SC affirms Danding's coconut stakes: Noynoy forms team to look into it

Philippine president Benigno Cojuangco Aquino III says government will form a legal team to look into the controversial Supreme Court decision affirming the claims of his uncle, Danding Cojuangco, on his shares in the biggest food conglomerate in Asia, San Miguel Corporation. 

Unlike his wom, who loathes his relative (she most favors Peping instead of Danding), Noynoy is different. He respects his uncle, some even says that he respects him so much, he prefers to be like him.

Now, uncle Danding stands to gain billions and billions from the shares of the coconut farmers at SMC. It is now up to the government to really show its commitment to the cause of coconut farmers by filing an opposition or appeal to this controversial decision.

Aquino, today ended all speculations by doing the right thing--form a team and they will then be asked to make recommendations or immediately file something. It is in the interest of the State to continue pursuing these shares in SMC.

Why Chiz has not announced his candidacy: another "teka-teka" presidentiable in the making?

How true are reports indicating that the reason why Chiz Escudero suspended his announcement last October 12 was that Danding Cojuangco, his main political financier, was still adamant in funding his entire campaign? And that some of his Chinese supporters are reported to have backed out?

Reports are circulating that Danding just had a meeting with Peping Cojuangco for the possibility of supporting Liberal Party candidate Noynoy Aquino. This came days before the very public pronouncement of Danding, saying that he supports no one but the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC), whom he founded.

Rep Mark Cojuangco, son of Danding, in an interview tried to squelch all these reports saying that their party is preparing for a Chiz-Loren tandem and to prove that, Danding is even attending Loren Legarda's public pronouncement in Luneta. Danding did not go. Mark, of course, attended the event, with some NPC officials.

Even Rex Gatchalian, the NPC spokesperson, denies such reports and described them as "rumours". The NPC will be fielding a complete slate in 2010. You can't avoid some people tittle tattling and speculating why is it taking Chiz Escudero so long to declare that he's running. What's taking them so long to formally announce their respective bids? Are they waiting for something?

There is also serious troubles in ChizNation. Senator Serge Osmena just bolted out of Chiz's camp and joined the Liberal Party. Lito Banayo, formerly of the camp of Senator Ping Lacson, is now Chiz's campaign manager.

In an earlier post, Loren Legarda, presumably Chiz's running mate, has just announced her desire to campaign for the vice presidential post. She did so without naming her presidential contender, dampening some of the expectations from the Chiz camp that she'll do so when she announce.

Curiously though, Loren Legarda did her announcement much earlier than Chiz, fuelling speculations that, indeed, there are some "logistical" problems on the part of the ChizNation. And some sources even say that Chiz is really not quite sure of running for the top post because he's afraid of losing it all to Noynoy Aquino.

It seems that we have another "teka-teka" candidate in the persona of Mr. Escudero. Bad form Chiz.

Lakas is now a paper tiger

Allies of the president are transferring to the Nacionalista Party, allegedly part of an "agreement" between Mrs. Arroyo and Senator Manny Villar, President of NP that should Villar win, the new administration will not pursue new cases against the First Couple. An entire block of about 400 local government officials took their oath of allegiance to the NP, destroying the solid support of Eastern Visayas behind Arroyo.

Earlier, LAKAS-KAMPI spokesperson El Rey Villafuerte, a political heavyweight in the Bicol region, also moved his support to the NP while his father, Cong. Luis Villafuerte, continues to recruit supporters for the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC). With rumours that Senator Loren Legarda has already decided to team up with Chiz Escudero, expect NPC chairman Danding Cojuangco to unleash his millions for that crucial win come 2010.

Meanwhile, the Osmenas have decided to throw their support behind Liberal Party candidate Noynoy Aquino, an expected move since the clan maintains very strong ties with the Aquinos and the Lopezes whom everybody knows support the Yellow Army of NoyNoy (wag nang Yellow Fever please. YAN movement na lang, pwdeng Yellow Army of Noynoy or Youth Alliance for Nationalism). The Guingonas have already expressed their support behind Noynoy, with Cong. Teofisto Guingona III running under the LP slate. Other former Aquino allies have already intimated their desire to help Noynoy clinch the presidency.

Now, after Estrada announced his presidency, no news as to how many political supporters the former president have at this point, since some of his previous political associates have either moved to NP or to NPC. Estrada, it seems, only has the JEEP NI ERAP political machinery maintained by Boy Morales. Of course, Cebu, once the bailiwick of Arroyo has been split in half, with some officials going for Erap while others are either for Villar and some decided to stick with whoever is the administration bet.

