The Presidency as Destiny--and force as political game changer come 2016

Senator Cynthia Villar believes that the presidency is something of a "destiny." She mentioned this when asked about her husband reportedly planning another dig at it. Cynthia says her husband, Nacionalista president Manny Villar is busy expanding their business, Vistaland.

The former senator, of course, is really no political animal--but an honest and tiredless CEO known for his acumen in business. He is a rare gem--one of only a few men who has that Midas touch. Villar's ascend to the top is something of a legendary story, not myth.

Imagine, after losing the 2010 elections, Villar went to work and recovered the monies he invested in politics in a span of just months. He played his cards well, and recovered what he lost through the local bourse. He is expanding his business, to include mining.

Now--do we really believe that the presidency is something sort of fate to the one who deserves it? If it is destiny or fate, then, are we saying that the one who now enjoys tremendous public approbation is the one fated to get it?

I've always believe that the presidency is something given to the one whom the bankers, big business and those big minds behind the military have collectively agreed to give it. It is not destiny, but a conspiracy of a few who are really managing the true affairs of this country.

This few belongs those coming from traditional rich families, and those whom various PMA classes have appointed as their representatives. We are still "of an island mentality", as what my friend, Atty JV Bautista describes us, where a few controls the destinies of a 100 million souls.

I've always believe that the presidency is still something not entirely determined by the tastes of those who rule us, but something created by circumstances.

For one, the one trait which we desperately need in order to survive the systemic changes which will happen come 2016, is political astuteness. Our future leaders should exercise tremendous amount of political astuteness in order to steer this country towards the right direction.

The thing that bothers me is the fact that our leaders, save a few, know what this means. Most of them are there in various positions of authority based on being a progeny of another political giant or a proxy of various business, mostly personal and business.

A belief is beginning to form in my generation, a belief that has probably influenced the actions of our predecessors and that is, the importance of force in politics. Many are beginning to think of using force to be able to influence politics.

Force has always been a major factor in politics. Of course, many would disagree but applying force has proven to be a most effective game changer in politics. A generation must exert itself over the old gen to force an agenda.

Our President for 2016

By 2016, some forty million Filipinos will again go to the polls to vote for their president. Fifty one percent of these millions belong to the 18-34 years old age group, mostly high school graduates, working mostly in service, industrial and agricultural sectors and are highly mobile.

They have just three issues in mind: rising costs of everything, corruption in government and joblessness. These are issues which affect the gut and have been issues since this Republic came to being.

Again, voters will elect those who they think understand their predicament, someone with a very practical solution to pressing daily issues, and someone who provides the hope that many of these passive survivors need to hear, and cling themselves into.

Those who aspire for the top post will try to amplify their visions and themselves before the media. Many of them will use the internet to plead for the support of the Intelligentsia while use traditional modes of contact with most of those who will vote.

Those who successfully connected themselves with parents will definitely win. Those who animate the minds of the influencers will win.

If elections are held today, Vice President Jejomar Binay is the best man to beat every single one of those who dream of occupying Bahay Pangarap, one of them Mar Roxas.

Why Binay? Because people see in him something which they have. They see in him not just a visionary but a hard worker. He worked himself up. He belonged to the masses and someone even think that he is like Hugo Chavez.

How about Mar Roxas? Well, if he can shed his Mestizo skin, be forthwith, ask his friends to stop pressing private firms for reportedly election funds, and be as honest as possible in discussing his vision for the country, then, maybe, just maybe, he increases his chances for the top plum.

There are others who deserve a break.

Manny Villar remains a highly probable candidate. Bongbong Marcos, to my mind, has the qualities of a great leader and president. Unknown to many, Bongbong Marcos is a radical and an iconic figure. He could propel the country towards greatness again.

For our next president, we need both a popular and a strong willed individual. Popular because he uses that to justify his actions. Strong willed because he needs that for the bureaucracy to toe the line and for everyone to fear him and lessen the incidence of graft and corruption.

Political and Economic Challenges of 2012

2012 will be an exciting and quite a difficult year, not just for us, Filipinos, but to the rest of humanity. For one, the issue regarding the unified currency system of the European Union (EU) remains unresolved. Second, the US economy continues to slow down, and joblessness pervades. And lastly, the Japanese economy remains sluggish, a victim of a calamity which no one really expected. 


China continues to perform as the new global economy's powerhouse. As it strives to grow itself into the world's strongest economy, it also tries to flex its military muscles to protect its economic gains. As the Middle East rages due to political crises one after the other, the lost opportunities there shift to other economies, like us. However, to fully maximise this opportunity, the Philippines must fully modernize its structures, particularly communications, to benefit from this expected windfall.


Natural and man-made calamities will continue. It is just a matter of how many casualties. Graft and corruption will remain a fixture of our everyday lives because the very system adopted by so-called "democracies" remains flawed. It is just a matter of how much.


Wars and rumours of wars will reverberate especially in the Middle East where thousands of Arabs want nothing more than establish their own interpretations of democracy based on Quranic principles. Governments in that region remain highly influenced by the West and the fall of old hegemons will lead to the rise of new ones. 


Technologies and modernity will rise much faster than last year. As humans discover newer technologies, several problems relating to health will be solved. Other deadly strains however, will sprout and will pose a greater challenge to human ingenuity. 


The Philippines remains on the right path. First, the government's priority is to further develop its infrastructures. The economy is expected to benefit from the downloading of funds per provinces.


HOwever, I question the 39.2 billion pesos allocated by government to the DSWD for the Tawid Pamilya program. These amounts should have been used in other note-worthy and with longer-lasting benefits. This humongous amount, if re-allocated to some things like building an industry altogether might benefit the poorest of the poor better than giving the monies to them. 


2012 is election year to us. Those who will run for higher positions will make their presence felt in the media. 


This early, Midgs Zubiri is preparing for the Senate. He is forming his team already. 


Those expected to relinquish their posts for the Senate are the following: RUffy Biazon, Riza HOntiveros (which garnered a best finish of 14th in the senate race), and General Danilo Lim. Justice secretary Leila de Lima is also expected to resign from her post to prepare for the elections. De Lima, in my estimation, is a sure winner. However, she must hurdle her greatest challenge---the impeachment and the cases filed against PGMA.


Actually, for the Senate, there is only about six positions out of twelve, open for new comers. Expect the "oldies" to come out strong for a comeback. The Senate race is a totally different ballgame since it requires the candidate to have a very strong and traditional mass base for him to win. Without a solid mass base, a candidate, even if he is wealthy, will not make it. 


Manny Villar will probably field his wife, Cynthia, as his replacement. That leaves it to five positions free for newcomers.

Manny Villar and his struggle for the upliftment of the OFWs--a True Servant of the Filipino People

Manny Villar's hands cannot
hide his proletarian roots

Rarely do I write about public personalities here, mainly I deal with issues. But, now, I have to break my silence.


First off, I apologize to Senator Manny Villar for writing derogatory things against him last elections. Secondly, I also admit that I was terribly wrong in my estimation of his worth as a Filipino leader. 


