Who will clinch the presidency in 2010? Part I

The man who will spearhead the mass movement in May 2010 will become Arroyo's successor. And this man will be among those who will run in the presidential post, the man whom everyone thinks will win but will be cheated even in an automated elections setup.

Who is this man? Let us analyze.

For now, Noynoy Aquino remains the top contender for the presidency. He sustains a commanding lead over his opponents in the survey. What is damaging him at this point are Word-of-Mouth statements which say that his numbers are diminishing or decreasing. Obviously, any one who knows his statistics that when a candidate's numbers are high in the early stages of the campaign, it would "normalize" only by March or April. In Noynoy's case, surely, his numbers will remain high but when the actual start of the campaign begins by February, that will surely change.

Noynoy's problem is easier than, say, Villar's or Estrada's, since the Liberal Party's main worry is just how to sustain Noynoy's trust ratings. Conversion is another problem that is only solvable thru a wide and expansive grassroots machinery.

Though it is easier for Noynoy, in the final stretch, he has to have a big resource base to use in the actual voting and counting phases of the elections. Noynoy has to protect his votes, otherwise, he will lose. In order to do just that, the Liberal party must manage an entire virtual army of volunteers who will risk their lives just to monitor the developments on the ground. Management means billions, and that's an undeniable fact of political life.

Now, this is what bugs the Liberals since, at this point, they do not have the full support of the traditional political financiers, since some of these funders are obviously in other camps, especially in the Nacionalista party.

This is what Noynoy's Liberals and other contenders fear---the time when the Nacionalista Party unleashes their vaunted resources. The Nacionalista, as you know, is perceived to be the "strongest party" with the "biggest and strongest network", because of Senator Manny Villar.

Villar, as you know, is determined to win. He has charted his political career even way back when he ran as Congressman of Las Pinas. He planned this to happen. Villar has his billions and a wide network of supporters, coming from his real estate companies. Villar can actually spend five billion pesos and it will not even affect him in the short-run (long-time yung effects yan).

If Villar gives 1 billion pesos to Mindanao (that is the rumour), that is a game changer. If Villar allots 1.5 billion pesos to Luzon and 1.2 billion pesos in the Visayas and probably half a billion pesos worth of advertising and propaganda materials, he might, just might, clinch it.

The only stumbling block for Villar's ascendancy to the highest post is simply a public uprising.

Are you asking what will happen to Joseph Estrada's PMP and UNO? Their situation is worse than the Liberals since (1) their ranks have been decimated with defections and (2) they don't have the entire Tsinoy community financial support. There are even talks that Estrada might, just might, throw in the towel prior to the elections.

How about Gibo Teodoro's campaign? What will happen to him?

Gibo will only get as far as 14% or 16% of the votes, not enough for a win. Despite the much-publicized strength of the Lakas-KAMPI CMD party, it would take Gibo, more than 5 billion pesos to win, which, under current circumstances, the administration will be hard-pressed to get.

Remember that the Arroyo administration is now operating under a re-enacted budget; meaning, Arroyo will only get or expect to get the same amount of monies from the budget to support Gibo.

ANC Presidentiable Forum

Last night gave us a sampling of how things will turn out in 2010. Five presidentiables, led by a former top banker and economist Senator Mar Roxas, a lawyer turned Senator Dick Gordon, a young turk by the name of Chiz Escudero, a priest turned traditional politician by the name of Governor Ed Panlilio and a defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro took turns in giving some piece of their mind in slumbook questions. It was not a debate, as some, including this corner, surmise, but more like a gradiose press conference, with a bell as timer to boot.

And it also was no forum, for if it was, surely, you'll see panelists interacting with the audience. Nothing of that sort here. It was more of an ANC event presenting probable candidates to the presidency and giving the public a sampling of what they'll do if they emerge a winner in 2010.

Our options are these:

Choose:

1. A judicious economist
2. A militarist haciendero
3. A young liar
4. An activist priest
5. A self-absorbed do-gooder

At best, what we can expect are these probable scenarios:

1. If we elect Mar Roxas as our president, he'll be an intelligent and judicious president. He'll probe the excesses and corruption of this administration and seek justice. He'll be an intelligent president. He'll not pander to anybody. He'll be his own man, with Korina just in one corner, giving him support.

He'll surely improve the economy. His grasp of what's happening in the economy, both internal and external, is impressive. He'll prosecute erring government officials and file cases against private companies in the business of fooling the people.

2. Should we elect Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro as president, we will definitely see landlords laughing all the way to the bank, turning their agrarian lands into tourism areas and selling them to foreigners. He'll be a tough president, talking peace with rebels while preparing for war. Teodoro will also change the way we see politics---from a presidential bicameral to a presidential unicameral---an obvious tendency to a militarist, totalitarian setup.

