FBI tried to arrest First Gentleman Mike Arroyo?

Sometime August, a group of Federal Bureau of Investigation agents purportedly belonging to the anti-terror division visited the Philippines. Their mission is simple--trace the flow of"hot money". Their plan? Investigate the flow of hot or laundered money from known terrorists to their fronts in the Philippines. Since 2000, the Philippines has been the easy conduit of terrorist funds. Global funds go thru the Philippines and into other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. IN fact, there are some talks that funding for the Mumbai attacks actually emanated from the Philippines. How true? We don't exactly know. Possible? Yes, highly likely.

Now, reportedly during their probe, they included top officials of the Arroyo administration. Allegedly, they probed one suspicious account of a very close associate of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's husband, Mike Arroyo. This very close associate is known as a hot-shot big-time operator. When they investigated his account, the group eventually found a supposed "link" to the First Gentleman.

Things unfolded and reportedly, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) established a very strong case of anti-money laundering against First Gentleman Mike Arroyo. Now, if you ask, is it legal for the US government to file charges of money laundering against Mike Arroyo? Yes, they can do that. They did it with the dictator General Noriega. The crime of money laundering is not only local or parochial--it is also deemed an international crime, given that it is being used as a way for terrorists to fund their illegal activities.

As Manila Standard Today columnist Tony Abaya and Daily Tribune's Lito Banayo wrote a few days ago, this is the reason why the plane carrying the Presidential entourage going to Peru suddenly U-turned, purportedly due to diarrhea suffered by the First Gentleman. Under normal circumstances, the plane could have landed in Hawaii, the nearest place for that PAL flight no. 001 to have landed, according to the standard operating procedure for emergency cases. Since Hawaii or the Marshall Islands belong to the US territory, Abaya and Banayo said that reportedly the First Couple requested that the plane go in the opposite direction--Japan--a full 3 hours extra.

Going back to the First Gentleman's alleged FBI case--is it plausible? Yes, a crime, if committed, could be prosecuted by the US if, for example, some funds were "parked" in US banks. FBI sources say, this is the case.

Talks also indicated that some FBI and CIA probe teams have allegedly talked with the former wife of Iggy Arroyo who fled the country after her bitter fight with the Congressman. Reportedly, Iggy's wife brought billions of pesos in the Jose Pidal account away from the Philippines. How true? Well, circumstantial evidence points to a "hurried" flight to Europe by the estranged wife who reportedly took revenge against Iggy because the Congressman allegedly maul his wife to near death. How true? Well, politicians get intrigues left and right.

What's so significant about this? Well, this presents a very strong evidence of corruption against the First Family, if this is true. Second, this shows a very weak spot in the First Family's armor of defense. This case, I believe, shows how vulnerable the First Couple is right now that this regime could be on the verge of collapse. Remember that before the Marcos regime crumbled, the Marcos family was first subjected to subtle yet strong attacks from the US government. If this is true, then, this bolsters talks about the obviously very weak or softening support of the US State department in the Arroyo regime.

Now, as I said, to defeat the Arroyo regime, groups must first slowly attack its armour of invincibility. This case is, I believe, if proved true, could be the one that would lead to the eventual collapse and disintegration of this regime. No amount of publicity from the return of Pacquiao would prevent or deter forces from finally ousting Gloria Arroyo.

Bloody Thanksgiving

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) warned US security agencies to be on full alert for a possible Al Qaeda attack against New York. This follows a massive terrorist assault in India's biggest city Mumbai, killing more than a 100 people and injuring 400 others. As I'm writing this, Indian police are still in pitched street battles against the terrorists. Two hotels, the Taj Mahal and the Oneji have been attacked. An undetermined number of hostages are being held by the terrorists who identified themselves as the "Deccan Mujaheedins". However, Indian Intelligence points to another fundamentalist group which allegedly linked with the Deccans to create this very chaotic situation.