Manny Villar is, I strongly believe, a person of extreme worth. He is a true Filipino patriot, a leader who knows the true feelings of the Filipino masses and his efforts and dedication to the Cause of the Filipino Struggle is REAL.


Like Villar, I do recognize my true proletarian roots. I was not born rich. I was born in a middle class family whose roots trace all the way back to Punta, Santa Ana Manila. Santa Ana is one of the oldest Tagalog communities in the country. 


Yes, my family owns several lands in Leyte and my deceased dad's family heritage in Bulacan is somewhat different with my mom's. Fact is, my ancestry goes all the way back to the Marcoses of Ilocos.  


Yet, I was raised in a proletarian family in Manila. My early years was of struggle. There were several times during Martial law where my family only eat once a day. We went by thru the help of God and thru the hard work and persistence of my aunts, my mom, and my grandparents.

Kung ano man si Villar ngayon, dulot yan ng
kanyang pagsisikhay upang makaahon sa buhay

The family that raised me was a family of Overseas Filipino Workers. My aunts who graduated with PhDs in UP, are now working abroad, one a bank manager in New York and the other, head nurse for more than 30 years in England. My tito, who did not finish college, but now heads the biggest oil refinery in Yemen, is also an OFW, along with his kids who now works in UAE.


And I, myself, am a former OFW who worked for many years as a Manager in Singapore.


If not for my aunts and my tito, it would have been a very hard climb to the top for me. Yes, I was a scholar since my freshman days at the University of the Philippines in Diliman and yes, I was also a working student when I was taking my masteral and law studies. Yet, in several occasions when I need financial help the most, my aunts and my uncle were there for me.


That's why I sense an affinity with Villar. His story is like mine, a story of a Pinoy who struggled in life to have a better life for him and for his family.


When Villar's photos and video shots with OFWs were released and even turned into a commercial for the elections, those scenes were like surreal to most Pinoys, and that included this writer. I thought then that the OFWs were just being used for electoral props.


I was wrong.

Two lovely women: Camille Villar with Susan Toots Ople
during launching of OFW scholarship with
ASHA officials

Last October, the Villar Foundation sponsored the scholarship of 20 distressed OFWs. The scholarship aims to help these victims of illegal recruitment find another job for themselves. The project was transformative in the real sense of the word. Villar wanted nothing more than see these OFWs find the courage and the strength to rebuild their lives and once again, be proud of themselves.


My friend, the long-time OFW advocate Susan Ople was instrumental in making this happen. The OPLE Center entered into an agreement with the Asian School of Hospitality Arts, the premier hotel school in the country, to accommodate Villar's scholars and finance their re-education. 

Can't contain my tears, as an OFW
narrates what happened to her

The scholarship was nothing like any other. Villar paid not just their tuition fees, but also their accommodations and living expenses. IMagine that---a complete scholarship in the truest sense of the word!


I was a scholar before, and my scholarship includes living expenses, but none compares with what Villar did to these distressed OFWs!


I was fortunate to witness this personally, when his daughter Camille and my friend, Susan Ople, unveiled the project last October 27. 


The scholarship was launched at the Coffee Beanery at West Avenue. Many members of the media attended the event. And they saw how sincere and how truthful the Villars were in really seeing that the futures of these OFWs be brighter than what they hoped when they went abroad.

Camille Villar is one of the sweetest creatures I have ever met. She spoke with honesty and her heart really is in the right places. I admit--I had a crush before with Camille. And I consider her one of the loveliest faces in Philippine politics. Fact is, Camille is not just beauty, but brains. Do you know that she was the youngest entrepreneur in the Villar family? She had her Sanrio business when she was in her early teens (12 years old?) and she heads one of her father's companies.


What struck me was Camille's humility. When the launching was finished, she just ordered her Frappe and went in one corner of the coffee shop with her staff. No frills, no extra makeup, just plain yet beautiful Camille. 


She disarms many with her sweetest smile, her loving heart and her grounding. By the way, when she was just a student of the Ateneo, she was one of the top 5 crushes there. But, enough of this. 

Like Father, like daughter
Toots Ople really makes
Ka Blas proud of her
advocacies towards
labor emancipation

Susan "Toots" Ople is just as lovely as Camille. She has the purest of intentions for these OFWs who have nothing in life. The daughter of the country's most admired labor advocate, Senator Blas Ople, Toots continue the advocacy of her father despite her financial difficulty. And really, the Oples are not as wealthy as the Villars are but these Bulakenos are really rich in the advocacy department.


Like my dad's family in San Miguel, Toots Ople's family, especially her dad, started out as a poor yet intelligent student. Ka Blas was a real class act. He transcended his proletarian roots and strove towards greatness. He struggled as a student, and went on as a journalist, just like me. As a journalist, Ka Blas was one of the greatest to have ever lived. 


Though my father's family is somewhat like an haciendero in San Miguel, my own father was not. He was the black sheep of the family, someone who loves drinking and partying while his colleagiala of a mother, gambles the family's heritage away. One day, he woke up from his dalliances and worked hard for his own family. From a mere clerk at the University of the Philippines, my father struggled and became a Business Manager. 


His smoking did him in, and he died without ever seeing his son who was, back then, involved in the serious struggle for real transformation of society. I was deeply involved in my activism back then when my father died. He was asking for me, but I was not there when he breathed his last at the Heart Center.


Ka Blas died the same illness as what my father got. Smoking did him in. Unfortunately, I also contracted the same vice, like my father and Ka Blas. I pray though that I will not suffer the same fate as that of my dad and Ka Blas, whom my deceased father admired and knew when Ka Blas was visiting UP. Ka Blas knew my father (but Toots does not know about this. Really, fate brought us together, me and Toots. I really feel that we are destined to create more beautiful things together, very soon). 


Former president Ferdinand Marcos, who, himself, was also a class act and belonged to a middle class family, noted Ka Blas' wit and intelligence and love for the Filipino Masses. Marcos appointed Ka Blas as his labor secretary. It was there that Ka Blas changed the world.


That's why I cried when this project was launched. It was a dream come true, to be able to directly help uplift someone's life is something to be desired, something laudable, and something which money can't buy.


Like Toots, I am not as rich as the Villar's. But we all are in the same wavelength---we all wanted nothing more than change the lives of many. This is true activism in the truest sense of the word. 


Why did I succumbed to the bourgeois democrat's feelings last elections when we have a person like Manny Villar who belonged to the same class as I am? Why did I not feel the same class feelings when Villar is really the true people's champion than Noynoy?


Had I realized sooner than later that Villar's heart was really in the right place, I would have championed and even died for him. 


Villar promised  to help a 100 OFWs more. The project's aim is very simple---provide a unique chance for these victims of someone's greed to pursue another course and from there, uplift their lives. The initial 20 scholars are now students of the Asian School of Hospitality Arts. They are now taking a hotel hospitality course, something which, by Christmas, they would be able to finish. 


This is a good thing about ASHA courses--after about months of education, students will be deployed in 5-star hotels and restaurants. In their apprenticeship, students are given salaries commensurable with the industry pay rate. 


