It seems that, based on newspaper reports, President Aquino himself is brokering a Mar Roxas-Grace Poe tandem. Sources say a Grace Poe-Chiz Escudero tandem is a 100% certainty already. Lately, things are reportedly changing, as Aquino himself is trying his darn best to isolate Escudero and give a Roxas-Poe a chance.
Closest associates with Chiz say the Senator will think twice campaigning against Poe. Poe is in a bind. If she runs as vice president, chances are good, because she fares well at the surveys. That will leave a biblical fight between Roxas and Binay, which, if surveys are again to be believed, would result to a Binay presidency.
Binay's numbers may be slowly going South, but that is exactly what the LP camp wants us to believe. Look closely at these surveys and the opposite is the actual result. Binay is not losing his base. Grace Poe's numbers are improving because she is getting those additional points from somewhere, possibly from Bongbong Marcos' or from other names put there by the survey firm. Binay is holding on.
If talks falter, that assures a Poe-Escudero tandem, which, to be blunt, benefits Escudero more than Poe. Poe would have to fight it out with the vaulted LP machinery and the UNA. Without a very solid support base, Poe stands to lose.
Escudero, meanwhile, will be the runaway winner in the vice-presidential race if Bongbong Marcos will not run. If the NP fields a Cayetano-Marcos campaign, Cayetano will surely lose yet Marcos will definitely win.
Meanwhile, Senator Antonio Trillianes is definitely sure of running for the vice presidency. He's expected to give his opponents a run for their money since his political machinery is stable and expansive.
There is a belief that a two-way fight might result to a dismal defeat of Binay. I don't believe that yarn. Ask around and you'll know what the masses think. In a two-way fight between Roxas and Binay, people will choose Binay anytime. There is this unexplainable disdain against Roxas by most people.
In a two-way fight between Poe and Binay, Poe is expected to put out a good fight but eventually Binay will emerge the winner. If Poe gets Roxas' constituency and some of former president Joseph Estrada's, that is more than enough to defeat Binay.
However, in a three-way fight, with Binay keeping his 25-30% mass base, Poe could probably pull out a stunner since she will eat Roxas' constituency up and may possibly get the numbers enough to pull Binay down to a very slim margin.
Possible configurations this 2016:
1. If talks between the LP camp and the Poe-Escudero camp fails, Mar Roxas may have to run all by himself, which, to be frank, will be perceived as a weak campaign leading to his second defeat at the polls.
2. Binay's camp is leaning towards Berberabe as a potential running mate yet there is a surprise man in the equation which is being convinced to run opposite Binay. I am not at liberty revealing this man but if he agrees, his tandem with Binay will surely be one of the most talked about tandems of this election.
3. The NP is still in a quandary: field their own or coalesce and ensure the victories of their senatorial candidates. There are reports that a Cayetano-Marcos is being prepped. We all know what would happen to Cayetano but at least that gives him a proper "training" for the 2022 elections, yes?
4. The Poe-Escudero tandem is 100% certain. If this happens, expect a Binay-Escudero administration.
5. A Binay-Marcos administration is only possible if Poe runs as a presidential candidate. If Poe runs for the vice presidency, she wins and a Binay-Poe administration looms.
Showing posts with label Binay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Binay. Show all posts
Saturday, July 11, 2015
Saturday, May 9, 2015
Poe-Chiz Trial Balloon?
After hearing about a possible Roxas-Poe tandem, here comes another--a Grace Poe-Chiz Escudero or being popularised as "Poe-Francis." Many media friends attest that this is the tandem being formed by most trusted and closest allies of President Aquino. Of course, this will not sit well with the Binay group which continues to support Aquino.
Seems like these people are positioning Poe as a political prostitute. Is she?
Like any other, this so-called "tandem" is just a trial balloon, something being tested by several people. The only question really is, will this tandem be "acceptable" to critical sectors of society, particularly of business? For some members of the business community, yes.
Others say, the Poe-Francis tandem is being floated about to discourage Roxas from running. Roxas knows that he does not have any chance against Vice president Jejomar Binay, who continues to be the frontrunner in any presidential survey.
Is a Poe Francis tandem a direct threat against Binay? At the surface, it seems so, but in reality, it does not.
Popularity does not win elections. Every veteran of political wars out there knows that. You're popular now, but months from now, that's a different case altogether. You could lose your popularity overnight.
Network and a supportive constituency win elections.
