LAKAS-KAMPI CMD could elect New Prexy

Here's the thing. In the Philippines, all politics is local. National politicians behave like local officials. They do the same thing---reinforce the patron-client relationship through giving favors and the like. That said, what is more potent than a political party that has at least 72% of local officials under its wing? Surely, that is a very big threat to the ambitions of the counter-elite led by the Opposition.

Yesterday's LAKAS-KAMPI CMD launching party shows a stellar cast of trapos and people with graft cases. Nothing of a surprise there since even before this, LAKAS and KAMPI have shown dogged allegiance to Mrs. Arroyo. What is a surprise is the absence of perceived "strong supporters" like FVR, Villafuerte, Fernando and De Venecia---all original members of the first LAKAS-CMD and KAMPI. Ramos made his opposition known through a press conference. While others maintained their silence.

Now, what would happen to this "powerhouse" of a party? Will they splinter and scatter, as what the Opposition hopes? Unlikely, I suppose.

As I said, national politics behave like local ones and in local politics, relationships are based on support, particularly financial. If you have the booty, you win. If you have the lagay muscle, you win. But, if you just have "ideology", chances are, you lose. Nothing of a surprise since everyone knows how crude the political system still is.

With a 40 billion peso electoral kitty, that would ensure the perpetuation of elitist rule in this country. A huge sum of money like that could buy an election. And Interior secretary Ronnie Puno is probably not joking. This political party has the muscle to push the next president to Malacanang.

If Lakas KAMPI CMD continues on united, there is a big chance for them to get the presidency and frustrate the ambitions of a disunted opposition.

Lakas-KAMPI CMD--the devil's flock

A New political party will be unveiled today. This party, the elite's answer to the yearning clamour of the masses for change, will not be the one that would save us. It'll not be the one who'll save us from the rot,the mess that the Arroyo regime did for some nine years. No.

This party aims to perpetuate the existing clique's rule, a rule so base that it does not deserve even a page in this country's History.

That party---the merger of KAMPI, Mrs. Arroyo's political baby, and LAKAS-CMD, the creature invented by former president Fidel V. Ramos---is sure to create strong ripples in the political pond.

Admit it or not, this party is a powerhouse. It counts most of the local executives of this country as members and is powered by 40 billion pesos.

LAKAS-KAMPI CMD is a marriage of convenience, a desperate attempt by the ruling elitist clique to perpetuate its illegal rule. A legitimizing move, meant to justify an illegal administration, and an attempt to preserve the way of life that they so lavishly enjoyed these nine years.

Those who took part in the Hello Garci scandal, those who funded and earned from the most expensive highway in the world, those who continuously scam millions of farmers out of their harvests, those who import rice fit for pigs from Vietnam, those who benefitted from billion peso worth of DPWH projects, those who got billions from defense and telecomms projects, and those who took part in the scandalous and murderous Joc-Joc Bolante fertilizer scam, are now at it again.

These people will again, scam their way into power, the same method they used to illegally usurp power from an incumbent and the only way they know how to get money from public coffers.

This time though, the name itself betrays the very philosophy of this flock of vultures---Lakas (means strength) and Kampi (illegal association) merged together to subliminally tell us that they are more powerful than before.

That, in acting like a mafia, there's strength. Instead of unity, they opted to perpetuate a scheme of continual elite rule through KAMPIHAN, a belief so base and so immoral that it makes one puke even hearing it mentioned.

Tonight, LAKAS-KAMPI CMD will invite prospective recruits into their fold. How many and how influential those persons are, take a quick look at who heads this devil's marriage:

DILG Secretary Ronnie Puno, the architect of numerous electoral scams and scamlets.
Speaker Prospero Nograles, Davao's alleged land grabber and main proponent of sipsip politics in the Philippines
Cong. Villafuerte, the strong man of Bicol, the very reason why that region continues to wallow in extreme poverty.

Let the true Party of the Masses rise up and defeat this evil monster come 2010.

2010 Configurations--Bayani's pink slip, Loren's party, and Cheez Whiz

Sources from the administration confirmed the marriage of KAMPI, the administration political party and the Nationalist People's Coalition of former Ambassador Danding Cojuangco. This marriage, it seems, cements the political component of the Cojuangco-Arroyo-Ongpin cabal. And in all likelihood, this strong party, will field as a common candidate two names: Senators Loren Legarda and Cheez Escudero.

