The Boston Marathon Bombings, the Tsarnaev brothers and a new breed of anti-US terrorist

Though the Boston police have already declared the Boston Marathon bombing case as "closed", questions still linger in the minds of those who follow this gruesome incident. What prompted a 19 year old and his older brother to undertake what authorities consider as a sophisticated act of terrorism? 

Many people who know Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev, the 19 year old arrested by police yesterday, described him as a bright, aspiring, young kid who dreams for success in his life in America. His older brother who was killed by authorities a day before, Tamerlan, was equally described by some as just a regular guy, who even trained as a boxer for his school. Both came from Chechnya, a country wracked by sectarian violence. Both young men left Chechnya in pursuit of a dream in America.

Now, one is dead and the other one will be facing the courts soon to answer for one of the deadliest attacks in America since 9/11. 

Their aunt and their father have accused authorities of setting the brothers up. We will never know the truth. Telling pieces of evidence point to these two as the ones who killed a security officer in MIT in Boston and threw pipe bombs at police officers before they were finally caught, one killed and the other, wounded yet alive. 

Several photos have circulated in the internet pointing to a conspiracy. Some of these photos show "contractor types" being in the crime scene before and after the bombing, leading to some to conclude that the brothers might have been framed or probably belong to a bigger group. Or probably another group staged the bombing and the Tsarnaev brothers were set up.

This is somewhat problematic in every which way you look at it. 

For one, if one believes in what police says, then, the profile of a terrorist in America has become domestic. Gone are the bearded, Thawb- garbed men, threatening to throw bombs at American soil. Looking at the pictures of the Tsarnaev brothers, and you'll find ordinary, young, intelligent men now threatening to throw bombs at the very country which accepted them and fed them.

This is problematic in the sense that every single one in America right now, is a potential threat to the very state they created several centuries ago. What is so unfortunate in this is it is testing the very concept, the very pillar by which America stood for for centuries--the pillar of all men being equal.

Prior to this incident, there were subsequent acts of terrorism staged by Americans themselves unto their fellow Americans, ordinary citizens turned shooters who gun down innocents without adequate reason. There must be something wrong with the very system that once bred the finest inventors and innovators the world has ever known. 

Some would probably blame the American government for this. American interventionist moves in other countries have been blamed before for contributing to the worsening perception of other races against America. Middle Easterners mostly curse Americans for their government's continued aggression against Palestinians and other nationalities. Not all Asians praise America for its interventionist role in the Spratlys island dispute and even in the Korean peninsula affairs. 

What had happened in America in recent years is probably due to the increasing social tension brought by a worsening economy. People's hopes are being dashed as millions upon millions suffer from extreme poverty. 

I cannot say that this applies to the Tsarnaev brothers. They came to America with one dream--to leave their war-stricken country and be a success in America. They were living the American dream. They were not in poverty. What caused them to harm the very country which took them in, fed them, and cared for them all these time? What prompted them and caused them to leave a comfortable life in exchange for a life on the lam?

Worse--how many people feel the same way and are, themselves, potential bomb makers, and human bombs? 

This incident will change America forever, and would prompt people to probably look further deeper and study the American system and why it is now breeding people with a lot of resentment with the way things are being managed by their government. 

US troops fired upon civilians after Jolo Blast?

An improvised explosive device (or some believe to be a grenade) exploded at the Jolo wharf today, while US troops were reportedly unloading equipment from a boat. Major Ramon David Hontiveros, spokesman for the Philippine military's Western Mindanao command said the blast occurred late Monday.

Hontiveros denied reports that the blast was caused by a powerful EID since no bomb fragments were found. The explosion happened near a military detachment adjacent to a building where stalls are selling electronic appliances and textiles. No one was hurt in the explosion.

What was worrisome were some accounts alleging that US troops reportedly fired upon civilians shortly after the bomb went off. Automatic gunfire hit a nearby mosque and small buildings. Civilian sources say, US troops indeed opened fire and bullet holes are still seen in the area.

