Exodus of Liberal party members on! Major party splitting

Several members of the Liberal party, and that includes a group of veteran politicians from Luzon and the Visayas are planning to bolt from their party. Reason---they disagree with the things happening within their party which they say, threaten their own political survival.

Consider the very words of their presidential candidate Mar Roxas--their bet wants nothing more than extend the very term of President Aquino. Mar Roxas' wish is both cryptic and borders on the illegal. Cryptic because it seems that Roxas himself is throwing in the towel and is admitting before the public that he is not the guy worthy enough to replace Pnoy. And second, everyone knows that the term extension of the president is something illegal and constitutional.

Seems that the Liberal party ranks are desperate already. The chance of their bet snapping up a win in 2016 is as remote as the North pole. Mar Roxas' rating is a disappointment. For one, it is not moving even a notch despite what his handlers are doing. It is neither dropping or rising, meaning, it has reached its maximum and therefore, has plateau-ed. This is the most dangerous thing to happen for a political candidate--when your numbers have reached a dead end.

Surely, in a span of a year, and your numbers have not moved an inch, that is an obvious sign already that the candidate does not have a Chinaman's chance of winning the elections.

And if you have a losing candidate with you, it affects your political standing in your territory. Instead of benefitting from the blessing of the so-called top honcho, the act is even detrimental to your own campaign. Who will invite a losing bet to endorse a local candidate? That rubs off.

That explains why several LP members are floating another configuration--either a Kiko-Poe or a Binay-Mar. There are even suggestions of a Drilon candidacy, which, again, is an unwinnable possibility.

Are we seeing a major split in a major political organisation sometime soon? Yep, you guessed right.

Drilon is next Senate President: will be creating History as 3 time Senate President

Jose Camano contests my earlier posts regarding Noynoy as "majority" president. In politics, when we say "majority", we simply means fifty percent plus one. That's "majority". Not to be entirely technical about it, when I say "majority", I simply mean nearly majority. And getting 40 plus percent for me, is "majority" simply because he got most of the votes than his rivals.

Noynoy Aquino's numbers is even better than Erap's 37% last 1998. And he was considered elected through a "majority". So there, enough of Mr. Camano. Maybe he's desirous to get a majority decision from the Supreme Court to reverse an earlier decision dismissing him from the bar.

Anyway, early indications point that the Liberal party, the party with the winning standard bearer, stands to lose in both Houses of Congress. Only four Liberals will make it in the Senate---former Senate president Frank Drilon (the comebacking big man sa senado), Ralph Recto, Teofisto Guingona and/or Risa Hontiveros and Serge Osmena. Hontiveros is in 14th place, a tad higher than Joey de Venecia's. A miracle is needed for Hontiveros to be included in the final Senate slate.

Look at the list of new Senators: based on PPCRV results as of 5:15 am, May 13, 2010:

1. Bong Revilla, Ramon Jr. - 17,303,512 (Lakas-KAMPI)---close Arroyo ally
2. Estrada, Jinggoy - 16,923,007 (PMP/UNO)---oppositionist
3. Defensor Santiago, Miriam - 15,473,883 (NP/PRP)---close Arroyo ally
4. Drilon, Franklin - 14,179,561 (LP)---Aquino block of the LP
5. Enrile, Juan Ponce - 13,992,593 (PMP/UNO)--oppositionist
6. Cayetano, Pilar Juliana - 12,245,640 (NP)--close Villar clone, err, ally
7. Marcos, Ferdinand Jr. - 11,785,333 (NP/KBL)---oppositionist
8. Recto, Ralph - 11,074,245 (LP)---former close Arroyo ally but closer still to Villar
9. Sotto, Vicente III - 10,620,224 (NPC/NP)--former close Arroyo ally
10. Osmena, Sergio - 10,409,943 (LP)---oppositionist; open-minded; independent
11. Lapid, Manuel - 9,760,497 (LAKAS-KAMPI)---votes based on orders
12. Guingona, Teofisto III - 9,212,023 (LP)--former NP and could shift to NP later
13. Hontiveros-Baraquel, Ana Theresia - 8,185,058 (LP)---oppositionist
14. Biazon, Rozzano Rufino - 7,723,857 (LP)---independent-minded

15. De Venecia, Jose III - 7,456,531(PMP-UNO)---independent-minded/oppositionist

Is it possible for the 13th, 14th and even the 15th slots to become members of the Senate? I think yes. Consider.

There are only ten (10) remaining Senators today, to wit: Angara, Arroyo, Aquino, Escudero, Honasan, Lacson, Legarda,  Pangilinan, Trillianes and Villar. One slot remained vacant.

Now, Aquino has to resign from his post if he is proclaimed as the 15th president of the Republic of the Philippines. If Aquino resigns, then, there is another vacancy. So, that vacancy could be either Hontiveros or Biazon or whoever gets the 13th slot.

Now, on the one (1) vacant slot which was unfilled since 2007. Will the Senate or the Supreme Court resolve this by allowing the 14th slot to be filled up this coming elections? Possibly. If not, then, we will still have 23 senators serving in the 15th Congress.

Let's look at the new composition of the 15th Congress: is there truth to the rumour that Villar will get the Senate presidency? Consider this.