The administration party, it seems, is the most affected among the political parties. Defections are on-going. Former LAKAS members are shifting allegiances, some going for Villar, others moving to the Cojuangco powered political party. Some analysts say the 49 or so Governors who initially expressed support behind Gilbert Gibo Teodoro have whittled down to half of the number. Congressmen who first expressed their support are also shifting to other parties. This, despite the increasing political popularity of Teodoro, who got 4% of the support votes in an SWS survey, an improvement to the 0.8% he got a month ago.

Presidentiables----Coco Levy Fund is BIG ELECTION ISSUE

For me, this coconut levy fund issue is one BIG ISSUE that needs an IMMEDIATE RESOLUTION. Yes, the issue has been filed in the Supreme Court and the SC, by its decision Republic vs. Sandiganbayan and the latest Cocofed case already AFFIRMED that these shares are PRIMA FACIE public by nature, so the question really is---WHY IS GOVERNMENT STILL NOT CLAIMING THESE SHARES IN ITS ENTIRETY? I mean, the value of these shares amount to P 135 billion, more than enough to rehabilitate the entire Luzon devastated by the typhoon.

You guessed it right---CONTROL. Yep, this issue is an issue about CONTROL of Asia's BIGGEST FOOD AND BEVERAGE COMPANY, SAN MIGUEL CORPORATION.

For the government, these funds are likened to 750 million Damocles' swords hanging above the head of SMC Chairman Danding Cojuangco. The Supreme Court is still under the process of reviewing who really owns these shares of stock, even after twenty three years of litigation.

Now, I ask these fine gentlemen seeking the highest office in the land, this very simple question---WILL THEY CONTINUE THE STRUGGLE OF THE COCONUT FARMERS AND RETRIEVE THESE SHARES IN SAN MIGUEL CORPORATION WITHOUT ENTERING INTO A COMPROMISE AGREEMENT?

A compromise agreement runs counter to the very concept of JUSTICE. Imagine, there is overwhelming evidence linking the conversion of the coco levy fund, from "public" to "private", thereby allowing certain individuals, particularly Mr. Danding Cojuangco and Lobregat, to allegedly use these shares to buy stocks and pieces of properties. Numerous SC decisions already ruled in the people's favor and SUBSTANTIATED PIECES OF EVIDENCE presented by the people on the very NATURE of these shares. Now, what prevents government from dispensing JUSTICE?

Answer----POLITICAL ACCOMMODATION. Yes, government has been under very tight leash because of the perceived POLITICAL STRENGTH OF DANDING COJUANGCO.

Danding heads the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC), a big political party with a very extensive network of local politicians. It has previously aligned itself with Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) of former president Joseph Estrada and is now poised to field its own presidential bet come May 2010.

I ask the NPC presidential bet, namely, Senator Chiz Escudero---what is his stand in relation to the coconut levy fund mess?

I also would like to propound this same question to Senator Noynoy Aquino---will you do a Cory and ask government to go after Mr. Danding Cojuangco?

Same question goes to Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro---will you allow the conversion of these shares and proceed with the compromise agreement, the same way former president Joseph Estrada did when he issued Executive Order 313?

How about Senator Manny Villar? Being an astute businessman, will you also enter into a compromise agreement with Mr. Cojuangco in relation to this issue?

It seems that the resolution of this issue is tied with the May 2010 elections. BIG Money is involved here---more than P 135 billion. One can't prevent himself from asking what is 2 to even 7 billion pesos thrown by Mr. Cojuangco to support a candidate that favors his claim or stake in these shares?

To be able to transform politics, we need to break the monopoly of certain big business interests in the business of governance. Without this, we will not be able to really implement change nor can we be able to really free ourselves from the clutches of trapo politics.

Hence, to those who listen---TRANSFORM POLITICS is simply deconstructing political reality by destroying BIG BUSINESS INTERESTS OVER POLITICS. Transformational leaders are those who will not allow themselves to be co-opted by Big Business. Transformational Leaders, by our standards, are people of the highest integrity who will never compromise the interest of the majority over the vested interests of the elite.

The Coco Levy Funds: Converting the People's Money into Personal Funds

From 1973 to 1982, the Marcos regime required 18 million Filipino coconut farmers to give P 15 pesos as "levy" or tax for every 100 kilograms of copra and coconut products sold by them. The levy now termed as the "coconut levy fund scam" ballooned to P 9.7 billion or roughly P 135 billion as of today. I will not anymore, give a brief background on this, you just have to click on the link here to know more about this issue.

To summarize the more than 20 year struggle of the Filipino coconut farmers, the levy, according to the Presidential Commission on Good Government (PCGG) turned from "public" to "private" during the Marcos regime, allowing some cronies led by Danding Cojuangco to use those funds to purchase shares of stock of major Philippine corporations, among which is the San Miguel Corporation.