This was denied by the military. The US embassy has yet to release an official statement regarding the incident.

US troops have been stationed in Jolo for many years now. They have a base inside the Jolo Military camp, but is off-limits to Filipino soldiers.

The AFP has since denied US troop involvement in the fight against the renegade terror group, the Abu Sayyaf. However, the Philippine defense department admitted that US troops have provided valuable intelligence information about the whereabouts of Abu Sayyaf Group members.

The Philippine Constitution prohibits the interference of foreign troops in local interacine or insurgency wars in its territory.

The State of the Nation under Arroyo

Over at the New Philippine Revolution, a new online news magazine blog, there is a comprehensive report on the State of the Nation Under Arroyo. This report assesses the Arroyo administration using the lenses of other think tanks. It is a unbiased assessment from the time she seized political power from former president Joseph Estrada to the time she addresses the nation and reports her achievements.

Support http://www.newphilrevolution.com. And the new Filipino user generated news blog http://www.filipinonewsnetwork.com.

Manila archbiship Gaudencio Rosales today urged Arroyo to tell the truth. It's best, says Rosales, that Arroyo reveals the unblemished truth on the state of the nation so that everyone especially the next administration, would know what to do next.

But, will Arroyo heed the church call and show the Filipinos the true state of the nation? I doubt it, especially now that Mrs. Arroyo would face US president Barack Obama. Surely, that would spoil the broth, so to speak, since, as what the Washington Times said, echoing the previous statement by NPR, that the visit would just be a political subterfuge by Arroyo. Even the Americans know that it was a bad judgment call by the White House in inviting Arroyo. If they're so concerned with terrorism in Asia, the White House should have invited Indonesia instead.

Barack to meet Arroyo at White House. Why???

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Mindanao bombs meant for Gen. Sabban?

Are all those bomb attacks meant to force the resignation of Southern Command General Juancho Sabban?

A source says that there's a plan to force Sabban to resign. Sabban, a member of PMA Class 1978, is considered not a loyal subject to Herr Excellency Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Some says he's a threat to other members of his class for his previous association with the RAM.

Sabban has been previously meted a punishment for engaging in a word war with Senator Richard Gordon. Gordon is a close administration ally. Sabban was forced to relinquish his post to a subordinate.

With all these bombs going off in his turf, there are confirmed reports that people within the AFP are asking for his head. Why? Why do these people want Sabban out?

Aside from the strategic goal of placing a more trusted Arroyo man out there, getting Sabban out of a very sensitive and large command is actually tactical. In an event where Arroyo allies move for a self-coup, they want eveything covered. They don't want a trouble maker to spoil the broth.

Sabban, as some sources say, is considered the black sheep of his class for having an independent streak. He's not close to Mrs. Arroyo. He's widely perceived as a professional soldier.

Fuelling the flames of confusion and chaos in Mindanao is more than enough reason for the government to move in and dislodge Sabban from his post there.

Bloody Thanksgiving

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) warned US security agencies to be on full alert for a possible Al Qaeda attack against New York. This follows a massive terrorist assault in India's biggest city Mumbai, killing more than a 100 people and injuring 400 others. As I'm writing this, Indian police are still in pitched street battles against the terrorists. Two hotels, the Taj Mahal and the Oneji have been attacked. An undetermined number of hostages are being held by the terrorists who identified themselves as the "Deccan Mujaheedins". However, Indian Intelligence points to another fundamentalist group which allegedly linked with the Deccans to create this very chaotic situation.

President-elect Barack Obama has condemned the attack. The entire United Nations also condemned it, saying that the terror attack was a cowardly one staged by fundamentalists. US intelligence agencies say, this could very be the handiwork of Al Qaeda, the dreaded group of Osama Bin Laden. An anti-terror expert told CNN that the Mumbai attacks could just be a big diversionary tactic, aimed at pulling Pakistan into a war with India, thereby insulating Osama Bin Laden's group which is hiding in the border hinderlands of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

A few weeks before the Mumbai attacks, a video of Sawahiri was released lambasting US president-elect Barack Obama. That video should have been analyzed by security agencies since it could be a sign, a signal for aligned fundamentalist groups in India to start their terror campaign.