Mrs. Arroyo and her devil gang in barongs will obviously laugh their way to retirement. She'll go scot-free to Portugal or Brazil along with billions of pesos while Teodoro and his militarist herd transform the country into a totalitarian plutocracy.

3. If Chiz Escudero wins the presidency, we will surely have a populist government. Grafters and operators will have a field day while the poor will receive crumbs from the national government. Danding Conjuangco will keep his billions while other NPC stalwarts will ran rough-shod of government institutions. Nothing will change. The promise of youth will definitely be wasted in that administration.

Based on his pronouncements, Chiz Escudero would probably be a populist president. The way he pandered to the public, giving us cutsy and motherhood statements, and wary of really revealing his real message, shows you one thing---Chiz is, at best, an improvement of his father, former Marcos associate Salvador Escudero.

First thing, Chiz reiterated that he came from the poor--an obvious lie since everybody knows how rich the Escuderos are in Quezon and in Bicol. Chiz failed in answering Tina Monsod-Palma's first question as truthfully as possible.

Chiz says he does'nt have money---bull. Everyone knows Danding Cojuangco's Nationalist People's Coalition is backing him up. Since his run as Congressman, the NPC has been behind him eversince.

This early, Chiz has showed his true colors. "So young, yet so corrupt," to paraphrase Manila mayor Arsenio Lacson when he referred to a young Manila councilor who later ran as senator. For Chiz, " so young, yet a liar". How can you trust somebody who even lies about his roots?

4. If we elect Ed Panlilio, we'll surely become a theocracy. This early, Manong Ed already gave a series of sermons, good for the soul, bad for the body. In the two hours spent in that forum, Ed Panlilio the priest, failed in two fronts---raise our hopes and at least contribute to the body of literature about change. Nothing substantial was gleaned from Panlilio's sermons. Those are all motherhood statements. Even a first semester political science student could mouth those sorts of things.

5. If Senator Richard Gordon wins the presidency, we will surely see an administration peopled with volunteers while the money allotted to government goes to Big Business. Gordon will also pander to the public, giving them crumbs while allowing the elite to run rough-shod of every piece of change

Pampanga Governor Panlilio goes back to priesthood and Pimentel's Pseudo Oppositionists

It's definitely official and you read it first here---Pampanga governor Ed Panlilio is going back to the priestly class by 2010. Yes, Panlilio who earlier intimated his desire to run for the presidency, is taking a back seat and for good reason--he and Isabela Governor Padaca's negotiations with the Liberal Party fell thru, leaving them in the lurch. Without a strong political machinery, Panlilio and Padaca's chances of clinching the presidential and vice presidential or even the senatorial spots are close to nil. The Liberal Party has Mar Roxas already and they're just looking for his running mate.

Likewise, a new political movement has announced the candidacy of Senator Richard Gordon. As i write this, there are five (5) confirmed candidates for the presidency in 2010:

1. Richard Gordon, being backed up by the Bagumbayan Political Party
2. Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party
3. Manny Villar of the Nacionalista Party
4. Either Chiz Escudero or Gilbert Teodoro of the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC)
5. Joseph "Erap" Estrada of the JEEP NI ERAP/Partido ng Masang Pilipino or PMP.

It seems that there are at least three clear groups claiming to be "opposition"---Roxas, Villar and Erap. Gordon's movement is not technically "opposition" but can be described as "neutral" (neither here nor there, I suppose) likened to that of Manoling Morato's party when he ran in 1998.

If Loren decides to throw her hat unto the ring, she might find herself forming another party since her political party (NPC) is full of presidential aspirants. She may have to settle for the vice presidency.

Possible mergers

Now, the possibility of the Lakas and Kampi merger is about " 80 percent complete", according to Lakas-CMD spokesman Zubiri. Mrs. Arroyo is currently engaged in talks with Presidential Political Adviser Gabriel Claudio.

A Lakas-CMD-Kampi merger would surely field in Vice President Noli de Castro as presidential bet and possibly, Teodoro. Now, if the opposition has a problem, the administration also has a very clear dilemma.

The field of candidates is far and wide, which includes Teodoro, Escudero, De Castro and Loren Legarda. A coalition would pit these four personalities against each other, leading to expected fractures and fissures in organizational unity.

If the administration would field a De Castro-Teodoro tandem, the NPC may have to contend with an Escudero-Legarda one, which, in all honesty, is quite formidable compared with a De Castro-Teodoro. If these tandems run against each other, they will split the administration vote.