On December 2001, the Davide Supreme Court declared these funds as "public", overturning the previous Executive Order 313 of former president Joseph Estrada which declared the funds as "private". In the case Republic vs. Sandiganbayan, the Court declared that the coco levy funds are prima facie public and therefore, right to be given to the government under custodia legis (or legal custody).

The SC decision recognized the initial nature or character of the funds, which were essentially monies dedicated to the development of the coconut industry. Some of these funds, according to the Supreme Court, were used to purchase 750 million common shares of San Miguel Corporation, previously valued at P 135 billion. These common shares represent 24 percent of Asia's biggest food and beverage company.

This 24 percent share is part of the 47 percent share bloc of San Miguel shares sequestered by the PCGG in 1986. In 2004, the Sandiganbayan anti-graft court awarded 27 percent of these disputed shares (now diluted to 24 percent) originally held by 14 companies under the Coconut Industry Investment Fund, a holding company controlled by Danding Cojuangco.

On June 2009, the Philippine government, through Solicitor General and Justice Secretary Agnes Devenadera asked the Supreme Court to allow it to sell the shares it holds in San Miguel Corporation. Let me quote a Sunstar Online news report about this:

“It is undisputed that there has been a substantial depreciation in the stock market of said shares and one way by which the value of said shares may be preserved is their immediate sale at premium price and the proceeds of which shall be deposited in an escrow account,” she said.



Devanadera said that while it is unfortunate that Top Frontier Investment Holdings Inc. has withdrawn its offer to purchase the subject shares, the government is obliged to pursue its sale having been declared by the Sandiganbayan as owned by the government in trust for all the coconut farmers.


“Despite Top Frontier Investment Holdings Inc.’s withdrawal of the offer to purchase the CIIF SMC shares, respondent (Republic of the Philippine Philippines) explores the feasibility of selling the subject CIIF SMC shares under terms and conditions most advantageous to the government,” she added.


Top Frontier had earlier offered to buy the sequestered SMC shares in the names of 14 holding companies of the Coconut Industry Investment Fund (CIIF) in the amount of P56.5 billion.


The firm was compelled to withdraw their offer to purchase due to the recession and economic slowdown and the extreme difficulty to raise the substantial funds needed to purchase the subject CIIF SMC shares.


Cocofed, in its manifestation, told the SC that there are other parties who have expressed interest in acquiring the subject said.


Earlier, former Senators Jovito Salonga and Wigberto Tanada have asked the High Court to compel officials of SMC to explain whether the reported reduction of P54 billion coconut levy funds was due to the company’s series of business ventures.


Salonga and Tanada said the SMC should explain the funding sources and other commitments made by SMC involving its new acquisitions such as the Meralco and Petron shares, the reported venture into water via the Laiban Dam Project as well as into telecommunications via Qatar Telecom and even in mining.


They further claimed that Cocofed does not truly represent the interest of some 3.5 million coconut farmers who should be the beneficiaries of the sale of sequestered SMC shares.


Cocofed earlier claimed that they are the “true and actual beneficiaries” of the multibillion-peso coco levy funds.


Salonga, a former chairman of the Presidential Commission on Good Government, an agency tasked to oversee the recovery of the alleged ill-gotten wealth of the Marcos family and their cronies, insisted that the coconut farmers need to be apprised of how their claims for the coco levy funds would be affected by the SMC’s business forays.


He also asked the SC to turn down the motion of Cocofed seeking the approval of the proposed sale of the subject SMC shares.


The former lawmaker said that even the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) has not accredited Cocofed as the legitimate national organization of coconut farmers.


In its motion to approve the proposed sale of the SMC shares, Cocofed said it is compelled to agree to the sale of the sequestered shares due to the continued depreciation in the stock market of SMC shares.


However, Salonga said the sale of the 753,848,312 shares should not be below P56.53 billion or an average price of P75 per share and that it should be sold to Top Frontier, which offered to purchase the SMC shares in its letter dated April 28, 2008 to Cocofed.


The PCGG has earlier announced that it intended to sell the SMC shares in a public auction, the proceeds from which will be used by government to rehabilitate the coconut industry.


Likewise among the sequestered assets are the UCPB shares of stock in six firms, namely: the United Coconut Planters Life Assurance Co., Cagayan de Oro Oil Company Inc. (Cagoil), Granexport Manufacturing Corporation (Granex), Iligan Coconut Industries Inc. (ILICOCO), Legaspi Oil Company Inc. (Legoil), and Southern Luzon Coconut Oil Mill Inv. (Solcom). (ECV/Sunnex)

On September 4, 2009, Jovito Salonga, former PCGG chair filed a motion to intervene to the Petition filed by the Solicitor General. The government filed its counter.