Yesterday, Senator Legarda already announced her willingness to run as president during her birthday party in Tondo. The birthday party has all the trappings of a campaign, with the pompoms, the free clinics, free food sans the wines and spirits that attends every Loren Legarda b-day party. When asked if she's willing to run as president, Legarda said that she's ready.

This is not all surprising considering that Loren has been going around the country, attending all these annual festivals and fiestas, even going to funerals all around the Philippines (heard that she did that in Vigan, Ilocos Sur). Loren wants to be president and her strong showing at the surveys could very well justify her intention.

However, what is NOT BEING REPORTED is the fact that Cheez Escudero topped the newest and recent surveys. Escudero is now at the number one spot, followed by Legarda, Noli, Villar, Roxas and a host of others. Expectedly, Chief Justice Puno is part of the bottom rung.

So, we have a situation here which the NPC should resolve---who between Escudero and Legarda will Cojuangco annoint as party standard bearer? Those allied with Mrs. Arroyo says that it will be Escudero who will asked to head the presidential campaign. However, what about Legarda who told a reporter yesterday that it's the presidency or nothing?

Was Legarda just bluffing? Probably not. Legarda's plan is linked with the expected candidacy of Vice President Noli de Castro. Legarda wants a second round with Kabayan. And she does'nt relish the scenario of playing second fiddle to a Kabayan presidency.

Are we seeing the first of a series of party dissension? If Legarda will not accede to Escudero, the NPC-KAMPI coalition might find themselves on the losing end come 2010.

By the way, I think in the bitter end, Escudero will just give way to Legarda since he's a few years shy of the constitutional qualification for president.

So, expect a Legarda-Escudero combination for NPC-KAMPI.

Question---what now, Kabayang Noli de Castro?

There are two options for Independent Kabayan---either give way to the courtship of Lakas as standard bearer or do it alone. Some sectors in Kabayan's camp are cold to Lakas while entertaining a merger with a slowly weakening Nacionalista camp. Since it's now evident that NPC has already went to bed with Kampi, this puts Noli in a bind.

Which party will Noli align himself with? He could probably make some overtures with NPC and KAMPI just to frustrate the ambitions of his nemesis, the Lady Legarda and try to spoil the brew there. Or he could stay independent and court some financial backers to support a new party ala what FVR did in 1992. This could prove beneficial to Noli given that in a clean elections, he stands a pretty good chance of clinching the top spot, given his strong showing at the surveys. However, for him to really get the top gun, he must play politics prior to the second half of this year. He must make some overtures to Legarda's backers and strike a deal that will probably leave Legarda in the lurch. He could still do that, given that majority thinks that Noli is winnable or at least have a fighting chance to get the presidency instead of Loren.

If all these fail, however, Noli can still align with Villar for a possible tandem. Heard that Lakas has teamed up with the Nacionalista and Villar is ready to give in to Kabayan as a compromise. So, in a Lakas-Nacionalista alliance, surely the winnable team is a Kabayan-Villar tandem.

So, this leaves Mr. Mar Roxas. What to do with him though?

Observers note that Senator Roxas could suffer the fate of his idol, the former Senate President Jovy Salonga. Yes, he has the financial muscle. Yes, he is charismatic. Yes, he has strength of organisation. However, what he is not, though, is this---he is still being lumped together with trapos like Villar, Escudero and Loren. He's not doing enough to differentiate himself from the motley crue.

Since we see a possible four presidential teamup, the winner will definitely be the one who'll successfully position himself as a maverick. Roxas still has the time to do this. His standings at the surveys are not plateau-ing, unlike Villar's. He still has a fighting chance. However, what he needs to do is continue positioning himself as a change agent rather than a rabble rouser. He needs to back up his anti-Arroyo statements with positive propositions. Meaning, the public would rather hear him talk about what to do with this mess rather than just rant.

In such a convoluted scenario, Roxas will have a hard time looking for a suitable partner. Obviously, a Roxas-Villar tandem will not work since it both pits two strong personalities together and in the realm of perceptions, a marriage of two traditional political parties.

Roxas might go the route of Roco who got a veritable unknown as tandem, only to lose and get the lowest rank in the elections. Most probably, Roxas might team up with a candidate to be fielded by the opposition camp, namely either from UNO or PMP. That candidate could either be Makati mayor Jejomar Binay or could even possibly be Gordon, should he jump ship this early and position himself more as independent rather than administration-dependent.

