Analysis of the Phil. Situation 3: The Political Bigwigs

There are talks that Speaker Prospero Nograles is under extreme pressure. His political party, Kampi, is pressuring him to change his stand against term extension. Kampi even threatens to oust him as Speaker via a coup d'etat. And the one allegedly orchestrating this, is none other than his friend, Ronnie Puno.

It's well known that DILG secretary Ronnie Puno (the chief architect of Kampi's expansion) belongs to the small group of Palace secretaries who favor Gloria's 2020 overtime plan. Puno is allegedly confident that the strength of the anti charter change movement is weak, therefore, this is the time to really go for blood and push charter change down the people's throat. Obviously, a consummate politician like Nograles sees differently and that explains why he's opposing Puno's group. For all his allegedly strong personality facade, Nograles is afraid to go against his former boss, Jose de Venecia Jr. Talks are afloat within the House that JDV is getting more and more support not only from civil society but also in the political scene that there are very strong perceptions that JDV is re-invigorating his political clout. Now, aside from Nograles, Albay Congressman Edcel Lagman already called it quits and already announced his readiness not to participate in the charter change push.

Now, I think that other charter change proponents will fall one by one prior and after December 12. Luis Villafuerte will definitely accede, so do Cebu Congressman Pablo Garcia. Even La Union Congressman Victor Ortega will succumb to public pressure once this accelerates a week before December 12. If these Congressmen fall, the rest will definitely follow. Unlike the Big Yoda (Jose de Venecia Jr.), these Congressmen are not made of sterner stuff. They, surely, will enter into compromises or deals if they see that the winds are changing and blowing in the other way.

At the Senate, almost everybody there are opposed to term extensions. However, it is important to note how Enrile will maneuver to neutralize future opposition to his post as Senate President. Enrile is neither opposition nor administration. He is his own man. He may act independently on his own to solidify forces against Gloria come decision time.

Meanwhile, traditional political parties are positioning themselves away from the ruling coalition and this will definitely show come December 12. Manny Villar's Nacionalista Party has just forged a tactical alliance with the JDV-FVR faction in Lakas. Danding has also given his blessing for NPC to join JDV-FVR. Will there be a formal announcement of the breakout of this Lakas faction from the Lakas-KAMPI ruling coalition? Quite expectedly, yes. Will there be a new dominant party prior to 2010? Yes. It will be the strong political front of Lakas-NPC-Nacionalista. Will this impact on the political future of other political parties? Yes. Who is the most immediate victim? It will be Gloria's KAMPI party who will definitely be marginalized once FVR announces a tactical alliance.

Now, this announcement will definitely be timed after a strong showing against charter change in December 12. Obviously, FVR has already wrote finis his relationship with Gloria and he knows how to counter the expected backlash from Lakas-KAMPI. It would be better if FVR's faction does this after the overthrow of Gloria.

In fact, many are saying that the reason for these sudden political re-alignments is to protect the status quo once a coup succeeds in toppling Gloria. At the surface, it may appear that the December 12 interfaith rally is just your normal rally but in the backstages, things are moving very fast against Gloria. The rally is just a facade to hide the backroom negotiations being done to effect a bloodless transition of power! More on this in the summary of these posts.