1. ANGARA, EDGARDO (2013)=Laban/close Villar ally
2. ARROYO, JOKER (2013)=independent but votes in admin block/Villar ally
3. CAYETANO, ALAN PETER (2013)=NP, Villar ally
4. CAYETANO, PIA (2016)=NP, Villar ally
5. ESCUDERO, FRANCIS (2013)=NPC, independent
6. ESTRADA, JINGGOY (2016)=PMP-UNO, anti-Villar: formerly Villar
7. ENRILE, JUAN PONCE (2016)=PMP-UNO, anti-Villar
8. HONASAN, GREGORIO (2013)=PMP-UNOanti-Villar
9. LACSON, PANFILO (2013)=independent/ anti-Villar
10. LAPID, LITO (2016)=LAKAS/KAMPImight vote in favor of Villar
11. LEGARDA, LOREN (2013)=NP/NPC might vote in favor of Villar
12. PANGILINAN, FRANCIS (2013)=LP anti-Villar
13. REVILLA, BONG (2016)= LAKAS/KAMPI might vote in favor of Villar
14. TRILLIANES IV, ANTONIO (2013)=independent but might vote against Villar
15. VILLAR, MANUEL (2013)--NP
16. MARCOS, BONGBONG (new)=NP/KBL pro-Villar
17. RECTO, RALPH (new)=LP formerly Wednesday club member with Villar but might vote against
18. DRILON, FRANKLIN=LP anti-Villar
19. OSMENA, SERGE=LP anti-Villar/independent
20. DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, MIRIAM=PRP/NP/anti-Villar (or might change mind)
21. SOTTO, VICENTE= PRP/NP pro-Villar
22. GUINGONA, TEOFISTO=LP anti-Villar
23. ? HONTIVEROS OR BIAZON=LP anti-Villar

24. VACANT

There will be six (6) Liberal party members in the new Senate, and seven (7) NP members, and two (2) Lakas-KAMPI members. PMP-UNO members will actually be three (3) Senators and the rest are "independents' or belong to "minority parties".

It seems that Villar will not get it because he only has ten (10) confirmed pro-Villar colleagues and the rest are simply anti-Villar. It will not be in the best interest of Villar if either Hontiveros or Biazon comes in since these candidates are obviously against him, especially Hontiveros who filed a graft case against him.

Now, who will be the next Senate president? If all indications are right, the next Senate president should be FRANKLIN DRILON, a very close ally of the soon to be elected President Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III.

If Drilon successfully gets elected as Senate president, that will surely be very interesting because it will split the Congress into two (2) very powerful blocks: a Lower House dominated by Lakas-KAMPI/NP coalition members and a Upper House (Senate) dominated by Aquino allies.

A Drilon Senate presidency will prevent the sudden shift of the political/governing system from presidential to parliamentary. Drilon will be Aquino's strongest defender in the Senate. This will prevent the possible plan to dilute or make a diminution of the Office of the Presdient with the shift to parliamentary system.

Or, if a compromise is struck between and among contending elite groups, we will have a parliamentary federal system with a strong President and a ceremonial (?) Prime Minister like in Russia.

With the election of Aquino, and the possible election to the Senate presidency of Drilon, charter change, as envisioned by pro-Arroyo mafia allies will actually be frustrated.

Liberal Party intramurals---intra-party frat war?

Is this Liberal Party intramurals a sample of an intra-party frat war? It seems like it since most of the persons behind Mar Roxas inner circle are members of the UP-based Alpha Sigma fraternity (the same frat of Chiz Escudero). Some quarters say that Alpha Sigma (the fraternity of former Arroyo Chief of Staff Mike Arroyo) controls most of the decision-making inside Mar Roxas' organization and this has isolated other members of the Liberal Party who are Alpha Phi Betans (APB). Liberal Party chair Franklin Drilon is a Batch 66 member of the Sigma Rho fraternity, the same frat of Liberal Party chairman emeritus, Jovito Salonga. (Kiko Pangilinan, by the way, is an Upsilon Sigma Phi member).

Most of the Liberal Party members, especially those belonging to the Kabataang Liberal, are members of either the APB or the Alpha Sigma.

So, it's not surprising that a member of the APB, Atty. Alex Lacson, now heads a citizen's movement calling for NoyNoy Aquino to run as president. Lacson is an active member of this fraternity and used to be a Councilor of the UP Student Council during the term of Mike Defensor.

I agree with some observations that Mar Roxas right now is in a very difficult situation since there is now a conscious effort to dislodge him as the party's standard bearer. Nothing wrong with that, that's the workings of democracy.

But, is this an indication that another frat wants to break the "monopoly" of the Alpha Sigma in the Liberal Party?

Its OFFICIAL--MAR ROXAS is LIBERAL PARTY STANDARD BEARER

In an interview today, Liberal Party Chairman and former Senate President Franklin Drilon revealed that their party already nominated Senator Mar Roxas as their official standard bearer for the 2010 elections.

Drilon made the announcement in an interview by Ted Failon and Ina Reformina over at DZMM, 530 khz.

Drilon said the National Committee of the Liberal Party already decided that Mar Roxas will bear the party colors come the elections and that should, Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III decides to run, Drilon said that he'll be running as vice president.

Drilon also lambasted Gary Olivar, one of Mrs. Arroyo's spokesperson, for meddling in party affairs. Olivar is one of Mike Defensor's, a former Liberal, dogs.

So, there's no more dispute then. Some of the names which the Liberal Party is fielding includes:

1. Franklin Drilon
2. Ruffy Biazon
3. Risa Hontiveros
4. Leah Navarro
5. Cory Quirino
6. Neri Acosta