No Mas

A year ago, hordes of devils descended upon a group of hapless journalists and old folks. Armed to the teeth, these devils plowed everybody down, castrated some, mutilated women and tried to burn every body they violated. Most of the victims bore not just bullet wounds, but some women even bore stab wounds in their private parts. After the gruesome act, the devils laughed their way to obscurity.


But the True and Living God, just and merciful, heard the cries of the victims and one by one, these devils fell into the hands of the Law. The question is, after a year of trials and hearings, do we expect justice to be meted upon the victims of this heinous crime?


These devils tried to use their contacts with the previous administration. They also tried to downplay the incident. But God truly works in mysterious ways. All but some were arrested and  are now facing trial.


And the stories just got more brutal.


A human rights group revealed several other gruesome crimes allegedly committed by the Ampatuans in Maguindanao. The Ampatuans were so brazen, they were able to hide these crimes for years, without us knowing it. With a new governor in place, several of the Ampatuan's secrets are beginning to unravel.


These are stories of brutality, of plain and sheer banality and of cruelty beyond words. 


This happens when the central government loses control over a territory and when the central government allows its allies full control over the resources, and people, of a particular territory. The Ampatuans, mind you, are not an exemption. Fact is, warlordism exists in every damned parcel of land in these places!


Mindanao is particularly interesting because of the sheer number of people, all claiming to be gods there. In Basilan, several warlords fight for dominion in the island, same goes in Sulu and Tawi-Tawi. In several parts of the mainland, we have both Muslim and Christians fighting for the same political territory, abandoned by the Central government. This happens in a very weak state such as ours.


No more, says several human rights groups. But, until pre-Islamic practices exist, until this pseudo-royality system still continues to animate the minds of Muslims, there will never be a time when cruelty against men will cease to continue. 


Pious Muslims should stand up and resist pre-Islamic practices there. There will never be peace in Mindanao if Muslims continue to exercise practices contrary to the teachings of Islam and of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH).


Muslims should eradicate people like the Ampatuans who not only besmirched Islam but created so much harm and havoc in Maguindanao that the province continues to suffer hardship due to years of neglect and violence. 

Barack to meet Arroyo at White House. Why???

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Dangers Ahead---Macabre birthday gift to Mrs. Arroyo

Senator Richard Gordon yesterday left the fate of the two foreign hostages, Notter and Vagni in the hands of Philippine president Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. The senator just wanted to be clear---he already did his part and it is now up to the higher-ups to avert an international incident that a beheading might create. Gordon said that the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) has not lifted its ultimatum, that is, behead one hostage. And the dangers are there. The ASG went ahead of schedule when they did that in 2002. They beheaded an American tourist in June 12, 2002 as a gift to Mrs. Arroyo. And they can still do that.

What escapes Mrs. Arroyo and her hawks inside the palace is this---the world tolerated government insensitivity in 2002 precisely because Mrs. Arroyo was just "new at the job". Uncanny still, this newest hostage crisis happened at the twilight of her rule. Such a macabre coincidence, I might say. If the ASG beheads one of the hostages, possibly the injured one, Mrs. Arroyo enjoys the reputation as the only president in the annals of Philippine history to be given two "macabre" gifts during her reign---one at the start and the other, at the twilight of her administration.

It's different now since there's a new US president who has shown insensitivity to Mrs. Arroyo before. If a beheading happens in Sulu, surely, that would further heighten the "bad rep" already being enjoyed by Mrs. Arroyo over at Washington. That would be a sign for the US State department to support moves against Mrs. Arroyo since it would validate the perception that the Philippine government remains as the weakest link in the anti-terror fight in the region.

A beheading would surely boast the morale of mujaheddins and jihadists all over the world. It would serve as a beacon for a renewed fight against the West. Wittingly or unwittingly, Mrs. Arroyo would take a part of this, since it would be under her administration that such a thing would happen.

So, now, before Mrs. Arroyo blows her 62nd birthday candle, her advisers should remind her to show resolve and decide this thing today. Order a temporary pullout. If not, then, be ready to explain to the world why this beheading happened. Then, prepare and pack your suitcase already Mrs. Arroyo and head off to Portugal.