So, come Christmas, Manny Villar, Susan Toots Ople, me and ASHA will have a real Christmas gift to all these OFWs---JOBS, JOBS, AND A BRIGHTER FUTURE.


ONWARD TO THE UPLIFTMENT OF THE OFWS
WE SALUTE SENATOR MANNY VILLAR AND SUSAN TOOTS OPLE OF THE OPLE CENTER FOR THIS LAUDABLE PROJECT!
WE SALUTE ASHA FOR PROVIDING A LEARNING AND CARING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE VILLAR-OPLE SCHOLARS!


MABUHAY SINA MANNY VILLAR AT SUSAN TOOTS OPLE!
MABUHAY ANG SAMBAYANANG PILIPINO!

Real game changers in May 10 elections

When UP public administration Professor Prospero de Vera predicted a Villar win largely due to "religious block voting", he has clearly shown his political naivete, worst, his fractured political analysis. De Vera's analysis is full of errors. For one, religious block voting has not clearly been established as a major political game changer and two, Philippine politics is entirely unpredictable that a prediction coming from a public administration professor and an issues adviser of a presidentiable is at best, unreliable. De Vera's analysis is more of a propaganda material to "save face" AND put a brave front on behalf of his boss, Manny Villar. Why so?

The real "game changers" in Philippine politics are these:

1. First, Filipino voters traditionally vote along ethnicity lines rather than religious beliefs. The Filipino electorate is divided into ethno-linguistic groups. Filipinos are thinking clearly. There is a clear divide between "religious duties" and "political duties".

Voting blocks in Philippine politics are the following: Ilokano, Tagalog, Bicolano, Cebuano, Ilonggo, Tausug, Maguindanaoan and Suluanon votes. There is no such thing as Bulakeno, Palawaeno, or even Pangalatok vote.

2. Political influence of local executives. This is one of the real game changers. Voters are influenced more by strong political leaders rather than strong religious leaders.

3. There is no such thing as Youth and Labor votes. There is, however, a gender vote. The Youth vote is fractured. It does not necessarily follow that if youth voters vote for a certain candidate, that is a sure win. Yes, the ranks of the youth vote (technically voters from 18 years old to 35 years old are considered youth voters) comprise 75% of the electorate. However, traditionally, this huge block is divided into age groups with differing beliefs and sub-cultural voting patterns. Example, the 18-20 years old age group votes differently than the 21-25 year olds, the 26-30 years old, the 31-35 age groups. The "Youth Vote" is divided along generational lines, hence, cannot be "unified" to support one candidate.

This goes with the "labor vote" because of differing ideological lines.

There is, however, a gender vote. Males vote for male candidates more than they vote for female candidates. Sixty percent of female voters vote for local female candidates than male candidates. However, in nationally elective posts, both male and female voters prefer male candidates more than female candidates. That explains why there are more male legislators than female legislators.

4. There is a regional provincial vote. Voters from the rural areas vote into office candidates perceived as "provincianos" rather than those born in Manila. Visayans prefer candidates from the Visayas while Mindanaoans vote for Mindanaoan candidates. This is quite evident in the senatorial race.

I now understand why Villar is losing the political game---he has an issues adviser who does not know what he is talking about. De Vera should provide his boss with the following analysis, per region, per linguistic block and per gender and age grouping.

Let's analyze based on reports:

1. The Ilocano vote is at best, going to Villar. Villar is expected to clinch the number one spot in the Ilocano provinces due to the endorsement of the very influential Ilocano vote of the Singsons. The Marcoses are still a force to contend with in the Ilocano provinces. Teodoro is second and Aquino, in third place. Pangasinan is one province which is going not entirely with Villar. Pangalatoks will probably go to Estrada, Aquino, Villar and Teodoro.

2. Central Luzon will largely go to Aquino. Nueva Ecija is going for Aquino, similar with Tarlac. Bulacan will largely go to Aquino, Estrada second and Villar third. Zambales and Bataan are going clearly to Villar, Teodoro and Aquino.

3. NCR is critical and being traditionally oppositionist, Aquino will have a big chunk of the votes here, followed by Estrada, Villar and Teodoro. I will not be surprised if Aquino and Estrada will fight tooth and nail for every square inch of Metro Manila.

Quezon city will largely go to Aquino, Villar and Estrada. Camanava is largely Aquino territory, followed by Estrada and Villar. Southern Metro Manila (Paranaque, Pasay,Taguig, Muntinlupa and Las Pinas) will be divided between Aquino and Villar. Pasay is gunning for an Estrada win although Aquino is registering very strong in certain communities.

Eastern Metro Manila is also going for Aquino while central Metro Manila is, again, a toss up between Aquino and Estrada.

4. With the death of former Batangas governor Sanchez, the fight is now between Aquino and Estrada whose influence in the province is still very strong. Certain areas of Batangas will vote for Villar and Teodoro but will not be enough to eclipse an Aquino win.

5. Cavite is clearly Aquino, an irony since most low cost housing projects of Villar are located in the province. There are still some areas which will go to Estrada and Villar, respectively.

6. Laguna is "open territory". Certain areas are clearly going for the Liberals, some to Teodoro, Estrada and Villar. Those near Rizal will be going for Estrada, Districts 1 to Aquino and others to Teodoro and Villar.

7. The Rizal provinces (Tanay, Taytay, Cainta, etc.) are also divided, yet Estrada remains very influential in most areas.

8. Bicolano vote will go largely to Aquino, while the crumbs will be shared equally by Villar, Estrada and Teodoro.

9. Visayan vote is also fractured. Aquino is very strong in Regions 6 but entirely weak in Region 7, which counts Cebu. Cebu has the biggest number of voters and most voters exhibit republican tendencies. What is significant, Cebuanos are influenced by their local government executives. Unlike voters in Metro Manila, voters in Metro Cebu are strongly influenced by their officials.

Villar has a very strong chance of clinching majority of the votes in Cebu, followed by Teodoro, Aquino and Estrada. However, if Teodoro wins Cebuano votes, that will actually benefit Aquino because even if Teodoro wins in Region 7, it will not be enough to defeat him. It is better that Cebuano votes remain divided between Villar and Teodoro.

10. Mindanao is therefore, a region where crucial voter support is needed. Whoever has a huge campaign kitty will win Mindanaoan support. It will be a toss up between Villar and Estrada in this area.

Villar should blame his media handlers if he loses the elections: Better luck next time Manny siguro by 2024

Nacionalista standard bearer Manny Villar is undoubtedly, the most qualified of all presidentiables. He's young. He's intelligent (UP business administration graduate) and really comes from a middle class family. Undeniably, his rise to billionaire status without using his brute strength (like the other Manny) is admirable. His success story is really inspiring.

Now, why is he now slipping--latest Pulse Asia survey shows him at 20% at par with Joseph Estrada, with Aquino at 39%--or about 19 or so percentage points away. Villar was once statistically tied with Aquino. Noynoy has since broken away, far, far away from the billion peso reach of Villar. Why?

First, Aquino did not lie in his campaigns. What he is, that's what the public got. He never lied about his roots, never engaged his enemies to dirty mudslinging and never accused his enemies of being loonies.

