas may have to run all by himself, which, to be frank, will be perceived as a weak campaign leading to his second defeat at the polls.
2. Binay's camp is leaning towards Berberabe as a potential running mate yet there is a surprise man in the equation which is being convinced to run opposite Binay. I am not at liberty revealing this man but if he agrees, his tandem with Binay will surely be one of the most talked about tandems of this election.
3. The NP is still in a quandary: field their own or coalesce and ensure the victories of their senatorial candidates. There are reports that a Cayetano-Marcos is being prepped. We all know what would happen to Cayetano but at least that gives him a proper "training" for the 2022 elections, yes?
4. The Poe-Escudero tandem is 100% certain. If this happens, expect a Binay-Escudero administration.
5. A Binay-Marcos administration is only possible if Poe runs as a presidential candidate. If Poe runs for the vice presidency, she wins and a Binay-Poe administration looms.
Friday, July 4, 2014
Bongbong Marcos as President?
Four years ago, I was one of those who witnessed a very unique event---a politician playing sax. Yes, we heard already Cabinet members and politicos belting it out like Sinatra but we haven't heard anybody playing any instrument.
I was invited and it was the eve of filing the certificate of candidacy for national posts. There were just four of us and I would not mention my three other colleagues, except to say that they are likewise very active in blogging.
Anyway, it was a nice event. We were invited to attend this dinner at a yatch while the sun sets over Manila bay. Quite a romantic thing right? And quite symbolic because the one who invited us happens to be the scion of a great man villified by his own people for years.
Who would not want to attend a night of music with no less than Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.? Of course, you'll ask---Bongbong playing the sax? Wow.
This is not exactly new for me because everyone knows that if you're a student of Oxford, you'll not just be a man of letters but likewise, a man of the arts. But, the sax? Of course, really now, that is something different.
Bongbong or Bonget for others, BBM for some, has his lovely and endearing wife with him, the lovely Liza. Liza was so gracious to accommodate me and my wife. We were ushered at the first deck of this 3-tiered yatch, which according to sources, were rented out for the occasion.
They served the food. Nothing fancy or extravagant, just the usual stuff. After a few drinks, we then went up, at the second deck and found a whole musical set there. Some middle aged musicians were there. They heat up the event by playing some rock music.
And then the major event---Bongbong Marcos with his sax. He appeared somewhat self-conscious, probably worried on what people would say about him. Filipinos, they say, are judgmental.
Anyway, one of musicians then introduced Bongbong and what do you know---the guy can really play! I don't remember anymore what he played about but the guy knows how to play the sax and for me, that is one thing I remembered about him---he poured his soul into his music, something very endearing.
Bongbong Marcos for president? Sure.
I was invited and it was the eve of filing the certificate of candidacy for national posts. There were just four of us and I would not mention my three other colleagues, except to say that they are likewise very active in blogging.
Anyway, it was a nice event. We were invited to attend this dinner at a yatch while the sun sets over Manila bay. Quite a romantic thing right? And quite symbolic because the one who invited us happens to be the scion of a great man villified by his own people for years.
Who would not want to attend a night of music with no less than Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.? Of course, you'll ask---Bongbong playing the sax? Wow.
This is not exactly new for me because everyone knows that if you're a student of Oxford, you'll not just be a man of letters but likewise, a man of the arts. But, the sax? Of course, really now, that is something different.
Bongbong or Bonget for others, BBM for some, has his lovely and endearing wife with him, the lovely Liza. Liza was so gracious to accommodate me and my wife. We were ushered at the first deck of this 3-tiered yatch, which according to sources, were rented out for the occasion.
They served the food. Nothing fancy or extravagant, just the usual stuff. After a few drinks, we then went up, at the second deck and found a whole musical set there. Some middle aged musicians were there. They heat up the event by playing some rock music.
And then the major event---Bongbong Marcos with his sax. He appeared somewhat self-conscious, probably worried on what people would say about him. Filipinos, they say, are judgmental.
Anyway, one of musicians then introduced Bongbong and what do you know---the guy can really play! I don't remember anymore what he played about but the guy knows how to play the sax and for me, that is one thing I remembered about him---he poured his soul into his music, something very endearing.
Bongbong Marcos for president? Sure.
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Our President for 2016
By 2016, some forty million Filipinos will again go to the polls to vote for their president. Fifty one percent of these millions belong to the 18-34 years old age group, mostly high school graduates, working mostly in service, industrial and agricultural sectors and are highly mobile.
They have just three issues in mind: rising costs of everything, corruption in government and joblessness. These are issues which affect the gut and have been issues since this Republic came to being.
Again, voters will elect those who they think understand their predicament, someone with a very practical solution to pressing daily issues, and someone who provides the hope that many of these passive survivors need to hear, and cling themselves into.
Those who aspire for the top post will try to amplify their visions and themselves before the media. Many of them will use the internet to plead for the support of the Intelligentsia while use traditional modes of contact with most of those who will vote.
Those who successfully connected themselves with parents will definitely win. Those who animate the minds of the influencers will win.
If elections are held today, Vice President Jejomar Binay is the best man to beat every single one of those who dream of occupying Bahay Pangarap, one of them Mar Roxas.
Why Binay? Because people see in him something which they have. They see in him not just a visionary but a hard worker. He worked himself up. He belonged to the masses and someone even think that he is like Hugo Chavez.