Arroyo's Real Agenda in Mindanao

As what I wrote in an earlier entry, the Abu Sayyaf Group extended the deadline for the beheading of the three Red Cross hostages. Many sources say that the ASG will be releasing their hostages very soon.

However, there are also reports saying that the reason why the ASG is demanding troop pullout is that there is a big contingent of foreign trained fighters coming to Jolo. Expecting a big fight soon? Reports also reveal that big shipments of arms and ammunition were seen at the Jolo docks. Both groups, the AFP and the ASG preparing for a showdown?

Does this mean that the AFP and their agents are preparing for a showdown to justify Mrs. Arroyo's term extension? Is this part of the plan to justify the State of Emergency, to start in Jolo and then spillover to the rest of Mindanao?

Governor Sakur Tan's interview last night revealed much about government's real plan---an assault against the ASG meant to further fuel the war in Mindanao.

The Mindanao War, part 1

Brussels-based International Crisis Group validated earlier entries in this site on the continued existence of about 60 Islamic militants allegedly seeking sanctuary in Mindanao.

Yesterday, former General and now head of the Philippine counter-terrorism unit, Arturo Lomibao, echoed the ICG's concern--that despite strict controls, members of the Jemaah Islamiyah continue to pour into Mindanao. 

This problem persists despite billions of pesos worth of government intelligence funds and overseas development assistance (ODA). Likewise, the failure of CIA-sponsored civic organisations and "peace groups" to penetrate the deep cover of JI in Mindanao is also one factor.

The presence of Islamic militants in Mindanao is not new. Since the 1970's, Mindanao has been the haven of jihadists escaping the long arm of the law in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. It is not surprising since Mindanao's lush forests provide a convenient cover for militarist trainings; and its long coastlines, somewhat indefensible and poorly monitored, give jihadists convenient entry and exit into so-called Philippine territory.

Compounding this is the lack of trust among Muslim communities on anything "government-related" or "government-initiated". Intelligence units try and fail to get substantial information because they lack public support, plus the fact that the citizenry now perceives them as a foreign invading force out to destroy Bangsamoro land. 

However, I do disagree with the findings of the ICG on the status of hostilities between the MILF and the AFP. The ICG claims that both forces don't have enough resources to sustain a long-drawn out war. 

Firstly, the MILF does not need resources comparable to those of an regular army formation. By the looks of it, the MILF has abandoned the strategy of maintaining full army-size battalion units and has shown the capability of fully utilising mobile guerilla units. Hence, the Bangsamoro Islamic Liberation Army Front (BILAF) enjoys both strategic and tactical advantages over the AFP since maintaining guerrilla units is more cost-effective.

And in a guerilla war situation, the longer it takes, the higher the success rate for the MILF. Inversely, the longer this war takes on the GRP, the lower the success rate of the AFP in winning this theater of war. Why? The AFP would be over-extending its forces, combatting extremists, Bangsamoro mujaheddins, extremist forces lurking within its organisation and the New People's Army. In this kind of war, superiority in numbers does'nt count much since any guerilla warfare expert would definitely tell you that it's just a matter of time before a highly efficient and mobile guerilla organisation cuts an army to pieces. Cases in point: Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Cambodia, Kosovo, Chechnya, China, Cuba, and of course, Somalia.

Foreign Islamic militants serve not just as bearers of new technology; they serve as morale boasters. Equipped with the knowledge of Islam, these JI members are better than army chaplains. They can go to the battlefield and provide psychological support to guerillas. Plus factor is most of these Islamists are experts in Islamic studies; hence, they conduct religious indoctrination to those communities within the guerillas' area of operations.

Their presence also changes the complexion of the war since it brings international attention to this war in Mindanao. International attention means more money and more logistics, thus prolonging the capability of the Bangsamoro mujaheddin to wage war against the AFP.

So, we see the difference. The orientation of the Bangsamoro is strategic while the AFP is more tactical. The AFP intends to defeat the MILF camp-per-camp, a conventional strategy. While the Bangsamoro mujaheddins plans to defeat the entire force of the GRP through a strategic and protracted guerilla war. 