THIRTEEN DAYS LATER, under the tutelage of Chief Justice Reynato Puno, the Supreme Court in its decision dated September 17, 2009 (GR. No. 177857-58) says that:

"WHEREFORE, the Court APPROVES the conversion of the 753,848,312 SMC Common Shares registered in the name of CIIF companies to SMC SERIES 1 PREFERRED SHARES of 753,848,312, the converted shares to be registered in the names of CIIF companies in accordance with the terms and conditions specified in the conversion offer set forth in SMC’s Information Statement and appended as Annex “A” of COCOFED’s Urgent Motion to Approve the Conversion of the CIIF SMC Common Shares into SMC Series 1 Preferred Shares. The preferred shares shall remain in custodia legis and their ownership shall be subject to the final ownership determination of the Court. Until the ownership issue has been resolved, the preferred shares in the name of the CIIF companies shall be placed under sequestration and PCGG management.The net dividend earnings and/or redemption proceeds from the Series 1 Preferred Shares shall be deposited in an escrow account with the Land Bank of the Philippines or the Development Bank of the Philippines."

What does this mean?

First, the Supreme Court upheld its earlier decisions, declaring these shares as under the legal custodianship of the PCGG.

Second, the SC did not rule with finality on the ownership issue and let it pend.

Lastly, it approved of the conversion of said shares from being "common" to "preferred" thereby allowing its sale. The sale, according to the SC will prevent the further diminution of the values of the shares. The peg price per share is valued at 75 pesos per share.

Now, who benefits from this decision?

IN his article, " Who won?" Charlie Avila, national chair of the Philippine Association of Small Coconut Farmers’ Organizations (formerly the National Federation of Small Coconut Farmers’ Organizations) said that Danding Cojuangco and the SMC board clearly won because it allows them to take further control of these shares for their personal fiduciary benefit. Secondly, Avila avered that the Philippine government also benefitted from this conversion since the dividend earnings of the shares will be put under escrow and taken cared of by the PCGG. And lastly, the coconut farmers who will benefit from the annual P 1 billion dividend earnings made thru these shares.

What the public does not know is, conversion of these SMC common shares into preferred shares would allow Danding and the Board to take full control of the beverage and food giant because the people's representatives thru the PCGG will not be able to exercise voting rights in the SMC board. Meaning, government loses its voice over SMC, thereby freeing Danding Cojuangco and the SMC board from government intervention.

Coconut farmers opposed the conversion because for them it "reeks of political accommodation."

Citing the dissenting opinion of Associate Justice Conchita Carpio-Morales, Omi Royandoyan, chairman of Centro Saka said, by allowing the conversion of these shares, the government, ipso facto, “surrenders its final arsenal in combating the maneuverings to frustrate the recovery of ill-gotten wealth." Likewise, the decision practically shows that the High Tribunal reversed itself from its earlier decision which struck down the conversion of these shares into treasury bonds.

The Spectre of a Proxy President looms

The opposition is in disarray. They are fighting amongst themselves. The specter of a proxy president looms in the horizon.

What is preventing NPC Senator Chiz Escudero from formally declaring his bid for the presidency? Sources say, it's former president Joseph Estrada who reportedly asked his good friend, Danding Cojuangco a big favor. Cojuangco already publicized his response---he will support whoever his party, the NPC, wants as their presidential bet. And Chiz is it.

Chiz is a formidable opponent because he has the backing of the Tsinoy community as well as Danding's group.

Yet, there are talks that Loren Legarda wants to cross parties and partner up with Erap. Not a good move at this point. Legarda should stay with the NPC since she has a better chance of winning this time, with Kabayan Noli de Castro out of the picture. De Castro, as some friends say, is going back to broadcasting.

Meanwhile, the Noynoy-Mar camp is, as some alleged, self-destructing. Their relief operations went haywire. Some groups are reportedly frustrated over the seemingly "secretive" way the Liberal Party is managing Noynoy's campaign. Talks about Noynoy meeting Erap and Danding are beginning to affect the morale of volunteers within Noynoy's camp, especially those belonging to the reform groups.

Villar, as some alleged, is slowly running out of funds.

And organizers within all their parties are engaged in mini turf wars, not good for the reform movement.

Over at the administration camp, things are slowly being organized behind Gibo. Gibo's presence in all those affected flood prone areas will find its mark in the surveys.

The key to this is the NORTH. Whoever makes himself big or bigger in the rehab efforts in the North will clinch the presidency. And it seems that, for the meantime, the administration is shoring up some points.

