Three Reasons Why China's defeat is certain in a Spratlys War

As a former Foreign Affairs Specialist in the CIRSS (Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies) of the Foreign Service Institute (FSI) of the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) handling China and the economic diplomacy desk, there are three (3) reasons why I believe that China's defeat is imminent in case it moves militarily against the Philippines in Scarborough Shoal.


One, China's naval fleet is not as modern as the United States or the Japanese Naval fleet. The Japanese Naval fleet is one of the most modern fleet in the region. In the event of a conflict in these parts, the Japanese forces will move not to defend the Philippines but to defend its interests in the region. The United States will surely mobilize its naval fleet in the Pacific, assisted by Japan and Singapore. So, in the event of a battle there, expect it to be inter-country one, not a bilateral war. It is harmful for Japanese interests to see China grow as a regional superpower. In case a naval war erupts in this side of the world, expect China to lose and lose heavily--both militarily and politically.


A war in the disputed islands will not lead even to a nuclear one. China will not be foolhardy to unleash its nuclear arsenal just for a path of rocky outgrowth in the middle of the Western Philippine sea. Neither will it be extremely foolish to attack Manila, the capital of the Philippines. Such actions will not happen because it is both a useless exercise at the same time, will merit international condemnation. 


Two, China is undergoing an internal power struggle, with the traditional Socialists winning over the reformists. This group within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) does not intend to spoil the economic gains the country has achieved over the last decade with a war that will not even bring them more prosperity, but only more expenses. The Scarborough Shoal issue is unlike Tibet. The place teems with international controversies over ownership. What is at stake here is a bully trying to get a piece of property from a peaceful neighbour, which, does not augur well in the eyes of the international community. 


A defeat in this side of the region will justify the ascension of a more conservative faction of the Chinese Communist Party who sees neo-imperialism as an unnecessary step towards the growth of a Socialist economy in China. Besides, these conservatives have a very strong solidarity bond with Filipino socialists. These conservatives will not risk this strong bond with a war that will not result to anything good for China. There is nothing to gain from moving military forces into an area of little consequence. Besides, if China really intends to exploit the area, it can do so thru bilateral or a multilateral agreement. 


Lastly, a disruption in the free flow of trade in the region will harm China's growing economy.  China's growth depends on stability. A disruptive war will surely affect China's economy particularly on the flow of foreign direct investments as well as portfolio investments. 


China knows this, that's why its "tough stance" is more of a public one, than anything. It is using the media for diplomacy and politics. 

Thousands of Filipinos to rally against China today

Thousands of Filipinos are expected to converge infront of the Chinese embassy today in what is billed as the biggest demonstration of Filipino views against Chinese actions in Scarborough Shoal. A Filipino-Chinese will lead the demonstration, which is being supported by several civil society groups.


I hate to say this, but this is wrong for three (3) reasons: one, this will add more tension to the already worsening Sino-RP relations. Both governments are now trying to resolve the impasse at Scarborough. Second, an involvement of citizens at this point will trigger numerous rallies throughout the world against Filipinos. Expect a retaliation from Sinos in countries where they dominate. Lastly, this will further embolden China to make unwise decisions in relation to Spratlys.


I just cannot blame my fellow Filipinos though. China continues to increase its military presence in the area. The tough stance taken by China in this issue endangered negotiations. The Philippines wants third party mediation which China rejected. 


China's tough stance is expected since it is now encountering internal problems. There is a power struggle between the old guards and the new leaders within the Communist Party. There are two sides in the struggle: one, the Socialist side which thinks of further continuing China's progress without sacrificing political power and the other side, which believes in further opening the economy to capital and strengthening China's leadership in the region. Whoever wins in the struggle will affect or dictate the policy direction regarding the Spratlys.


Really, it is not in the best interest of China to continue this tough stance. For one, the reason why it continues to flourish economically is the fact that everything in Asia is stable. This is the only region in the world where there is no serious political tensions. This explains why there is a free flow of trade within the Asia-Pacific region because foreign investments are safely tucked. There is no volatility in the markets.


A "small-scale" war as suggested by the Youth chapter of the Chinese Communist Party is uncalled for. A disruption of the peace in Spratlys will attract mischief throughout the region.  China is right now, miscalculating its chances in a "small-scale war".


Remember that we Filipinos are the best urban guerilla fighters in the world. If China attacks us, we will retaliate with terror. 