Villar did all that. He lied about his roots. What is so wrong with telling people he was once a member of the middle class? That is better than being haciendero. Villar should have at the oneset claimed to have been a member of the middle class, nakuha pa niya ang sympathy votes of the ABC class. Now, because doubts have been raised about his true roots, Villar is now getting the brunt of anger and mistrust from the public.

Villar did not stoop soooo low as to accuse his political enemies of mental diseases or illnesses. In the Philippines, okey lang if you accuse your enemies of graft and corruption but accusing him of being a mental patient? Excuse moi! Okey lang if you accuse somebody who shows like she's a loony, there's basis. Noynoy does not exhibit such. And that, to us voters, is the lowest form of campaigning.

Other than these two, well, his involvement in the bourse scandal is yet another mismanaged thing.

Net---Villar should blame his media handlers for the mess he is in. It's a pity. He spent millions on public relations and billions more on advertising, yet he failed. Oh, by the way, his ads should have been more effective if he chose sana na calibrated response, not yung series upon series of ad placement. Like I wrote over at FV, voters suffered from Villar fatigue and that showed on the surveys.

I don't think Villar will ever recover from this, no. Anyway, there's always a 2016 or even a 2024. By that time, Baby James and his gang of kids in the Villar television ad ay mga voters na. Villar is sure to win by 2024.

Why vote for Noynoy Aquino?

I met Noynoy Aquino for the first time last November 2008, in one of Mar Roxas' events. It was in Balai ni Mar. He came with only one bodyguard and appeared like a professor to me, not a distinguished senator.

What endeared him to me was his humility. He never bragged about his wealth, nor his pedigree nor his superiority to me. I am, but, a humble and poor man. He asked me for a light and I gave it to him and that started a conversation. Though I like to tell you what we talked about, I figured that it will not be fair to him.

Anyway, I was one of those who was shocked when he decided to run for president. When I saw him, I did not imagine that he's "presidential material". There was no glow around him, nothing extraordinary. Unlike, say, Erap and FVR and Cory--they have this "air" around them that suggests that they are not your usual or ordinary people. As they say, those who became or will become presidents usually has this "glow". I never saw that with Noynoy.

What I noticed was his sincerity and humility, traits that every single Aquino possesses. I met his mother and his sister in so many occasions and was struck me was their humility. I was not fortunate enough to meet his father, Ninoy, but shed a bucketful of tears when the dictator's henchmen shot him at the airport tarmac.

I was also one of those who went to Club Filipino and heard him tell the world that he was running for the presidency. I told some of my friends over at Mar's camp that probably, Mar's decision to back out was a wrong move, because, I think that Mar deserved to be the Liberal's standard bearer because he wants to be president while Noynoy was not that convincing, at first.

Then it hit me--what if Noynoy's decision to run was what God really intended? I reminded myself of the Biblical story of David, of how a poor and unknown shepherd became God's anointed one. David never aspired to become King but God anointed him. He never intended to become a warrior of God, but the Almighty put the fear of God in his heart and he vanquished God's enemies through the might of his slingshot.

What prompted Noynoy to seek the highest post of the land? Is it because he want nothing more than glory? No, probably not. Is it because he wanted to save his family's ailing businesses? Obviously not. The Aquino's wealth will probably last a lifetime, even beyond Baby James' life time.

Is Noynoy seeking vainglory? No. And then it hit me again.

When this country was reeling from the distresses caused by a strongman's vanity, one lowly citizen stood up and said " Tama na, Sobra na" and it was his mother, Cory.

When people were being killed left and right, his father, Noynoy, stood up and said " Enough!".

Now, we are in the same depressing situation and its now the son's turn.

How many Aquinos do we need for us to change the lot of this country? One, two, or three? How much more sacrifice will this family do to us before we even realize that it is simply not just them who'll do the talking and walking--more importantly, it must be US.

God gives glory to those who seek not its beauty. And this, probably, is why we now see the only son of Ninoy and Cory giving his entire life, his entire future, so that others may be free.

Yet, I ask--how many more Noynoys do we need for us to finally liberate ourselves from the shackles of ignorance and poverty? Is it right for us to demand more from this family who has been giving us their entire selves for the last four decades?

This probably explains why many Filipinos prefer Noynoy than Villar. Villar desired the presidency, Noynoy does not. Villar prepared for years for this campaign for the top post, Noynoy did not.

And like what God and History always tell us---those whose fate are not congruent with God's, the Almighty will frustrate them.

By the way, the next survey will shock us---former president Joseph Estrada has overtaken Villar and is now statistically tied with Noynoy. What a shocker indeed!

Baby James jokes

This is what happens when you use kids as vote-getters, they tend to commit mistakes. What happened off-stage between mother Kris Aquino and her son, Baby James? This is what.

Joke 1:

After that faux pas on stage, Baby James was whisked away. Kris confronted her kid off-stage.

Kris: " You, baby James, you ha! After rehearsing with you many times, even bought candy and chocolates, you still mentioned Villar, not uncle Noynoy's name! Why, baby James, why?"

Baby James: " Mama, it's your fault! You cut my speech. I was trying to say, ` VILLAR...ROYO!"

Joke 2:

Kris confronting Baby James: " Baby james ha, you naughty kid! Why did you mentioned Villar's name instead of uncle Noy?"

Baby James: " Mama, no. The crowd shouted hello. Di ba kandidato ni Gloria si Villar? I thought they were asking who was on the other line when Gloria said "Hello"

Joke 3:

(after Baby James mentioned Villar's name on stage, Kris whisked her son away and confronted him off-stage)

Kris to Baby James: " Hay, naku baby James. You're like your father, balimbing!"

Baby James: " Why mama, bawal bang mangarap?"

Joke 4:

(after that disastrous incident on stage, Kris did not give Baby James formula milk for a week. Kris hired tutors, speech experts and even called on LP spokesperson Ed Lacierda to help him in rehearsals with Baby James. When the group saw that Baby James is already okey and ready to face the crowd, they, then presented him in one of the LP rallies)

Kris: " Okey ha, I apologize po people for that incident in so-so days ago. Now, here is Baby James. O baby James, sino talaga ang dapat nating iboto?"

Baby James (with emasciated face): " Noynoy! Noynoy!"

Kris: " Very good, Baby James, very goood!"

Baby James: " Noynoy!Noynoy!Noynoy! Ab...noy!"

Joke 5:

Baby James was whisked away when he committed that faux pas on stage. Kris confronted Baby James, who was crying.

Kris: " You, ha, Baby James, you naughty kid, you! Why did you said Villar instead of uncle Noynoy?"

Baby James (crying): " Mama, no. I heard someone shout "C-5!" so I said "Villar"!

Joke 6:

Kris to Baby James: " As a punishment for saying the name of Villar, sige, baby james, instead of enrolling you in Lozada's swimming class, i'll just let you swim sa dagat ng basura!"

Joke 7:

Kris to Baby James: " Baby James, why did you mentioned Villar? You like Villar ba?"

Baby James: " Mama, I heard kasi Papa mentioning Manny Villar's name. Villar reportedly offered Papa millions of pesos just for him to join an NP basketball game!"