How about Mar Roxas? Well, if he can shed his Mestizo skin, be forthwith, ask his friends to stop pressing private firms for reportedly election funds, and be as honest as possible in discussing his vision for the country, then, maybe, just maybe, he increases his chances for the top plum.
There are others who deserve a break.
Manny Villar remains a highly probable candidate. Bongbong Marcos, to my mind, has the qualities of a great leader and president. Unknown to many, Bongbong Marcos is a radical and an iconic figure. He could propel the country towards greatness again.
For our next president, we need both a popular and a strong willed individual. Popular because he uses that to justify his actions. Strong willed because he needs that for the bureaucracy to toe the line and for everyone to fear him and lessen the incidence of graft and corruption.
They have just three issues in mind: rising costs of everything, corruption in government and joblessness. These are issues which affect the gut and have been issues since this Republic came to being.
Again, voters will elect those who they think understand their predicament, someone with a very practical solution to pressing daily issues, and someone who provides the hope that many of these passive survivors need to hear, and cling themselves into.
Those who aspire for the top post will try to amplify their visions and themselves before the media. Many of them will use the internet to plead for the support of the Intelligentsia while use traditional modes of contact with most of those who will vote.
Those who successfully connected themselves with parents will definitely win. Those who animate the minds of the influencers will win.
If elections are held today, Vice President Jejomar Binay is the best man to beat every single one of those who dream of occupying Bahay Pangarap, one of them Mar Roxas.
Why Binay? Because people see in him something which they have. They see in him not just a visionary but a hard worker. He worked himself up. He belonged to the masses and someone even think that he is like Hugo Chavez.
How about Mar Roxas? Well, if he can shed his Mestizo skin, be forthwith, ask his friends to stop pressing private firms for reportedly election funds, and be as honest as possible in discussing his vision for the country, then, maybe, just maybe, he increases his chances for the top plum.
There are others who deserve a break.
Manny Villar remains a highly probable candidate. Bongbong Marcos, to my mind, has the qualities of a great leader and president. Unknown to many, Bongbong Marcos is a radical and an iconic figure. He could propel the country towards greatness again.
For our next president, we need both a popular and a strong willed individual. Popular because he uses that to justify his actions. Strong willed because he needs that for the bureaucracy to toe the line and for everyone to fear him and lessen the incidence of graft and corruption.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Presidential elections 2016---The Vice Presidential aspirants
Senator Alan Peter Cayetano's name appears in most, if not, all surveys for possible contenders to the vice presidential posts come 2016. And Cayetano seems convinced, what with several of his Upsilonian brothers promising to support him.
His obvious opponent seems to be another Senator, Antonio Trillianes IV, who reportedly told his friends that he is gunning for the second highest post come 2016. Trillianes is very confident of the formidability of his grassroots machine and rightly so. I come to know about his machinery and it is highly consolidated and formidable compared with others.
I think the only one who can muster the same force is former Senator Kiko Pangilinan, who has been relegated to the sidelines because of his open defiance of Mar Roxas. Until now, the promise for a post for the former senator still hangs. He was touted to get the DA post and inspite of all these controversies against Prospero Alcala, Pangilinan remains in his farm somewhere, planting herbs and vegetables. Alcala is a close political ally of Roxas.
That being said, I don't know what Chiz Escudero plans to do with his political career. He can stay as Senator for as long as the Constitution warranties but he has to go up sometime. Is 2016, the right time for him? The question really is money. Does Escudero enjoy the availability of funds, the same thing which Bongbong Marcos enjoys right now?
Bongbong Marcos has an option to run for the vice presidency and wait for another six years before taking part in the political infighting for the presidency. If he guns for the presidency, I think the best tandem for him is a Marcos Poe (MP)?
His obvious opponent seems to be another Senator, Antonio Trillianes IV, who reportedly told his friends that he is gunning for the second highest post come 2016. Trillianes is very confident of the formidability of his grassroots machine and rightly so. I come to know about his machinery and it is highly consolidated and formidable compared with others.
I think the only one who can muster the same force is former Senator Kiko Pangilinan, who has been relegated to the sidelines because of his open defiance of Mar Roxas. Until now, the promise for a post for the former senator still hangs. He was touted to get the DA post and inspite of all these controversies against Prospero Alcala, Pangilinan remains in his farm somewhere, planting herbs and vegetables. Alcala is a close political ally of Roxas.
That being said, I don't know what Chiz Escudero plans to do with his political career. He can stay as Senator for as long as the Constitution warranties but he has to go up sometime. Is 2016, the right time for him? The question really is money. Does Escudero enjoy the availability of funds, the same thing which Bongbong Marcos enjoys right now?
Bongbong Marcos has an option to run for the vice presidency and wait for another six years before taking part in the political infighting for the presidency. If he guns for the presidency, I think the best tandem for him is a Marcos Poe (MP)?
"Jejo Mar", "Binay-Villar" , Escudero-Aquino and other possible tandems for 2016
Credible sources revealed that DILG secretary Mar Roxas has already formed his team for 2016. His friend, Nani Braganza, leads the pack as his campaign cum media manager. Too early? Well, with all the flak Mar is getting, preparing early seems to be the best answer to a serious reputational problem.
The question is---who will be the partner of Mar? Will it be Grace Poe, the political neophyte who got the top post last 2010? a Roxas-Poe or RP? or Mar Grace?
There are some who are suggesting a Roxas-Escudero tandem, something very palatable to most people inside the Aquino administration. Escudero maintains a strong grassroots machinery. It will compliment Roxas' hold of the local officials.
