Mrs. Arroyo on her way out?

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recent visit to the Philippines shows the concern by Washington on the increasing tendency towards totalitarianism by the Arroyo administration. Gates told Philippine defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro of Washington's desire to see a peaceful transition of power in 2010. Gates reiterated Washington's desire for Malacanang to uphold democracy through elections.

Mrs. Arroyo was not in the country when Gates, a close adviser of US president Barack Obama, visited the country. Was it a deliberate snub by Malacanang?

Then came a series of disturbing reports about the state of Philippine affairs, the latest this Trafficking of Persons Report 2009 by the US State Department. The US placed the Philippines in its watchlist. The report describes the Philippines as:

"...a source, transit and destination country for men, women and children
trafficked for commercial sexual exploitation and forced labor. " US State
Department, Trafficking in Persons Report 2009."

After this, another pronouncement, this time from US Ambassador to the Philippines Kristie Kenney. Kenney echoed what Gates told Teodoro---Washington's desire to see a peaceful transition of power in 2010. However, if you look very closely, you'll find that there is a distinct difference between Gates' pronouncement and Kenney's statement.

Gates appeal was directed to Malacanang. Kenney's on the other hand, puts the onus of responsibility in ensuring a peaceful transition of power, in the hands of the "Filipino People".
Washington just said that if they cannot rely on Mrs. Arroyo's word to put the democratic process of succession in motion come 2010, maybe the Filipino People would.

Is this Washington's way of telling the Philippine counter-elite to put the People Power process in motion?

As if there's a prepared script, former president Fidel V. Ramos issued a scathing remark against the Arroyo administration, urging the palace to "refrain" from "titillating" the public with "cha-cha" and "running for Congress" and instead, announce its true political agenda come 2010.

And as if on cue, Executive secretary Eduardo Ermita responded with a warning---toe the line or else, Mrs. Arroyo will declare martial rule. Ermita just wittingly or unwittingly revealed the true plan of the palace---a term extension via the martial law route.

Ermita's statement just answered the pleas and appeal of US Defense secretary Robert Gates and Ambassador Kenney's with an emphatic shrug---we're not interested in a democratic transition because we want to extend ourselves in power.

Is Mrs. Arroyo getting back at President Barack Obama for all those snubs and shrugs? Remember that Mrs. Arroyo was like a scorned kid (a scorned devil enfant?) a few months back. Is Mrs. Arroyo just positioning herself as a possible dictator to get Washington's attention?

Yet, the most important question is---is Washington listening and is Barack Obama interested on what Mrs. Arroyo says?

We'll know in a few weeks.

Resolution 1109: Deconstructing GMA & US Sec. Robert Gates

What prompted Mrs. Arroyo to give Speaker Nograles the go-signal to proceed with a patently illegal move last June 2, 2009? In an interview with a Congressman, House reporter Delon Porcalla of the Philippine Star today wrote that Mrs. Arroyo reportedly met with Nograles on the eve of her departure to Korea. Mrs. Arroyo allegedly told Nograles to proceed with the plan of pushing thru with the passage of the Villafuerte resolution.

Mrs. Arroyo knows how this issue would split the newly formed LAKAS KAMPI CMD. She knows the security implications of this and I believe that she heard what US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said about the position of the US government in relation to the 2010 elections. Gates categorically stated the desire of the US to see the peaceful transition of power come 2010.

She also knows that the COMELEC has just practically closed the bidding for the computerized elections, meaning, government is on the verge of spending 18 billion for this.

Now, what prompted her to give the go-signal despite the public pronouncement of the US government position? Is the visit of Gates an indication that the US knew of Mrs. Arroyo's plans and that by sending a top Obama aide here, the US hopes to dissuade her from pushing thru with her evil plan?

Studying her actions for more than ten years indicates that Mrs. Arroyo has an ace in her sleeves. That ace probably is the military.

