Aquino's Cabinet picks

President Noynoy Aquino says his present communication group will replace the Office of the Press Secretary. Ricky Carandang, ANC anchorperson and a highly respected member of the Philippine media is being touted as the head of the communication group so therefore, Carandang is probably our new Press secretary.

Manolo Quezon is also said to be the inaugural spokesperson but it is unknown what post will the historian/blogger/columnist and TV host will get under the Aquino administration. His friends and colleagues over at the Black and White Movement have already been posted in several posts, foremost of which is Atty. Ed Lacierda who now will act as Presidential spokesperson. Leah Navarro, a leading light in the anti-Arroyo movement, is reportedly offered the Presidential Management Staff (PMS) post. Vic "Emong" Emano was Aquino's New Media head and Emong's fate is still unknown.

There are strong indications that the highly creative and effective Maria Montelibano of the Samar group will be appointed as head of the Philippine Information Agency (PIA). This is a promotion for Montelibano who was very effective in handling Aquino's propaganda machinery during the elections. Montelibano used to head Malacanang RTV during the time of Cory and once helped in crafting the Aquino communications plan.

Cesar Purisima, one of Aquino's contributors, is also certain to get the Trade portfolio (or even the Finance?) while Jesse Robredo of the Kaya Natin Movement and a long-time mayor of Naga City (Ramon Magsaysay awardee) will head the DILG, which is really the best pick for the job.

Robredo does not have any presidential ambitions so he will probably devote all of his time developing and enhancing the local government structure. This will be best for the country.

Dingky Soliman, as previously announced, will re-assume her DSWD post, while Teresita Deles, will be the administration's presidential peace adviser, a post which she is really accustomed to. Deles used to be the presidential anti-poverty commissioner under Arroyo.

Romulo is said to be among 4 contenders for the Foreign affairs post. A group composed of Liberal party members led by chairman emeritus Jovito Salonga is said to be campaigning for Hilario Davide, the Chief Justice popular for that very controversial decision legitimizing the administration of Arroyo.

Another critical post, the Department of Tourism has at least five names, including that of Jim Paredes of the APO Hiking Society and Andy Bautista, a highly respected name in the Tourism industry.

Noli de Castro, reports say, has been offered a post in the Aquino administration. He declined and said that he is coming back (with a vengeance) to broadcasting. Kudos to Kabayan!

Outgoing PMS chief Len Bautista-Horn says there are about 50,000 posts that would be left vacant come June 30, 10% of these are executive posts. Aquino and the search committee must be extremely cautious in effecting changes especially in the critical departments. As early as now, there are several reports which I got from highly placed sources saying that there are "long-time" operators angling for several posts in some agencies of government. The search committee must be very very circumspect in reviewing the records of these operators.

Vice president Jojo Binay really prefers the DILG posts for obvious reasons--he wants to institutionalize what he did in Makati. And one of those things he wants is simply institutionalize his reported penchant for condominium units. Rumours say that Binay reportedly ask for several condo units from developers in exchange for permits. How true?

There is a group, some coffee shop habitues say, that is gathering graft cases against Binay.

Vibal Foundation, two awesome books and Manolo's great article today

I heard that www.poc.net will continue on, thanks to Vibal Foundation. Vibal Foundation should be praised for its active promotion of online journalism. It is one of the pioneers in political blogging. It is trailblazing the way for other companies to support bloggers like me. Let us support Vibal Foundation for keeping alive the spirit of blogging here in the Philippines.

(By the way, this photo here, shows me and friend John Tronco during the SLAMAT LORRD party. I'm the one with the glasses, stupid!)

Two things--I'm off to a meeting today in Katipunan. Before I do so, let me share with you a very nice article written by my friend, Manolo Quezon III. This article, I believe, is best read by those close to president-elect Noynoy Aquino. I just pray that they avoid the pitfalls of "clientelism" which infected previous administrations. Thanks Manolo for this piece.

Oh, by the way, I have two books which I hope to publish within the next few days. The first one, " Istorya: Essays of a Pot-bellied rebel turned blogger" is an anthology of historical essays. Great read I must say. I hope to publish it thru an e-book format and in regular size octovo form book.