Someone whispered about an Escudero-Kris Aquino tandem...well, what can I say?
How about "Jejo Mar", with the Vice President running for the top post and Mar settling for the vice presidency? That will fully galvanize this administration and move decisively for victory.
According to sources, Jejomar Binay already has his Executive team handpicked and ready to assume their posts the minute he wins the presidency. The Vice president is so confident these days, what with most of his potential enemies under extreme attack.
If this does not stick, then how about a Jejomar-Manny or a Binay-Villar (BV) tandem? Seems likely since former senator Manny Villar has a very nice record of service for the nation. They both have a strong presence in the OFW sector.
There are others out there who are potential presidential candidates...
One example is Manila mayor Joseph Estrada. Don't count him out. Estrada still packs a political punch and seriously, he probably won the 2010 elections. If he runs separate from Binay, that will split the opposition into two, and in an open contest, Binay stands to lose.
How about an Estrada-Poe? That is a sure blockbuster tandem.
Or an Estrada-Marcos?
Bongbong Marcos remains the political darkhorse. He has a very strong grassroots presence and everyone seems convinced that the former strongman's son is a formidable political opponent come 2016.
The only question is---is 2016 the right time for him? He can reprise his father's former political path by gunning for the Senate presidency in the 16th Congress and from there, develop more political points for a shot at the presidency come 2022? By that time, most of his political enemies are either dead or are politically incapacitated.
Or he can go out and try his luck and fight against political heavyweights the likes of Binay, Roxas, Estrada?
The question is---who will be the partner of Mar? Will it be Grace Poe, the political neophyte who got the top post last 2010? a Roxas-Poe or RP? or Mar Grace?
There are some who are suggesting a Roxas-Escudero tandem, something very palatable to most people inside the Aquino administration. Escudero maintains a strong grassroots machinery. It will compliment Roxas' hold of the local officials.
Someone whispered about an Escudero-Kris Aquino tandem...well, what can I say?
How about "Jejo Mar", with the Vice President running for the top post and Mar settling for the vice presidency? That will fully galvanize this administration and move decisively for victory.
According to sources, Jejomar Binay already has his Executive team handpicked and ready to assume their posts the minute he wins the presidency. The Vice president is so confident these days, what with most of his potential enemies under extreme attack.
If this does not stick, then how about a Jejomar-Manny or a Binay-Villar (BV) tandem? Seems likely since former senator Manny Villar has a very nice record of service for the nation. They both have a strong presence in the OFW sector.
There are others out there who are potential presidential candidates...
One example is Manila mayor Joseph Estrada. Don't count him out. Estrada still packs a political punch and seriously, he probably won the 2010 elections. If he runs separate from Binay, that will split the opposition into two, and in an open contest, Binay stands to lose.
How about an Estrada-Poe? That is a sure blockbuster tandem.
Or an Estrada-Marcos?
Bongbong Marcos remains the political darkhorse. He has a very strong grassroots presence and everyone seems convinced that the former strongman's son is a formidable political opponent come 2016.
The only question is---is 2016 the right time for him? He can reprise his father's former political path by gunning for the Senate presidency in the 16th Congress and from there, develop more political points for a shot at the presidency come 2022? By that time, most of his political enemies are either dead or are politically incapacitated.
Or he can go out and try his luck and fight against political heavyweights the likes of Binay, Roxas, Estrada?
Sunday, December 29, 2013
2014--a political year for the Philippines
2014 is also a political year for the Philippines--that is, for those who aspire the top Executive post in 2016. This means that we will all see these political personalities becoming more active and more engaged next year than this year's.
Those who aspire the presidency, one expert advise---less exposure is better. The more people talk about you, the more they will remember your weaknesses and inefficiencies, the more chance of you losing the competition.
A confidential study shows that most Filipinos want just to work hard and see less politics in the papers. Those who work hard will reap the benefits. Those who just use media outlets to prop themselves up to stellar status stands to lose rather than gain in the political department.
In Philippine politics, it is not popularity than urges people to vote for you come election time. A decade ago, this is the case. This explains why Gloria Arroyo became Nora Aunor come election time.
There is a thirst for new and fresh faces in politics. There is a silent hatred for traditional politicos or people who are young yet exhibit or show signs of being a trapo. Think of the young Maceda.
Consumer issues will top the headlines next year. Those who will champion lower prices of goods, of power and other utilities will surely win the hearts of many.
Epalism is one thing that most people hate.
One bold prediction for 2016---a new face will emerge as President. This person will emerge like how Obama did when he ran the first time.
Cast out the frontliners right now for the presidency.
Binay is a goner. This early, he along with his son and daughters are showing signs of snobbery, and of royalty, things which Filipinos hate. As they say---hindi pa man presidente, arogante na. That Makati incident and the slowly deteriorating state of Makati City are just two things why people will not vote for him come election time.
Same goes with Mar. Politically, the big horse that is the Liberal, is slowly decreasing its galloping speed and may not have the power nor the wherewithal to finish the race by 2016.
Senator Alan Peter Cayetano is casting his lot as a vice presidential wannabe, yet, his big mouth will surely lead him to destruction, since he is promising many people many things but delivering nothing or less than expected.
People are talking about Grace Poe as a "dark horse" yet, her initial performance as a Senator is a disappointment. This will affect her chances by 2016. It does not mean that your number one placement at the senatorial race in 2010 assures you of a higher post come 2016.