These attacks show how lax India's intelligence forces are. Even the head of the anti-terror intelligence group and his close-ins were killed by the terrorists. Possibly, there could be external help since the attacks bear the trademark of Al Qaeda. The operation was highly sophisticated and show how well financed these groups are.

Now, the question remains--what's the next targets? Aside from New York, which traditionally remains the target of fundamentalist hatred, there are indications that Al Qaeda-affiliated groups are silently organizing and in the last stages of planning their attacks. There is a big possibility that Asian countries frequented by Westerners for the holidays will be the next targets. Will there be an attack in Bali Indonesia? Possible. Will militants attack Australia? They could. Is Singapore safe from militant attacks? If New York was attacked by Al Qaeda, what would spare this tiny island from these frenzied groups? How about China? Is China a target? Hongkong, Macau and even Beijing are possible targets.

What am I saying here? Governments all over the world, especially in the Asia-Pacific region (where security and intelligence capabilities are weaker than European ones) should take extra precautions and alert themselves for possible terrorist attacks. These fundamentalist groups are determined to strike allies of US prior to the swearing in of Barack Obama. Terrorists think that Obama does not have the mettle of a Clinton or a John McCain, so they think that they should intensify both their low-intensity and high-intensity conflict plans to lure Obama into a trap and make him commit an error. It was good that Obama retained Gates as Pentagon head. The US cannot afford a new head for the Pentagon at this point since very serious security threats plague the world today.

The Real Costs of the Mindanao War

Last September 7, 2008, the Philippine Air Force reportedly bombed a village in Maguindanao, killing civilians, including a pregnant woman. The AFP and the PAF tried to deny that there was indiscriminate bombing. The official AFP statement: these civilians were caught in a crossfire.
Yeah, they were. These civilians were in the air, caught between a flying attack Bronco and MILF rebels firing in the air. Look at these photos sent by a friend. See whose telling the truth.

How about this pregnant woman? What do you think killed her?                             

Was it bullets sprayed by soldiers or those of the Bangsamoro rebels?

Or shrapnels from a bomb which the Air Force dropped there? You'll be the judge. As far as the medico-legal report says, her throat was smashed when bomb shrapnels hit her. 

What killed these kids? Are they just shrapnels or bullets? Were they caught in a crossfire as the AFP says they were? Or they were casualties in a stupid war sparked by a nincompoop of a president? 

Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro says the AFP still needs at least 80 billion to sustain the war against the Bangsamoro rebels. I ask Mr. Teodoro---how much more bombs will you authorize to drop on these communities in Mindanao? How many more rounds of ammo will you send flying to the direction of innocent civilians? How many mortar rounds would it possibly need for you and the entire government to force these Bangsamoro rebels to their knees? And how much more money do you need to rebuild these lives lost because of this insane war?

When will you and these Bangsamoro rebels stop?

History has shown that government spent billions and billions of pesos waging this decades-old war and it's still there. One thing I learned from history school---one bullet fired by both sides, additional month of war.

Barack Obama and the Mindanao problem

The Internet is a-buzz of news about Senator Barack Obama's announcement of his running mate. Speculations abound on who'll be his anointed one. This early, some say, whoever Obama chose as his running mate may very well be the next vice president given the high ratings the Obama campaign has been getting lately. Analysts see Obama has just clutched the presidency.

What I'm interested is how Obama would conduct the foreign affairs of America. Early indications point to a full withdrawal of troops in 2011, which Iraqi officials say should be a full withdrawal of troops. Obama has said time and again that US troops will disengage themselves from Iraq, since it is costing the American public billions just to maintain US presence in Iraq. 