Noynoy Aquino's supporters talk with Danding Cojuangco---WHY?

When Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino went up the stage and accepted the nomination of the Liberal Party for him to become its standard bearer, he categorically stated that he'll run like a non-trapo. Meaning, he will not wheel deal, the same way trapos do come election time. He will not compromise the People's Agenda for change. He campaigns for principles and a non-trapo never goes to bed with former Marcos cronies or former grafters.

Yet, it's surprising why Noynoy right now is being seen confering with former president Joseph Estrada or allowing his supporters to talk with Danding Cojuangco. In fact, in that very same Inquirer article, Noynoy is quoted of having said that he expects talks with the Cojuangco camp to continue. Same expectation with that of Estrada's camps.

That I sincerely do not understand. If Noynoy is indeed strong, why compromise? If Noynoy and his Liberals have the numbers, then, why talk with cronies and businessmen with political ambitions? Is'nt enough for Noynoy to have a Mar Roxas y Araneta beside him? Why go to Danding and explore talks? Is Noynoy afraid of Chiz Escudero?

This is very dangerous. If Noynoy and his supporters behave this way, and at this early juncture, what kind of compromises did they enter themselves into? We simply don't know. What other compromises did they agree with Cojuangco or other political kingmakers whom they already met? And why do they need to talk to these people?

Are the people not enough for Noynoy to make him win?

Cojuangco is True Philippine Shaker

San Miguel Corporation, led by former Marcos crony Eduardo Danding Cojuangco just entrenched themselves deeper into Lopez territory. Cojuangco is poised to take over Meralco, the Lopezes' crown jewel. Analysts say Cojuangco may do this anytime he wants to. Cojuangco's trusted lieutenant Mon Ang just assured the Lopez family that they will not be left holding an empty bag since they could still nominate a member of their family to the board of Directors of Meralco.



Aside from the Lopezes, the Ayalas are now being threatened by the rising influence and presence of San Miguel in other industries. San Miguel just joined the telecommunications industry with the acquisition of Liberty Telecommunications and a joint beneficial partnership with Qatar Telecomms. That move made San Miguel easily the second biggest telecommunications firm, eclipsing even Globe Telecommunications. The move was so good and so swift, it left Gerard Ablaza clueless for months.



San Miguel also entered the energy sector industry, with the majority takeover of Petron. San Miguel also brought a majority interest in the power generation sector.



So, you see, my friends, San Miguel is the biggest business conglomerate in this country, controlling almost all levers of economic life and enjoying the biggest and the widest economic influence not seen since the 19th century.



Now, Cojuangco knows that one wrong move could dissipate all of these things. His rivals will never equal his business acumen.



The only way left for Cojuangco's jealous rivals to dislodge him as the Country's Shaker Giant is simple---launch a coup. Only a coup can change the present political and business configurations. Elections are so unwieldy, so costly and so unpredictable that some businessmen rivals of Cojuangco are thinking of another alternative.



Being a pragmatist though, Cojuangco knows that all of these things are temporary since his bosom protectors, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and her very accommodating businessman husband, Mike Arroyo are leaving in a few months time.



An unfriendly government post-2010 is a very serious security threat to him and his San Miguel. That's why he'll make the heavens quake and the earth shake with a candidate that could preserve the gains of San Miguel.



Enter Cheez Escudero and Loren Legarda, two of Cojuangco's bets for the top executive posts. Now, what would frustrate Cojuangco's plans?



A coup. A true revolution.



This explains why those " RAM boys" were seen with Gloria at the EDSA Uno celebrations. They'll now poised as a "counter-revolutionary" force against the True Patriots of the New Generation.



Let me re-phrase what I wrote some entries ago--they are not there as Gloria's praetorian guards. No.



They were there to ensure that Gloria finishes her term. If a coup happens and ousts Gloria from power, Cojuangco is sure to follow. Ika nga, naging magkapusod na ang dalawa--isa taga Tarlac, isa naman Pampanga.



Maybe, a coup will be used here in the Philippines as a business tool rather than a political tool. Will we see this in our lifetime? Maybe. Maybe not. Let's see in the coming weeks.

2010 Configurations--Bayani's pink slip, Loren's party, and Cheez Whiz

Sources from the administration confirmed the marriage of KAMPI, the administration political party and the Nationalist People's Coalition of former Ambassador Danding Cojuangco. This marriage, it seems, cements the political component of the Cojuangco-Arroyo-Ongpin cabal. And in all likelihood, this strong party, will field as a common candidate two names: Senators Loren Legarda and Cheez Escudero.

