Three Reasons Why China's defeat is certain in a Spratlys War

As a former Foreign Affairs Specialist in the CIRSS (Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies) of the Foreign Service Institute (FSI) of the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) handling China and the economic diplomacy desk, there are three (3) reasons why I believe that China's defeat is imminent in case it moves militarily against the Philippines in Scarborough Shoal.


One, China's naval fleet is not as modern as the United States or the Japanese Naval fleet. The Japanese Naval fleet is one of the most modern fleet in the region. In the event of a conflict in these parts, the Japanese forces will move not to defend the Philippines but to defend its interests in the region. The United States will surely mobilize its naval fleet in the Pacific, assisted by Japan and Singapore. So, in the event of a battle there, expect it to be inter-country one, not a bilateral war. It is harmful for Japanese interests to see China grow as a regional superpower. In case a naval war erupts in this side of the world, expect China to lose and lose heavily--both militarily and politically.


A war in the disputed islands will not lead even to a nuclear one. China will not be foolhardy to unleash its nuclear arsenal just for a path of rocky outgrowth in the middle of the Western Philippine sea. Neither will it be extremely foolish to attack Manila, the capital of the Philippines. Such actions will not happen because it is both a useless exercise at the same time, will merit international condemnation. 


Two, China is undergoing an internal power struggle, with the traditional Socialists winning over the reformists. This group within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) does not intend to spoil the economic gains the country has achieved over the last decade with a war that will not even bring them more prosperity, but only more expenses. The Scarborough Shoal issue is unlike Tibet. The place teems with international controversies over ownership. What is at stake here is a bully trying to get a piece of property from a peaceful neighbour, which, does not augur well in the eyes of the international community. 


A defeat in this side of the region will justify the ascension of a more conservative faction of the Chinese Communist Party who sees neo-imperialism as an unnecessary step towards the growth of a Socialist economy in China. Besides, these conservatives have a very strong solidarity bond with Filipino socialists. These conservatives will not risk this strong bond with a war that will not result to anything good for China. There is nothing to gain from moving military forces into an area of little consequence. Besides, if China really intends to exploit the area, it can do so thru bilateral or a multilateral agreement. 


Lastly, a disruption in the free flow of trade in the region will harm China's growing economy.  China's growth depends on stability. A disruptive war will surely affect China's economy particularly on the flow of foreign direct investments as well as portfolio investments. 


China knows this, that's why its "tough stance" is more of a public one, than anything. It is using the media for diplomacy and politics. 

The Neo-Red Menace Campaign of the AFP

Is there a silent Commie persecution going on right now? It seems like it. So, if you're a Communist sympathizer or you're just a plain and simple admirer of Karl Marx or Vladimir Lenin or someone heard you speak of the analects of Mao Tse Tung, you better watch your back. For there could be an agent behind your back, ready to pounce on you.

Are we back in the Cold war era where the mere mention of Socialism or Communism is a crime? Are we really back in that age when someone shouts "imperialism!" or " Mabuhay CPP-NPA-NDF!", he'll be hauled to jail immediately?

Blame General Dominquez book, " The Trinity of War" which is on its third edition. This almost Nazi-like book is to be blamed for the renewed paranoia of the military against anything red. This book spells out the new doctrine of the Armed Forces of the Philippines when treating Communism or its branches. The book actually encourages the destruction of legal and legitimate organizations which at least believes in the National Democratic agenda of the CPP-NPA-NDF, albeit, not openly declared. 

For all I know, the Anti-Subversion Law has been effectively repealed. Communism was considered de-criminalized in 1994, and whoever believes in Communism has the right to freely expressed it, however others hate it. Believing in something is an inherent and inviolable right. And being a Communist is one of them.

When a State authorizes the use of military or State power against those who merely believe in an ideology, it acts as a dictator or an authoritarian. And when a government transforms itself into a dictatorial or an authoritarian regime, it is the right of Peoples to militate against it. This is even recognized by the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the People.



As far as I know, even if you're a card-carrying member of the Communist Party of the Philippines, you'll not be arrested because it is not a crime anymore to be a member of the CPP-NPA-NDF or any other political party. 

It is a crime however, if you're a combatant or an armed member of the New People's Army. That's another story. 


Bearing arms against the government and declaring that you believe in the protracted people's war and you live in the mountains and subsist only with potatoes or camotes, of course, that will clearly put your life at extreme risk. There are two (2) things you must know: believing in something and acting on it.


If you believe in something and acted based on it, meaning, you actually rebelled, got your firearm and declared rebellion against the State, you are now, a declared enemy of the State. The State has the right to exercise its right for self-preservation. The State will kill you. The State has the right to arrest you, detain you and present you in court with charges of rebellion. If the civilian courts deemed you guilty, then, be ready to face the consequences of your actions.