Senator Chiz Escudero is making his moves, using his strong connections with Pnoy, to gain more political points. The problem is, his wrangling with Heart's parents. That scene will haunt him in 2016. Escudero was'nt able to fully erase this scene from the minds of people, especially parents who comprise the bulk of the electorate.
How about Miriam Santiago's antics before young and future voters? Her school tours have impacted greatly on the minds of the young voters. Is she a presidentiable? Not if rational minds unite against her. I don't want to see Manila burning like Rome, with Miriam singing and playing the violin.
Many are talking about Ping Lacson, and how he is able to capture the public's imagination once more. Some say, Lacson is the best bet of the Americans, and when the Americans speak, Filipinos follow. As construction czar, Lacson is in the best position to capture the presidency come 2016. Some rumor mongers say the Americans will pour billions to help him in his job.
Well, Lacson's fate is brighter than others but it does not assure him of the job come 2016. It cuts both ways. If Lacson is not able to do his job as what he promised, then he's a goner. He is actually politically weak. His success depends on one thing---money. This early, Ping does not want to sign anything close to financial papers. How then will he be able to accomplish anything without using public funds?
Lacson faces a dilemma--re-construction means using public funds. He loses if corruption eats just one of his projects. One example--a road project. The Visayas needs more roads. One project tainted with charges of corruption will taint Lacson.
How about Senator Bongbong Marcos then? He is being pump primed for the presidency, with his mother as his endorser.
Well, 2016 stands a good chance of becoming like the sixties when his father, the late president Ferdinand Marcos assumed power. The conditions of the sixties are slowly re-appearing with elite families dominating both political and economic spheres of life.
The Marcos trademark remains spotless if you ask older voters. Young voters do not know what happened during Marcos dictatorial years. Those in the middle age range knows, yet this segment is fragmented.
Marcos has a strong constituency. Marcos has a very strong grassroots based electoral machine that if activated, would possibly give him the presidency. The problem really of Bongbong is the elite families whose interests will be affected once he assumes the presidency. To win, he will have to either cause the deaths of these families or enter into a compromise with them.
His father did these two things---enter into a compromise with some families and left others to die a rather slow economic death. He did not chose one above the other. The thing is, these families have long memories.
(expect a second part of this analysis..)
Those who aspire the presidency, one expert advise---less exposure is better. The more people talk about you, the more they will remember your weaknesses and inefficiencies, the more chance of you losing the competition.
A confidential study shows that most Filipinos want just to work hard and see less politics in the papers. Those who work hard will reap the benefits. Those who just use media outlets to prop themselves up to stellar status stands to lose rather than gain in the political department.
In Philippine politics, it is not popularity than urges people to vote for you come election time. A decade ago, this is the case. This explains why Gloria Arroyo became Nora Aunor come election time.
There is a thirst for new and fresh faces in politics. There is a silent hatred for traditional politicos or people who are young yet exhibit or show signs of being a trapo. Think of the young Maceda.
Consumer issues will top the headlines next year. Those who will champion lower prices of goods, of power and other utilities will surely win the hearts of many.
Epalism is one thing that most people hate.
One bold prediction for 2016---a new face will emerge as President. This person will emerge like how Obama did when he ran the first time.
Cast out the frontliners right now for the presidency.
Binay is a goner. This early, he along with his son and daughters are showing signs of snobbery, and of royalty, things which Filipinos hate. As they say---hindi pa man presidente, arogante na. That Makati incident and the slowly deteriorating state of Makati City are just two things why people will not vote for him come election time.
Same goes with Mar. Politically, the big horse that is the Liberal, is slowly decreasing its galloping speed and may not have the power nor the wherewithal to finish the race by 2016.
Senator Alan Peter Cayetano is casting his lot as a vice presidential wannabe, yet, his big mouth will surely lead him to destruction, since he is promising many people many things but delivering nothing or less than expected.
People are talking about Grace Poe as a "dark horse" yet, her initial performance as a Senator is a disappointment. This will affect her chances by 2016. It does not mean that your number one placement at the senatorial race in 2010 assures you of a higher post come 2016.
Senator Chiz Escudero is making his moves, using his strong connections with Pnoy, to gain more political points. The problem is, his wrangling with Heart's parents. That scene will haunt him in 2016. Escudero was'nt able to fully erase this scene from the minds of people, especially parents who comprise the bulk of the electorate.
How about Miriam Santiago's antics before young and future voters? Her school tours have impacted greatly on the minds of the young voters. Is she a presidentiable? Not if rational minds unite against her. I don't want to see Manila burning like Rome, with Miriam singing and playing the violin.
Many are talking about Ping Lacson, and how he is able to capture the public's imagination once more. Some say, Lacson is the best bet of the Americans, and when the Americans speak, Filipinos follow. As construction czar, Lacson is in the best position to capture the presidency come 2016. Some rumor mongers say the Americans will pour billions to help him in his job.
Well, Lacson's fate is brighter than others but it does not assure him of the job come 2016. It cuts both ways. If Lacson is not able to do his job as what he promised, then he's a goner. He is actually politically weak. His success depends on one thing---money. This early, Ping does not want to sign anything close to financial papers. How then will he be able to accomplish anything without using public funds?
Lacson faces a dilemma--re-construction means using public funds. He loses if corruption eats just one of his projects. One example--a road project. The Visayas needs more roads. One project tainted with charges of corruption will taint Lacson.
How about Senator Bongbong Marcos then? He is being pump primed for the presidency, with his mother as his endorser.