Yesterday, Senator Legarda already announced her willingness to run as president during her birthday party in Tondo. The birthday party has all the trappings of a campaign, with the pompoms, the free clinics, free food sans the wines and spirits that attends every Loren Legarda b-day party. When asked if she's willing to run as president, Legarda said that she's ready.

This is not all surprising considering that Loren has been going around the country, attending all these annual festivals and fiestas, even going to funerals all around the Philippines (heard that she did that in Vigan, Ilocos Sur). Loren wants to be president and her strong showing at the surveys could very well justify her intention.

However, what is NOT BEING REPORTED is the fact that Cheez Escudero topped the newest and recent surveys. Escudero is now at the number one spot, followed by Legarda, Noli, Villar, Roxas and a host of others. Expectedly, Chief Justice Puno is part of the bottom rung.

So, we have a situation here which the NPC should resolve---who between Escudero and Legarda will Cojuangco annoint as party standard bearer? Those allied with Mrs. Arroyo says that it will be Escudero who will asked to head the presidential campaign. However, what about Legarda who told a reporter yesterday that it's the presidency or nothing?

Was Legarda just bluffing? Probably not. Legarda's plan is linked with the expected candidacy of Vice President Noli de Castro. Legarda wants a second round with Kabayan. And she does'nt relish the scenario of playing second fiddle to a Kabayan presidency.

Are we seeing the first of a series of party dissension? If Legarda will not accede to Escudero, the NPC-KAMPI coalition might find themselves on the losing end come 2010.

By the way, I think in the bitter end, Escudero will just give way to Legarda since he's a few years shy of the constitutional qualification for president.

So, expect a Legarda-Escudero combination for NPC-KAMPI.

Question---what now, Kabayang Noli de Castro?

There are two options for Independent Kabayan---either give way to the courtship of Lakas as standard bearer or do it alone. Some sectors in Kabayan's camp are cold to Lakas while entertaining a merger with a slowly weakening Nacionalista camp. Since it's now evident that NPC has already went to bed with Kampi, this puts Noli in a bind.

Which party will Noli align himself with? He could probably make some overtures with NPC and KAMPI just to frustrate the ambitions of his nemesis, the Lady Legarda and try to spoil the brew there. Or he could stay independent and court some financial backers to support a new party ala what FVR did in 1992. This could prove beneficial to Noli given that in a clean elections, he stands a pretty good chance of clinching the top spot, given his strong showing at the surveys. However, for him to really get the top gun, he must play politics prior to the second half of this year. He must make some overtures to Legarda's backers and strike a deal that will probably leave Legarda in the lurch. He could still do that, given that majority thinks that Noli is winnable or at least have a fighting chance to get the presidency instead of Loren.

If all these fail, however, Noli can still align with Villar for a possible tandem. Heard that Lakas has teamed up with the Nacionalista and Villar is ready to give in to Kabayan as a compromise. So, in a Lakas-Nacionalista alliance, surely the winnable team is a Kabayan-Villar tandem.

So, this leaves Mr. Mar Roxas. What to do with him though?

Observers note that Senator Roxas could suffer the fate of his idol, the former Senate President Jovy Salonga. Yes, he has the financial muscle. Yes, he is charismatic. Yes, he has strength of organisation. However, what he is not, though, is this---he is still being lumped together with trapos like Villar, Escudero and Loren. He's not doing enough to differentiate himself from the motley crue.

Since we see a possible four presidential teamup, the winner will definitely be the one who'll successfully position himself as a maverick. Roxas still has the time to do this. His standings at the surveys are not plateau-ing, unlike Villar's. He still has a fighting chance. However, what he needs to do is continue positioning himself as a change agent rather than a rabble rouser. He needs to back up his anti-Arroyo statements with positive propositions. Meaning, the public would rather hear him talk about what to do with this mess rather than just rant.

In such a convoluted scenario, Roxas will have a hard time looking for a suitable partner. Obviously, a Roxas-Villar tandem will not work since it both pits two strong personalities together and in the realm of perceptions, a marriage of two traditional political parties.

Roxas might go the route of Roco who got a veritable unknown as tandem, only to lose and get the lowest rank in the elections. Most probably, Roxas might team up with a candidate to be fielded by the opposition camp, namely either from UNO or PMP. That candidate could either be Makati mayor Jejomar Binay or could even possibly be Gordon, should he jump ship this early and position himself more as independent rather than administration-dependent.

And there there is this joker, MMDA Bayani Fernando.

