Who will clinch the presidency in 2010? Part I

The man who will spearhead the mass movement in May 2010 will become Arroyo's successor. And this man will be among those who will run in the presidential post, the man whom everyone thinks will win but will be cheated even in an automated elections setup.

Who is this man? Let us analyze.

For now, Noynoy Aquino remains the top contender for the presidency. He sustains a commanding lead over his opponents in the survey. What is damaging him at this point are Word-of-Mouth statements which say that his numbers are diminishing or decreasing. Obviously, any one who knows his statistics that when a candidate's numbers are high in the early stages of the campaign, it would "normalize" only by March or April. In Noynoy's case, surely, his numbers will remain high but when the actual start of the campaign begins by February, that will surely change.

Noynoy's problem is easier than, say, Villar's or Estrada's, since the Liberal Party's main worry is just how to sustain Noynoy's trust ratings. Conversion is another problem that is only solvable thru a wide and expansive grassroots machinery.

Though it is easier for Noynoy, in the final stretch, he has to have a big resource base to use in the actual voting and counting phases of the elections. Noynoy has to protect his votes, otherwise, he will lose. In order to do just that, the Liberal party must manage an entire virtual army of volunteers who will risk their lives just to monitor the developments on the ground. Management means billions, and that's an undeniable fact of political life.

Now, this is what bugs the Liberals since, at this point, they do not have the full support of the traditional political financiers, since some of these funders are obviously in other camps, especially in the Nacionalista party.

This is what Noynoy's Liberals and other contenders fear---the time when the Nacionalista Party unleashes their vaunted resources. The Nacionalista, as you know, is perceived to be the "strongest party" with the "biggest and strongest network", because of Senator Manny Villar.

Villar, as you know, is determined to win. He has charted his political career even way back when he ran as Congressman of Las Pinas. He planned this to happen. Villar has his billions and a wide network of supporters, coming from his real estate companies. Villar can actually spend five billion pesos and it will not even affect him in the short-run (long-time yung effects yan).

If Villar gives 1 billion pesos to Mindanao (that is the rumour), that is a game changer. If Villar allots 1.5 billion pesos to Luzon and 1.2 billion pesos in the Visayas and probably half a billion pesos worth of advertising and propaganda materials, he might, just might, clinch it.

The only stumbling block for Villar's ascendancy to the highest post is simply a public uprising.

Are you asking what will happen to Joseph Estrada's PMP and UNO? Their situation is worse than the Liberals since (1) their ranks have been decimated with defections and (2) they don't have the entire Tsinoy community financial support. There are even talks that Estrada might, just might, throw in the towel prior to the elections.

How about Gibo Teodoro's campaign? What will happen to him?

Gibo will only get as far as 14% or 16% of the votes, not enough for a win. Despite the much-publicized strength of the Lakas-KAMPI CMD party, it would take Gibo, more than 5 billion pesos to win, which, under current circumstances, the administration will be hard-pressed to get.

Remember that the Arroyo administration is now operating under a re-enacted budget; meaning, Arroyo will only get or expect to get the same amount of monies from the budget to support Gibo.