The other one, " How to diffuse a PR Crisis in Just 3 Days" will also be published both in e-book and in regular size. If there are interested publishers out there, just contact me.

Anyway, here's Manolo's great article today published sa Philippine Daily Inquirer

The Long View


A more balanced Philippines
By Manuel L. Quezon III
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:23:00 06/07/2010
Filed Under: Politics

LET me tackle the presentation by Dr. Mark Thompson during the roundtable on presidential elections in the Philippines, held last May 28 in Berlin, Germany. In “Cleaving Clientelism,” he approached the recently concluded election from the perspective of the dominant type of politics practiced here, which is clientelism. Coined in the 1970s from the Italian “clientelismo,” the dictionary defines it as “a social order that depends upon relations of patronage; in particular, a political approach that emphasizes or exploits such relations.”

In the Philippine context, Thompson characterizes clientelism as revolving around material or immaterial inducements/attachments to gain support; pyramidal networks based on kinship, patronage, vote-buying, coercion; and involving transactional voting behavior. Clientelism, he says, can be extremely divisive, as seen in the Philippines and Thailand, as transactional politics polarizes both the political players (as those outside the ruling circle are punished) and the public (since the normal emphasis of politics on compromise is deliberately ignored).

In contrast to this “politics of the normal,” Thompson proposes that what clashed in the campaign were reformism, represented by Aquino and Teodoro, and populism, represented by Estrada and Villar. These two approaches served to cleave, or split, the electorate along natural lines. These lines lead to lasting political divisions. These cleavages, in turn, can be polarizing, too: most particularly when along class or ethnic lines, the stuff of which civil wars and revolutions are made. But they can also lead to stability as clear divisions can end up clearly resolved, with the winning side (a social movement or a winning party) deriving a mandate society as a whole respects and adapts to. He points to Europe and North America, Brazil and Chile, and India and Indonesia as examples.

Reformism, according to him, is a “bourgeois” political narrative, has a media-based campaign strategy, is not based on clientelist political networks, and relies on voter appeals on messages like “Vote for me because I am good” or “I will not steal”: essentially a promise to govern in the national, not personal interest. Thompson points out this had broad appeal across classes, but is particularly attractive to the clergy, urban reform activists and the middle class and globalized business.

In the Philippine context, it originated with Rizal and the ilustrados; was continued by “Great Dissenters” such as Juan Sumulong (Aquino’s maternal great-grandfather), Claro M. Recto and Jovito Salonga; and involves the dynamics of questioning the ruling party, as exemplified by Ramon Magsaysay, Cory Aquino and the anti-Marcos movement, and the Defensor-Santiago and Roco campaigns from 1992-2004. Institutionally, it’s represented by technocrats and their approach to governance. Reformism also has a tradition of personal sacrifice, as represented by Rizal or Benigno S. Aquino Jr.

The problem of course is when the “outs” become “ins”: once in power, clientelism can become corrosively attractive: that is, unless “Developmental Reformism” can be upheld, which then has the potential for a “long-lasting cleavage,” focusing on the trinity of combating corruption, development-oriented economic policies and improving economic efficiency.

Populism, on the other hand, rather than being inclusive, adopts an anti-elitist political narrative. Even when its proponents themselves come from the elite, they tend to be outsiders who emphasize popular sovereignty, and who use media-based appeals in contrast to a clientelist political network, relying on appeals through messages like “I am like you,” and “I will help you.”

In the Philippine context this is a more recent line, going back to Rogelio de la Rosa’s Senate election and 1961 (aborted) presidential bid; to Imelda Marcos’ “star power,” prestige projects and welfare programs; and exemplified by Estrada’s “long” populist decade from his senatorial election in 1987 to winning the presidency in 1998 and his proving, in 2010, a constituency numbering a quarter of the entire electorate. Estrada himself and Thaksin in Thailand demonstrated the limitations of populism, too.

But unlike Thailand, somehow in the Philippines, after the shocks of Edsa Dos and Tres, society seems to have pulled back from the brink. Thompson attributes this to the ability of Philippine elites to engage in introspection and Arroyo’s antagonizing the upper and middle classes that had initially supported her. Elections in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010 focused public energies on dividing on the question of the administration, offering competing points of view for endorsement or rejection by the electorate.