However, Obama has yet to address the increasing problems of terrorism in the Asia-Pacific region. We presume that Obama will continue the existing US policy against terror in the region, yet, up to what extent? Yes, anti-terror campaigns will definitely continue under either an Obama or a McCain presidency, but who'll be more vigilant and more vigorous in chasing after these Islamic terrorists? Given the record of Obama, will he be implementing a "softer" approach to this global menace?

Likewise, flashpoints are beginning to emerge in Georgia and possibly in Mindanao Philippines should fighting escalate between Philippine forces and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The theater of war is shifting, from the desert to the fertile plains of Southeast Asia. Should the Philippine government mishandles the situation in Mindanao, Obama will have his hands full engaging terrorism in other fronts or quite possibly, in multivariate areas. 

So, the US as represented by Ambassador Kristie Kenney should do everything in her power to prevent this conflict in Mindanao from turning into a regional one. I suspect that this war could eventually be the one serious legacy of the Bush administration which Obama would find hard finding a lasting solution. 

On the Sulu Question, Part 2

After the controversial death of ASG leader Khadaffy Janjalani, Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo ordered the AFP to step up more attacks and obliterate the ASG from the face of the earth. It was in 2005 when she said that. Now, sixty soldiers dead and many more sent to dangerous missions there, the Abu Sayyaf Group continues to terrorize the Tausugs and even inspired young Muslims there to take up arms for an unworthy cause.

The ASG continues to remain a menace and a disgrace to the Bangsamoro struggle for independence.

No amount of pride and braggadocio can defeat this group of reckless thugs. Arroyo should be counseled by her numerous advisers not to shoot herself in the mouth again. Despite her vaunted influence over military generals, groups such as the ASG continues to humiliate her before the eyes of the world.

Arroyo remains the weakest link in the regional fight against terrorism. In fact, Arroyo is the best recruiter of destabilizers and terrorists due to her weak leadership, both in the economic and political fronts.

With poverty slowly engulfing most of Mindanao, the prospect of an outbreak of war and violence remains a strong possibility. As I've said in previous posts, regional terrorists could exploit this. A resumption of hostilities between Bangsamoros and Philippine security agencies in Sulu, Basilan, Tawi-Tawi and other impoverished provinces in Mindanao could break the tenuous peace in that part of the Asia-Pacific region.

There's a very strong possibility that Mindanao could turn into the region's security flashpoint. The JI is just waiting to exploit this. A war could offset efforts towards Mindanao peace and development.

Worst, terror groups are starting to indoctrinate and exploit the young minds of Tausugs in the area. Paupers both in body and soul, these are potential insurgents being trained for more kidnappings, more assassinations and worst, more bombings.

I call upon the US State Department to intervene and assist the Philippine government in resolving this potential crisis. Let's prevent this from spilling over the rest of the country.

Stupid Script

Look how stupid and idiotic our Philippine National Police is. They should improve their scripts.

Read the article below. It says that the police got an info about a terror plot to destabilize the rallies to be conducted by anti-Arroyo groups. PNP Spokesperson Nick Bartolome (a good friend, but nonetheless, sorry, I will not tolerate stupidity) said that the recovered document written in Arabic tells of a terror plot which includes rally dates etal. It also, says Bartolome, contains sensitive info as the schedule of the president.

Wow. That sounds pretty impressive. I bet that whoever wrote that document must have pretty good connections in the palace since even the routes and schedules of the very head of state (though a bogus one) were allegedly stated there. You know sir Bartolome, you must be very very concerned at this point and even the Presidential Security Group (PSG). Why, imagine, a state secret such as the president's schedule is now being leaked out of Malacanang for the benefit of terrorists? Why, that calls for not only the attention of local security agencies and intel groups; it calls for the help of the CIA, the M1 and all the rest of the intel community. There's a mole right at the palace! A thorough probe should be called by the PNP!

Calling for the State Department! Calling for the Institute of Strategic Studies in Singapore! We have a very serious problem in the Philippines and we need help! Terrorists have infiltrated the palace!

More than this though--that document, which Bartolome said was recovered from Luneta park, contained even dates of rallies to be launched by the militant anti-Arroyo. A double wow!!