Several political analysts think that Poe shares the same constituency as those of Binay and she is the perfect counterpoise against the veteran political campaigner. Well, they can always hope that she does but Poe does not. How about Escudero? Is he enough to trounce Binay in a one-on-one? No.
Escudero may have the best and the brightest political operators but as things stand right now, his network pales in comparison with Binay's.
Now, this analysis would change if Estrada's network is involved. Estrada's political power still exists and packs enormous strength.
If Estrada lends his support behind Poe, that's a different case altogether because that would surely create cracks in Binay's own network.
Admit it---Binay is really the man to beat this coming 2016 elections. Poe is still politically immature. She might be popular in urban cities but I don't believe the bulk of the voting population would rally behind her come election time. For one, Poe does not have anything to prove in the "help department" something very important in any election.
Seems like these people are positioning Poe as a political prostitute. Is she?
Like any other, this so-called "tandem" is just a trial balloon, something being tested by several people. The only question really is, will this tandem be "acceptable" to critical sectors of society, particularly of business? For some members of the business community, yes.
Others say, the Poe-Francis tandem is being floated about to discourage Roxas from running. Roxas knows that he does not have any chance against Vice president Jejomar Binay, who continues to be the frontrunner in any presidential survey.
Is a Poe Francis tandem a direct threat against Binay? At the surface, it seems so, but in reality, it does not.
Popularity does not win elections. Every veteran of political wars out there knows that. You're popular now, but months from now, that's a different case altogether. You could lose your popularity overnight.
Network and a supportive constituency win elections.
Several political analysts think that Poe shares the same constituency as those of Binay and she is the perfect counterpoise against the veteran political campaigner. Well, they can always hope that she does but Poe does not. How about Escudero? Is he enough to trounce Binay in a one-on-one? No.
Escudero may have the best and the brightest political operators but as things stand right now, his network pales in comparison with Binay's.
Now, this analysis would change if Estrada's network is involved. Estrada's political power still exists and packs enormous strength.
If Estrada lends his support behind Poe, that's a different case altogether because that would surely create cracks in Binay's own network.
Admit it---Binay is really the man to beat this coming 2016 elections. Poe is still politically immature. She might be popular in urban cities but I don't believe the bulk of the voting population would rally behind her come election time. For one, Poe does not have anything to prove in the "help department" something very important in any election.
Saturday, April 25, 2015
Where would the NPC and the Nacionalista party put their political bets
The Liberal party has its bet, Mar Roxas, possibly running with Grace Poe. UNA, which is the party formed by merging former president Joseph Estrada's Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) and Vice president Jejomar Binay's PDP-Laban is fielding Binay as their own. Lakas is financing Rudy Duterte's trial balloon but nothing is definite yet.
Now, there are two main parties left which are the Nationalist Party controlled by former senator Manny Villar and the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) of Danding Cojuangco. The NP has three potential candidates, namely Senators Alan Peter Cayetano, Bongbong Marcos and Antonio Trillianes IV. While there's no news coming from the NPC ranks, which formerly tried and failed to field Senator Chiz Escudero.
It is important to know where these parties will go or what direction will they take in the coming months since they are considered serious parties as well with their vaulted mass networks. NP is the second biggest political party yet we haven't heard from them.
Several months ago, talks that Senator Manny Villar was trying to revive his presidential interests went south when his wife, Senator Cynthia Villar herself doused cold water to the proposal. If you study what's happening very closely, it is actually a good time for Villar to revive his presidential ambitions, for several reasons.
1. Villar is perceived by the business community as a safe candidate. He belongs to the community and therefore understands what the business community needs.
2. There is no charge of corruption against Villar.
3. There is no formidable name among those being chosen strong enough to counter Vice president Jejomar Binay.
What is entirely possible is a Villar vs. Binay fight which is like a Mayweather vs. Pacquiao one.
Or, the Nationalista party can very well coalesce with the Liberal Party and secure the senatorial lineup as well as the second spot if Grace Poe decides to join the Nationalista.
In that setup, obviously the LP will gain more because their bet is weak. The only question really is--would it be enough to prop up the sagging popularity of Roxas? I don't think so.
If the Nationalista decides to put their trusts behind Binay's camp, then, the Vice president wins, hands down. The thing is two Nacionalistas, namely Cayetano and Trillianes were responsible for that smear campaign against the Vice president and this puts a merger in a very tight spot.