Kris: " What??"

Baby James: " Yes mama. And kasama daw dun one of Willie Revillame's dancers!"

Joke 8:

After that incident on stage, Kris and Baby James had a very serious talk off-stage.

Kris: " Baby James, I'm really disappointed. Imagine, I've been trying to make you say "Noynoy" and all you said was "Villar". Why son, why?"

Baby James: " Mama, I thought they're asking who's the `liar' so I said "Vil-liar"?

Joke 9:

Shortly after that incident on stage, Baby James was whisked away and punished.

Kris: " Since you mentioned Villar and not uncle Noy's name, you're grounded for a week! No Wowowee for you Baby James!"

Baby James: " I'm sorry mommy, really very sorry."

Kris: "He, walang sorry-sorry! You stay here so that you'll realize your mistake."

Baby James: " Okey mama. So, sorry talaga!"

A few days later, Baby James met his "gang" infront of their Valle Verde house gate.

Baby Lito: " Hey, bro, heard that one over at TV patrol, what really happened?"

Baby James (whispering): " Hehehe. You know Tolits, I really did mention Villar's name. And you know why?"

Baby Lito: " Why nga baby james?"

Baby James: " Kasi...(motioned for Baby Lito to come closer)...crush ko si Camille, daughter of Villar!"

Baby Lito: " Really?"

Baby James: " Yup. And she promised to marry me as soon as I grow up. She told me walang problema if we get married, since di daw problema ang bahay, they have lots of it! Sabi nga niya, pag naging president daw ang Papa nya, pati mga bundok, patatayuan nila ng sabdibisyon!"

Baby Lito: " Cool!"

Joke 10:

After Baby James mentioned Villar's name, Kris asked her nanny not to give Baby James candy and to guard Baby James. Unknown to Kris, the nanny is a solid Binay supporter. After a week, Kris felt sorry for what she did, so she again took Baby James to one of the LP sorties.

Kris (presenting Baby James to the crowd): " O yan, people, here's Baby James. He will now say who's his candidate for president. Baby James, sinong dapat iboto ng mga tao for president?"

Baby James: (without battling an eyelash) " Noynoy, uncle Noy, iboto nyo po!"

Kris: " Very good Baby James. Now, sino naman ang iboboto as vice president?"

Baby James: " Si Binay!"

Kris: "Ngek!! Nanny, take Baby James away, please!"

(off-stage)

Kris: " Baby James, this is the second time! Right ka na sa first, you bungled naman the second. It's uncle Mar dapat. Why Binay?"

Baby James (crying): " Kasi, I saw the candy wrapper with the name Binay, so I shouted Binay. Besides both uncle Noy and Binay's names ends with "y", di ba?

Manny Villar and his wealth: The story is not if he's poor

There were reports and columns written questioning the real socio-economic status of Nacionalista party standard-bearer Manny Villar. I read some and really, I don't see the point of Villar's political opponents beating a dead horse just to hit him.

For one, who among us really care whether he was born poor or he was a member of the middle class? The fact that he became a billionaire without hurting himself or others is something every one should emulate. The story is not about his roots--the real story is how he amassed that great wealth.

Did Villar stole money from the public coffers just to be the wealthiest legislator of the land? Did Villar sold sub-standard or poorly constructed housing projects that frustrate the dreams of those who bought them?

And did he used his position to help his various companies grow in wealth?

These are the more substantial issues rather than telling people that he lied about his Tondo roots. Give Villar the benefit of the doubt. If he really grew up poor like us, then, so be it. If he grew up in a middle class family, well and good. The point really is how Villar amassed great wealth. That's the story.

I think this thing attacking Villar's proletarian roots will backfire simply because he is exploiting it for his advantage. Villar is now going around town, picturing himself as the underdog.

And you know what? It worked for him before. When he was being attacked personally and he went around town telling people that he was being persecuted by the elite, Villar was able to get a very high survey ratings. The formula is simple--have yourself attacked, become an underdog and the people will sympathize with you.

The Liberals should not do such a thing simply because it will only allow Villar to hug the headlines and recover lost territories.

The greatest loss for Villar came from the middle class, with 16 percentage point drop. The Liberals should concentrate on graft and corruption issues against Villar and his being perceived as an Arroyo stooge. Then, that would definitely affect him.

Villar loses ground battle to Erap

The latest SWS survey just came out. Noynoy Aquino of the Liberal Party is still ahead of Nacionalista standard bearer Manny Villar despite being outclassed in the ads and air war. Aquino's lead is widening, while Villar's numbers are on the downside, probably affected by the latest campaigns by former president Joseph Estrada who continues to garner percentage points. Estrada is now third, narrowing the gap between him and Villar's. Villar's ranking fell by six points while Estrada gained four percentage points, an indication that Villar is the one losing territories with the renewed Estrada campaign.

Like what I wrote here previously, Estrada's campaign is hurting and will hurt Villar's in the coming weeks. Estrada is regaining his lost territories which were "hijacked" by the Nacionalista. Now, will it help that Villar is gaining allies from the administration party? Will this improve his standing notwithstanding? Let's just see in the next survey because these April surveys will show if really local executive support impacts on the way people perceive national candidates.

And it seems that the trend is following a very distinct pattern:

While Estrada regains his old territories hijacked by the Nacionalista, Villar loses considerable areas of support. However, while some areas covered by Estrada went back to him, most areas shift to Noynoy. Hence, the more Estrada campaigns, the more Noynoy benefits and Villar suffers. If this trend continues, Villar will be at the losing end of the game. In the end game however, it will be a very close fight among Noynoy Aquino, Villar and Estrada. The likelihood of a candidate gaining just 5-7% lead over his closest rival exists.

The ABC class is a revelation---Villar lost 16 percentage points which Aquino actually benefitted by gaining 15%. This means that the ABC class has now shifted their loyalties. It is in this class where support for Villar is weakening.

And what is highly significant is the fact that Estrada is gaining NEW territories, a fact which must not escape notice from the Liberal party. Aquino's base of support seemed to be at a standstill--between 35% to 40%--good, but not entirely. It just shows that Aquino's support base is not eating up those of Villar's and even of Estrada's.

There is about 5-6 million people who remains undecided. Critical for Aquino, Villar and Estrada to gain a slice of this huge number. Whoever exploits this will gain a slight advantage in the end. Villar lost considerable support in the "D" Class, about six percentage points, which benefitted Estrada who gained four and Richard Gordon who got two percentage points. In the "E" class, Villar lost four percentage points, while Aquino and Eddie Villanueva got two percentage points each, an indication that the masses are shifting their loyalties.

Noynoy Aquino must do the rounds more than Villar

John Nery's opinion column today is worth reading, especially by those working for the poll victory of Senator Noynoy Aquino. The recent surveys should be a cause of alarm since Aquino's distrust rating has suddenly plummeted from 10 to 12, the same distrust rating of his closest rival, Manny Villar. Though most of his observations are valid, Nery's suggestion is, to my opinion, wrong.