That document is like something out of the movie "Back to the Future". Or it may be part of the lost writings of Nostradamus. Why? Well, that document was able to predict when and where these rally leaders intend to launch those mass actions. Having been an activist myself, dates of rallies are arbitrarily set by rally leaders. If Bartolome and the rest of the PNP are really intel experts, they know this for a fact! You can't predict what will happen in the future right? And all these things are compartamentalized. So, whoever says that one can actually predict a rally date is something out of the extraordinary.

So, I'm impressed, totally.

There's a Filipino saying that if you have something to defend, defend it at the Luneta. Well, Bartolome and his organization should probably tell it to the Marines there, protecting Rizal.

Mr. Bartolome, please don't waste your illustrious career trying to hide the flaws of this administration. You're a decorated and honorable officer. I know you since Erap's time to be honest and easy to work with. Don't be stupid to harp a very stupid script. People are not idiots. They know that you're just being used and its unfair to you.

Concern on the global fight against terror

I am very concerned about the anti-terror campaign here in the Philippines. Because of this political crisis and the continuing level of mistrust and distrust by the people about this government, it is affecting the way we fight these terrorists. Nobody believes that this government is doing good in the global terror fight. It is therefore, to the best interest of the Philippines to allow the fall of this regime because this government is like the boy who cried wolf. They are using the terror bogey to oppress legitimate political opposition which is not good. Its stupidity and very dangerous.

Terror threat ‘real’, rallies are possible targets - PNP
03/07/2008 | 01:17 PM
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MANILA, Philippines - The Philippine National Police (PNP) on Friday said protest rallies in the metropolis are also target of the suspected foreign terrorists who were nabbed in the country in the last few weeks.

PNP spokesman Sr. Supt. Nicanor Bartolome told radio dzMM that the schedule of rallies were also found in a recovered document. The documents, which were recovered from a Manila park, was earlier described to contain only information on the routes taken by President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and surveillance review of certain foreign embassies.

"Pati yung schedule ng ating Pangulo ay naapektuhan because of this information. At nakalagay din dun yung ibang mga listahan ng mga embahada at pati yung mga schedule ng ibang rallies ay nandun din. Kaya ipinapalagay ng ating mga operatiba na merong mga plano talaga itong mga grupo na ito na maghasik nga ng kaguluhan," Bartolome said.

At the same time, Bartolome said there were actually two foreign nationals who were apprehended, and not only one as earlier disclosed by PNP chief Dir. Gen. Avelino Razon, Jr.

"Na-i-announce na nga ito nung February 29 pa (na) may dalawang foreign nationals na nakuha. At na-link nga ito dun sa previous plans as stated dun sa mga dokumentong nakuha prior to their arrest," he said.

Bartolome, however, refused to give further details, including the nationality of the two foreigners, citing ongoing follow up operations.

Fending off allegations from militant groups and the opposition that the supposed "terror threat" was merely a scare tactic, Bartolome said: "Hindi ito isang form ng pananakot or warning. Ang sa amin ay ginagamit din namin ito upang sa ganun ay mapaganda pa namin yung preparasyon namin, yung mga security arrangements ma-improve pa namin, madagdagan at nang sa ganun ay lahat magkaroon ng seguridad."

Various groups have conducted and still plan to hold more mass demonstrations against the government after ZTE witness Rodolfo Lozada, Jr came out and linked First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo in the controversial $329-million national broadband network project. - GMANews.TV

Church to lead the search for Truth

"Their public confession[s] may be considered a providential event that may yet save our country from being hostage to scandalous and shady government deals that offend the common good and serve only personal, family and group interests,"--Archbishop Oscar Lagdameo, President, Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines(CBCP)

In a monumental act, the CBCP finally took a stand against the prevailing order. Archbishop Lagdameo yesterday articulated what the Church wanted to say for so long--the truth shall set us free. So now, the struggle against Arroyo has assumed a higher and deeper stage--that of struggling for the Truth.