Well, 2016 stands a good chance of becoming like the sixties when his father, the late president Ferdinand Marcos assumed power. The conditions of the sixties are slowly re-appearing with elite families dominating both political and economic spheres of life.
The Marcos trademark remains spotless if you ask older voters. Young voters do not know what happened during Marcos dictatorial years. Those in the middle age range knows, yet this segment is fragmented.
Marcos has a strong constituency. Marcos has a very strong grassroots based electoral machine that if activated, would possibly give him the presidency. The problem really of Bongbong is the elite families whose interests will be affected once he assumes the presidency. To win, he will have to either cause the deaths of these families or enter into a compromise with them.
His father did these two things---enter into a compromise with some families and left others to die a rather slow economic death. He did not chose one above the other. The thing is, these families have long memories.
(expect a second part of this analysis..)
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Is Marcos deserving of a place in Libingan ng mga Bayani?
Libingan ng mga Bayani, a place of serenity where our beloved Sons and daughters of the Motherland rest their tired souls. These souls sacrificed their entire lives for the sake of the Motherland. They were soldiers of the Filipino People. Giving them a parcel of land as their burial place is but a small gesture from an appreciating people.
Ferdinand Marcos was a hero, for all intents and purposes, because he once fought against the foreign invaders during his youth. Marcos was part of the guerillas who, for more than four years, resisted Japanese rule. Never mind if there were doubts as to the authenticity of those medals he earned as a soldier-guerilla. The fact is clear--Marcos did serve the country and for that alone, deserves a parcel of land in the Libingan ng mga Bayani.
After his years as a soldier, Marcos served the country in various capacities--as Congressman, Senator and President. He authored several laws that benefitted most Filipinos. He served honestly as a Senator, and brought honor to the country with his wit, charisma and nationalism. His desire to improve the lot of the ordinary man catapulted him to the highest post of the land.
Yes, Marcos plunged this country into chaos and darkness during his rule as the country's first dictator in 1972. For twenty years, Marcos ruled this country with an iron fist. He defended its borders from threats coming from insurgents. He ordered the killing of many, the diminution of the powers of the traditional elite families and the destruction of freedom. Civil rights were kept, yet, political rights limited.
There are contrasting views as to the twenty year rule of Marcos. Many believe it was a period of general stability, where people can go out of their houses without minding their security, and where people enjoy the benefits of those infrastructures built by the regime.
Behind these scenes of general stability hide thousands of cases of brutality, of inhumanity and of violations of basic human rights. For some, these scenes show the true nature of the regime---a dictatorship of the malevolent kind. For those hit by Marcos' policies, those were dark eras. For the many who felt safe during that era, it was so memorable due to the stark contrast of today.
What really happened was Marcos exhibited the true character of a Machiavelli--he demolished his enemies by destroying the powers of the traditional elites who were enslaving most of the Filipinos with their inhumane rule. From a country ruled by so many pseudo-dictators and petty feudal warlords, Marcos demolished the destructive social structure and replaced it with his own. Marcos created a new set of elites which were not beholden to the traditional ones.
From a constitutional organisation to a personal army, the military became Marcos' ally in building a "New Philippines". The idea was an excellent one, but Marcos forgot one simple political fact---how to restrain the military and keep it aligned with the civilian powers. The military slowly realised its true powers and it showed when it allowed the rise of a militant group within its establishment. Had the military remained professional, it could have been a totally different fate for Marcos.
It was, however, Marcos who actually created the power that would someday bring his ultimate downfall.
Okey--so, what's the verdict?
For me, Marcos deserves to be laid to rest at the Libingan ng mga Bayani for three reasons: first, he was a soldier of the Republic. That alone deserves him a space among our country's heroes. Second, Marcos did something good during his regime---he demolished and limited the powers of the traditional elites. That brought stability to the country. And third, Marcos sacrificed his personal ambitions to build a "New Philippines". He realised that the fragmentation of the social elite structure was hampering growth. When Marcos centralized all power and placed it to the Executive, Marcos actually created a revolution from within. He just failed to realize that the task of nation building is not solitary. Had Marcos created a council of elders and lead it, it could have been a different path altogether. Those who opposed him from the elite groups only wanted to share some power, not to snatch it altogether from him. His mistrust with the elites did him in.
Ferdinand Marcos was a hero, for all intents and purposes, because he once fought against the foreign invaders during his youth. Marcos was part of the guerillas who, for more than four years, resisted Japanese rule. Never mind if there were doubts as to the authenticity of those medals he earned as a soldier-guerilla. The fact is clear--Marcos did serve the country and for that alone, deserves a parcel of land in the Libingan ng mga Bayani.
After his years as a soldier, Marcos served the country in various capacities--as Congressman, Senator and President. He authored several laws that benefitted most Filipinos. He served honestly as a Senator, and brought honor to the country with his wit, charisma and nationalism. His desire to improve the lot of the ordinary man catapulted him to the highest post of the land.
Yes, Marcos plunged this country into chaos and darkness during his rule as the country's first dictator in 1972. For twenty years, Marcos ruled this country with an iron fist. He defended its borders from threats coming from insurgents. He ordered the killing of many, the diminution of the powers of the traditional elite families and the destruction of freedom. Civil rights were kept, yet, political rights limited.
There are contrasting views as to the twenty year rule of Marcos. Many believe it was a period of general stability, where people can go out of their houses without minding their security, and where people enjoy the benefits of those infrastructures built by the regime.