And there there is this joker, MMDA Bayani Fernando.

This loser of a dreamer still wants either the vice presidential post or a senator invitation. The problem is, even in the senatorial surveys, Fernando is faring VERY, VERY LOW. Inspite of his obvious tactic of gunning for the top spot and try to just run for the senate, Fernando's trust ratings are quite low. Yes, he's one---one percent vote. This one percent represents those who has dictatorial or Hitlerian mentality, those who dreams of pink, a shade of red. Clerics who try to write intellectual but does not understand even an iota of philosophy, subscribes and worships Fernando, probably finding him an iconic figure representing their repressed feelings while inside the seminary. Their pink slips are showing everytime Bayani fumbles. They try to disinfect Fernando's pseudo-Bayani antics to no avail. People are finding it simply too hard to re-imagine Bayani Fernando simply because no one could ever change a moronic and weak minded colorful chap like him.

Or, better yet, there's a solution. Bayani should fire his publicist.

The Marginalization of FVR

In the military, there's this thing called "mopping operations." It's usually done after the police or military has defeated or annihilated their enemies.

Talks are rife that this looming Cabinet revamp aims to do just that--a mopping up operation to erase the last vestiges or memory of former president and self-proclaimed statesman Fidel V. Ramos from governance.

Yes, the once feared and the most respected Philippine president in the post-Marcos regime has been whittled down to size by his protege, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Before, FVR's words rang perfectly loud in the halls of Malacanang. In the 7 years of Gloria's rule, FVR's presence was not symbolic. Some quarters believe that he ran a shadow government, since many of Gloria's appointees and close-in advisers were either FVR's former officials or close to the former president. Despite being out of government and into retirement, many value the counsel of the cigar-chomping former leader who reigned in an era of prosperity prior to Erap's disastrous administration.

Now, FVR is just a mere shadow of his once influential self. Before, he commands respect among the military and the political elite. Today, he can't even unite his fragmented and weakened political baby. The reason is too obvious--FVR has lost considerable clout and power.

It began when Gloria's political machine, KAMPI started raiding LAKAS constituency in the 2004 elections. Puno's first attempt went pfft since most of the political titans of the country are unconvinced of Gloria's staying power then. The usurper was just not strong enough like FVR. Hence, the plan to marginalize Lakas went awry and momentarily ceased.

However, as Gloria weathers political storms one from another, it gave her the chance to consolidate her mass base. As she wins her political battles, Gloria grew stronger in Lakas while FVR's clout decreased. After 3 years, LAKAS went from being the most dominant party to a messed up, confused and discordant organization of old, worn-out politicians.

FVR vainly hold on to power by positioning himself as a kingmaker. Every destabilization event was exploited for his own interests. The last public show of affection was during the height of the ZTE scandal where FVR was heard shouting hosanna while thousands march at Ayala against Gloria. FVR tried to position himself as a kingmaker once more, since the last two destabilization attempts showed him as Gloria's Knight in Shining Armor.

That last one did not go the way FVR wanted it to be. Despite that PDA (public display of affection), FVR failed to parry the blows of KAMPI against Lakas. Gloria and her gang continued their recruitment efforts, part of an insidious plan to marginalize LAKAS before Gloria and her KAMPI allies start the cha-cha train.

When Gloria's men succeeded in destroying LAKAS party base, they then turned their sights on Jose de Venecia Jr. Weak as a baby, JDV went from the 4th most powerful man to relative obscurity. His propensity for politicking and compromise-building was exposed as genetic weakness and led to his humiliating defeat. Now, we don't hear anything from the man from Pangasinan, a victim of Gloria's ultimate quest to be the only strong leader in the country.

It's now the turn of Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita, perceived as one of FVR's closest, to get the hatchet. Gloria and her gang are planning for his immediate exile to Washington. The last of the Bushido gang, Ermita's departure from the halls of power is widely viewed as a direct assault against the once formidable FVR group.

After Ermita, there's no other major FVR general in Arroyo's Cabinet. Yes, there were talks of retiring general Hermogenes Esperon Jr. being "promoted" to replace Teodoro. However, Arroyo is not about to do that. She's a shrewd one. She knows that Esperon is FVR's hidden weapon and she'll not allow FVR's group to again take a step inside the palace.

With Ermita's departure almost certain, no other group holds Gloria hostage. Its now complete. Finished.