If you look at it, however, it is not the Truth that would set us free. It is the struggle for Justice. We, the People now know how corrupt our system has become. We have realized that this corrupt and decrepit system is being perpetuated by those in power. And we already know that these people are just motivated by self-gain.

Now, we await the pronouncements of other religious groups, such as the Iglesia Ni Cristo, the influential El Shaddai and the protestant groups. They must also take the stand and announce their disgusts against Arroyo. Not doing so would mean complicity to these acts of the Palace mafia. Taking a silent stance would mean they accede to what is happening.

Former president Cory Aquino has just visited Lozada, signalling the formal start of active engagement against Arroyo. The president is hurt, says her close aide Merly Poblador who, by the way, is also involved in this controversy. While all of these are going on, we find Lakas slowly disintegrating, with Lakas stalwart and Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita encouraging former Speaker Jose de Venecia to relinquish his post as Lakas president to QC Mayor Sonny Belmonte. JDV's meeting with Erap, Ermita says, is a sign that JDV has totally burned his bridges with Malacanang. What it means though is JDV is now a persona non grata at the palace.

The only one left not protesting the callousness of the palace is former president and Lakas founder Fidel V. Ramos. I am sure that FVR will not tolerate this latest caper of the palace. Surely, FVR is not in cahoots with FG's group. However, it is perplexing to say the least, why FVR remains silent to all of these. There are some explanations:

1. FVR is assessing the entire situation. He knows that Lozada's appearance may provide the missing element in moves to oust Arroyo. Being the head of the CIA here in Asia, FVR is in the best position to assess the current standing of Arroyo vis-a-vis this war. What are the elements that would probably lead FVR to conclude that, indeed, Arroyo is in a losing or lost proposition:

a. Military support---This is crucial in any move against the palace. How many elements in the higher echelon of the military does Arroyo have and how many does not support her. Obviously, the scale right now is even, to say the least. Generals are divided. Arroyo does not have the entire loyalty of the military.

Esperon is a crucial element in all of these. His participation is very important to this struggle against immorality and corruption. If Esperon wants to save his ass or retire honorably, he must take a definitive stand against the creeping dictatorship and announce to the Filipino People his disgusts over this corruption. If Esperon remains silent, he is, in effect, condoning this blatant immorality and should be ousted from his post too.

b. Civilian support--It is quite obvious that Arroyo has lost a considerable segment of civil society, which includes the Church. This announcement of CBCP is a signal to Arroyo to take some definitive actions to appease the church. However, this I think is too late in the game. Whatever Arroyo would do now would be USELESS because its the responsibility of the church to assume a stand against immorality.

So now, there is no way out of this mess. As what happened last year, the only saving grace for Arroyo is DIVERSION. She will definitely order a special operations team to create another scenario of destabilization. What would be this:

1. Another bombing which this administration will attribute to terrorism. This is an effective diversionary tactic which they did last year with the Glorietta and Congress bombing.

2. An explosive battle in Mindanao, against using Jolo as a pretext.

3. A coup d'etat launched by Arroyo's own force. This is the most logical tactic. Arroyo will preempt these moves with her own moves. Either she'll use the Magdalo for this, or use another force.

SO ITS GOD SAVE THE QUEEN once more.

Spooks

Its not Halloween but we are continuously being fed with creepy reports. And these reports are on high gear. Just this morning, AFP Chief of Staff Hermogenes Esperon is at it again, telling the nation that another destabilization attempt is imminent. He said that they are monitoring some unusual movements on the ground. And those movements are coming from the camp of detained Senator Trillianes.

Tsk,tsk,tsk. Esperon is spooking us again. Indeed there are unusual movements on the ground, Sir. Every minute, little quakes happen and its not coming from Trillianes. Its coming from those mines. Or those volcanoes sir. Or whenever you go to the john sir.