At best, China will only deploy ten percent of its million man army. In a hand-to-hand combat, the Chinese reds will surely suffer defeat from the Armed Forces of the Philippines. What the Chinese don't know is that we have a thousand Manny Pacquiaos in our midst. 


If China attacks our urban centers, remember there are thousands of Filipinos with small arms. Surely, urban guerilla tactics will be employed against the Chinese--both in areas where they attack us and in their homeland. 


Filipinos will surely hit China where it hurts the most--their industries. 


However, let it be said that this is not the way which we want this issue resolved. China's leaders must recognize that neo-imperialism is not the way to go. China must develop its Socialist economy towards Communism--the highest ideal. In Socialism, imperialism is not a necessary stage for development. 

China is no match to the Philippines in a Modern War: The Age of Small Armies

In this modern age, the bigger and more sophisticated a country becomes, the more vulnerable it is to fall in a modern war. The more modern a fleet or an army becomes, the more dependent it is in technology. To defeat a bigger and more modernized army by a small army, you need three things: First, create, build and maintain a tenacious group of black hats (hackers). Second, a dedicated team of professional revolutionaries who will conduct debilitating strikes against industries and critical infrastructures through armed attacks and third, a propaganda team ready to launch a massive disinformation campaign against the enemy. 


What am I saying here? I am describing what I call the "Doctrine of the Mean."


In nature, what is more lethal than a bacteria who can spread and cause massive extinctions. In the history of this world, there were as many as six massive extinctions which happened, two of them caused by bacteria. 


In warfare, the bigger powers, the United States and Russia have already experienced defeats caused by small armies. In the seventies, you have the Vietnamese People's Liberation Army who made a mockery of the sophisticated weaponry and tactics of the US military. After Vietnam, the US also suffered humiliating defeats in Somalia, Afghanistan and even now, in Iraq. These small countries have stood out valiantly against a Big Rogue with a brutal techno stick. Through the doctrine of the mean, these small armies made mince meat out of big ones.


Russia also got humiliated by horse-riding Afghans. The Russians have their tanks, the Afghans their camels. Ranged against each other, the Russians lost.  It was sheer will that made the Afghans win the war, only to lose it later to the United States military. Right now however, the Afghans are winning the war, thanks to urban guerilla tactics the US described as terrorism.


When big armies get brutalized by small ones, the big ones call those strikes, "terrorism". When big armies kill small ones, they call it "liberation."


In the case of China, it is flexing its muscles because it wants to hide what the world does not know--China's problem in succession.


The old guards are slowly fading out of the picture. A new group of former cadres are ascending the leadership. This group is more ideologically astute than the former ones. This group is divided into two: those who are staunchly Socialist and those who accept the possibility of Socialism thriving in a capitalist system. 


Both groups are accusing each other of corruption. Fact is, China is actually being destroyed internally. Because of its entry into the capitalist game, China has allowed itself to be corrupted. This corruption has seeped into the very structural core of the Party. Many party members became wealthy. Socialist ethic has been replaced by capitalist ideals.


Those who handle enterprises that became global are dictating the terms of the game within the party. However, there are still conservative elements within the Chinese state who are wary on the path the country is taking.


This conservatives know how capitalism works. They know that the more involved they are in this game, the more dependent they are in the network. Wealth in capitalism is created when you extend yourself. The more you extend yourself in the network, the richer you become and the more dependent you are. The more you are linked within these interconnections, the lesser power you hold since thousands now dictate where you go and what direction to take.


In China's case, it is dependent on foreign capital. A war will cripple its industries. Chinese monies are parked in several capitalist countries and a war such as a war for Spratlys will harm Chinese interests more than it gains in the process.


A shooting war between China and the Philippines will inevitably drag the United States into the fray. The Mutual defense treaty between the Philippines and the United States is still in effect. A US intervention in a war will benefit the US more than China. 


China must realize that it benefits more in peacetime than in war. This is not the imperialist age anymore where territories are vital possessions to create wealth. Wealth is created differently in this day and age and creation of it depends largely on stability rather destabilization.


A destabilized China will create tensions within its economic structure. Foreign investments will surely be shaken by any unfavorable military action by China. Imagine the monumental disruption a war between China and the United States will create. This benefits the US war economy and surely, a Chinese economy suffers more in war rather than in peacetime.