Of course, that will only happen if these two nincompoops bolt the party and join their principals at the Liberal party.
Possible deserters from the NP side are Cayetano and Trillianes who are expected to join the Liberals. If this happens, then they will be cheering in the sidelines with Grace Poe acting as Mar Roxas' John the Baptist. Will they sacrifice their own promising careers and reputations just to make Roxas' win? Well, this question is surely a multi-million enigma.
Now, how about Lakas?
Surely, Lakas will not field their own candidate because doing so would further decimate their ranks and eventually lead to their irrelevance. They would surely place their bets to the winning or probable winner. I bet my bottom dollar they would go to Binay.
So there.
Let's see what the Nationalist party would do in the next few weeks. Will they field their own or will they just coalesce but to whom or which party?
Now, there are two main parties left which are the Nationalist Party controlled by former senator Manny Villar and the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) of Danding Cojuangco. The NP has three potential candidates, namely Senators Alan Peter Cayetano, Bongbong Marcos and Antonio Trillianes IV. While there's no news coming from the NPC ranks, which formerly tried and failed to field Senator Chiz Escudero.
It is important to know where these parties will go or what direction will they take in the coming months since they are considered serious parties as well with their vaulted mass networks. NP is the second biggest political party yet we haven't heard from them.
Several months ago, talks that Senator Manny Villar was trying to revive his presidential interests went south when his wife, Senator Cynthia Villar herself doused cold water to the proposal. If you study what's happening very closely, it is actually a good time for Villar to revive his presidential ambitions, for several reasons.
1. Villar is perceived by the business community as a safe candidate. He belongs to the community and therefore understands what the business community needs.
2. There is no charge of corruption against Villar.
3. There is no formidable name among those being chosen strong enough to counter Vice president Jejomar Binay.
What is entirely possible is a Villar vs. Binay fight which is like a Mayweather vs. Pacquiao one.
Or, the Nationalista party can very well coalesce with the Liberal Party and secure the senatorial lineup as well as the second spot if Grace Poe decides to join the Nationalista.
In that setup, obviously the LP will gain more because their bet is weak. The only question really is--would it be enough to prop up the sagging popularity of Roxas? I don't think so.
If the Nationalista decides to put their trusts behind Binay's camp, then, the Vice president wins, hands down. The thing is two Nacionalistas, namely Cayetano and Trillianes were responsible for that smear campaign against the Vice president and this puts a merger in a very tight spot.
Of course, that will only happen if these two nincompoops bolt the party and join their principals at the Liberal party.
Possible deserters from the NP side are Cayetano and Trillianes who are expected to join the Liberals. If this happens, then they will be cheering in the sidelines with Grace Poe acting as Mar Roxas' John the Baptist. Will they sacrifice their own promising careers and reputations just to make Roxas' win? Well, this question is surely a multi-million enigma.
Now, how about Lakas?
Surely, Lakas will not field their own candidate because doing so would further decimate their ranks and eventually lead to their irrelevance. They would surely place their bets to the winning or probable winner. I bet my bottom dollar they would go to Binay.
So there.
Let's see what the Nationalist party would do in the next few weeks. Will they field their own or will they just coalesce but to whom or which party?
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Liberal party hitting Binay directly
Is it true that die-hard loyalists of Mar Roxas are now openly funding the smear campaign against Vice president Jejomar Binay? That's what the United Nationalist Alliance or UNA's accusation is. UNA spokesperson Toby Tiangco even said talks between Binay's camp and those of the president are being sabotaged by a small group of Liberal party members close to Roxas.
What this writer heard is that several members of the President's inner circle are trying to influence Pnoy not to endorse Binay and instead, keep in the tradition of a president endorsing one of his cabinet members. Pnoy was so convinced by his classmates' suggestions that he gave the blessing for some of his political allies to hit Binay the hardest.
That explains why Senator Trillianes IV is going around town, trying to ruin the vice president's reputation, picturing him as a trapo with a billion peso graft scandal.
There are reports which show how fractured Malacanang is right now, with one group trying to block Binay's access to the President and another group, close family members of the Cojuangco clan, wanting nothing else but for the president to nominate Binay as his candidate come 2016.
What is certain is that this inner wranglings will definitely lead to one result---a major split between the President and Binay. Yes, the Binays are personal friends of the Aquinos, but you know politics? Like in showbizness, there are no permanent friends in politics. When power is in the trading block, friendships dissolve like wafer.