This loser of a dreamer still wants either the vice presidential post or a senator invitation. The problem is, even in the senatorial surveys, Fernando is faring VERY, VERY LOW. Inspite of his obvious tactic of gunning for the top spot and try to just run for the senate, Fernando's trust ratings are quite low. Yes, he's one---one percent vote. This one percent represents those who has dictatorial or Hitlerian mentality, those who dreams of pink, a shade of red. Clerics who try to write intellectual but does not understand even an iota of philosophy, subscribes and worships Fernando, probably finding him an iconic figure representing their repressed feelings while inside the seminary. Their pink slips are showing everytime Bayani fumbles. They try to disinfect Fernando's pseudo-Bayani antics to no avail. People are finding it simply too hard to re-imagine Bayani Fernando simply because no one could ever change a moronic and weak minded colorful chap like him.

Or, better yet, there's a solution. Bayani should fire his publicist.

Arroyo-Danding Honeymoon over?

What is this? There's an apparent breakdown of the "uneasy" alliance between Danding Cojuangco and the Arroyos? After their celebrated alliance late last year, it seems that the honeymoon phase is finally over?

Reports say that government is trying to revive the mouthballed coco levy case. It seems that government is trying to revive one of eight coco levy cases already dismissed by the Sandiganbayan last November. Is this for real?

Or maybe Malacanang heard of the Lakas effort at creating the NPC desk within the party? Nacionalista Party to follow suit to create a stronger Lakas party enroute to 2010? What will happen to Kampi?

Or, maybe, just maybe, this alleged government effort is just for show?

Creeping Authoritarianism, InterElite Wars

Now, let's discuss what's happening to our country now.

As it stands, there are three contending forces in Philippine society and politics right now. All these forces have backing from veritable plutocrats who grew big in the post-authoritarian regime. Let me cite them now:

1. The Cojuangco Bloc

After his exile in the United States shortly after EDSA One, Eduardo "Danding" Cojuangco was avoided by his friends like a plague. Yet, one persevered. His name--Ramon Ang. It was Ang's role in Cojuangco's life that put the former Marcos man back into the corporate limelight.

Ang is Cojuangco's right hand man. An intelligent and highly gifted visionary, Ang helped Cojuangco regained his San Miguel empire. It's an open secret how they managed to do it.

Cojuangco, according to friends, is a savvy businessman with a vicious gut. He plays by the rules yet dishes out decisions that are based on his gut feel. Almost always, he's right.

When the duo turned San Miguel Corporation into a regional beverage powerhouse, that turned Cojuangco's future from just a big man in the Philippines to the most powerful man in the entire region. Before Cojuangco went back as SMC chairman, the Philippine company was stripped of cash. A few years of pivoting the company from dangerous water made it one of the most powerful and the most influential Asian company nowadays.

Now awash with cash, San Miguel Corporation is now diversifying. It is now into energy, infrastructure, real estate, superhighways, mining and telecommunications. It will not be too far off to see it cornering all components of the Philippine state superstructure. Eventually, Danding will be the foremost kingmaker in this country even after Arroyo.

How did SMC do it? Their strategy is very simple--synthesize both the political and corporate world. Danding holds the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) like a fiefdom. He's the recognized power behind the throne. The NPC is just there to protect the interests of San Miguel Corporation from all contending powers. And that includes the Arroyo bloc.

2. The Arroyo Bloc

Rumours about this bloc are stuff of coffee shop talk. Yet, if you look at it, this bloc is the biggest syndicated operation ever to hit the Philippines. They control practically every government transaction, every department of government and even, some legitimate businesses. Now, they are trying to legitimize their setup by forming a huge off-shore investment firm. Based in Hongkong, this investment firm aims to attract foreign partners in their plan to buy Philippine lands. What this firm will do is just serve as conduit of foreign companies and earn from all sides. They will be the ones who'll represent these foreign firms in buying property and will also sell these properties to these foreigners using another dummy, a real estate firm owned reportedly by a close associate of the Arroyos.

Its a fact that this bloc is lapping up properties in Makati left and right. It is no secret that the new building along Ayala Avenue has been sold to this Chinese associate of Arroyo, who owns one of the 4-star hotels in Ortigas Center, Pasig City. There are plans, according to a source who's privy inside this bloc, to buy up more properties since the bloc anticipates the victory of lifting the economic provisions of the Constitution in 2009.

On my next entries...

3. The Ayala-Pangilinan Bloc

4. The Lopez etal bloc

My wife already called for me. We need to buy groceries.

Analysis of the Political Situation: The Businessmen

The influential Makati Business Club (MBC) already announced that they are also taking part in the December 12 interfaith rally. MBC spokesman Bertie Lim said that businessmen are sick and tired of what's happening and they'll go "all out" come December 12. Of course, if it's the MBC already talking, then, by deduction, the big Ayala-Zobel group is already there. And you know how things turn when this group is already in the picture. We saw the Ayalas on stage when Gloria the Pretender was being sworn into office by former Chief Justice Hilarion Davide. Now, if the MBC is there, surely the Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) will not be very far behind.