Gloria has complete command of the State--from the senior and junior military elites to the political, economic and judicial elites. Her clout has even extended to the barangays, mayors, and governors.

Her alliance with Cojuangco remained strong, suggesting a possible common presidential candidate in the person of either Loren Legarda or Noli de Castro. KAMPI has become the strongest and the most influential political party in the Philippines. It has now, the capability and the strength to dictate the terms of political battle come 2010. In fact, I am not surprised why the Senate suddenly turned 180 degrees for cha-cha. Most of those who signed Resolution 10 are pragmatists. They know that this is not the time to go against the existing political reality.

And what is that reality? That Gloria's gang has a very strong possibility of clinching an extended power trip beyond 2010. Mark my word. Gloria is now in the position to dictate the terms of engagement simply due to her purported strong survival instincts.

What now, my General? Do you still have an ace in your sleeves?

Arroyo government--China's Puppet Regime

In the next few years, Filipinos will be asking the Chinese for permission to mine their own mountains, permit to plant their own rice seedlings in their own fat soil and permissions to fish their own bangus in their own waters. You may think that I'm exaggerating. I'm not. Right now, as things stand, I am studying the executive agreements we entered with China and these deals are alarming to say the least.

A few weeks from now, Lakas Christian-Muslim democrats and Kampi stalwart Puno will be visiting China. One of the goals of the visit is to explore the possibility of a tieup of Lakas-Kampi with the Chinese Communist Party. I thought Arroyo is fighting the Filipino Communists? I thought there's a campaign to eradicate Communists in this country? What's all these?

Are we now telling the world that we want to be Communists? That we don't want alliances with the free world and those Christian democrats and we want to align ourselves with Mao's party? That the reason why Arroyo ousted JDV from Lakas is she has this malicious intention to become a member of the Chinese Communist Party?

Are we now selling democratic ideals in lieu of Communism? Is Arroyo telling us that (1) the reason why she wants to eradicate Joma is she wants to be the Philippine premier of the CCP version here? That this whole charade is just to make our country a puppet of China, a protectorate?

Well, well, well! Arroyo's really a very skilful politician! What Joma failed to achieve in almost 40 years, Arroyo just did in less than 10 years, what a revolutionary! Kahanga-hanga!

So now, we have effectively ousted the Americans as our foreign protector some 17 years ago. I never thought in my whole adult life that I'll be seeing them replaced by the Chinese.

Is it time to learn Mandarin?

Arroyo is the strongest Philippine leader today

Vowing never to go silently, Joe de Venecia made an hour long scathing speech against his former protege, Arroyo. Threatening to expose the anomalies of government, De Venecia slammed Arroyo's administration for graft and corruption and abuse of power. After his valedictory address, the gallery exploded to applause.

Many praise him for what he did. Others, especially those congressmen who were his former allies, criticized him for attacking the president.

Davao Congressman Nograles is the new speaker. Nograles remarked that his election as speaker could be fate. For me, it's not. He got what he wanted by kissing the behind of Arroyo.

What can we make of this things?

First, the ouster of JDV show how strong and how resilient this administration has become. Mrs. Gloria Arroyo is the strongest Philippine leader today. Her position has been further strengthened by this because it shows that she can actually oust even a JDV, a former strong ally.

Its a signal to her other enemies or detractors that she can practically do anything that she wants now. She has strengthened her own party Kampi. By effectively raiding Lakas, Arroyo has made a new party out of the one she considered as her own for so many years.

Second, the lack or absence of dissent from civil society shows how strong Arroyo has become. It signals to her and her lapdogs to actually do whatever they want to perpetuate themselves to power even after 2010.

I bet that the next move of Arroyo etal would be to start the cha-cha train. Nobody can stop Arroyo now from becoming the longest reigning president this country ever had. No other group or force or personality can oust Arroyo now.



With all

New Configurations in Congress

Congress is in for war. Two camps, De Venecia's and Nograles' are gearing for a major battle possibly in the first week of February. Both camps have been saber-rattling. Both claim to have the support of Gloria Arroyo.

Reports claim that Mrs. Arroyo has given the signal for De Venecia's ouster. However, reports are connecting this order with the revival of the ZTE probe. I don't believe that Arroyo's order is directly connected with this probe. Even prior to the ZTE controversy, the camps of Arroyo and De Venecia have already been feuding. It started with Kampi raiding the ranks of Lakas in the 2007 elections and spilling over post-election period. Quarters are really after De Venecia's head because some grew tired of his "user-friendly" style of administration while others simply hate how he uses the speakership to corner juicy deals in government.