What this writer heard is that several members of the President's inner circle are trying to influence Pnoy not to endorse Binay and instead, keep in the tradition of a president endorsing one of his cabinet members. Pnoy was so convinced by his classmates' suggestions that he gave the blessing for some of his political allies to hit Binay the hardest.
That explains why Senator Trillianes IV is going around town, trying to ruin the vice president's reputation, picturing him as a trapo with a billion peso graft scandal.
There are reports which show how fractured Malacanang is right now, with one group trying to block Binay's access to the President and another group, close family members of the Cojuangco clan, wanting nothing else but for the president to nominate Binay as his candidate come 2016.
What is certain is that this inner wranglings will definitely lead to one result---a major split between the President and Binay. Yes, the Binays are personal friends of the Aquinos, but you know politics? Like in showbizness, there are no permanent friends in politics. When power is in the trading block, friendships dissolve like wafer.
Sunday, December 29, 2013
2014--a political year for the Philippines
2014 is also a political year for the Philippines--that is, for those who aspire the top Executive post in 2016. This means that we will all see these political personalities becoming more active and more engaged next year than this year's.
Those who aspire the presidency, one expert advise---less exposure is better. The more people talk about you, the more they will remember your weaknesses and inefficiencies, the more chance of you losing the competition.
A confidential study shows that most Filipinos want just to work hard and see less politics in the papers. Those who work hard will reap the benefits. Those who just use media outlets to prop themselves up to stellar status stands to lose rather than gain in the political department.
In Philippine politics, it is not popularity than urges people to vote for you come election time. A decade ago, this is the case. This explains why Gloria Arroyo became Nora Aunor come election time.
There is a thirst for new and fresh faces in politics. There is a silent hatred for traditional politicos or people who are young yet exhibit or show signs of being a trapo. Think of the young Maceda.
Consumer issues will top the headlines next year. Those who will champion lower prices of goods, of power and other utilities will surely win the hearts of many.
Epalism is one thing that most people hate.
One bold prediction for 2016---a new face will emerge as President. This person will emerge like how Obama did when he ran the first time.
Cast out the frontliners right now for the presidency.
Binay is a goner. This early, he along with his son and daughters are showing signs of snobbery, and of royalty, things which Filipinos hate. As they say---hindi pa man presidente, arogante na. That Makati incident and the slowly deteriorating state of Makati City are just two things why people will not vote for him come election time.
Same goes with Mar. Politically, the big horse that is the Liberal, is slowly decreasing its galloping speed and may not have the power nor the wherewithal to finish the race by 2016.
Senator Alan Peter Cayetano is casting his lot as a vice presidential wannabe, yet, his big mouth will surely lead him to destruction, since he is promising many people many things but delivering nothing or less than expected.
People are talking about Grace Poe as a "dark horse" yet, her initial performance as a Senator is a disappointment. This will affect her chances by 2016. It does not mean that your number one placement at the senatorial race in 2010 assures you of a higher post come 2016.
Senator Chiz Escudero is making his moves, using his strong connections with Pnoy, to gain more political points. The problem is, his wrangling with Heart's parents. That scene will haunt him in 2016. Escudero was'nt able to fully erase this scene from the minds of people, especially parents who comprise the bulk of the electorate.
How about Miriam Santiago's antics before young and future voters? Her school tours have impacted greatly on the minds of the young voters. Is she a presidentiable? Not if rational minds unite against her. I don't want to see Manila burning like Rome, with Miriam singing and playing the violin.
Many are talking about Ping Lacson, and how he is able to capture the public's imagination once more. Some say, Lacson is the best bet of the Americans, and when the Americans speak, Filipinos follow. As construction czar, Lacson is in the best position to capture the presidency come 2016. Some rumor mongers say the Americans will pour billions to help him in his job.
Well, Lacson's fate is brighter than others but it does not assure him of the job come 2016. It cuts both ways. If Lacson is not able to do his job as what he promised, then he's a goner. He is actually politically weak. His success depends on one thing---money. This early, Ping does not want to sign anything close to financial papers. How then will he be able to accomplish anything without using public funds?
Lacson faces a dilemma--re-construction means using public funds. He loses if corruption eats just one of his projects. One example--a road project. The Visayas needs more roads. One project tainted with charges of corruption will taint Lacson.
How about Senator Bongbong Marcos then? He is being pump primed for the presidency, with his mother as his endorser.
