Who will clinch the presidency in 2010? Part II

Imagine a scenario where power goes out in major cities and some municipalities in metropolitan areas during the counting period. Imagine a scenario where armed groups destroy counting machines in some far-flung areas of the archipelago. Impossible? In Philippine politics nothing is impossible.

What is a political certainty is this---if administration candidate Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro wins in the cleanest of all elections, he will definitely not assume power. He will not be able to swore himself in as president because no one will believe it and definitely, most of his political opponents will surely cry foul. When that happens, expect either two results: (1) Mrs. Arroyo calls for martial rule or (2) groups oust Mrs. Arroyo in a successful revolt and calls for a repeat of the presidential elections.

An automated elections, I remember what Senator Chiz Escudero said some months ago, is not an assurance that the entire democratic exercise will be clean and honest. The elections will only be as safe, as honest and as clean as what we expect it to be, if those behind those counting machines, are honest and are not susceptible to corruption. Machines will just count. Men are the ones inputting data into the machine.

Everyone knows that there are only two (2) ways to compromize an IT-based integrative system: hacking the software and physical attacks. The Comelec just hired an IT firm who will ensure the integrity of the source codes. That's fine. The question is---when will they install those source codes? Obviously, they will do it weeks prior to the elections. It is that crucial time when cheaters will definitely act. Thru collusion with election officers, these cheaters can replace these source codes with their own. If election cheaters procure or secure for themselves the technical specs of these source codes, they can very well, replace them even a day or two prior to the counting.

Now, should that be entirely impossible to do, the next riskier thing to do is physically harm the system through sabotage. This entails a bigger expense since it would need the cooperation of security agencies and election officials.

Many fear that cheaters will definitely do just that in selected far-flung areas where security is thin. To be able to influence the elections in a major way, these cheaters have to compromise not just a dozen, but at least 15% of election areas and if you look at the data of the PNP, this reflects at least 45% of their list of election hot-spots.

Definitely, this elections will surely go the way of a violent one, because election cheaters will definitely employ tactics to ensure that their paid clients win. 

Now, in the event that the elections loses credibility, then, the one who will definitely win or clinch the presidency, will be the one ready to deploy his army of supporters and launch a civil disobedience campaign. That one would most certainly be the candidate who:

1. Successfully convinced the public that he is the best man to beat but
2. lost due to massive administration-initiated cheating

Why do I think that this is sure to happen?

Because no candidate will get a major slice of the electorate votes. No one. Come May 2010, everything stabilizes and every candidate is statistically given an equal chance of winning. Come May 10, no ratings or even star power would matter in the polling precincts. What would matter would be the preparations of these candidates prior to the voting and counting phases.

In a seven-cornered fight such as this one (Aquino-Villar-Estrada-Teodoro-Villanueva-Gordon-Delos Reyes), just one of these candidates cry "foul" or "I was cheated!" would spark public outrage. This will surely lead to a revolution of some sorts.

This is a very serious security matter. Every candidate right now is being supported by at least one PMA class and this could turn into a franatical war between and among military classes and a serious shouting match among various elite groups who already threw their support behind differing political groups.

Wherever you look at it, this elections would surely be explosive.

For example, everyone will surely express disbelief if Teodoro wins EVEN IN THE CLEANEST OF ALL ELECTIONS. Everyone thinks that Teodoro's liability is his association with Gloria and as early as now, the impression is, he will surely not win.

Now, what if the stakes just turn suddenly in favor of Teodoro and he wins, what now? Surely, the Aquino, the Villar and even the Villanueva camps will cry "fraud" and that would start a revolution against Arroyo. This will set the process of revolution which will only stop when Noynoy Aquino assumes power.

Whatever happens, Noynoy Aquino will definitely be the next Philippine president--whether there is a clean or a tainted electoral exercise. Why? Because he has the full crew of civil society members under his political party.

What happens to Erap? If Noynoy assumes the presidency, Estrada will recognize it. How about Villar? Will Villar contest Noynoy's leadership in that critical stage? No.

Surely, Villar's numbers will be as close as Noynoy's. A struggle between the two parties will happen but this will eventually result to a compromise.

Now, someone will definitely contest my analysis and say that, sure, these groups will oppose a Teodoro win and cry foul, but their efforts will be frustrated. Look at what happened in 1992? Miriam defensor-Santiago opposed FVR's win but FVR still got the presidency.

1992 is totally different because FVR managed to calm the frayed nerves of other political parties. Miriam is not exactly your "good version" of a rabble rouser. Miriam is different from Noynoy. If Noynoy says there was cheating (even if there is but it just will influence a small fraction of the presidential results), the people will definitely believe him and will support him.

Net---Gilbert Teodoro will surely lose in this elections even if he wins by a cleanest of all exercises because of the perception that his victory will be perceived as tainted and manipulated by the administration. Even if Teodoro manages to squeak in a margin of one million votes over, say Noynoy or Villar, there will still be public outrage due to accusations of fraud.

The only expected outcome of the May 20, 2010 elections is a clean toss-up between two major political parties---Noynoy Aquino's Liberal and Manny Villar's Nacionalista. If Noynoy wins in the most slim of margins, that is still okey since this will just be contested in the electoral tribunals. If Estrada wins, and his margin is not that big over say Noynoy's or Villar's, that will set the motion for FVR supporters to move for destabilization. The public does not expect Gordon or JC delos Reyes to win or even Eddie Villanueva. If they, however, squeak in a win, this will shock the country but will not be enough to mobilize masses of people for a revolt.

Yet, again, as I said, if Teodoro wins, expect a different kind of EDSA, probably the bloodiest of all. It would take a miracle to calm everything down.