Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Drilon is next Senate President: will be creating History as 3 time Senate President

Jose Camano contests my earlier posts regarding Noynoy as "majority" president. In politics, when we say "majority", we simply means fifty percent plus one. That's "majority". Not to be entirely technical about it, when I say "majority", I simply mean nearly majority. And getting 40 plus percent for me, is "majority" simply because he got most of the votes than his rivals.

Noynoy Aquino's numbers is even better than Erap's 37% last 1998. And he was considered elected through a "majority". So there, enough of Mr. Camano. Maybe he's desirous to get a majority decision from the Supreme Court to reverse an earlier decision dismissing him from the bar.

Anyway, early indications point that the Liberal party, the party with the winning standard bearer, stands to lose in both Houses of Congress. Only four Liberals will make it in the Senate---former Senate president Frank Drilon (the comebacking big man sa senado), Ralph Recto, Teofisto Guingona and/or Risa Hontiveros and Serge Osmena. Hontiveros is in 14th place, a tad higher than Joey de Venecia's. A miracle is needed for Hontiveros to be included in the final Senate slate.

Look at the list of new Senators: based on PPCRV results as of 5:15 am, May 13, 2010:
  1. Bong Revilla, Ramon Jr. - 17,303,512 (Lakas-KAMPI)---close Arroyo ally
  2. Estrada, Jinggoy - 16,923,007 (PMP/UNO)---oppositionist
  3. Defensor Santiago, Miriam - 15,473,883 (NP/PRP)---close Arroyo ally
  4. Drilon, Franklin - 14,179,561 (LP)---Aquino block of the LP
  5. Enrile, Juan Ponce - 13,992,593 (PMP/UNO)--oppositionist
  6. Cayetano, Pilar Juliana - 12,245,640 (NP)--close Villar clone, err, ally
  7. Marcos, Ferdinand Jr. - 11,785,333 (NP/KBL)---oppositionist
  8. Recto, Ralph - 11,074,245 (LP)---former close Arroyo ally but closer still to Villar
  9. Sotto, Vicente III - 10,620,224 (NPC/NP)--former close Arroyo ally
  10. Osmena, Sergio - 10,409,943 (LP)---oppositionist; open-minded; independent
  11. Lapid, Manuel - 9,760,497 (LAKAS-KAMPI)---votes based on orders
  12. Guingona, Teofisto III - 9,212,023 (LP)--former NP and could shift to NP later
  13. Hontiveros-Baraquel, Ana Theresia - 8,185,058 (LP)---oppositionist
  14. Biazon, Rozzano Rufino - 7,723,857 (LP)---independent-minded
  15. De Venecia, Jose III - 7,456,531(PMP-UNO)---independent-minded/oppositionist
Is it possible for the 13th, 14th and even the 15th slots to become members of the Senate? I think yes. Consider.

There are only ten (10) remaining Senators today, to wit: Angara, Arroyo, Aquino, Escudero, Honasan, Lacson, Legarda,  Pangilinan, Trillianes and Villar. One slot remained vacant.

Now, Aquino has to resign from his post if he is proclaimed as the 15th president of the Republic of the Philippines. If Aquino resigns, then, there is another vacancy. So, that vacancy could be either Hontiveros or Biazon or whoever gets the 13th slot.

Now, on the one (1) vacant slot which was unfilled since 2007. Will the Senate or the Supreme Court resolve this by allowing the 14th slot to be filled up this coming elections? Possibly. If not, then, we will still have 23 senators serving in the 15th Congress.

Let's look at the new composition of the 15th Congress: is there truth to the rumour that Villar will get the Senate presidency? Consider this.

  1. ANGARA, EDGARDO (2013)=Laban/close Villar ally
  2. ARROYO, JOKER (2013)=independent but votes in admin block/Villar ally
  3. CAYETANO, ALAN PETER (2013)=NP, Villar ally
  4. CAYETANO, PIA (2016)=NP, Villar ally
  5. ESCUDERO, FRANCIS (2013)=NPC, independent
  6. ESTRADA, JINGGOY (2016)=PMP-UNO, anti-Villar: formerly Villar
  7. ENRILE, JUAN PONCE (2016)=PMP-UNO, anti-Villar
  8. HONASAN, GREGORIO (2013)=PMP-UNOanti-Villar
  9. LACSON, PANFILO (2013)=independent/ anti-Villar
  10. LAPID, LITO (2016)=LAKAS/KAMPImight vote in favor of Villar
  11. LEGARDA, LOREN (2013)=NP/NPC might vote in favor of Villar
  12. PANGILINAN, FRANCIS (2013)=LP anti-Villar
  13. REVILLA, BONG (2016)= LAKAS/KAMPI might vote in favor of Villar
  14. TRILLIANES IV, ANTONIO (2013)=independent but might vote against Villar
  15. VILLAR, MANUEL (2013)--NP
  16. MARCOS, BONGBONG (new)=NP/KBL pro-Villar
  17. RECTO, RALPH (new)=LP formerly Wednesday club member with Villar but might vote against
  18. DRILON, FRANKLIN=LP anti-Villar
  19. OSMENA, SERGE=LP anti-Villar/independent
  20. DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, MIRIAM=PRP/NP/anti-Villar (or might change mind)
  21. SOTTO, VICENTE= PRP/NP pro-Villar
  22. GUINGONA, TEOFISTO=LP anti-Villar
  23. ? HONTIVEROS OR BIAZON=LP anti-Villar
  24. VACANT
There will be six (6) Liberal party members in the new Senate, and seven (7) NP members, and two (2) Lakas-KAMPI members. PMP-UNO members will actually be three (3) Senators and the rest are "independents' or belong to "minority parties".
It seems that Villar will not get it because he only has ten (10) confirmed pro-Villar colleagues and the rest are simply anti-Villar. It will not be in the best interest of Villar if either Hontiveros or Biazon comes in since these candidates are obviously against him, especially Hontiveros who filed a graft case against him.
Now, who will be the next Senate president? If all indications are right, the next Senate president should be FRANKLIN DRILON, a very close ally of the soon to be elected President Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III.
If Drilon successfully gets elected as Senate president, that will surely be very interesting because it will split the Congress into two (2) very powerful blocks: a Lower House dominated by Lakas-KAMPI/NP coalition members and a Upper House (Senate) dominated by Aquino allies.
A Drilon Senate presidency will prevent the sudden shift of the political/governing system from presidential to parliamentary. Drilon will be Aquino's strongest defender in the Senate. This will prevent the possible plan to dilute or make a diminution of the Office of the Presdient with the shift to parliamentary system.
Or, if a compromise is struck between and among contending elite groups, we will have a parliamentary federal system with a strong President and a ceremonial (?) Prime Minister like in Russia.
With the election of Aquino, and the possible election to the Senate presidency of Drilon, charter change, as envisioned by pro-Arroyo mafia allies will actually be frustrated.