Well, 2016 stands a good chance of becoming like the sixties when his father, the late president Ferdinand Marcos assumed power. The conditions of the sixties are slowly re-appearing with elite families dominating both political and economic spheres of life.
The Marcos trademark remains spotless if you ask older voters. Young voters do not know what happened during Marcos dictatorial years. Those in the middle age range knows, yet this segment is fragmented.
Marcos has a strong constituency. Marcos has a very strong grassroots based electoral machine that if activated, would possibly give him the presidency. The problem really of Bongbong is the elite families whose interests will be affected once he assumes the presidency. To win, he will have to either cause the deaths of these families or enter into a compromise with them.
His father did these two things---enter into a compromise with some families and left others to die a rather slow economic death. He did not chose one above the other. The thing is, these families have long memories.
(expect a second part of this analysis..)
Those who aspire the presidency, one expert advise---less exposure is better. The more people talk about you, the more they will remember your weaknesses and inefficiencies, the more chance of you losing the competition.
A confidential study shows that most Filipinos want just to work hard and see less politics in the papers. Those who work hard will reap the benefits. Those who just use media outlets to prop themselves up to stellar status stands to lose rather than gain in the political department.
In Philippine politics, it is not popularity than urges people to vote for you come election time. A decade ago, this is the case. This explains why Gloria Arroyo became Nora Aunor come election time.
There is a thirst for new and fresh faces in politics. There is a silent hatred for traditional politicos or people who are young yet exhibit or show signs of being a trapo. Think of the young Maceda.
Consumer issues will top the headlines next year. Those who will champion lower prices of goods, of power and other utilities will surely win the hearts of many.
Epalism is one thing that most people hate.
One bold prediction for 2016---a new face will emerge as President. This person will emerge like how Obama did when he ran the first time.
Cast out the frontliners right now for the presidency.
Binay is a goner. This early, he along with his son and daughters are showing signs of snobbery, and of royalty, things which Filipinos hate. As they say---hindi pa man presidente, arogante na. That Makati incident and the slowly deteriorating state of Makati City are just two things why people will not vote for him come election time.
Same goes with Mar. Politically, the big horse that is the Liberal, is slowly decreasing its galloping speed and may not have the power nor the wherewithal to finish the race by 2016.
Senator Alan Peter Cayetano is casting his lot as a vice presidential wannabe, yet, his big mouth will surely lead him to destruction, since he is promising many people many things but delivering nothing or less than expected.
People are talking about Grace Poe as a "dark horse" yet, her initial performance as a Senator is a disappointment. This will affect her chances by 2016. It does not mean that your number one placement at the senatorial race in 2010 assures you of a higher post come 2016.
Senator Chiz Escudero is making his moves, using his strong connections with Pnoy, to gain more political points. The problem is, his wrangling with Heart's parents. That scene will haunt him in 2016. Escudero was'nt able to fully erase this scene from the minds of people, especially parents who comprise the bulk of the electorate.
How about Miriam Santiago's antics before young and future voters? Her school tours have impacted greatly on the minds of the young voters. Is she a presidentiable? Not if rational minds unite against her. I don't want to see Manila burning like Rome, with Miriam singing and playing the violin.
Many are talking about Ping Lacson, and how he is able to capture the public's imagination once more. Some say, Lacson is the best bet of the Americans, and when the Americans speak, Filipinos follow. As construction czar, Lacson is in the best position to capture the presidency come 2016. Some rumor mongers say the Americans will pour billions to help him in his job.
Well, Lacson's fate is brighter than others but it does not assure him of the job come 2016. It cuts both ways. If Lacson is not able to do his job as what he promised, then he's a goner. He is actually politically weak. His success depends on one thing---money. This early, Ping does not want to sign anything close to financial papers. How then will he be able to accomplish anything without using public funds?
Lacson faces a dilemma--re-construction means using public funds. He loses if corruption eats just one of his projects. One example--a road project. The Visayas needs more roads. One project tainted with charges of corruption will taint Lacson.
How about Senator Bongbong Marcos then? He is being pump primed for the presidency, with his mother as his endorser.
Well, 2016 stands a good chance of becoming like the sixties when his father, the late president Ferdinand Marcos assumed power. The conditions of the sixties are slowly re-appearing with elite families dominating both political and economic spheres of life.
The Marcos trademark remains spotless if you ask older voters. Young voters do not know what happened during Marcos dictatorial years. Those in the middle age range knows, yet this segment is fragmented.