Yet, if you just espouse Communism and you just propagandize, then, that is a right enshrined in the Constitution and you will not be arrested. 


In the case of the Morong 43, their arrests shows you the effects of a misunderstanding or a mis-appreciation or worst, a mis-interpretation of current reality. If you're a health worker and you believe in the National Democratic ideal, you are okey provided you don't mingle with the Communist rebels. If you don't live with the rebels, and just help the poor folks, then, you are not a combatant; hence, safe from prosecution.


Our soldiers should know the distinction. It should be very clear with them. 


Otherwise, people might suspect that, in their desperation to defeat their enemy, they'll commit the same mistakes as what they did during the Marcos years.

Advance the Cause of New Democracy

The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) is celebrating its 41st anniversary today. The statement issued by the CPP Central Committee-National Democratic Front (NDF)  says that within the next five years, the stage of the protracted people's war under the theoretical guidance of Marxism-Leninism-Mao Tse Tung would have reached strategic stalemate, from its current stage of strategic defensive. Meaning, with the expected increase of armed fronts from 120 to 180, the CPP hopes to achieve a practical, instead of a theoretical "levelling off" of its forces with the AFP.

It is so comforting to know that the CPP now acknowledges the concept of tactical "wave" offensives, a concept which I propounded late in 1991 in the University of the Philippines or what I described as MAO or Mass Advance Offensive. MAO contemplates the State as a living organism, with different cells (cells=cities, government units) working together to repulse the advancement of revolutionary impetus. The strategy therefore, is for revolutionaries to slowly penetrate these cells and cause it to implode upon the weight of tactical initiatives. This is faster than relying on battalion-size formations, since it requires the activation of city partisan units (cpus) which will be deployed with tactical objectives.

The reason why the revolution continues to age and enters a maturity state is it is being pressed down with inactivity, caused by the imposition of CC of shifting focus from political-military work to mainly building armed forces. The abandonment of political work in the Cory years is now bearing the organization down, since the instant shift from regularization of the NPA to the reinvigoration of pol-mil did not go as smoothly as what the CC thought then. Pol-Mil is very important in strengthening and growing revolutionary movements. It must go hand-in-hand in advancing the Cause of the Revolution.

Armando Liwanag recognized the error and has ordered its rectification sometime in 1997 and it should be noted that the new statement by the Party suggest an intensification of recruitment efforts directed at increasing the number of revolutionaries within the ranks of organizers in organizations. This is the right direction. However, aside from re-organizing and strengthening legal front organizations and real-time recruitment, the Party, in order to advance to the next higher state, should utilize newer tools, like the Internet, in spreading the correctness of the Marxist-Leninist-Mao Tse Tung line. As I read the statement of the Party, it continues to provide a correct analysis of the local and international situation and this should be aligned with the current revolutionary strategy. The analysis needs some refinements to resonate with people fed up with the system.

Dominance in the ideological sphere is what the Party needs in order to widen or enhance its party base. This is the real cause why Party influence waned in recent years.  It is not the theoretical line that is being debated upon---it is the correctness of the methodology to advance the revolution that is mainly disputed.

For example, the Party still insists that the current political economy of the Philippines is that of a "semi-feudal and semi-colonial" state. A re-analysis of the current pol-eco is necessary since it is not reflective of reality. Most cities and towns in this country have now entered a stage of "semi-industrialization" brought about by the infusion of capital from the city centers to the towns. There are more small and medium sized enterprises now, and more global brands entering or establishing business in provincial cities and towns. Yes, there are still agrarian-based economies around, mostly in areas where the Party dominates, but these areas are not the reflection of the current economic state. Accepting this shift would mean a change in the direction of the armed struggle.

An implied recognition of this can be gleaned from the Party statement which indicated that it is now growing partisan operative units in urban areas to cause "demoralization" among the enemy ranks. This is a correct tactic.  The re-activation of urban guerilla units is essential not just as a part of the overall revolutionary strategy but also as a sign that the Party is still alive and undertaking great initiatives along the line of the protracted people's war.

If the analysis now is that the State is weaker now than before, all the more relevant or significant is the deployment of such forces in the urban areas. A weak state is susceptible to small scale attacks, particularly assassination, neutralization of specific state industries through partisan work or just plain and simple symbolic attacks against key officials. The work of the ABB at the height of the Marcos regime caused the speedier downfall of the dictatorship.

It is important also for the Party to strengthen its ties with other revolutionary movements. The Party needs to "open itself up" to criticism and self-criticism to be able to hammer out a more correct line that is acceptable to all those working for a New Democracy. The dominance of the Marxist-Leninist-Mao Tse Tung line will actually be felt by other organizations through active debates, not in imposing it upon them. The lack or absence of debates is what caused the demoralization of some adherents to the cause. If the Party totally adheres to the very nature of a revolutionary organization, it must be able to open itself up, spur debates and discussions particularly on the direction of the PPW and "modernize" itself up. The bolder and more correct line should result from these discussions. The protractive nature of the struggle is a repudiation of the current strategy.