Add to this his belief that the Left has found itself unable to “institutionalize” the cleavage populism represents—including being unable to cope with what Thompson calls “Gramscian ‘bourgeois’ reformists” on one hand and “millenarian movie star populists” like Fernando Poe Jr. on the other.

The great dividing line, then, is efficiency versus equality, where reformists and their focus on developmental efficiency must contend with the populist demand for economic redistribution to the poor: and where over-emphasis on development, which increases inequality, must be balanced with an over-emphasis on equality-eroding efficiency. The need to balance both is the message of the 2010 elections: both have proven dedicated constituencies, with a shared commitment to resolving differences within the electoral framework and no longer by means of insurrections.

Thompson calls the 2010 polls the “most widely accepted election result since 1965,” in terms of the presidency. It could, he says, be the basis for long-term political stability, and signal an end to “military or people power coups,” and an era of accommodation by a small elite with the poor majority. (To be concluded)

Halili Sex Scandal, American Idol and New Eras

A writer over at FilipinoVoices wrote that there is too much attention being given by the people with this Katrina Halili-Hayden Kho scandal that other issues, like this proposed tax on books, are being glossed over. Manolo Quezon agreed and other people over the netsphere.

Probably he's right but I disagree on some points. First, this issue just shows you how pervasive the internet is becoming, from just a place for research, to a place for destroying or prepping up reputations. What this Halili sex scandal shows not just the non-sensical fascination of a people on sex and gossips, but rather a genuine concern for the effects of the New Media on a hapless victim (willing or not willing).

What public discourse just want us, observers and analysts to see, is the way they are being affected by this New channel of communication. That Filipinos care for other Filipinos. That it is not just ideas or books that we must be concerned about---we should be concerned with the personal lives of real people allegedly affected by this new medium.

What Filipinos are trying to figure out is whether to accept this change as calmly as possible, or repulse it with a New law called Cyber Law. By populating public discourse with such a scandal, we are being made to choose between embracing a New Medium, or crucify it by tagging it as an evil tool. This is the reality we are grappling about here. The despicable acts done by Dr. Hayden Kho are just superficial; yet, if we are to lift that layer off, we find that the core issue lies on the new media having an emotional connection with the people. And the numbers of people affected ranged to 22 million, not to fret nor frown upon.

It also shows how net issues have permeated the national psyche and has even dominated public discourse.

Having said that, there lies the challenge for us, writers in the netsphere. We know the medium. We know how now it has established a personal, emotional connection with our fellow Filipinos. It is now our tasks to see to it that Filipinos accept this medium as part of their lives and use it to empower the masses to change the way things are.

We are entering a New Era, where New Ideas are slowly eating old ones up and it is our responsibility to make people accept this New Era, like what Americans did in accepting Kris Allen as winner of American Idol season 8.

We must seize this New Era by the hair and take it to wherever the welfare of the People is.

Likewise, the way some gloss this scandal over, shows the communicative disjunct between those who profess to know what the masa feels with the masa. The challenge is to bridge that gap. From a stage where we are, which I described as gesellschaft, we must ascend this stage to a gemeinschaft, or what we term as a community.

As long as this gap remains wide, there is still no connection between intellectuals and the People whom they profess to serve.

Racism is the issue and eating Cheap Chow

Some bloggers (I think that includes Manolo Quezon) wishes or recommends other bloggers to stop commenting against Chip Tsao's latest tirade against Filipinos. If you're still not familiar with this, check out what this chap wrote online. He wrote a disparaging article about Filipinos, in the context of our recent Archiepelagic Baselines Bill, which includes a part of the Spratlys Group of islands. What he said shows his racial bias.

I do understand where Manolo is coming from. Since Chip Tsao is not a popular columnist writer to begin with, he does not deserve our attention. The more we write about him, the more popular he becomes. Chip Tsao is a known instigator, a "shock jock", as what my friend and fellow blogger Ding Gagelonia said. What he did is what is called "pathological trap". He wants the issue discussed.

I know where they're coming from, although, I would probably say that our selectiveness in our attacks comes from our inate cultural biases. It's quite surprising that we threw brimstones and all against Pangandaman etal (that includes the recent social climber who made a Duty Free employee kneel down before him) who are all Filipinos, yet we are wont to attack this Cheap Chow? Are we now saying that only Filipinos are fair game online, not racist pigs such as this one? Do we now have double standards in justice?