Why? China's economy depends on manufacturing. A war will disrupt this. Yes, China can very well turn its economy into a war-oriented one, similar to the United States. However, unlike the US however, China is simply not yet ready to turn their plough-shares into arms. Besides, the very nature of the Chinese economy contradicts a war. Most of the economy are dependent on foreign capital. A capital flight will surely happen once China enters into a foolish war like Spratlys. 


Even without the intervention of the US, China still stands to lose more in an attack against the Philippines. In the eyes of the world, Scarborough shoal is more a Philippine territory than Chinese due to its proximity to Zambales, a town in the Northern part of the Philippines. In a war of perception, China loses.


This will also be perceived as China employing bullying tactics against a hapless nation, such as the Philippines. This will disrupt regional peace and plunge the entire region into a war. A war in the Pacific harms capitalism in this region. Investments will shift from Asia to Europe. 


Besides, China really stands to lose even in an actual war against Philippine forces. One, the archipelagic nature of the country benefits the Philippines rather than an invader. Even if China occupies the capital, the Philippine government will just shift its center of power to any place in the archipelago.  A brutal urban guerilla warfare will decimate a one million man army. It will be protracted but in the end, a small dedicated and fiercely nationalist army will surely defeat even a big army such as the People's Liberation Army.


Besides, wars nowadays depend on technologies. When technology ends, war shifts from modern to barbaric. The Philippine military is trained in all sorts of scenarios, from modern to barbaric. Are Chinese soldiers ready to die? Time and again, Pinoys have shown extraordinary courage in times of great distress. Every Pinoy is a warrior. We may be equipped only by sticks and stones, but we have the intellect to turn these into missiles that win battles, and wars.

On China-RP Standoff at Scarborough Shoal: 3 Defensive Weapons Pinoys can use against the Chinese Military

They say, in a shooting war, the Philippines does not stand a Chinaman's chance against the Chinese military. For one, they have a million armed men while we only have 120,000 and some of these are not fully armed. They have a sophisticated fleet of ships, we only have a handful. They have fighter jets, we have our tora-toras. They have their tanks, we have our water tanks. And they have their missiles; we have our water-filled injectables.


In a shooting war with China, obviously, the Philippines does not stand a chance. The odds are really small. 


However, what many do not realize is the fact that this is the 21st century where wars are dictated not so much by technology, but by skill, strategy and persistence. This age is what I call the age of the Small Armies where to para-phrase Lenin, "you only need seven professional revolutionaries to win a revolution." True.


If China do shoot at us to claim Scarborough shoal, or Panatag Islands for us, what do we do?


We can win this war if we Filipinos form our war defensive strategies as early as now. Obviously, this administration does not have one. They think that diplomacy will do. No. Diplomacy has its limits. When you already have gunboats posed at you and ready to shoot at a moment's notice, you must be ready with your defense. 


The Philippines does not need a sophisticated defensive system to repeal a Chinese attack. No.


Since we are small, we have to hit them where it hurts. We make sure than when do hit them, we hit hard and we hit to kill. What am I talking about?


I am talking about forming an army of Pinoy hackers and debilitating their entire system with a computer virus. Once they attack us, we attack them by sending a virus that will instruct their systems to attack their own, or self-destruct. This is entirely possible.


INstead of sending a missile when they send theirs, we only have to operate this system somewhere safe. 


China will be using technology to harm us. Let that same technology kill them. 


Second thing we need to do is, again, use technology to turn their people against them. It was effective during US imperialism during the early 19th century and likewise, in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. 


We use social media as a weapon of mass denouncement against Chinese intrusion into our shores. Thirty million voices updating and denouncing China's imperialism should really cause a massive image problem for the Chinese. 


Lastly, we have our titans, our Gokongweis, Tans, and the Sys whose investments are tied up with China's economy. Let them be our emissaries. Let them be deployed in China to pressure the leadership of China to abandon their imperialist appetite; otherwise, we get back our trillion dollar investments there.


Pressure also the international community to debilitate China by asking multinational companies to stop production there. China will be hit economically and will be pressured enough to stop its foolishness in the Spratlys.


As they say, the bigger they get, the bigger they fall, even when the smallest of the small hit them. This is true even here.


So, China, come here, and get punched out by us, puny Pinoys! Your million man army is no match to our 120,000 Manny Pacquiao-punching military! Haha! :-)


Pinoys let us rally around the flag! Protect our country from the chinks!