Problems I see

One sticky issue that could hamper and even affect the outcome of this guerilla war is the on-going internal issues happening within the guerilla organisation. Despite MILF spokesman Eid Kabalu's denials that there is no "animosity" happening between MILF ground commanders and the leadership of Murad, the disparity between his "official statement" and those recently said by MILF Commander Bravo over at ABS-CBN says volumes on the miscommunication between Murad's group and those of his commanders. 

Commander Bravo's statement borders on military engagement while Kabalu's statement echoes the stand of the MILF Central Leadership. It is possible that Murad's group is being "isolated" right now by at least ten field commanders. 

Basis? First, these field commanders oppose any negotiations with the GRP. Even at the start of the negotiations, MILF field commanders have registered their protest, owing to their previous experience talking peace with GRP. This fact belies the statement issued by US Ambassador Kristie Kenney, which cast doubt on the capability of Murad to "bring in the numbers" should a peace settlement really happen. Earlier reports suggest that even if a peace pact is agreed upon by both parties, the probability of assimilating MILF forces into the mainstream remains slim or even nil. 

Second, the opposition of the commanders show how extensive the organisational influence of Islamist thinking among the MILF organisation. Majority of the MILF believes in waging jihad instead of talking peace with these mushrikuns and kafirs. This shows a deeper appreciation of correct Islamic thinking which reminds you of the pervasive influence of Salamat-oriented thinking instead of Murad's. However, I think this thinking has evolved to include JI-oriented thinking, which is more internationalist than Salamat's. 

Losing Murad

There is a possibility that Murad's isolation will be complete in the next few weeks or months. Should Murad lose the MILF leadership, the vacuum would be filled by a more militant leader who'll definitely abandon any peace talks and who'll set his sights on international solidarity. 

A split within the MILF, however, should not be a cause of joy for the GRP. On the contrary, this will show a change in the complexion of the war. 

Likewise, if the GRP thinks that these commanders will just went over the fence and go to Nur Misuari's camp, think again. Indications point to a formation of a new group whose orientation is more on protracted jihad than talking peace. Misuari's influence is not that pervasive nor persuasive. If Misuari thinks that he can still unify the Bangsamoro People under his supposed leadership, he's mistaken. He has been co-opted already and enjoys only a miniscule of support even among the Tausugs.

However, the possibility of two theaters of war exists. The GRP would be battling two fronts: the new organisation of MILF commanders and Misuari's peace army. Oh, include that section of the ASG. 

Next, I will be discussing the widespread implications of this in RP and the region. So, stay tune...

Barack Obama and the Mindanao problem

The Internet is a-buzz of news about Senator Barack Obama's announcement of his running mate. Speculations abound on who'll be his anointed one. This early, some say, whoever Obama chose as his running mate may very well be the next vice president given the high ratings the Obama campaign has been getting lately. Analysts see Obama has just clutched the presidency.

What I'm interested is how Obama would conduct the foreign affairs of America. Early indications point to a full withdrawal of troops in 2011, which Iraqi officials say should be a full withdrawal of troops. Obama has said time and again that US troops will disengage themselves from Iraq, since it is costing the American public billions just to maintain US presence in Iraq. 

However, Obama has yet to address the increasing problems of terrorism in the Asia-Pacific region. We presume that Obama will continue the existing US policy against terror in the region, yet, up to what extent? Yes, anti-terror campaigns will definitely continue under either an Obama or a McCain presidency, but who'll be more vigilant and more vigorous in chasing after these Islamic terrorists? Given the record of Obama, will he be implementing a "softer" approach to this global menace?

Likewise, flashpoints are beginning to emerge in Georgia and possibly in Mindanao Philippines should fighting escalate between Philippine forces and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The theater of war is shifting, from the desert to the fertile plains of Southeast Asia. Should the Philippine government mishandles the situation in Mindanao, Obama will have his hands full engaging terrorism in other fronts or quite possibly, in multivariate areas. 

So, the US as represented by Ambassador Kristie Kenney should do everything in her power to prevent this conflict in Mindanao from turning into a regional one. I suspect that this war could eventually be the one serious legacy of the Bush administration which Obama would find hard finding a lasting solution. 

Effects of a Full-Scale War In Mindanao

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