Now, we have'nt heard of the Philippine Chinese-Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCCI) which is being influenced by Chinese tycoon Lucio Tan. We all know where Tan stands politically. Tan is a close friend of this administration and there's no way for him to go to the other side. Likewise, the Concepcions, Yulos and garments tycoon Dee are known Arroyo allies. Even the Filipino-Chinese Business Club would dare not to oppose Arroyo. In fact, the very head of this Club revels of his enormous connection with the First Couple, being "allegedly" instrumental in ousting Estrada.

What about the Lopezes and Manny Pangilinan of PLDT? Obviously, some would say that the Lopezes would oppose Gloria and would probably take part, albeit, in the backroom. Yet, there are some insinuations that a deal was forged between Gabby Lopez and the first Couple in Hongkong. It involves the Lopez crown jewel, Meralco. Now, we are not privy to their talks and again, I don't want to speculate. But, there are deafening buzz about the Lopezes allegedly selling themselves out.

Pangilinan, meanwhile, is really not a political guy, but if push comes to shove, we may yet see him, again within the inner circle of the business powers in the likes of the Ayalas and the Cojuangcos. Oh, speaking about Danding Cojuangco. Danding's political machine, the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) has now merged with the Lakas faction of JDV-FVR and you know where that faction stands at this point. So, count Danding in.

Like in previous socio-political upheavals, the likes of SM's Henry Sy, Jollibee Group's Tankathiongs and others would just be fence-sitters. Having no big stake in government transactions, these groups are well entrenched already and it does'nt concern them if this government falls or not. Regardless of who heads this big syndicate called government, these tycoons would not dare rock the boat for fear of future reprisals. This, usually, is the attitude of Chinese businessmen in the Philippines. Politics, for them, is not within the business agenda.

Now, if you see, it seems that there's a stronger force against Gloria at this point. Eventhough Gloria has her Tan, Concepcion, Yulos and Dees, these will not be enough to counter the formidable business alliance ranged against her. Tan is actually a weak component in Gloria's corporate group. Tan is known to have a pragmatic approach to politics. If one or some of these businessmen see that the winds are changing and it's not going the way to Gloria, we may yet see a silent entourage of businessmen going to the other side and striking deals left and right with the Anti-Arroyo group.

GMA as destabilizer? Threat of Terrorism

After GMA left for Switzerland yesterday, AFP Chief of Staff Esperon, PNP Chief Razon, DOJ Secretary cRaul(o) Gonzales, Defense Secretary Danding Cojuangco, err Secretary pamangkin of the biggest Marcos crony and even InSecurity Adviser Gonzales immediately downgraded the threat alert they have announced a few days ago. The lapdogs said, there's no more threat, no more destabilization.

Hehehe. So, GMA is the destabilizer? For these people, you need to read between the lines.

What these idiots want us to believe--if GMA is here, there's always a threat of destabilization. If GMA is out, there's none. What a way to send a message to their boss.

Seriously, my media colleagues should NOT, I say again, should NOT be a party to the pronouncements of this group of lapdogs. I mean, doing so, we make ourselves a party to their foolishness. These people have no hiya anymore. I mean, if they have at least some semblance of hiya, they would not spread these rumours around like they're gospel truth.

This is what I am saying.

IF THE PHILIPPINES HAVE THESE KINDS OF MILITARY AND SECURITY OFFICIALS, IT SHOWS YOU HOW INEPT THIS GOVERNMENT IS IN THE FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM.

FOR THE US, THIS IS MY MESSAGE: YOU SHOULD URGE THE PHILIPPINE GOVERNMENT TO REPLACE THESE PEOPLE. WHY? BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO CREDIBILITY ANYMORE. WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW? THE PEOPLE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS GOVERNMENT ANYMORE. WHAT IF A LEGITIMATE AND SERIOUS TERRORIST ACTIVITY HAPPENS IN THE PHILIPPINES AND THEY ANNOUNCE IT, THE PEOPLE WILL THINK TWICE OR EVEN THRICE IN BELIEVING THEM. AND IT WOULD AFFECT INTELLIGENCE-GATHERING SINCE INTEL AGENTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING CREDIBLE AND A-1 INFORMATION REGARDING THE INCIDENT.

This is what I am saying. If the US government wants to solve the global terrorist problem and prevent it from spreading and infecting their own country, they should have a strong ally against terror here in the Philippines. Obviously, this is NOT the case here.