The only way for Noynoy to gain more traction and lessen his distrust rating is simply work to expand his horizontal sectoral or grassroots organization. There is no other way. He cannot fight Villar in the infomercial game since it entails huge sums of money. He can, however, increase his sorties, even make it triple, which is less expensive than putting it in 350,000 peso TV spots.

Being a non-traditional candidate, Noynoy must do a lot of non-traditional methods to gain more conversion of votes. His problem is not awareness. Noynoy's dilemma is how to increase his conversion. If you look at the surveys, Noynoy is effective in reaching out to people. He just needs more areas to cover and more places to go to and share his platform with the people.

And since it is but a few months prior to May 10, Noynoy must cover more ground than his closest rival. Instead of concentrating on vote-rich provinces, Noynoy must go to those areas with smaller constituencies because fraud usually occurs or happens in those places. Meaning, he must not leave any stone unturned.

This month is most critical in any candidate's life simply because this is when people make decisions. Most voters have already decided whom to vote for and many would probably keep those decisions closer to their sleeves. The last few surveys would dictate whether we will have a minority president for this year OR someone with a simple majority. Sectoral endorsements are very important in this phase of the campaign and those who already secured them enjoy a very comfortable margin leading to the polls.

Where is Truth in Advertising in political ads?

Some of the things people are talking about in slums which I visited on TV ads and slogans by politicians

On Noynoy Aquino's " Hindi Ako Magnanakaw" promise:

" Hindi nga siya magnanakaw pero pano ang mga Kamaganak Incorporated? Hindi rin ba sila magnanakaw?"

On Manny Villar's "Naging Mahirap" ad:

" Hindi na siya mahirap pero sa bilyong bilyong pisong ginagasta niya sa kampanya, siguradong pag presidente na siya, TAYO na ang maghihirap."

On Gibo Teodoro's Galing at Talino ad especially that one where he is a pilot:

" Ngayon pa lang, gusto na nyang mag-travel kung saan-saan. At san yung galing? Yung galing na lumikha ng isang warlord sa Maguindanao? At yung talinong hayaang magnakaw ang mga kapanalig niya sa gobyerno?"

On Dick Gordon's Transformer ad:

" Buladas lang. Galing magsalita para itago ang nakaw sa bayan."

On Joseph Erap Estrada's ad:

" Sabi nya tahimik daw sa Mindanao nung panahon nya. Anong tahimik? Dalawang giyera ang inilunsad niya nung panahon nya. Saan ang tahimik dun? Gusto ni Erap, gerahin ang mga Bangsamoro at alagaan lang ang mga tradisyunal na Muslim leaders sa Mindanao."

:-). Truth in advertising should apply to political ads.

Manny Villar, censorship and the Jud`asses' of our Age

What is wrong with our country, tell me? Is it abject poverty? Is it oppression and disrespect of rights? Or, is it the loss of our souls?

Manny Villar has unleashed his dogs of war to fight those who questioned his so-called unethical conduct in relation to the C-5 road insertion controversy. Villar and his rabid defenders have thrown all caution to the wind, sacrificing even the very integrity of the institution which they vowed to respect and protect.

As they say, Villar and his co-horts are ready to even destroy democracy just for 6.2 billion pesos. They are ready to sacrifice even their integrities as legislators in exchange for gold. Ah, these Judases of the modern age!

They do not want Villar censured for a glaring faux pas which is an act that reflects more of his weakness as a human than a legislator. The problem lies with Villar--he does not want to admit that he erred, not on the side of Reason but of Greed. That he probably thinks he is above reproach; that it is but normal, as what his spokesperson Gilbert Remulla admited over DZMM, for someone with an official title in his name to get "patongs". 

Who is really being censured in this C-5 road insertion controvery, please tell me? Is it the one named in the committee report of the Senate Committee of the Whole? Or those Senators who defended the accused and tried to hide the truth from us, the tax-paying public?


Who is really being censored in this C-5 road scandal, which, according to the report, cost Filipinos 6.2 billion pesos? Are these Senators who signed the committee report for release being censured? Or that man who met the one named in the report in Makati Shangri-la a few months ago?

As it stands, the accused has stubbornly refused to face his accusers, but has faced members of the media and used his resoures to get his ads across. My daughter asked–what is so different between the media and the Senate? By choosing the media, Senator Manny Villar probably thought that journalists are more gullible than his colleagues at the Senate. Villar, having been accustomed to the ways of this world, probably thinks that he and his handlers can manage the public sphere more effectively than his not-so-gullible colleagues led by Enrile etal. That Enrile refused that indecent offer shows principled politics, while Villar probably thinks that media could succumb to his millions.


Yet, like the rest of us, journalists are also standing up against Villar. Many radio commentators have said their pieces in public and Villar is being portrayed as a villain instead of an oppressed dog like what his supporters want us to believe.


Villar does not want to be censured but he, himself, is doing censorship. Who among us does not want to know te truth? Who does not want the public to read the Committee report? Is it not Villar?


For me, this is the end of the line for the esteemed Senator. Villar thinks that he has effectively dodged this issue. Woe to us, Filipinos, if we elect someone with an ethical case hanging like a Damocles sword above his head. Woe to us that we now have someone who thinks that it is of no consequence if a member of the Senate refuses to follow the rules and thinks that it is his right to get concessions for being in public office. And woe to us that we now have a man who chose not to face his detractors, his accusers and for thinking that he is above all of us.


The poor, the class which I belong, are not schemers nor robbers. We have a code. We only have our honor and our integrity to latch on. We don’t consider those who steal, who cheat and those without the will to face the consequences of his immoral acts as a member of the society of the poor and of the oppressed.


Anyone can claim that he belonged to the poor. Let his actions speak for itself.

Who will clinch the presidency in 2010? Part I

The man who will spearhead the mass movement in May 2010 will become Arroyo's successor. And this man will be among those who will run in the presidential post, the man whom everyone thinks will win but will be cheated even in an automated elections setup.

Who is this man? Let us analyze.

For now, Noynoy Aquino remains the top contender for the presidency. He sustains a commanding lead over his opponents in the survey. What is damaging him at this point are Word-of-Mouth statements which say that his numbers are diminishing or decreasing. Obviously, any one who knows his statistics that when a candidate's numbers are high in the early stages of the campaign, it would "normalize" only by March or April. In Noynoy's case, surely, his numbers will remain high but when the actual start of the campaign begins by February, that will surely change.

Noynoy's problem is easier than, say, Villar's or Estrada's, since the Liberal Party's main worry is just how to sustain Noynoy's trust ratings. Conversion is another problem that is only solvable thru a wide and expansive grassroots machinery.

Though it is easier for Noynoy, in the final stretch, he has to have a big resource base to use in the actual voting and counting phases of the elections. Noynoy has to protect his votes, otherwise, he will lose. In order to do just that, the Liberal party must manage an entire virtual army of volunteers who will risk their lives just to monitor the developments on the ground. Management means billions, and that's an undeniable fact of political life.

Now, this is what bugs the Liberals since, at this point, they do not have the full support of the traditional political financiers, since some of these funders are obviously in other camps, especially in the Nacionalista party.

