Conditions are ripe for a coup; JDV stands to lose everything

Manolo may not believe that a coup is imminent but I say again, the conditions which justify a military takeover exist. Compared with 1989, 1990, 2004 and 2006, the present conditions are ripe for a government run by military leaders. It may not be apparent, given that "mutinous" soldiers, as what Manolo wrote in his blog: www.quezon.ph, submitted themselves to the legal processes, nonetheless, the "acts" being shown right now by the United Forces and the rebel detainees bear uncanny, pre-conceived actions.

Today, the officers being tried walked out of their hearing, in defiance with the way they are being treated in the court martial.(see Ellen Tordesillas blog). Legislators who filed an impeachment complaint against Arroyo also walked out of the justice committee hearings. These are, obviously, symbolic acts of defiance which is expected to lead into something more than merely walking out of "illegal" proceedings. It shows that people are manifesting overt acts of dissent. These pockets of resistance do not happen overnight. These are planned actions.

Do I believe that these actions are just "isolated", "autonomous" incidents? No. Do I believe that their actions are in someway connected and coordinated? Yes. The mere fact that these groups operated under the new name "United Forces", says much about the solid desire of the people behind them (especially those financing these actions) to really oust Arroyo.

I do agree with one observation of Manolo though that Arroyo might survive all these events and course smoothly to 2010. This may happen for three (3) reasons: First, groups fail to create conditions necessary for the growth of a critical mass. Doronila is right in saying that there is no critical mass at this point. Yet, we can't discount the possibility that, days or weeks right now, a critical mass might develop. At this point, acts of the United Forces fail to animate the emotions of even the middle classes. What do these things indicate? In a traditional purview, it may mean that people are tired of going and marching to EDSA. As I've said, surveys show that people are quite tired of the constitutional, EDSA way that they would welcome an extra-constitutional means of ousting Arroyo.

Second, rebels fail to court a sizeable number of "recruits" to stage an act of defiance among military ranks. Do we see a repeat of a "We Belong" at the PMA this homecoming? Maybe. Or maybe not. It depends whether there are still idealists within the Academy who have the "balls" so to speak to do what their predecessors did in 1985. Lastly, if traditional politicians decide not to join these actions. Its unfortunate that Senators Escudero and Cayetano continue keeping their silence despite what Philippine Star columnist Willy Esposo described our situation as "pre Civil War" times. Escudero and Cayetano are still "star-struck" so to speak; still overjoyed by their "victories". Or, to make a better description, still in rapture on their success in deceiving the people. Those who speak out now comes from unexpected politicians--Roxas and Pangilinan--who were previously accused of being pro-Arroyo.

Arroyo's fate now depends on how weak or how strong her enemies are at the moment. These groups need a new strategy to oust Arroyo. If they use the old EDSA formula, they may not succeed in what they want. Worst, they may lose momentum because their ranks remain weak.

If these groups procrastinate and fail to seize the moment, they may yet see a stronger GMA emerging from the seige unscathed. A stronger GMA might not entertain the idea of giving up power come 2010. This is a very strong possibility given the posturings being shown by Arroyo and the acts being done by her allies especially in Congress and in the business community.

If this happens, I say to the soldiers detained there in Tanay--kiss your liberties goodbye. I also say these to the groups opposing GMA--be prepared to lose a sizeable chunk of your constituencies and prepared to be dispensable, powerless, and irrelevant groups next year until 2010.

JDV is the loser

As I wrote in previous entries, the clear loser of all of these is JDV. JDV stands to lose everything not because of his son but because of his own wrongdoing. He remains a fool, compromising his strong position and continuing to support his enemy. Look at what he did today at the WBC convention. The video of ABS-CBN says it all--JDV sat miles apart GMA. Yet, when the media interviewed him, he told them the say trapo way of courtsying GMA. What a dumb move. GMA's allies are attacking him left and right, her operators slowly destroying him in Congress, yet, JDV remains unresponsive. JDV is certain to lose the speakership. And this is NOT a ruse. Events have shown that actions are being taken to isolate and weaken JDV. If JDV does not act now, he will surely lose the speakership to Fuentebella, a known Danding crony.

Winners

I say again, JDV is out. If reports are true that the reason why the tripartite groups of GMA, FVR and JDV agreed to keep their coalition intact was the promise of GMA to assist FVR and JDV to a transition from presidential to parliamentary, the two elders should be ready to lose their shirts. GMA does not have the will to court widespread revolt if she tries this. I say this again, GMA is not ready to rock the boat further by forcing the parliamentary proposition to the people. It would be foolhardy for the two Pangalatoks to trust GMA to do this. The obvious winners now, in 2010 and even in post-2010 will surely be Kampi, GMA and FG. Mark my word.