Marcos has a strong constituency. Marcos has a very strong grassroots based electoral machine that if activated, would possibly give him the presidency. The problem really of Bongbong is the elite families whose interests will be affected once he assumes the presidency. To win, he will have to either cause the deaths of these families or enter into a compromise with them.
His father did these two things---enter into a compromise with some families and left others to die a rather slow economic death. He did not chose one above the other. The thing is, these families have long memories.
(expect a second part of this analysis..)
Monday, February 25, 2013
Destabilization looms
This mid-term elections could spark or precipitate a serious political challenge for the Aquino administration. This early, there are three (3) factors that, if not addressed and managed properly, could turn the elections into a spark that will eventually affect the political stability of this government.
One, early accusations about the PCOS machines. Groups are demanding the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) to show transparency by allowing third parties to inspect the integrity of these machines. Two things sparked the "curiosity" of people---early announcement of Senator Frank Drilon of a 12 clean sweep of the Senatorial elections by the administration, and the ongoing legal dispute between Smartmatic and its previous software provider.
Comelec also bungled its early test of the machines. Obviously, this bungling was handled before the media. However, if these happens during the elections, and massive disfranchisement and other under handed tactics deprive candidates of their legitimate votes, this will turn into a nasty and unmanageable situation.
UNA and the camp of Vice President Binay consider this election as crucial for 2016. If Binay loses his grassroots network, he definitely will lose the presidency altogether. This early, critical power players in metropolitical centers are being crippled and disabled, most of them close associates of Binay. The Liberal Party is serious on mounting a successful presidential campaign by 2016, and they would really dismantle every single power center out there which is not within their scope.
Possibility of political parties crying foul this elections? Huge.
Possibility of these parties becoming destabilizers after the elections? Huge.
One, early accusations about the PCOS machines. Groups are demanding the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) to show transparency by allowing third parties to inspect the integrity of these machines. Two things sparked the "curiosity" of people---early announcement of Senator Frank Drilon of a 12 clean sweep of the Senatorial elections by the administration, and the ongoing legal dispute between Smartmatic and its previous software provider.
Comelec also bungled its early test of the machines. Obviously, this bungling was handled before the media. However, if these happens during the elections, and massive disfranchisement and other under handed tactics deprive candidates of their legitimate votes, this will turn into a nasty and unmanageable situation.
UNA and the camp of Vice President Binay consider this election as crucial for 2016. If Binay loses his grassroots network, he definitely will lose the presidency altogether. This early, critical power players in metropolitical centers are being crippled and disabled, most of them close associates of Binay. The Liberal Party is serious on mounting a successful presidential campaign by 2016, and they would really dismantle every single power center out there which is not within their scope.
Possibility of political parties crying foul this elections? Huge.
Possibility of these parties becoming destabilizers after the elections? Huge.
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
2008 Start of the Presidential Campaign
If a coup does not occur in either January or February 2008, chances are the following configurations will happen on route to 2010.
Roxas-Legarda
There are strong indications that a tandem between Senators Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda is being done in the woodworks. These two individuals are the strongest candidates for the top posts. Lakas is reportedly talking with either NP or LP. However, Ray Roquero did'nt mention that most Lakas members favoring LP over NP. The question that remains is, what would happen to the principled stand of the LP articulated by LP stalwart former Senator Frank Drilon that their party will never align with the administration party? If LP coalesce with Lakas, Drilon's reputation will definitely be at stake. And surely, their trust ratings will suffer because, obviously, the people will never tolerate a Lakas-LP coalition.
Villar-Noli
Villar has intimated his desire to run for the presidency early on in 2004. The prime problem of Villar is his vice presidential contender. There are indications that NP will side with the administration this year for possible preparations for 2010. Indications are rife that Villar will align with a contender from Arroyo's party, most probably Noli. However, I believe Noli's camp is also preparing for his possible candidacy, at the behest of Arroyo. This tandem will not be the strongest.
Administration choosing either Noli, Bayani or Belmonte
There are signs that these three stooges will campaign hard for the blessing of Arroyo this year. These three coalition partners of Arroyo stand no chance of winning the presidency. Their campaigns are just test missions so to speak. They are being pump primed in the event that Kampi fails to coalesce with NP for 2010. Should any of these talks fail, its either a Noli-Bayani tandem or a Noli-Belmonte tandem will happen. In any case, Bayani Fernando's candidacy is interesting because he can run either as Vice President or Senator. If he runs for Senator, he has a strong chance of winning. This year 2008 is a critical year for Bayani. If his Test mission fails to generate enough dent in his ratings in any surveys, he could probably settle for the Marikina post again in a post-Arroyo regime.