Let us not discuss about the bill; just discuss the racial slur this lowly and pitiful writer of cheap stuff did.

Sabbatical Leave from FilipinoVoices

Starting today, I resolved to put a decisive end to the pseudo-intellectualism being propounded upon by this man, Benigno. I read his recent entry over at FilipinoVoices and it's sheer kagaguhan. Illogical. Nonsensical. A product of a confused brain. Unhistorical. No basis in philosophy. Juvenile allulations.

I'll not put up with it anymore.

Hence, I will momentarily take a leave of absence in FilipinoVoices. Why, you may ask?

First, if I continue to be a part of FilipinoVoices, it's like I'm lending credence to his hyper inflated and nonsensical rhetorics. Like what Atty. Trixie Angeles said, if you put up with it, you're a part of this shit.

I'm full of these wild, crazy and totally juvenile self-advertisements and philological inventions coached in so-called "intellectual" discourses. Benigno is just using the site to promote his crazy ideas to the detriment of the entire FilipinoVoices collective. He's polluting the entire blogosphere with his egotistical conservatism. There's nothing new with what he's saying and the reason why people comment about what he's saying is simple really---its totally ridiculous really and the issue sooo simple that its unimaginable for an adult man not to comprehend what's soo obvious. I want to answer him but it would take a loong entry to write that,and since you realize that you need to explain certain things that you presume Benigno already know since its all too elementary and too highschoolish, you feel that it's useless talking to a man who invented his own world out of philological trash thrown by previous thinkers.

Honestly, a part of me wants to devote some time deconstructing all of these Benigno-isms but if I do just that, I'll just be feeding his ego and probably be an unwitting endorser of his fallacies. That's a tip for Mlq3--huwag mo nang patulan ang sarado nang isipan ng isang walang muwang. If you do, you'll be worse than him.

Like before, I will devote my time here at New Philippine Revolution and will again write insightful articles to expose the weaknesses and strengths of this regime and possibly contribute towards its eventual downfall.

Live another day

The House Committee on Justice chaired by Cong. Matias Defensor has just decided to discuss the merits of the Motion to Intervene by a group of citizen journalists led by Inquirer columnist and friend Manolo Quezon. The MOI is the first time that citizen journalists have shown that they are also a force to reckon with. They set up a blogsite of their own (it's called "Oust the Imp" at http://ousttheimp.wordpress.com/ and "Suya Ka na Ba?" at http://suyakana.blogspot.com/) just for the impeachment updates. This is a welcome development since it is time for these Congressmen to know that citizens of note are taking a great interest in the politics of this country.

I was invited to participate in this undertaking and I knowingly registered by support. Despite my present status, I believe that it is to the best interest of the entire Filipino blogosphere that I take part in this. Though I'm somewhat financially depressed at this point, I deemed it wise to sacrifice my personal interests and put the country's welfare first. I have a sick baby to take care of today, but I decided to make a definite stand and continue meeting people of different walks of life and make them aware that this is the time for action, not of retrospection.

I texted Inquirer.net reporter Lira Fernandez that we, in the blogsphere are watching very carefully the deliberations on this impeachment complaint. Though many say that it's a lost cause, nonetheless, I feel and told my media friends (Anthony Taberna of DZMM and Weng Salvacion of DZBB) that the Committee should do its ministerial duty to receive, review and pass the MOI and the main impeachment complaint and let Congressmen debate on the substance of the complaint. Yes, it is a number's game and obviously, Gloria enjoys the tyranny of numbers. Nonetheless, what I want is for people to hear the crimes committed by Gloria and her ilk and let the People decide what course of action to take in the future.

I remember my friend Brian Q telling me that it's very hard to fight these traditional and entrenched powers in our society. They have been ruling this small and impoverished state for so long and it's foolhardy for anyone with the purest intention of reform to presume that a flash revolt would just suddenly change all of these things. Our societal problems have deep roots and uprooting them would take a very long time to do. Having said that, awareness is one step towards the right direction and being a pragmatist, I told myself that this MOI and impeachment are two steps toward that direction.