Behind these scenes of general stability hide thousands of cases of brutality, of inhumanity and of violations of basic human rights. For some, these scenes show the true nature of the regime---a dictatorship of the malevolent kind. For those hit by Marcos' policies, those were dark eras. For the many who felt safe during that era, it was so memorable due to the stark contrast of today.
What really happened was Marcos exhibited the true character of a Machiavelli--he demolished his enemies by destroying the powers of the traditional elites who were enslaving most of the Filipinos with their inhumane rule. From a country ruled by so many pseudo-dictators and petty feudal warlords, Marcos demolished the destructive social structure and replaced it with his own. Marcos created a new set of elites which were not beholden to the traditional ones.
From a constitutional organisation to a personal army, the military became Marcos' ally in building a "New Philippines". The idea was an excellent one, but Marcos forgot one simple political fact---how to restrain the military and keep it aligned with the civilian powers. The military slowly realised its true powers and it showed when it allowed the rise of a militant group within its establishment. Had the military remained professional, it could have been a totally different fate for Marcos.
It was, however, Marcos who actually created the power that would someday bring his ultimate downfall.
Okey--so, what's the verdict?
For me, Marcos deserves to be laid to rest at the Libingan ng mga Bayani for three reasons: first, he was a soldier of the Republic. That alone deserves him a space among our country's heroes. Second, Marcos did something good during his regime---he demolished and limited the powers of the traditional elites. That brought stability to the country. And third, Marcos sacrificed his personal ambitions to build a "New Philippines". He realised that the fragmentation of the social elite structure was hampering growth. When Marcos centralized all power and placed it to the Executive, Marcos actually created a revolution from within. He just failed to realize that the task of nation building is not solitary. Had Marcos created a council of elders and lead it, it could have been a different path altogether. Those who opposed him from the elite groups only wanted to share some power, not to snatch it altogether from him. His mistrust with the elites did him in.
Monday, January 17, 2011
AMPATUAN LAWYER AS COMELEC CHAIR
Election specialist Sixto Brillantes Jr. is now the head of the Commission on Elections (COMELEC). Wow. Yet, Senator Alan Peter Cayetano says there's no "wow" factor in his appointment.
I say "wow" because appointing Brillantes Jr. shows the true nature of this administration--it is still playing politics instead of minding the change business. Malacanang chose a pragmatist instead of an idealist, a wrong way to start the change business.
Brillantes is a veteran of COMELEC wars, among them, the manipulation of poll results in Maguindanao, the province of the Ampatuans. Numerous ballot boxes were found there. And the Ampatuans are no expert in election law, they are only experts in killing their enemies, and stuffing their mouths with earth. Who then advised them to hide those ballot boxes?
Justice secretary Leila de Lima says Brillantes' appointment will improve the image and reputation of the COMELEC. Come on, dear Mam! How will that happen when everyone knows that Brillantes orchestrated several issues that actually put the COMELEC's reputation at stake.
What this administration is concerned about is the possibility of lording it over the mid-term elections of 2013. This election is crucial because it will determine the fate of those who want to be president in 2016.
If a particular party dominates the politics "from below", it will surely grab the politics "from above". Meaning, grassroots support is very crucial in any election. If a political party strengthens its hold over the grassroots machinery, then, whoever does that, will win the 2016 elections.
The Liberals want nothing more than this. Mar Roxas is again putting his lot come 2013. He is running as a Senator, in preparation for 2016. Chiz Escudero is doing the same thing. Only Jejomar Binay and Bongbong Marcos, potential presidentiables, are staying away from the mid-term elections.
I say "wow" because appointing Brillantes Jr. shows the true nature of this administration--it is still playing politics instead of minding the change business. Malacanang chose a pragmatist instead of an idealist, a wrong way to start the change business.
Brillantes is a veteran of COMELEC wars, among them, the manipulation of poll results in Maguindanao, the province of the Ampatuans. Numerous ballot boxes were found there. And the Ampatuans are no expert in election law, they are only experts in killing their enemies, and stuffing their mouths with earth. Who then advised them to hide those ballot boxes?
Justice secretary Leila de Lima says Brillantes' appointment will improve the image and reputation of the COMELEC. Come on, dear Mam! How will that happen when everyone knows that Brillantes orchestrated several issues that actually put the COMELEC's reputation at stake.
What this administration is concerned about is the possibility of lording it over the mid-term elections of 2013. This election is crucial because it will determine the fate of those who want to be president in 2016.
If a particular party dominates the politics "from below", it will surely grab the politics "from above". Meaning, grassroots support is very crucial in any election. If a political party strengthens its hold over the grassroots machinery, then, whoever does that, will win the 2016 elections.
The Liberals want nothing more than this. Mar Roxas is again putting his lot come 2013. He is running as a Senator, in preparation for 2016. Chiz Escudero is doing the same thing. Only Jejomar Binay and Bongbong Marcos, potential presidentiables, are staying away from the mid-term elections.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Binay for president? Senator Escudero a playboy?
Vice president Jojo Binay is a tad lower in approval ratings than Noy. Noy got 79% while Jojo, 78%. Curiously, Jojo has not been in the news lately, while Noy hugs the headlines and the inside pages of newspapers almost every single day.
In comparison, Binay is quietly doing his thing while Noy, well, continues to crusade on behalf of his erring Cabinet members, like DPWH Singson. Contrast their management styles, and you get the impression that Binay is silently building his strong mass base while Noy is left alone while his Cabinet members do the wrecking job.
