Sunday, February 22, 2015

Post-Aquino scenarios: Five Possible Outcomes

These are possible post-Aquino scenarios being floated about by certain groups:

1. President Aquino succumbs to pressure and decides to unilaterally suspend peace talks and the BBL. He assumes or admits responsibility and subjects himself to a truth commission. This commission will investigate and provide their results months from now by which, it will all be election period. Aquino survives 2015 but largely and politically marginalised.

2. Aquino admits responsibility and tenders his resignation. Upon operation of law, Vice president Jejomar Binay assumes power. Groups inside Malacanan do their own manoeverings to preserve their powers or at least sustain their power bases. Binay's group influences election and VP wins election in 2016. Continuity is assured, with Binay in power for 7.5 years, similar to what happened to Arroyo.

3. People power breaks out and Aquino is pressured to resign. A transition council led by his uncle, Peping Cojuangco assumes power. Power transitions from a Cojuangco to another Cojuangco. Differing groups opposed to Peping moves to re-install power thru another transition council, mostly led by pro-"Tuwid na daan" groups or groups once closely aligned with Aquino. Aquino retires, council manages affairs of the state to prepare for 2016 elections.

4. People power breaks out and Aquino succumbs to public pressure and decides to suspend peace talks and assume responsibility over Mamasapano massacre. Truth commission established and Aquino submits. Preparations for 2016 elections are thus left to a transition council composed of different groups close to the Aquinos. Aquino is made to retire. 2016 elections elect new president.

5. People power breaks out and Aquino hardens his stand. Military component comes out to announce withdrawal of support. Aquino further hardens his stand and declares state of emergency. Situation worsens. Aquino declares martial rule and arrests perpetuators. Effect is Aquino clique retains power and does what they want to do, even dictate the pace of the 2016 elections. Aquino anointed LP candidate wins election on dictated terms. People militate against electoral fraud and armed component once more comes out. Clashes ensue.

These scenarios are likely to happen over the next week or at least two weeks. The window of opportunity is only two weeks. If nothing happens within these next two weeks, this issue will dissipate and will only become an electoral issue. When March or April comes, it will be all about the 2016 elections, as groups prepare for it. There will be no more time for popular yet unconstitutional actions because the people will no longer entertain such ideas. The only possible outbreak of such is May 2016 if and when the election turns violent and fraudulent. This is one option which will make us politically damaged under a state of perpetual destabilisation.