Roxas-Noli
A Roxas-Noli tandem is also formidable. Both groups share the same passion. Both have strong campaign machineries. However, I don't know if Noli would agree on such a coalition. In any case, should their tandem happen, it will occur when Noli forms his own party since I believe, LP stalwarts will never coalesce with Arroyo's.
Binay-Estrada
Within the opposition, there are lingering talks of a Binay-Estrada tandem. Obviously, Jinggoy is a strong vice-presidential candidate and a tandem like this will definitely benefit the Estradas rather than Binay. If this occurs, what will happen to a possible UNO coalition with LP?
Insider info
These talks as revealed by Ray Roquero involves the total absolution of Arroyo's camp from any prosecution after 2010. Knowing these people from NP, they will obviously agree since its a cheap negotiation anyway.
Curio
Notice that no name of either Arroyo or De Venecia came up with all configurations, precisely because, as far as the public is concerned, they are has-beens. The question really is---will these two personas allow themselves to fade away from the public eye? Surely, they would really really press hard for a change of government prior to 2010. This month, an attempt was made in Congress precisely about this one. The hearing will happen in the first week of January. The question is--will NP and LP allow this to happen? The chances of a parliamentary shift is very strong given that the opposition is truly weak at the core.
Roxas-Legarda
There are strong indications that a tandem between Senators Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda is being done in the woodworks. These two individuals are the strongest candidates for the top posts. Lakas is reportedly talking with either NP or LP. However, Ray Roquero did'nt mention that most Lakas members favoring LP over NP. The question that remains is, what would happen to the principled stand of the LP articulated by LP stalwart former Senator Frank Drilon that their party will never align with the administration party? If LP coalesce with Lakas, Drilon's reputation will definitely be at stake. And surely, their trust ratings will suffer because, obviously, the people will never tolerate a Lakas-LP coalition.
Villar-Noli
Villar has intimated his desire to run for the presidency early on in 2004. The prime problem of Villar is his vice presidential contender. There are indications that NP will side with the administration this year for possible preparations for 2010. Indications are rife that Villar will align with a contender from Arroyo's party, most probably Noli. However, I believe Noli's camp is also preparing for his possible candidacy, at the behest of Arroyo. This tandem will not be the strongest.
Administration choosing either Noli, Bayani or Belmonte
There are signs that these three stooges will campaign hard for the blessing of Arroyo this year. These three coalition partners of Arroyo stand no chance of winning the presidency. Their campaigns are just test missions so to speak. They are being pump primed in the event that Kampi fails to coalesce with NP for 2010. Should any of these talks fail, its either a Noli-Bayani tandem or a Noli-Belmonte tandem will happen. In any case, Bayani Fernando's candidacy is interesting because he can run either as Vice President or Senator. If he runs for Senator, he has a strong chance of winning. This year 2008 is a critical year for Bayani. If his Test mission fails to generate enough dent in his ratings in any surveys, he could probably settle for the Marikina post again in a post-Arroyo regime.
Roxas-Noli
A Roxas-Noli tandem is also formidable. Both groups share the same passion. Both have strong campaign machineries. However, I don't know if Noli would agree on such a coalition. In any case, should their tandem happen, it will occur when Noli forms his own party since I believe, LP stalwarts will never coalesce with Arroyo's.
Binay-Estrada
Within the opposition, there are lingering talks of a Binay-Estrada tandem. Obviously, Jinggoy is a strong vice-presidential candidate and a tandem like this will definitely benefit the Estradas rather than Binay. If this occurs, what will happen to a possible UNO coalition with LP?
Insider info
These talks as revealed by Ray Roquero involves the total absolution of Arroyo's camp from any prosecution after 2010. Knowing these people from NP, they will obviously agree since its a cheap negotiation anyway.
Curio
Notice that no name of either Arroyo or De Venecia came up with all configurations, precisely because, as far as the public is concerned, they are has-beens. The question really is---will these two personas allow themselves to fade away from the public eye? Surely, they would really really press hard for a change of government prior to 2010. This month, an attempt was made in Congress precisely about this one. The hearing will happen in the first week of January. The question is--will NP and LP allow this to happen? The chances of a parliamentary shift is very strong given that the opposition is truly weak at the core.