Be vigilant, be very vigilant. Shortly after the passage of Resolution 1109, the Philippine National Police (PNP) leadership just completed its "routine" change of its administrators. Early on, the AFP also had its routine administrative "shakeup". Members of Class 1978, which adopted Mrs. Arroyo as honorary member, are now on the top echelon of both the PNP and the AFP. Are these generals Mrs. Arroyo's own version of Marcos' Rolex generals?

Likewise, Mrs. Arroyo is also replacing two Supreme Court magistrates with her own nominees. Is Mrs. Arroyo on the verge of completing the consolidation of executive, legislative and judicial power under her wing, backed by a loyal group of generals? It seems so.

What Mrs. Arroyo is doing is laying the groundwork for dictatorial rule. She already controls the Lower House and the recent action shows the isolation of the Senate from the scheme of things. She has the generals under her care and in the next few weeks, Mrs. Arroyo would practically control the Highest Tribunal of the land with her nominees. What would prevent her from declaring Gloria forever?

People power is the solution. This time though, there should be no letup. If we launch People Power now, it should be for the total annihilation of Mrs. Arroyo and her ilk.

On the flipside though, maybe Mrs. Arroyo is just toying with us, flexing her muscles just so that we still "toe the line" and prevent her from being a lameduck president? Some people suggested that to me. Or, quite possibly, there is really a cabal inside the palace with the honest and real intention of carving a dictatorship out of an evil kingdom?

Erap's Magic and De Castro's Charm Offensive

Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro got a big boost today from US Secretary of State Robert Gates. Teodoro had the pleasure (and honor, of course) of welcoming Gates, since Mrs. Arroyo is on official travel to Korea and Russia.

In a virtual "endorsement", Gates said that the US expects the elections to proceed as planned in May 2010 and that they expect no extraconstitutional exercise to subvert it. That's cryptic. Probably Gates must have heard something of a plan by Mrs. Arroyo's lapdogs to launch a God Save the Queen and the US wants to be assured that no such foolish plan exists. Otherwise, Gates was very clear---the US will repulse any plan by any elitist faction to perpetuate a coup or extend Mrs. Arroyo's term through a self-coup.

Yet, this "virtual endorsement" coming from the highest Cabinet member of Obama's administration comes as no surprise, since, everybody knows how good the US thinks about Teodoro.

Gate's statement of praise for Teodoro would now shatter the "myth" being propagated by Bayani Fernando's handlers that he enjoys virtual support from the US, particularly his plan for the presidency. Like all Fernando's dreams, this one tops it.

Teodoro, some quarters say, will go down as a Senatorial candidate, in deference to Kabayan Noli de Castro. De Castro has been figuring quite brilliantly in surveys, the latest one, Pulse Asia, pitting him in a statistical "dead heat" with Nationalist People's Coalition (NCP) presidential wannabe Chiz Escudero (with 17%).

What is so significant about this Pulse Asia survey is the third place position of former president Joseph Estrada. Estrada has not announced his plan yet, but, even just an indication that he's running has been met with positive results.

I'll be writing extensively about the chances of this presidentiables in one paper but one thing is certain---Estrada is still a force to reckon with. His provincial sorties have been working wonders and the re-invigoration of the JEEP NI ERAP nationwide is contributing to this.

The question really is will Estrada regain the charismatic influence he had before. Surely, there is some semblance right now, but, compared in 1998, Erap's magic is somewhat pitifully low, considering that he has been touring the country almost unabated since his release from prison.

Now, the administration has been courting Vice President de Castro and some say, he's a virtual shoo-in for the presidency, of course, in tandem with lone vice presidential bet, Interior secretary Ronnie Puno. A De Castro-Puno tandem is formidable. However, their formidability could weaken with a split from either the Teodoro or Gordon ranks, in which case, that would surely lead to an opposition victory.

But, now, wait a minute. If you analyze the situation very closely, you'll lead to a conclusion that a third force could snatch everything away from De Castro and the Estrada camps. This is the most opportune time for a third force to win. Let me elucidate in the next entry.