Congress should be made aware that we will not tolerate them railroading this thing. And I mean, we will NOT allow that. Congress should recognize that hundreds if not thousands of people are watching their every move. There are so many groups that I know would burst asunder and would abandon all legal hopes should Malacanang and their factotums in Congress make a fool of Joey de Venecia's main impeachment complaint and our Motion for Intervention.

Let Congress allow Joey de Venecia, the complainants and the Intervenors to say their piece before the Filipino People. Let Congress give Joey, Manolo and all the rest of those who want Gloria be made accountable of these high crimes their moment to present their case before this august chamber. It would be better if the Committee even pass the buck of responsibility to the assembly since, Gloria enjoys a sizeable number of supporters anyway and like the palace and the Speaker Nograles says, the impeachment will not even reach second reading because it does'nt enjoy the numbers.

I was also texting Manolo and we both agree that the minority congressmen did their constituencies proud today (special mention goes to Gen San beauty Darlene Antonino-Custodio and Cagayan de Oro Congressman Guingona and BAYAN Muna Representative Teddy Casino). They fought for the inclusion of the MOI, which is uncanny since some of them disputed its inclusion at the onset due to party stands.

I have many classmates and students in Congress who would probably change their stand if I decide to approach them, among them, Henry Teves and Cong. Tupas. Laguna rep. Dan Fernandez is also a good prospect though he's an avowed administration ally and also Cong. Jon Villanueva. I have a handful of other Congressmen whom we can probably approach and explain why we intend to impeach Gloria.

I had a meeting with some friends who recommended that I do an entirely "out of the box" thing to highlight the struggle. Well, my friends, I would like to do just that but I don't want to be like that noble friend of mine who went to that airport tower and was shot and killed without achieving anything. Revolutions are not brash affairs.

Yes, this struggle is, I think, doomed to fail, if Nograles and Dureza are to be believed. Nonetheless, as one anecdote says, one door closes, another one opens. Impeachment is a very political act. It will not solve the very core problems of this country of ours. However, with its death rise hopes that other options is better and more potent that mere pen and paper.

There are other options other than impeachment. That's why I put a time counter in my site now. There's a New Kind of Revolution that would shake the very foundations of this decrepit society. And it will happen very, very soon. Check my clock.

Oust the Imp(ostor) and Suya Ka Na Ba?

I stumbled upon two very new and interesting sites. One of them "Oust the Imp" (http://ousttheimp.wordpress.com/) is very entertaining. It's political alright but the way the writer treats her material is great. The other one is http://suyakana.blogspot.com. Talks about why some bloggers filed that intervention to the main impeachment complaint of Joey de Venecia.

If you want to know the real score behind Manolo etal visit to Congress today, check out those two sites and you'll know why. Maybe most of them felt "suya"? They're not happy with the way things are going so they are feeling suya and want the "imp" (impostor and I think it's Gloria) out.

There are so many interesting things going on right now. Truly, I don't know where to start. Let me compose my thoughts for a while and digest what Marocharim is saying in his blog (http://www.marocharim. com/).

In the next few days, I will be writing serious stuff here. Bear with me. I need to expose the excesses of this regime. That is my mission as a blogger--to expose the Truth and let it hang dry.

Being personal for a change

Finally, I met Jester-in-Exile and some of the younger writers over at FilipinoVoices. I also met Manolo Quezon at the Philippine Blog Awards 2008. It's really nice meeting fellow bloggers and it was just my second time to do so.

I'm not supposed to reveal who I was but there's an itch to connect with those whom I consider as colleagues. And it is equally nice to know that Jester, Marochim and even their common friend, Maya, are all young people attending the University of the Philippines-Diliman. I told myself, there is still hope since my alma mater is still producing such fine young specimens of brilliance with a conscience.

Sometimes I think that it is time for me to rest my pen and pursue family interests. Because whenever I don my activist robe, I sacrifice my family. Truly, the time I'm spending with my family now, I consider the best of my life. For most of my young life, I spent pursuing causes which either nearly destroyed my professional career or put my life in extreme danger. The last four years are ones I consider stable since I'm blessed with jobs that provide me financial comfort. Yet, I'm still not that financially stable and it's just 3 years before I reach 40.