Major Spooks

Whatever Esperon says right now, people will think that the reason why he's saying these things is to force GMA to renew his term of service. Hey, February is just around the corner. If he still wants to be relevant, then, he's sure to do something foolish before February 9; otherwise, he'll be allowed to fade away, just like Calderon. Oh, by the way, Calderon was recycled. Yes, he's now the chief jailer.

Before Esperon, there's National unsecurity adviser Gonzales who told the world how vulnerable the Philippines is against terrorism. That's why two senior military officials from the US state department visited him. Maybe he knows something we don't, says the Americans. Well boys, Gonzales is as clueless as you are Generals. You don't know it but Gonzales is just pulling your hairy legs, sirs.

Another spook, this time, In Justice Secretary Gonzales. This septuagenarian always imagine things in his mind. He's as paranoid as Hitler. He's imagining things and infecting us with his foolishness.


Paranoid as hell

I can understand these people. They're thieves. So, they're afraid to finally face the People's Justice.

All I know is this---these groups are trying to consolidate their forces. Esperon is out to do a palace coup. And he does'nt want the other group to beat him to it.

The Security Situation in the Philippines:2008

In the midst of reports on a coup and the threat of terrorism, the US State Department has invited Philippine secretary Teodoro for a visit to Washington. The invitation came in the heels of the breakdown of talks between the MILF-GRP, possible rise of terror activities, the increased activities of the CPP-NPA-NDF and the purported shot-down of a Philippine trainer plane in the Spratlys. These events are alarming to say the least, but for Philippine defense officials, these events are considered "manageable".

Obviously, the Philippines is an important component of the US homeland and external defense plan. However, reports of a shot-down is quite alarming, especially to the US. The Spratlys area is a critical flash point in the past and such an incident, if it ever happened, expose the weakness of the Philippines in responding to such matters. It shows how weak this country is against foreign threats.

One of the interest of the US is the establishment or building of a forward base in Mindanao, which, according to intel reports, have been established already. This forward base aims to counter any possible Chinese attacks in the mainland. For the US, China remains as a major and serious threat to US national security. Despite its reversion to capitalism, China is still controlled by the Communist Party which, traditionally, has been waging an ideological war against the US.

Likewise, Mindanao continues to harbor terror groups, like the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). Reports on Dulmatin going in and out of Philippine territory shows how fragile Philippine immigration defenses are. Remember that the Al-Queda just issued a threatening statement against the US, vowing to conduct a more serious one, more lethal that 9/11. There are indications that the Philippines is being used by JI and other regional terrorists as a training ground and these are evident with the increase of bombing activities in the country.

With such serious breaches of both external and internal security of the Philippines, its quite prudent for the US to invite our defense secretary over there. A weakening US economy needs a stringent and more effective defense plan to protect US interests globally. Without the active participation of the Philippines, US interests in Southeast Asia remains vulnerable and weak.

State-sponsored terrorism to increase due to cha-cha

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39 Years of Revolutionary Struggle

Tomorrow, December 26, the Communist Party of the Philippines will be celebrating its 39th anniversary. CPP Chairman Armando Liwanag said that the revolutionary movement, the longest insurgency in the world, next to the Shining Path, continues to gain strength. The AFP issued a statement which said that the CPP-NPA-NDF has lost considerable troop strength from a high of 7,000 to a little above the 6,000. This, the AFP says, owes to the current administration's continued armed campaign to decimate the CPP-NPA-NDF by 2010.

Bold words, bad actions.

Obviously, the AFP cannot really kill the CPP-NPA-NDF. First, the AFP continues to have a very low trust rating with the people due to allegations of human rights violations. Second, the AFP is suffering setbacks after setbacks in the battlefield. The Marines, the creme de la creme of the armed establishment suffers from low morale. The corps suffers from battle fatigue and morale due to continued defeats against the Muslim mujaheddins in Sulu, Basilan and some parts of Mindanao. And third, in other theaters of war in the Philippine archipelago, the Army has suffered numerous deaths due to ambuscades and attacks on its camps.