People, especially from civil society, are not massing behind JDV. There's no public outrage against these ouster moves. In fact, most welcome the possible change in the speakership post since it would give Mindanaoans (if they succeed in ousting JDV and replace him with his buddy. Rep. Nograles) a chance to prop up their voice in Congress.

The ZTE probe has nothing to do with JDV's possible ouster. Certain quarters in media close to JDV use this issue just to play up the emotions of the people and possibly get public support behind JDV. However, they are failing to mass up since people are already tired of JDV. I mean, the guy has been given five times to make his mark for Philippine development. He has failed five times.

Ominous times ahead for political parties

Arroyo allies are raiding and wrecking rival political parties way ahead of the 2010 polls. Lito Atienza, a known Arroyo lapdog, has succeeded in splitting the Liberal Party, which I believe, has the potential to be the strongest party in 2010. Reports that Sen. Kiko Pangilinan rejected calls for him to head the party further fuel talks that the party of presidentiable Mar Roxas is weakening. These reports are very bad for the party since it will discourage big-time campaign funders from giving campaign distributions to LP. If this happens, then, LP will find it very hard to launch a decent presidential campaign in 2010. No amount of palengke tours of Roxas will mask this weakening of LP.

Talks of Legarda's possible transfer to Lakas via the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) are getting louder by the minute. This shows that talks between a possible Roxas-Legarda tandem have failed. NPC is gearing for a coalition with Lakas since the FVR party has lost considerable strength with raidings from Kampi and these ouster moves against Lakas party stalwart JDV. Lakas needs all the support it could get from other parties. It has already aligned with Atienza's LP faction. However, it is planning for NPC's numbers to prop its base support.

What these means is this--political rivals of Kampi are slowly being raided and destroyed from within. Why? Because people behind Arroyo are preparing for cha-cha. I know this sounds disjointed but hear me out. Cha-cha is not yet dead. It will be revived after the ouster of JDV this February. When that happens, nothing can stop Gloria's camp from campaigning for her as prime minister.

Who'll win the high-stakes war?

Talks are rife that Malacanang is really campaigning for the ouster of JDV. Despite very public pronouncements from both sides that they love each other, privately, they hate each other's guts. Quite simply, this struggle between cliques inside the ruling administration party reflects the "nervousness" of the party since 2010 is just around the corner. The absence of any worthy presidentiable among their ranks are beginning to worry party leaders. A news report says Lakas has been conducting a search for a party standard-bearer, and talks are again rife that most of Lakas solons have'nt really found somebody yet worthy of fielding against the De Castros, the Lacsons, the Roxases and Villars of other parties. The prospect of defeat looms in the horizon.

The possibility of Lakas again being marginalized and out of power in a post-Arroyo regime looms large, as the party is still struggling hard to maintain its current stature. Raids conducted by Kampi, the president's own party, caused a dent in the Lakas organizational structure. Though results from the elections seemed to indicate that Lakas managed to pull a fast one from Kampi, nonetheless, threats still remain, ironically coming from their allies instead of their perceived traditional enemies.

Most of these reports about the "impeachment" complaint filed by a nondescript lawyer and the current "war" between JDV and GMA shows a classic war between trapos. Obviously, both sides know that they are headed towards a confrontation. JDV is using this impeachment complaint as his ace against the president while the president used a traitor in the person of Pulido to oust the speaker in another route. Caught in middle are their respective allies. Right now, its a numbers game. Both cliques are counting on their political mass bases for survival.

The question is---why is Malacanang moving against JDV? Is it because of the ZTE?

No. ZTE is just a peripheral issue here. The revelation of Joey is a small matter.

The main contention here is the prime ministership. The plan is to initiate a constitutional change from a presidential to parliamentary before 2010 and both Arroyo and De Venecia want the post. This is the prime driver causing a wedge between both cliques.

On the ground, proxy wars are being initiated by both camps. There's an appearance that JDV and GMA are still allie but in reality, they are just preparing for war. With this situation, both the executive and the lower house have been rendered ineffective and debilitated. Ravenous parties lusting for wealth and power are exploiting this issue to court favours from both parties. What we now have is a serious intra-elite struggle that needs something to get full-blown. The law of nature dictates that for every flow, there should be an outlet to release the energy. This needs an outlet. And their pawns and generals should create one and fast.