This is what Noynoy's Liberals and other contenders fear---the time when the Nacionalista Party unleashes their vaunted resources. The Nacionalista, as you know, is perceived to be the "strongest party" with the "biggest and strongest network", because of Senator Manny Villar.

Villar, as you know, is determined to win. He has charted his political career even way back when he ran as Congressman of Las Pinas. He planned this to happen. Villar has his billions and a wide network of supporters, coming from his real estate companies. Villar can actually spend five billion pesos and it will not even affect him in the short-run (long-time yung effects yan).

If Villar gives 1 billion pesos to Mindanao (that is the rumour), that is a game changer. If Villar allots 1.5 billion pesos to Luzon and 1.2 billion pesos in the Visayas and probably half a billion pesos worth of advertising and propaganda materials, he might, just might, clinch it.

The only stumbling block for Villar's ascendancy to the highest post is simply a public uprising.

Are you asking what will happen to Joseph Estrada's PMP and UNO? Their situation is worse than the Liberals since (1) their ranks have been decimated with defections and (2) they don't have the entire Tsinoy community financial support. There are even talks that Estrada might, just might, throw in the towel prior to the elections.

How about Gibo Teodoro's campaign? What will happen to him?

Gibo will only get as far as 14% or 16% of the votes, not enough for a win. Despite the much-publicized strength of the Lakas-KAMPI CMD party, it would take Gibo, more than 5 billion pesos to win, which, under current circumstances, the administration will be hard-pressed to get.

Remember that the Arroyo administration is now operating under a re-enacted budget; meaning, Arroyo will only get or expect to get the same amount of monies from the budget to support Gibo.

Profiling the 2010 Presidentiables

Yesterday, I had the time to write about the psychological profiles of at least four (4) Presidentiables, namely: Noynoy Aquino, Manny Villar. Gibo Teodoro and Joseph Estrada. Read it at http://pinoyobserver.com. These posts are very interesting because these look at the psychological aspect rather than qualifications or what-have-you. In political analysis, political psychology is an important tool since this looks at how personalities would react in certain situations.

For example, Noynoy Aquino will suffer from some sort of a physical reaction when faced with a stressful situation. He is a strong-willed individual, believes in what he is fighting for, and has a genuine concern for his fellowmen. Under his administration, Noynoy will definitely allow the present crop of business elites to remain the same, and only those areas or fields that need to be changed will be attended to. Noynoy is also a revolutionary. He will welcome a change in the technological landscape. He loves to be with people and listen to their problems. He also has a philosophical mind.

Despite his public persona, Manny Villar has an independent streak in him. He loves life. He is a calculated risk-taker. He values freedom and is an incurable Optimist. He cherishes new ideas, will try them out, yet, will probably come up with one concrete solution after discussing the others. He is quite an adventure seeker and loves to travel to learn on new things. Definitely, under a Villar presidency, expect more foreign travels with him. Yet, society will be freer and more democratic under his stead.

Gibo, as I learned, has similarities with former president Fidel V. Ramos in terms of management and leadership styles. He is very intelligent, a quick thinker and very creative. He is somewhat a Noynoy Aquino opposite since Gibo will probably be more flexible in terms of welcoming new ideas rather than opposing them.

If you closely look at the psychological profile of former president Joseph Estrada, he surely is destined to be the President of our country. He has all the attributes of a Leader. He is bright, a risk-taker, a zealot, and possesses natural managerial skills. He loves action and hates routine. That's why expect a revival of midnight Cabinet meetings should we elect him back.

I have three more profiles to write---Richard Gordon, JC delos Reyes and Eddie Villanueva. Read them all at PinoyObserver (http://pinoyobserver.com/ or at http://www.pinoyobserver.wordpress.com/).

Manny Villar personifies Gloria Arroyo

For the nth time, Senator Manny Villar failed to again honor his previous commitment to the people--that after filing his Certificate of Candidacy, he will start joining presidential debates. Last night, ANC held a presidentiable forum and Villar, not even his shadow, was there.

For somebody whom reports say is very serious in his campaign for the presidency, Villar's action is not just condemnable---it shows Villar's lack of responsibility. Binabastos ni Villar ang taumbayan. Villar is mocking us. Villar just disrespected the Filipino People.

Villar's actions also reinforce the belief that he will just be using his billions just to get elected.

We cannot elect someone who does not respect us. Villar just showed that he is no different from Arroyo.

And it's days after he filed his CoC, yet, we don't even know what Villar is fighting for. We don't know his platform. Aside from motherhood statements that he is for the People and he wants to fight the scourge of poverty, what else Mr. Villar?

We don't know where Villar positions himself when it comes to the RH bill.

We don't know what Villar would do with the secessionist and insurgency problems.

We simply are in the dark as to what Villar will do with private armies.

And we simply don't know how Villar will actually help the poor, whom he claims to belong to.

Is Villar afraid to cross swords with the witty Noynoy Aquino? Is he afraid that he will lose his "mystique" when other contenders expose his lack of an indepth knowledge about the ills of this Nation?

It is very dangerous to elect such a man into office, who thinks that everything is for sale, and who thinks that he is not accountable to explain himself before the very people he wants to serve.

Reso 1472 an exchange deal?

How transactional Philippine politics is, you ask Mang Isko? I will refer you to Senate Resolution 1472, that piece of document purportedly signed by twelve "See-Nay"-tors and allegedly cleared the name of Nacionalista party president bet and billionaire Senator Manny Villar.

The Resolution, which was purportedly written and pushed by no less than Liberal Party member Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan, expressed the "sense of the Senate" and bore the signatures of Aquilino Pimentel Jr., Alan Peter Cayetano, Pia Cayetano, Lito Lapid, Gregorio Honasan, Joker Arroyo, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Ramon Revilla, Jinggoy Estrada, Loren Legarda, Francis Pangilinan and Villar.

The "see-nay" tors who signed based their "sense" on oral testimony instead of overwhelming documentary evidence linking Villar to the mess which was presented before the Senate of the Whole.

Resolution 1472 was released to the media a few days before yesterday's (November 17) announcement of the Villar-Legarda tandem. It had impeccable timing. Yet, like all dastardly deeds, it stinks to the highest heavens.

Shortly after it was released, Senate president Juan Ponce-Enrile was apprised of the sneeky reso and threatened to resign. His colleagues prevailed him.

Eventually, Enrile learned that there was an element of deception here. Most of those who signed the Reso, omitting of course the familiar names of Pimentel, the Cayetano siblings, Pangilinan, Joker and Jinggoy and of course, who else but Loren, are claiming that they signed the reso purportedly after being told that it has the expressed support of the Senate president.

Enrile denied supporting Resolution 1472 which he, in fact, viewed as a direct affront to his leadership. That Reso, says Enrile, violated Senate rules and smacks of fraud. And who else to defend it but the venerable See-nay-tor Francis Kiko Pangilinan, whom pundits say, was the one who lobbied the others to sign.

Strange that a non-Nacionalista party member would push for a Resolution exonerating Villar when it is clear in the Senate rules that it is now the Senate of the Whole who will release the final report on the C-5 controversy.