Escudero-Legarda may have to position themselves as "opposition" to avoid such a scenario which in this case, would surely clash with the "United" opposition led by Erap. Erap would probably enter into a compromise with the administration, since, he will never be allowed to run for another term. This compromise would surely result to the "opposition" anointing a Manny Villar as their bet. Running as Villar's vice president would be either Jinggoy Estrada or JV Estrada, proxies of the former president. A Villar-Estrada tandem is a sure winner.

Possible tandems

For Lakas-KAMPI: De Castro-Teodoro
For NPC: Escudero-Legarda
For UNO: Villar-Estrada
For himself: Gordon and ?
For Liberal Party: Roxas and Padaca (?)

If these tandems or configurations push thru, then, it's a sure win for the Opposition, the one being led by Erap. Why?

Surely, De Castro-Teodoro will not be eating up the constituency of a Villar-Estrada since it is proven by recent elections that Estrada has his own strong mass constituency. The "Erap" magic is still there and the administration knows it. It would definitely be the mass following of Gordon who'll eat up the constituency of De Castro-Teodoro or can even be vice versa.

Gordon would surely eat up the administration areas, diluting support for De Castro-Teodoro.

The Roxas group would surely eat up the Escudero-Legarda constituency (or can also be the other way around) which is about 12-25% of the electorate. Remember that both groups appeal to the intelligentsia and some segments of the C-D class; yet not as wide as that of Erap.

So, the only one with the solid constituency and possibly the eventual winner in 2010 would definitely have to be the one being run and controlled by Erap.

Now, the question---is there any other force equal or similar with Erap's? The answer is none. Even if Ping Lacson tries his hand at challenging the Erap group, he will find it very difficult since the people favor Erap more than Lacson. There is no chance for Lacson to even eat up Erap's constituency since Lacson does not have a solid grassroots organization to speak of.

So, the clear winner in this case is Erap's group.

Teodoro--RP's New Obama?

Barack Obama is now the official Democratic presidential candidate, besting White America's finest, Hillary Clinton. This is phenomenal considering that, four years ago, Obama was a relative unknown. What's the secret of Obama's campaign?

First, Obama's handlers avoided the tendency of traditional politics by giving the campaign some "inspiring" taglines. That's genius. Most Americans are depressed due to the high costs of food and fuel. They need someone who'll inspire them with the vibrancy of youth and new ideas. Obama represented that. He was packaged as the Black version of JFK (John F. Kennedy), armed with wit and a serious mien. His words are always emotion-driven. You'll see and hear his inspiring words on traditional and new media.

That campaign was based on lessons in political history. In US history, men of such character emerge whenever America encounters extreme depression, such as what's happening now. Western societies need men of substance whenever they face tremendous socio-economic challenges. Obama filled that void.

Now, can we produce our own Obama? Yes. We already did.

In the 2004 elections, a veritable unknown in the person of Senator Antonio Trillianes IV emerged as one of the top senatorial winners. He did not campaign. His handlers used the internet as his launching pad. He did not use any traditional method of campaigning, just a few posters and stickers here and there. However, the electorate heard of him through traditional media, what with his digs at Gloria. The people loved it and voted for him, a vote which some political analysts say is a vote of anger against the prevailing dispensation.

However, is it possible for Trillianes to campaign for the presidency using non-traditional tactics? That's possible. With more than 13 million Filipinos going online daily, that's a huge constituency. The internet is the most cost-effective tool in launching any brand or product or even electoral campaigns.

There's a catch though. Trillianes is a realist and would probably think twice before dipping his fingers in the presidential pool. if Trillianes is not interested, then, who could possibly be his alternate?

I'll give my Singdollars to anybody who'll oppose Gilbert Teodoro, our defense secretary. Of all the candidates out there, Teodoro is the singular person who can probably inspire us and rouse us from mediocracy and apathy.

Teodoro is young, has a vision for the country and has that electrifying personality. He's one of the most hard-working members of Gloria's mafia gang. Reason why people in the civil society hesitate to go full-blast against Gloria is the fact that some well-meaning people continue to work their asses off and that includes Teodoro. Teodoro is a stark contrast to the likes of Agriculture secretary Arthur Yap or Energy secretary Reyes, who are publicity-hungry without concrete accomplishments. Teodoro exemplifies an Obama and has the potential of getting the people's nod come election time.

I believe that early campaigners such as Loren, Mar, Cheez, Villar and Noli will eventually neutralize themselves. They will turn irrelevant, leading the way for Teodoro to shine.

If the same tactics employed by Trillianes in getting the senate post be applied to Teodoro, there's a strong chance for him to win. Some people think that he does not have the physical strength to go on a national campaign since he has asthma or some respiratory ailment. To hell with it. Teodoro can always sit in his chair and ponder on solutions to national issues while his campaigners dominate the discussion sphere thru traditional and new media. You'll be surprised at the results.