The Reality

The reality is, the CPP-NPA-NDF will continue to exist even beyond Arroyo. For as long as the AFP remains under the weak leadership of an illegitimate leader, there will be major defeats in the field. Soldiers will die by the hundreds and more by the wayside. This is because the CPP-NPA-NDF and other insurgent groups continue to innovate. Note the message by Joma:

Sison said the New People’s Army, the armed wing of the CPP, is "gaining strength and advancing."

"It is increasing its platoon-size and company-size offensives and is looking forward to the building of mobile and more effective regional centers of gravity and to the development of relatively stable base areas on the basis of the guerrilla fronts," Sison said in a statement. (Philippine Daily Inquirer, 25 December 2007)

Note this statement--the CPP-NPA-NDF is building mobile and more effective regional centers of gravity--meaning it is shifting from a regularized, standardized army setup to a more attuned guerilla setup. What it means is that the CPP-NPA-NDF will try to do some insurrectionary activities which punctuate its actions during the Marcos dictatorship. Expect more assassinations, bombings and other urban insurrectionary actions against the Establishment. This is indicative or an indirect admission that the revolutionary struggle should involve more urban attacks than being concentrated in the countrysides.

More about security issues for 2008 for the Philippines in my next blog.

Its all in the bomb

National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales told DZMM this morning that for them to determine who among their enemies (and their enemies are many) did this Glorietta blast. He's right in saying that they should analyze the bomb. Yes, that's the way to do it. By analyzing the bomb which killed nine people and injured hundreds, they need to determine what kind of bomb material was used. As a veteran police beat reporter, I came across such investigations before and this administration needs the expertise of the Federal Bureau of Investigation of the United States to do this job properly.

Let's look at some scenarios, shall we?

If the bomb is C4, which reports say, could be the material used, then, it would be easy for forensic investigators to trace where it came from and how it ended in the hands of the bomb makers. This early, I am in the opinion that a dirty tricks group within the military did this blast. Let me support this by facts:

1. The manufacture and distribution of C4 is limited only to the military. Such a blast like what happened in Glorietta could only come from C4. HOWEVER, I saw a video on YouTube that the US has already developed a bomb material that a pinhead could blast a watermelon to smithereens. The video grab of ABS-CBN inside ground zero yesterday shows a fairly large amount of smoke emanating from the blast site. This US invention does not produce a large amount of smoke. So, it could not have been this kind of bomb material. It could possibly be C4.

2. If this is C4 and there's a timing device, then, police investigators could have immediately located it already and studied it for possible signatures. By studying it, they would determine who made it. If the signature shows that the skill or knowledge of making it came from the AFP, then, it will further bolster the postulate that a military group was behind the blasts.

3. If there's a timing device, then the time is also important in determining who did it. Why was it set-off in the afternoon and not in the morning? Observe that the bomb took off at the time when some bishops were having a press conference somewhere in Quezon City. Uncanny coincidence? If this was the handiwork of international terrorists, then, it could have happened anytime, but not EXACTLY during such a period of instability such as this. Don't tell me that these psychotics know when the bishops will be having their pressconferences? Don't tell me that they know exactly when groups will be having their open declaration of war against Arroyo?

Analyzing the bomb, the time it took off, and the antecedents show a fairly distinctive signature--it is a bomb intended for politics, not for international terrorism.

But, what if it was indeed the handiwork of terrorists?

Then, this blast is a denunciation of this administration. This shows how weak this administration is in combatting terrorism. It all the more justifies US intervention in the politics of this country.

I appeal to the international community to convince this administration to admit failure and immediately resign. The US and the Open Democracy alliance should intervene in this and save our country from these inept government officials. Our economy is on the right track and we can't afford to have a government like this. This administration continues to demonstrate weak leadership. It also shows a tendency to capitulate to any pressure group just to preserve itself. If this government just wants to extend its rule and create an environment of fear to justify a state of emergency, then, democratic forces should act NOW and move towards freedom. Tama na, sobra na. The state has turned into full militarization. It has turned into the country's biggest threat against democracy and the biggest idiot in the fight against terror.