The Aquino Problem and Pragmatism

Yesterday was a classic case of political contrasts. A Palace initiated move brought together 49 governors behind the presidential candidacy of Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro, a boost to a sagging campaign, while Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III got additional support from the Kaya Natin! movement and Senator Kiko Pangilinan. Who will eventually win---the candidate with the biggest election machinery or the candidate who claims to have the support of the politicized segment of the middle class?

Aquino supporters are trying very hard to support their assertion of a "groundswell" by presenting personalities behind "people's movements" which have not even proven their political mettle in past or previous political battles. Teodoro's camp, meanwhile, is saying that they have the machinery which the Aquino side does have but in an indeterminate or inordinate way.

Frankly, showing 49 governors backing you up is more formidable than two governors. But, for an idealist, like, say Conrad de Quiros, two governors are enough. It figures why no reformist minded presidential candidate ever won in any post-Marcos elections because reformists are arm-chair ideologues with their own conceptions of reality, not rooted in actuality. Anyway,

Aquino's big problem is his lack of a well-oiled provincial machinery. He will likely get most of the votes in the Metropolitan Manila area and some urban centers as well but it is uncertain whether he registers well in sub-urban and rural areas. These problems cannot be solved by an online campaign nor a tri-media one. These are organizing problems which, at this point, can only solved through building an army of hard-core grassroots organizers who are willing to spend time spreading Aquino paraphernalia in the provincial areas.

Now, the question really is---is it a good political strategy to gather all reform-minded Filipinos in support of an Aquino bid? Yes. Will this bring victory to the so-called "reformist" block of the opposition? No.

If you look and analyze closely the present socio-economic structure of Filipino society, you will find that, to achieve electoral victory, you need to:

1. Convince or organize the 54% of the voting population who belong to the class hovering between the middle and the poor classes. This is the biggest single electoral "block" which can only be organized behind a pragmatic electoral platform.

1. This block is also fragmented into people's organizations, fraternal organizations, peace and order groups, militias, urban poor groups and majority are un-organized.
2. It is in this group that a well-oiled political machinery serves the candidate well. Since this block is not organized within ideological nor political lines, they are vulnerable or susceptible to administration-influence or even with a trapo political party like Erap's.
3. This group is highly pragmatic and will never contribute money behind any political personality's campaign (so, it is highly unlikely that Ed Panlilio's Ninoy for Noynoy campaign be able to take off)

2. In all probability, the 19% share of the middle class is not enough to win an election. And this class is totally fragmented by traditional organizations and civic groups (Rotary, Lions, etc.). And it is quite doubtful if Aquino would snare the entire class and mobilize this for his campaign since almost 30% of this has shown their preference to Chiz Escudero (based on latest Pulse Asia survey 2009) and about 28% to Villar. Now, this class would obviously break itself into tiny "blocks" which could affect either Chiz or Villar's preference share.

3. If the reformist block thinks that Mar Roxas' move would start a series of pull-backs, they are obviously wrong. If you really analyze very closely, the block that sides itself with the Liberal Party is just a small fraction of the so-called "anti-Arroyo" but not necessarily "anti-government" "opposition". They are actually a segment of the organized, politicized and middle class block which is also fragmented.

1. Yes, this block can very well comprise an election machinery but this will never match the machineries of other political parties, like, say Villar's or Erap's or even the administration machinery. Elections in the Philippines are decided by the depth of grassroots penetration. Organizers are the ones who herd voters to the precincts, who spread election info, who influences voting preferences and who practically dictates what voters will write or choose as their candidates.
2. Now, if Aquino wants to win, he may have to gather all these organizers behind him and sustain the relationship through either monthly or weekly allowances. Probably some would actually volunteer but most reliable grassroots organizers have already been "compromised"
3. Aquino should break the hold of other parties in grassroots work by convincing their organizations to show "solidarity" or "break ranks" with other political parties. It is doable yet, time is really not on their side at this point.

To defeat this machinery, the opposition needs to synthesize the idealist or "reformist" with that of the trapo opposition parties, of Estrada's and Escudero's. Never mind Villar's--he will definitely not back down since he already invested billions to his campaign. This block should convince Erap's and Escudero's to "pull-back", which, in all probability, is not "doable" at this point.

In all likelihood, Aquino's bid will go the way of Roco's campaign or even Salonga's. Hate to disappoint but look at the figures and this is true.