Puno, the Munich Putsch & The Cartagena Talks

Local government secretary Ronnie Puno is supposed to be back from his trip to the States. Malacanang issued a statement saying that Puno went on a medical leave, a clear contradiction with Puno's own statement saying that he'll be there to attend his daughter's wedding. Puno has not been seen in public since a few weeks ago.

What people don't know is Puno was seen hob nobbing with Washington royalty. Who are these men? Members of the former Bush administration and the present one. Where are they connected? They're connected with the State department and the Pentagon. And what were the things they talked about and what were those things which Puno shared with them? That's a secret.

Is Puno on a secret mission to either (1) negotiate with Washington for and on behalf of Mrs. Arroyo or (2) tell all against his boss? If he's there for Mrs. Arroyo, what is that issue that the palace wants to explain to Washington? Well, nagging tongues say it could be about con-ass. Yes, con-ass. Is that the reason why Washington has been using both diplomatic and non-diplomatic channels to send a clear and unequivocal message that they oppose the plan?

And if it's a "tell all", is Puno repeating the mistake of Ping Lacson on the eve of Estrada's demise when the former PNP chief offered himself as an alternative to his boss? Surely, Puno is not that self-absorbed to think that he'll be an acceptable solution to a problem known as Ate Glo.

For sure, whatever it was, it created a big stir inside Washington that Gates, the US defense chief, made doubly sure that they heard it right by sending his own man, CIA chief Leon Panetta, to see for themselves what's happening in this small republic in South East Asia. Maybe Gates thought that his visit was not clear enough for Mrs. Arroyo to understand. Gates and State department head Hillary Clinton were very emphatic--toe the democratic line or else, we will not hesitate to intervene in case. That's clearly what US ambassador Kristie Kenney said last week.

By the way, what's that question I asked a few entries back? What were the things that Jaime Zobel de Ayala and Mrs. Arroyo talked about in Cartagena that were so important, the entire palace entourage had to spend some time there and cause a diversion of the official itinerary? Was it, as some surmise, a talk, nay a negotiation, between civil society and Mrs. Arroyo? Was it a negotiation for Mrs. Arroyo's exit plan? And was Ayala used as the unofficial emissary of Washington to impress the desire of the Obama government for Mrs. Arroyo to "cut and cut cleanly"? And was the reaction of Mrs. Arroyo adverse? Surely shortly after that, bombs went off and bomb threats spread. Are these things Mrs. Arroyo's answer to Washington's attempts to make her think clearly?

Lastly, these things happened very fast, just a few days after the celebrated Teodoro birthday bash, described by some as the Filipino version of a Munich Putsch. Are groups within the palace fighting each other for supremacy? Surely, we really don't know. What's clear is that groups within the AFP and PNP are fighting against each other mainly to impress Madame.

Transparency and Responsibility

I wrote a piece over at FilipinoVoices, urging Malacanang to "come clean" and "be transparent", particularly in the status of Mrs. Arroyo's health. The piece is actually a constructive one, aimed at helping them handle these sensitive image problems that they're encountering.

Sources told me thru email that many of Mrs. Arroyo's closest advisers and operators are leaving the palace. NPR was able to confirm some, particularly the one that involves my former colleague who now works in a business processing firm. He was formerly an undersecretary of Mrs. Arroyo handling the press. I learned from a media friend that he already resigned and went back to the corporate world.

So, what convinced these decent people to leave Mrs. Arroyo? Well, for one, indications point to a "softening" stance inside the palace over plans to extend her term, thanks to relentless efforts made by civil society over charter change and subtle threats which came from political and military personalities.

Simply put, we made her "reconsider" her future plans because we, the People, repulsed her and her forces of evil every step of the way. We showed our disgusts when they pushed for House Resolution 1109. Nearly a hundred thousand people registered against charter change online.

Indications point to Malacanang now doing the "right" thing and it started yesterday when Cerge Remonde revealed the true medical condition of Mrs. Arroyo. We expect similar gestures in the next few months of this administration.

We expect them to come clean by revealing what were the issues discussed during the meeting of Arroyo and Jaime Zobel de Ayala. They also must come clean and reveal if they really have an agenda regarding charter change. Likewise, they should also come clean regarding talks that Malacanang is actually behind the bravado of PMA Class 1978 in contesting sensitive posts in both the AFP and the PNP.

Why is that? Because Malacanang should realize that it has the responsibility of ensuring a smooth transition of power AND make doubly sure that the damage they wrought against institutions of governance remain transitory, not permanent. They still have some months to do just that.

Creeping Authoritarianism, InterElite Wars

Now, let's discuss what's happening to our country now.

As it stands, there are three contending forces in Philippine society and politics right now. All these forces have backing from veritable plutocrats who grew big in the post-authoritarian regime. Let me cite them now:

1. The Cojuangco Bloc

After his exile in the United States shortly after EDSA One, Eduardo "Danding" Cojuangco was avoided by his friends like a plague. Yet, one persevered. His name--Ramon Ang. It was Ang's role in Cojuangco's life that put the former Marcos man back into the corporate limelight.

Ang is Cojuangco's right hand man. An intelligent and highly gifted visionary, Ang helped Cojuangco regained his San Miguel empire. It's an open secret how they managed to do it.

Cojuangco, according to friends, is a savvy businessman with a vicious gut. He plays by the rules yet dishes out decisions that are based on his gut feel. Almost always, he's right.

When the duo turned San Miguel Corporation into a regional beverage powerhouse, that turned Cojuangco's future from just a big man in the Philippines to the most powerful man in the entire region. Before Cojuangco went back as SMC chairman, the Philippine company was stripped of cash. A few years of pivoting the company from dangerous water made it one of the most powerful and the most influential Asian company nowadays.

Now awash with cash, San Miguel Corporation is now diversifying. It is now into energy, infrastructure, real estate, superhighways, mining and telecommunications. It will not be too far off to see it cornering all components of the Philippine state superstructure. Eventually, Danding will be the foremost kingmaker in this country even after Arroyo.

How did SMC do it? Their strategy is very simple--synthesize both the political and corporate world. Danding holds the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) like a fiefdom. He's the recognized power behind the throne. The NPC is just there to protect the interests of San Miguel Corporation from all contending powers. And that includes the Arroyo bloc.

2. The Arroyo Bloc

Rumours about this bloc are stuff of coffee shop talk. Yet, if you look at it, this bloc is the biggest syndicated operation ever to hit the Philippines. They control practically every government transaction, every department of government and even, some legitimate businesses. Now, they are trying to legitimize their setup by forming a huge off-shore investment firm. Based in Hongkong, this investment firm aims to attract foreign partners in their plan to buy Philippine lands. What this firm will do is just serve as conduit of foreign companies and earn from all sides. They will be the ones who'll represent these foreign firms in buying property and will also sell these properties to these foreigners using another dummy, a real estate firm owned reportedly by a close associate of the Arroyos.

Its a fact that this bloc is lapping up properties in Makati left and right. It is no secret that the new building along Ayala Avenue has been sold to this Chinese associate of Arroyo, who owns one of the 4-star hotels in Ortigas Center, Pasig City. There are plans, according to a source who's privy inside this bloc, to buy up more properties since the bloc anticipates the victory of lifting the economic provisions of the Constitution in 2009.

On my next entries...

3. The Ayala-Pangilinan Bloc

4. The Lopez etal bloc

My wife already called for me. We need to buy groceries.