President-elect Barack Obama has condemned the attack. The entire United Nations also condemned it, saying that the terror attack was a cowardly one staged by fundamentalists. US intelligence agencies say, this could very be the handiwork of Al Qaeda, the dreaded group of Osama Bin Laden. An anti-terror expert told CNN that the Mumbai attacks could just be a big diversionary tactic, aimed at pulling Pakistan into a war with India, thereby insulating Osama Bin Laden's group which is hiding in the border hinderlands of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

A few weeks before the Mumbai attacks, a video of Sawahiri was released lambasting US president-elect Barack Obama. That video should have been analyzed by security agencies since it could be a sign, a signal for aligned fundamentalist groups in India to start their terror campaign.

These attacks show how lax India's intelligence forces are. Even the head of the anti-terror intelligence group and his close-ins were killed by the terrorists. Possibly, there could be external help since the attacks bear the trademark of Al Qaeda. The operation was highly sophisticated and show how well financed these groups are.

Now, the question remains--what's the next targets? Aside from New York, which traditionally remains the target of fundamentalist hatred, there are indications that Al Qaeda-affiliated groups are silently organizing and in the last stages of planning their attacks. There is a big possibility that Asian countries frequented by Westerners for the holidays will be the next targets. Will there be an attack in Bali Indonesia? Possible. Will militants attack Australia? They could. Is Singapore safe from militant attacks? If New York was attacked by Al Qaeda, what would spare this tiny island from these frenzied groups? How about China? Is China a target? Hongkong, Macau and even Beijing are possible targets.

What am I saying here? Governments all over the world, especially in the Asia-Pacific region (where security and intelligence capabilities are weaker than European ones) should take extra precautions and alert themselves for possible terrorist attacks. These fundamentalist groups are determined to strike allies of US prior to the swearing in of Barack Obama. Terrorists think that Obama does not have the mettle of a Clinton or a John McCain, so they think that they should intensify both their low-intensity and high-intensity conflict plans to lure Obama into a trap and make him commit an error. It was good that Obama retained Gates as Pentagon head. The US cannot afford a new head for the Pentagon at this point since very serious security threats plague the world today.

The Mindanao War, part 1

Brussels-based International Crisis Group validated earlier entries in this site on the continued existence of about 60 Islamic militants allegedly seeking sanctuary in Mindanao.

Yesterday, former General and now head of the Philippine counter-terrorism unit, Arturo Lomibao, echoed the ICG's concern--that despite strict controls, members of the Jemaah Islamiyah continue to pour into Mindanao. 

This problem persists despite billions of pesos worth of government intelligence funds and overseas development assistance (ODA). Likewise, the failure of CIA-sponsored civic organisations and "peace groups" to penetrate the deep cover of JI in Mindanao is also one factor.

The presence of Islamic militants in Mindanao is not new. Since the 1970's, Mindanao has been the haven of jihadists escaping the long arm of the law in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. It is not surprising since Mindanao's lush forests provide a convenient cover for militarist trainings; and its long coastlines, somewhat indefensible and poorly monitored, give jihadists convenient entry and exit into so-called Philippine territory.

Compounding this is the lack of trust among Muslim communities on anything "government-related" or "government-initiated". Intelligence units try and fail to get substantial information because they lack public support, plus the fact that the citizenry now perceives them as a foreign invading force out to destroy Bangsamoro land. 

However, I do disagree with the findings of the ICG on the status of hostilities between the MILF and the AFP. The ICG claims that both forces don't have enough resources to sustain a long-drawn out war. 

Firstly, the MILF does not need resources comparable to those of an regular army formation. By the looks of it, the MILF has abandoned the strategy of maintaining full army-size battalion units and has shown the capability of fully utilising mobile guerilla units. Hence, the Bangsamoro Islamic Liberation Army Front (BILAF) enjoys both strategic and tactical advantages over the AFP since maintaining guerrilla units is more cost-effective.