Friday, September 28, 2007
The problem that is Abalos
Former Congressman and now Iloilo vice governor Rolex Suplico filed an impeachment complaint against Abalos. His complaint was endorsed by two Congressmen, all belonging to the minority block of the House. Talks are flying that both the minority and the majority will support the complaint. It will be a collaborative effort, says Makati Congresswoman Abby Binay. Eighty is the magic number and if they get it, the complaint will automatically be endorsed straight to the Senate.
I think that the complainants will get the requisite number for this effort. However, Abalos will still get off the hook. Why? Because of a technicality.
Should this complaint prosper and goes to the Senate, Abalos can still save his hide by demanding that those Senators who grilled him and made a joker out of him, inhibit themselves from voting for his impeachment. Remember that this happened during the impeachment of former president Joseph Estrada and it could be Abalos way out of this mess. A considerable number of Senators could be forced to inhibit themselves. And who'll be left to decide on his fate? Majority of the administration senators who did not attend the blue ribbon committee hearings. GMA and her ilk would still have the last laugh so to speak in this parody of errors.
ZTE's appeal to the Supreme Court
I've read most of the stories by the ZTE, especially their appeal to the Supreme Court to lift the TRO on the project. Obviously, someone, possibly a PR crisis man, made that story. Its ludicrous. It's wrong timing and wrong angles. ZTE's statements still smack of being proud. The statement suggests ZTE as an arm-twister.
You know why the people still believe that there really was payment of payola in this issue? Because of the stupidity of ZTE's publicists. The PR positioning of ZTE is wrong. First, it should not be made at this time. The issue is still very, very hot. ZTE could have made the appeal in a silent manner. Second, ZTE should refrain from sounding like a goon. Look, the tone of their statement is very wrong. They sound like they want to get their "investment". It reinforces the belief in the public that ZTE did, indeed gave millions of dollars worth of payoffs to some high officials in government. Their statement sounds like they expect Philippine officials to give in to their demand.
What shitholes.
ZTE should instead, keep silent. Anyway, they have been silent for a long time, since this issue exploded in their faces. What would it do to them if they issue statements like this? None. It would only add salt to their wounds.
No PR effort could repair the damage wrought to their reputation caused by this issue. This is the time for them to just sit back, relax, wait for the dust to settle, then, cautiously and silently work for the restoration of their project. Maybe, just maybe, they could still get this project possibly in the future.
I think that the complainants will get the requisite number for this effort. However, Abalos will still get off the hook. Why? Because of a technicality.
Should this complaint prosper and goes to the Senate, Abalos can still save his hide by demanding that those Senators who grilled him and made a joker out of him, inhibit themselves from voting for his impeachment. Remember that this happened during the impeachment of former president Joseph Estrada and it could be Abalos way out of this mess. A considerable number of Senators could be forced to inhibit themselves. And who'll be left to decide on his fate? Majority of the administration senators who did not attend the blue ribbon committee hearings. GMA and her ilk would still have the last laugh so to speak in this parody of errors.
ZTE's appeal to the Supreme Court
I've read most of the stories by the ZTE, especially their appeal to the Supreme Court to lift the TRO on the project. Obviously, someone, possibly a PR crisis man, made that story. Its ludicrous. It's wrong timing and wrong angles. ZTE's statements still smack of being proud. The statement suggests ZTE as an arm-twister.
You know why the people still believe that there really was payment of payola in this issue? Because of the stupidity of ZTE's publicists. The PR positioning of ZTE is wrong. First, it should not be made at this time. The issue is still very, very hot. ZTE could have made the appeal in a silent manner. Second, ZTE should refrain from sounding like a goon. Look, the tone of their statement is very wrong. They sound like they want to get their "investment". It reinforces the belief in the public that ZTE did, indeed gave millions of dollars worth of payoffs to some high officials in government. Their statement sounds like they expect Philippine officials to give in to their demand.
What shitholes.
ZTE should instead, keep silent. Anyway, they have been silent for a long time, since this issue exploded in their faces. What would it do to them if they issue statements like this? None. It would only add salt to their wounds.
No PR effort could repair the damage wrought to their reputation caused by this issue. This is the time for them to just sit back, relax, wait for the dust to settle, then, cautiously and silently work for the restoration of their project. Maybe, just maybe, they could still get this project possibly in the future.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)