The Evolution of Contempt and the Genesis of High Horses

High Priest gives us a glimpse of how officials, especially those within the circles of this evil regime (i don't want to call it empire), think about governance. Quite simply, they think that they're the magistrates of old serving an otherwise evil kingdom. In this little country, those who think that way deserves more than derision; they deserve nothing less than a guillotine.

The last time I heard, we're still living in a democracy. Thoughts about how government is right and the citizenry always wrong harks back to the days of the medieval era, where Kings and Queens rule with wanton abandonment. Flushed with tributes and sometimes, claims of divinity, these Kings and Queens rule an otherwise ignorant mass of people. When the Intellectual Revolution came, and gave rise to new ideas, even raised questions on the legitimacy of the concept of monarchy, these royal families lost their "blue-bloodiness". They were exposed as flesh and bones. They saw how red their blood is when it started spurting from their heads.

And History always point to the defeat of those who think highly of themselves. Saddam Hussein was the last one to get it. A few decades back, we saw how democratic forces defeated Hitler and the struggle continues. Death is not the way to defeat these kinds. It is always a better paradigm that kills a harmful intellectual virus.

I don't need to point how shameful this administration is. We all read that in earlier posts. However, this regime has turned from shameful to unabashedly harmful, since, it is being populated now by fascists in barongs. It's already bad that this regime governs without the right direction; it is now equally appalling that pseudo-intellectuals like this so-called HighPriest who claims that he/she was elected as a King, walks the corridors of power.

Noteworthy also to note how the Arroyo administration is morphing into a hideous monster; that kind that attracts megalomaniacal flies, such as this High Priest of Smokes, who's sole duty is to obfuscate issues rather than answering them.

And it's always that way in this regime. Evidently, that's the unwritten code being strictly followed by those who serve the devil enfant. Gloria chose to be queen of this enchanted Kingdom, yet because of her weak leadership, it has allowed people within her to think of themselves as "mini mes",  and " surrogate kings" and "sheriffs of nottingham". 

High Priest is a manifestation of an intellectual vacuum in Malacanang's pecking order. And those who love democracy should not just shudder in their seats; they need to act to defeat these pseudo-intellectuals trying to justify what Malacanang intends to do--extend Gloria's term. Short of any legal justification, the minions of Gloria, like this High Priest of Smokes, are resorting to political and philosophical ideas to mask or hide though smoking mirrors, that naked and truest desire for the perpetuation of Gloria's power. 

There is no philosophical nor political ideals that would justify Gloria and her gang of misfits' continued governance. Be reminded that Gloria's rule started on a wrongful or tortuous premise in 2004. To lust for another ten years is not just gut-wrenching; it's the purest form of evil. 

However, evil as it is, it is equally shameful for people, like Filipinos, to let this happen. As what my good friend Trixie Angeles used to say, if you let an injustice go away without acting on it, you're as part of those who did it.

Defeat we will, those who pollute us with their fascist ideas. Fascism has no place in modern societies.

Arroyo government--China's Puppet Regime

In the next few years, Filipinos will be asking the Chinese for permission to mine their own mountains, permit to plant their own rice seedlings in their own fat soil and permissions to fish their own bangus in their own waters. You may think that I'm exaggerating. I'm not. Right now, as things stand, I am studying the executive agreements we entered with China and these deals are alarming to say the least.

A few weeks from now, Lakas Christian-Muslim democrats and Kampi stalwart Puno will be visiting China. One of the goals of the visit is to explore the possibility of a tieup of Lakas-Kampi with the Chinese Communist Party. I thought Arroyo is fighting the Filipino Communists? I thought there's a campaign to eradicate Communists in this country? What's all these?

Are we now telling the world that we want to be Communists? That we don't want alliances with the free world and those Christian democrats and we want to align ourselves with Mao's party? That the reason why Arroyo ousted JDV from Lakas is she has this malicious intention to become a member of the Chinese Communist Party?

Are we now selling democratic ideals in lieu of Communism? Is Arroyo telling us that (1) the reason why she wants to eradicate Joma is she wants to be the Philippine premier of the CCP version here? That this whole charade is just to make our country a puppet of China, a protectorate?

Well, well, well! Arroyo's really a very skilful politician! What Joma failed to achieve in almost 40 years, Arroyo just did in less than 10 years, what a revolutionary! Kahanga-hanga!

So now, we have effectively ousted the Americans as our foreign protector some 17 years ago. I never thought in my whole adult life that I'll be seeing them replaced by the Chinese.

Is it time to learn Mandarin?

