Tuesday, December 25, 2007

2008 Start of the Presidential Campaign

If a coup does not occur in either January or February 2008, chances are the following configurations will happen on route to 2010.

Roxas-Legarda

There are strong indications that a tandem between Senators Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda is being done in the woodworks. These two individuals are the strongest candidates for the top posts. Lakas is reportedly talking with either NP or LP. However, Ray Roquero did'nt mention that most Lakas members favoring LP over NP. The question that remains is, what would happen to the principled stand of the LP articulated by LP stalwart former Senator Frank Drilon that their party will never align with the administration party? If LP coalesce with Lakas, Drilon's reputation will definitely be at stake. And surely, their trust ratings will suffer because, obviously, the people will never tolerate a Lakas-LP coalition.

Villar-Noli

Villar has intimated his desire to run for the presidency early on in 2004. The prime problem of Villar is his vice presidential contender. There are indications that NP will side with the administration this year for possible preparations for 2010. Indications are rife that Villar will align with a contender from Arroyo's party, most probably Noli. However, I believe Noli's camp is also preparing for his possible candidacy, at the behest of Arroyo. This tandem will not be the strongest.

Administration choosing either Noli, Bayani or Belmonte

There are signs that these three stooges will campaign hard for the blessing of Arroyo this year. These three coalition partners of Arroyo stand no chance of winning the presidency. Their campaigns are just test missions so to speak. They are being pump primed in the event that Kampi fails to coalesce with NP for 2010. Should any of these talks fail, its either a Noli-Bayani tandem or a Noli-Belmonte tandem will happen. In any case, Bayani Fernando's candidacy is interesting because he can run either as Vice President or Senator. If he runs for Senator, he has a strong chance of winning. This year 2008 is a critical year for Bayani. If his Test mission fails to generate enough dent in his ratings in any surveys, he could probably settle for the Marikina post again in a post-Arroyo regime.

Roxas-Noli

A Roxas-Noli tandem is also formidable. Both groups share the same passion. Both have strong campaign machineries. However, I don't know if Noli would agree on such a coalition. In any case, should their tandem happen, it will occur when Noli forms his own party since I believe, LP stalwarts will never coalesce with Arroyo's.

Binay-Estrada

Within the opposition, there are lingering talks of a Binay-Estrada tandem. Obviously, Jinggoy is a strong vice-presidential candidate and a tandem like this will definitely benefit the Estradas rather than Binay. If this occurs, what will happen to a possible UNO coalition with LP?

Insider info

These talks as revealed by Ray Roquero involves the total absolution of Arroyo's camp from any prosecution after 2010. Knowing these people from NP, they will obviously agree since its a cheap negotiation anyway.

Curio

Notice that no name of either Arroyo or De Venecia came up with all configurations, precisely because, as far as the public is concerned, they are has-beens. The question really is---will these two personas allow themselves to fade away from the public eye? Surely, they would really really press hard for a change of government prior to 2010. This month, an attempt was made in Congress precisely about this one. The hearing will happen in the first week of January. The question is--will NP and LP allow this to happen? The chances of a parliamentary shift is very strong given that the opposition is truly weak at the core.

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