Meaning, Binay's rating continues to remain extremely high because of what's he's doing exactly, not what he says he does in the media.
Politically, its bad for both to have the same strong public perception. Why? Because it leads some people to believe that either one can actually govern this country less of the other.
The perception is, this administration will not last just like Erap's. Which I think is just a misreading of the entire situation. This kind of news is probably propaganda, to prop up the possibility of a Binay presidency in case the SABLAI group continues its job of messing everything up for the President to clean.
These loose talk of the president having drinking sprees inside the palace, of him being a playboy (dating different women every single week) and of him drinking the night away while forgetting the affairs of the state, are all black propaganda meant to clearly picture a government in disarray.
And such news as the erroneous inclusion of Senator Honasan's name in the list of possible rebels out to plead for amnesty are just some of the errors which some people think prove their initial guesses---that the affairs of this government are being handled by lightweights out to have a grand time as high government functionaries.
Curiously though, even Senator Chiz Escudero is being accused right now of marital infidelity, either because he's gay or because he's a lothario. Loose talk says Escudero is shopping around, enjoying his new found power as the force behind Noy and engaging in endless drinking sprees with no less than the Executive secretary.
Of course, Escudero is simply not gay and he's not a lothario. Fact is, the good senator remains extremely loyal to his lovely wife.
These talks which are spreading like wildfire benefits two men: Binay and Senator Bongbong Marcos---two likely contenders for the presidency in 2016.
Marcos remains a very strong contender. His strong showing last elections prove that people still trust the Marcos brand name, despite years of mud slinging from activists and people victimized by the Marcos dictatorial regime. It would not be extremely difficult, people say, of another Marcos again occupying the same place his father abandoned several decades ago.
If elections are held today, and these two men face each other, the outcome is definitely certain: Marcos.
Marcos benefits from all of these faults and perceived disarray in government. The Marcos brandname exudes order. If the Aquino administration continues messing things around, this might justify a resuscitation of the public's animation towards order. That would set the tone for the 2016 elections and this will, extremely favor Bongbong.
In comparison, Binay is quietly doing his thing while Noy, well, continues to crusade on behalf of his erring Cabinet members, like DPWH Singson. Contrast their management styles, and you get the impression that Binay is silently building his strong mass base while Noy is left alone while his Cabinet members do the wrecking job.
Meaning, Binay's rating continues to remain extremely high because of what's he's doing exactly, not what he says he does in the media.
Politically, its bad for both to have the same strong public perception. Why? Because it leads some people to believe that either one can actually govern this country less of the other.
The perception is, this administration will not last just like Erap's. Which I think is just a misreading of the entire situation. This kind of news is probably propaganda, to prop up the possibility of a Binay presidency in case the SABLAI group continues its job of messing everything up for the President to clean.
These loose talk of the president having drinking sprees inside the palace, of him being a playboy (dating different women every single week) and of him drinking the night away while forgetting the affairs of the state, are all black propaganda meant to clearly picture a government in disarray.
And such news as the erroneous inclusion of Senator Honasan's name in the list of possible rebels out to plead for amnesty are just some of the errors which some people think prove their initial guesses---that the affairs of this government are being handled by lightweights out to have a grand time as high government functionaries.
Curiously though, even Senator Chiz Escudero is being accused right now of marital infidelity, either because he's gay or because he's a lothario. Loose talk says Escudero is shopping around, enjoying his new found power as the force behind Noy and engaging in endless drinking sprees with no less than the Executive secretary.
Of course, Escudero is simply not gay and he's not a lothario. Fact is, the good senator remains extremely loyal to his lovely wife.
These talks which are spreading like wildfire benefits two men: Binay and Senator Bongbong Marcos---two likely contenders for the presidency in 2016.
Marcos remains a very strong contender. His strong showing last elections prove that people still trust the Marcos brand name, despite years of mud slinging from activists and people victimized by the Marcos dictatorial regime. It would not be extremely difficult, people say, of another Marcos again occupying the same place his father abandoned several decades ago.
If elections are held today, and these two men face each other, the outcome is definitely certain: Marcos.
Marcos benefits from all of these faults and perceived disarray in government. The Marcos brandname exudes order. If the Aquino administration continues messing things around, this might justify a resuscitation of the public's animation towards order. That would set the tone for the 2016 elections and this will, extremely favor Bongbong.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Six re-electionist senators, sure winners in 2010 elections, says "The Center"
Ed Malay, the lead of this survey group called " The Center" issued another PR-laden article---six re-electionist Senators are sure winners in next year's elections. And the lucky six are: Jinggoy Estrada, Pia Cayetano, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Juan Ponce-Enrile, Lito Lapid and Bong Revilla Jr.
Okey, so expect two brilliant lawyers, an environmentalist, a former presidential son, and two moviestars again at the Senate. And you know what? I think Ed Malay, even without basing it from a survey, is correct in this one.
I read a confidential report, a study on how Filipinos vote. Two of the top four values Filipinos want their candidates to have are: First, a clean record of public service and second, someone who "delivers", meaning, a candidate who actually extends a helping hand to the poor. This may mean even the most self-serving "medical mission" or a "bike rally cum donations rally" but these schemes work---all the time.
This shows that despite hours and hours of voter education, and hours and hours of trying to raise the level of "nationalism" and the necessity for electing "new faces, new names" in the next elections, the results would still be depressing---two aged lawyers, an environmentalist aligned with the biggest real estate magnate and three moviestars---would still be occupying the six top Senatorial slots.