Wagging tongues cannot but say that maybe Resolution 1472 was an "exchange deal" between the Nacionalista and the Liberal Party, ahead of the expected filing of an ethics case against Liberal Party presidential bet Noynoy Aquino, this time, on another "C-5"-like road controversy involving of course, the conversion of hectares of land in Hacienda Luisita for SLEX.

Remember that it was Cong. Crispin Remulla, a Nacionalista, who "exposed" the supposed complicity of Senator Aquino in that alleged overpricing of Hacienda Luisita land used for SLEX.

Seems like the Nacionalistas used Remulla's expose as a "bait" for the Liberals to enter into an "exchange deal"--tit for tat---your overpriced C-5 in exchange for my overpriced SLEX. Sounds logical right? And with a Liberal (PANGILINAN) leading the pencil pushing and lobbying, all the more suspicious.

And it seems like the Nacionalista got Loren Legarda not because the beautiful environmentalist shares a common goal with their presidential bet Villar. Legarda was one of Villar's rabid commenter at the Senate. And Legarda admitted that it was "all for show", part of the "daily grind" of "usual questions", of "common parliamentary debates".

Statements such as these can't prevent one from asking---did Loren baited Villar to make her his VP in exchange for one signature in that Resolution? That signature might have cost Villar a hand and a limb. Such political prostitution extraordinaire, if you ask me.

The sad thing about this---that Reso 1472 was junked. And the obvious loser was of course, Manny Villar, who mobilize all his resources just to make that Reso happen. Poor Manny. He tried to sneak himself out of the C-5 mess only to learn that, in the end, he still stinks and worst, left holding an empty bag (of tricks?).

As they say, when it stinks, it stinks really bad.

Villar's pamamanhikan kay Loren--will this change Manny's chances?

Michael Lim Ubac, Philippine Daily Inquirer reporter quoted Senator Loren Legarda on the so-called "dramatic pamamanhikan" MannyVillar and his wife did with the lady vice presidential aspirant last Sunday. Loren was quoted thus:

“He told me, ‘I believe in your platform on environment, agriculture and climate change,’ and I said, ‘I believe in your platform on helping migrant workers and pushing for their rights.’ In that respect, we clicked right away,” Legarda told this reporter

Do you believe this crap? I don't.

If you look at it, that Sunday event was grotesque to say the least. It was a melodramatic rendition of a torn 45 vinyl record. Imagine a Manny Villar grinning ear-to-ear when his wife gave him away to Loren. This only happens in Muslim marriages, when the first wife agrees to give her husband away for the second.

It was a marriage of convenience between two traditional politicians---that's it. Were there any talks about protecting the environment, or the OFWs as what Loren said? Bull. Between two trapos, the environment and OFWs are least among the issues they probably discussed.

Loren agreed on Villar's proposition because she needs money to defeat Mar Roxas. Roxas continues to lead by 37% percentage points,  a mile away from Loren's ratings. Without logistics and a network, Loren is a sure loser.

Obviously, among political parties the Nacionalista Party is, by far, the most organized and with the widest of grassroots networks. Loren will not go to Lakas-KAMPI CMD, the party is suffering from organizational disarray. The Liberal will not accept her, neither is the United Opposition (UNO) for reasons the NPC also knows.

In this "grotesque marriage" between a billionaire and a political courtesan, the groom seems on the losing side and the so-called bride got all the goods. Villar has logistics, Loren does not. Villar has the organization, Loren, zero. But Loren has her charms work for her. But, will that charm benefit her political "husband"?

Will a Loren Legarda improve the chances of a Manny Villar in the presidential race? Pulse Asia's October survey sees Villar's rating slipping further south, an indication that last August and September's ratings had already reached a plateau. Villar peaked so early that he now faces a tough climb against formidable and more popular political opponents such as Noynoy Aquino and Joseph Estrada.

Loren's constituency is the same as that of Villar's. To get the presidency, Villar needs to get as many provinces and regional voting blocks as possible. Example---Batangas is a sure give-away to Noynoy after Vilma Santos transferred from Lakas to Liberal. Batangas is one province with the biggest voting block, not just in terms of numbers but moreso as an ethno-linguistic block.

Cavite remains a white country considering that Lacson's influence over the province is more pervasive than the Remulla's.The Remullas are aligned with the Nacionalista. The province's foremost party, the Partido Magdalo is a card-carrying member of Villar's party.

Laguna is obviously another "white country" and in the 2010 elections, support will split between Estrada and possibly Villar's. It is too early to say if Noynoy Aquino's Liberal Party can actually snatch this province away from the two, but now, it's possibly going for Villar more than Erap.

The solid North is also fragmented, with the Marcoses supporting Estrada, a big factor in getting this vote-rich region. While Ilocos Sur remains "liberal", Cong. Eric Singson is not running; his son Owen is. So, it remains to be seen whether Ilocos Sur will break away from tradition and vote in block behind Noynoy instead of Villar.

Pangasinan is also a vote-rich province. The De Venecias, it seems, are rooting for Villar. Yet, their influence in the province is not that formidable compared in previous years. Governor Espino remains a force to reckon with despite rumours of an Agbayani comeback. Having said that, Pangasinan is definitely white country with no major political party claiming the entire province their own.

Bulacan has over 2 million voters. Former governor Josie dela Cruz is reclaiming the governorship, with the "blessing" of incumbent governor Mendoza. Dela Cruz remains a very strong and influential force in the province but traditionally, Bulakenos do not vote as a block. Whoever Dela Cruz aligns herself with will, in the end, get the most votes. Dela Cruz, by the way, is an administration ally. 

Cebu, another vote rich province with 5 million voters, is probably going for Teodoro, but the Liberal Party and UNO have their thing going there. The Nacionalista also has their traditional networks still working for Villar.The Osmenas are working tirelessly for Noynoy while the Garcias are either for Estrada or Teodoro's. Winston Garcia, the son of kingmaker Pablo Garcia, is running for Congress and surely, he will campaign for Teodoro. Places he can reach and those which the Garcias have moral and persuasive influence will go for Teodoro. Gwen Garcia, a Lakas-KAMPI ally, is torn between supporting Erap or Teodoro. The Garcia political clan will have to split their allegiances between Estrada and Teodoro. 

To win therefore, Villar has to get as many minority vote rich areas to undermine the strength of his opponents in major vote-rich areas. Villar hopes that Legarda would do that for him, getting him support from major areas already dominated by his opponents. If you look at Legarda's numbers, however, you'll find that she does not have the moral nor the political influence heavier than the others. Legarda will surely not improve Villar's chances in a substantive way.

Now, if you say that Mindanao will go for a presidentiable whom Legarda supports, you are mistaken. Mindanao goes for the logistical jugular---the one with the money, wins. Villar can get Mindanao without Loren. However, Villar has to go to the Pangandamans, the Mangundadatus and other political "heavyweights" before he can rightfully claim victory. For that, he also needs the blessing of the military. 

Net---Loren is just a prop, a beautiful one indeed. Her team-up with Villar will not change the way the people think about the Nacionalista nor will she deliver the votes needed by Villar to win. In all likelihood, Legarda got the best out of this deal. And Villar will lose his billions.