And in a guerilla war situation, the longer it takes, the higher the success rate for the MILF. Inversely, the longer this war takes on the GRP, the lower the success rate of the AFP in winning this theater of war. Why? The AFP would be over-extending its forces, combatting extremists, Bangsamoro mujaheddins, extremist forces lurking within its organisation and the New People's Army. In this kind of war, superiority in numbers does'nt count much since any guerilla warfare expert would definitely tell you that it's just a matter of time before a highly efficient and mobile guerilla organisation cuts an army to pieces. Cases in point: Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Cambodia, Kosovo, Chechnya, China, Cuba, and of course, Somalia.

Foreign Islamic militants serve not just as bearers of new technology; they serve as morale boasters. Equipped with the knowledge of Islam, these JI members are better than army chaplains. They can go to the battlefield and provide psychological support to guerillas. Plus factor is most of these Islamists are experts in Islamic studies; hence, they conduct religious indoctrination to those communities within the guerillas' area of operations.

Their presence also changes the complexion of the war since it brings international attention to this war in Mindanao. International attention means more money and more logistics, thus prolonging the capability of the Bangsamoro mujaheddin to wage war against the AFP.

So, we see the difference. The orientation of the Bangsamoro is strategic while the AFP is more tactical. The AFP intends to defeat the MILF camp-per-camp, a conventional strategy. While the Bangsamoro mujaheddins plans to defeat the entire force of the GRP through a strategic and protracted guerilla war. 

Problems I see

One sticky issue that could hamper and even affect the outcome of this guerilla war is the on-going internal issues happening within the guerilla organisation. Despite MILF spokesman Eid Kabalu's denials that there is no "animosity" happening between MILF ground commanders and the leadership of Murad, the disparity between his "official statement" and those recently said by MILF Commander Bravo over at ABS-CBN says volumes on the miscommunication between Murad's group and those of his commanders. 

Commander Bravo's statement borders on military engagement while Kabalu's statement echoes the stand of the MILF Central Leadership. It is possible that Murad's group is being "isolated" right now by at least ten field commanders. 

Basis? First, these field commanders oppose any negotiations with the GRP. Even at the start of the negotiations, MILF field commanders have registered their protest, owing to their previous experience talking peace with GRP. This fact belies the statement issued by US Ambassador Kristie Kenney, which cast doubt on the capability of Murad to "bring in the numbers" should a peace settlement really happen. Earlier reports suggest that even if a peace pact is agreed upon by both parties, the probability of assimilating MILF forces into the mainstream remains slim or even nil. 

Second, the opposition of the commanders show how extensive the organisational influence of Islamist thinking among the MILF organisation. Majority of the MILF believes in waging jihad instead of talking peace with these mushrikuns and kafirs. This shows a deeper appreciation of correct Islamic thinking which reminds you of the pervasive influence of Salamat-oriented thinking instead of Murad's. However, I think this thinking has evolved to include JI-oriented thinking, which is more internationalist than Salamat's. 

Losing Murad

There is a possibility that Murad's isolation will be complete in the next few weeks or months. Should Murad lose the MILF leadership, the vacuum would be filled by a more militant leader who'll definitely abandon any peace talks and who'll set his sights on international solidarity. 

A split within the MILF, however, should not be a cause of joy for the GRP. On the contrary, this will show a change in the complexion of the war. 

Likewise, if the GRP thinks that these commanders will just went over the fence and go to Nur Misuari's camp, think again. Indications point to a formation of a new group whose orientation is more on protracted jihad than talking peace. Misuari's influence is not that pervasive nor persuasive. If Misuari thinks that he can still unify the Bangsamoro People under his supposed leadership, he's mistaken. He has been co-opted already and enjoys only a miniscule of support even among the Tausugs.

However, the possibility of two theaters of war exists. The GRP would be battling two fronts: the new organisation of MILF commanders and Misuari's peace army. Oh, include that section of the ASG. 

Next, I will be discussing the widespread implications of this in RP and the region. So, stay tune...