So, now, all "new faces" would have to contest the remaining six slots. And their chances are pretty, pretty slim since familiar names want their political comebacks come 2010: Frank Drilon (former Senate president and now running under the Liberal party), Serge Osmena III (even as an independent, his name still rings a bell), Ralph Recto (even if you hate him because of the VAT issue, his name still registers strong in surveys), Tito Sotto III (voters already forgot the drugs issue and how he stabbed Erap in the back and made the big jump to the Arroyo camp).
So, these four familiar names enjoy a stable political stock. And in an automated elections, where complicity favors the old, traditional political brand names, newer names in politics stand a losing chance in this forth-coming elections.
There are only at least five new names that seemed very strong not just in surveys but also, basing on my inquiries with grass-roots organizers, are:
1. Teofisto Guingona III or "TG"---the political scion of the Guingona clan.
2. Bongbong Marcos--despite the "Marcos" tag, Bongbong's name resonates very, very well with older and intelligent voters.
3. Susan "Toots" Ople---getting lots and lots of support from the ground due to organizing work and online campaigns.
4. General Danny Lim---every one seemed convinced of his drawing and electoral power.
5. Apolinario "Jun" Lozada---very strong in both the Luzon and the Visayas.
These five names, I believe, with fight it out in the end game. Whoever has the longer strand of hair (:-) will survive the hair-pulling event in the stretch.
Yet, there's a catch---since we don't have a very credible electoral body in the name of the Comolect, err, Comelec, we may yet see at least two more administration names there in the final winning Comolect senatorial list. That would mean violence.
Okey, so expect two brilliant lawyers, an environmentalist, a former presidential son, and two moviestars again at the Senate. And you know what? I think Ed Malay, even without basing it from a survey, is correct in this one.
I read a confidential report, a study on how Filipinos vote. Two of the top four values Filipinos want their candidates to have are: First, a clean record of public service and second, someone who "delivers", meaning, a candidate who actually extends a helping hand to the poor. This may mean even the most self-serving "medical mission" or a "bike rally cum donations rally" but these schemes work---all the time.
This shows that despite hours and hours of voter education, and hours and hours of trying to raise the level of "nationalism" and the necessity for electing "new faces, new names" in the next elections, the results would still be depressing---two aged lawyers, an environmentalist aligned with the biggest real estate magnate and three moviestars---would still be occupying the six top Senatorial slots.
So, now, all "new faces" would have to contest the remaining six slots. And their chances are pretty, pretty slim since familiar names want their political comebacks come 2010: Frank Drilon (former Senate president and now running under the Liberal party), Serge Osmena III (even as an independent, his name still rings a bell), Ralph Recto (even if you hate him because of the VAT issue, his name still registers strong in surveys), Tito Sotto III (voters already forgot the drugs issue and how he stabbed Erap in the back and made the big jump to the Arroyo camp).
So, these four familiar names enjoy a stable political stock. And in an automated elections, where complicity favors the old, traditional political brand names, newer names in politics stand a losing chance in this forth-coming elections.
There are only at least five new names that seemed very strong not just in surveys but also, basing on my inquiries with grass-roots organizers, are:
1. Teofisto Guingona III or "TG"---the political scion of the Guingona clan.
2. Bongbong Marcos--despite the "Marcos" tag, Bongbong's name resonates very, very well with older and intelligent voters.
3. Susan "Toots" Ople---getting lots and lots of support from the ground due to organizing work and online campaigns.
4. General Danny Lim---every one seemed convinced of his drawing and electoral power.
5. Apolinario "Jun" Lozada---very strong in both the Luzon and the Visayas.
These five names, I believe, with fight it out in the end game. Whoever has the longer strand of hair (:-) will survive the hair-pulling event in the stretch.
Yet, there's a catch---since we don't have a very credible electoral body in the name of the Comolect, err, Comelec, we may yet see at least two more administration names there in the final winning Comolect senatorial list. That would mean violence.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Bongbong Marcos--a sure winner for the Senate
The Marcoses are still a force to reckon with in the North. Their influence spans provinces. Ilocanos respect Ferdie, the former strongman and that respect transcends political boundaries.
And surely, the Marcoses are still respected by thousands, even millions of our fellow Filipinos throughout the entire country.
Demonizing Bongbong would not affect his chances, not a bit for the Senate. Bongbong, I believe, has a very strong chance, not just because he enjoys a familiar political brandname for a surname but because for the past few years he has proven his worth as a legislator.
Admit it--many of our fellow Filipinos still admire the Marcoses. Despite their excesses when they were in power, the Marcoses are perceived to be least corrupt than the Arroyos. People hate Arroyo's guts because Arroyo, they believe, rank far inferior in terms of intellect and service to the people than the late strongman, yet show a more unquenchable thirst for power.
And why, despite the bad publicity heaped upon the Marcoses by those who fought them, does the North and the entire Nation still feel that everyone owe them a lot of favor?
Simple---during Marcos' time, people felt safer than living in a pseudo-democratic society such as this one being run by Arroyo.
Now, those who say that Bongbong deserves to be at the Senate because he espouse nationalist causes during his stint as a legislator also has a point. Bongbong, if you will, is an improved Ferdie. I would not be surprised though if, by 2016, we elect him as president. Bongbong has the same charisma as his father and boasts of the same wit and eloquence that marks a Marcos.
And as they say, the sins of the father should not be a burden of the son.
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