Piece-meal sale of the Philippines

Chinese officials are here in the Philippines today to allegedly investigate on the issues surrounding the ZTE deal. However, I believe they are here not just for the ZTE deal, but also to pressure the Philippine government on other agreements, one of which, involves the Spratlys deal.

Congress was supposed to pass a bill effectively delineating the baselines that comprise Philippine territory. The august chamber was unable to pass the bill reportedly due to pressures coming from the Chinese. ABS-CBN released a copy of an alleged document titled, "Talking Points" which reportedly threatened the Philippine government of "adverse actions" should it proceed with its intention of defining the country's baselines. The Philippine government balked, which just shows you how weak we are as a nation-state.

I was researching on other agreements entered into by the Philippine government and was shocked to learn that there are similar agreements entered by Malacanang that even effectively surrendered Philippine patrimony over thousands of hectares of prime agricultural land just to satisfy the increasing demands for food of the Chinese. In the next few blogs, I will write these documents down and please read my friends. THIS IS VERY, VERY SERIOUS.These documents will prove that, indeed, the Arroyo administration has surrendered and even sold our patrimony over our very own lands to foreign interests.

So, we are now in a very delicate situation where our government is selling not only the Spratlys but also huge tracts of land for the benefit of the Chinese. I am not imputing ill motives on the part of our government officials in entering into these deals. What concerns me is the obvious secrecy that these agreements were made. Legal eagles know that these agreements violate the 1987 Constitution. Yet, they proceeded despite warnings from different sectors of society.

The brazenness of this administration and the obvious callousness in the name of multi-billion dollar loans disturbs me. I don't know what to say anymore. Indeed, these neo-Macabebes or traitors of this country populate that palace beside the murky waters of the Pasig. What is more disturbing is the fact that Filipinos show nonchalance, no protests are being seen in the streets.

My fellow Filipinos, we are being sold piecemeal by this administration and we are seemed to be unaffected by all of these! Could it be that we are so helpless or we feel powerless that we allow another invader in the name of commerce?

Where are the Patriots who vowed to protect the Filipino People? Where are the freedom fighters who profess love of the Motherland yet sulk in their seats, and look at the passing darkness that envelops the land? Where are you, fighters of a free Philippines?

Chinese invasion of RP

Palace factotums are quick to say that the ZTE scandal is a small matter. Why? Because the palace already killed it before it would even affect us. The DBM Secretary was quick to point out during the senate hearings last year that the project does not have any allocations in the budget and therefore, he says, can't be deemed to be detrimental to all of us.

Sure. The ZTE is technically, not in effect yet, therefore, there's no harm done. Yeah.

The secretary is telling us a half-truth. There's already harm done. First, hours of meetings spent by government officials talking with the ZTE and Chinese officials were all paid for by public money, including of course, that infamous trip by Arroyo to Boao. Second, a strained diplomatic relations with China could cost us millions of dollars' worth of lost investments. Third, the effects in the business community. How on earth would we now turn this despicable episode into a positive promotions for us when the palace itself is leading the corruption of our entire society?

Remember that the palace has just declared this project suspended, not entirely scrapped. At this point, government is still pursuing the NBN project under a new name and a new guise--the NGN project. ZTE's hands are still evident since these local telcos would still use ZTE equipment in running this project. Remember that telcos has admitted that they use ZTE telecommunications equipment in their operations. The reason why ZTE remains silent now is because they know that, when the dust settles, they will still gain from all of these. Government will still pay them multi-million dollars' worth for the technical equipment they will be supplying to the Philippine government.

Why is it that Filipinos should oppose ZTE's role in the NGN project

Like what Senator Honasan pointed out, why would this administration allow an enemy like China to control the levers of our government? Have DOTC Secretary Leandro Mendoza realize the security implications of this? Imagine, China knowing the access codes of our governmental system! What if the Spratlys issue suddenly thrust the Philippines into a war with China? How would government function effectively when all of its computer networks are controlled by Chinese, much less, members of the People's Liberation Army (PLA)? Sources say, the ZTE people are legitimate members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

I am, admittedly a Maoist. But my Maoism ends when my nationalism begins. I cannot, in my entire soul, hand over the security of this country to another foreign power, especially China whom I consider as a competitor in the global market. Yes, the old China provided us with the ideological direction years ago. But, this is NOT enough for us to agree that we hand over our sovereignty to them since China is also a claimant in the Spratlys.

The ZTE deal is just a front of China to finally and slowly conquer the Philippines. Why is the Philippines so strategic for the Chinese? One, our natural resources. We have an inexhaustible supply of coal and natural gas which China needs to satisfy its power requirements. Two, our market. We have at least 90 million consumers of cheap Chinese products. And three, our real estate. We have enormous tracts of land which the Chinese needs to expand its operations beyond its borders.

The Chinese can't do it in Malaysia nor Indonesia nor Singapore. For China, it needs another country which is susceptible enough like ours to expand its neo-capitalist operations.