My contemporaries are enjoying the prime of their careers. Mike Defensor, a classmate of mine, has his own companies and enjoying the fruits of his collaboration with Gloria. Same as Miro Quimbo and even Bong Bongolan. My batchmates at the University are now either here, practicing law or abroad with their families. I heard that I can only count with my fingers the number of classmates I have here, still living a tough life in this patch of earth, called home.

The ones we've beaten during our active university life are now political heavyweights. Alan Peter Cayetano, who lost his campaign against Angelo Jimenez for the UP Student Council plum post, is now a Senator defending his political patron, Senate president Manny Villar. Those who still hold the torch for the masses, they are those who still continue the struggle.

Sometimes I think that those years studying Marx, Engels, etc. are just worthless years since I'm not even using them in my job. My job requires me to think like Guy Kawasaki or a Nora Ephron or do the things that Charlie Agatep or Dante Ang or Babes Romualdes did in their prime. If I think like Marx, i'll go wreck the establishment and probably de-construct it the way many people want it to be. But, would it be the best thing to do?

And sometimes, I blame myself for going back here. My years working in Singapore, I consider, truly the most memorable years of my life. Probably, I should not have left Singapore. It could have been great studying another Masters over at Nanyang Business School. Yet, I chose to raise a family instead of pursuing my intellectual interests.

I told Marochim that I tried to write lifestyle pieces. But I can't. My soul lives and breathes politics. But, irony of ironies, I'm not directly involved in politics, just doing polemics. And I'm doing it just here, in the blogosphere. My years doing political work is probably over. I'm too out of touch and too far of reach by those who are still working for a Truly Just and Humane Philippine society.

And I'm probably doing okey, since my peers nominated me for the Best Blog in the Social, Historical and Political Commentary division. I lost eventually to a guy whose passion is to write about birds. Well, I could have wrote something about the Philippine eagle and probably, won? Like what the Rebel Pixel said, it's not the award, it's the peer recognition.

I long for the day when I can (a) make money out of a business which I have a passion about (b) not report to a boss (c) directly work for the liberation of the country from tyranny and (d) raise my family while building a country. Someday, I'll do it. I'll plunge myself into the entrepreneurial world and make history.

Teodoro's dig at bloggers and salute to my fellow bloggers

Former UP College of Mass Communications Luis Teodoro puts it bluntly--bloggers should be responsible for whatever they write in their sites. He then encouraged mainstream journalists to write their own blogs, especially TV reporters. Teodoro said that mainstream journalists should write blogs to "set an example."

I respect Dean Teodoro. In fact, I'm one of those who already heeded his advice. I'm still an active member of the media industry. In fact, I devoted most of my 37 years of existence writing and working as a journalist. I started as a newswriter for DZBB GMA 7 and despite being a senior official of a top strategic marketing communications agency here, I still maintain a very strong relationship with my peers.

This leads us to one question--is there truth to Teodoro's assumptions that bloggers are irresponsible and therefore, not a good source of news and information?

Let me ask another question--what's the purpose of blogging in the first place?

Lastly, let me propound another question--is a blogsite a media outlet by itself or just a mere journal, a daily take on things?

On the first question, Teodoro's assumptions about some bloggers are valid. There are irresponsible bloggers out there who blog for the wrong reasons. For example, was it a good idea for Brian Gorrell to expose the dirty linen of Manila's alta sociedad just so he can collect his supposed money from a controversial socialite? Answer? No.

Using a blogsite to deride, cajole, humiliate, smear, or besmirch the reputation of someone is utterly irresponsible. If you read Gorrell's blog, it is full of "he said", "she said" ,things which most, if not all, are presumptions of certain facts, but not true facts. As readers, we can't verify all those he wrote there. Who's to say that all of those things really happened? Who edited Gorrell's blog? None.

Look at his entries. He wrote something about a person based on another person's "testimony". That's hearsay, plain and simple. There were no dates supplied nor exact location of where these incidents happened. We all know one place--Boracay. So, then? So, what?

Gorrell's blog shows you how irresponsible a blogger can be when allowed to write without an editor. Editors are gatekeepers. Why? Because one's take on things may not be reflective of reality.

Now, we go to the second question--why do we blog? What's the real reason for blogging?

Blogging started as a daily journal. By its very nature, blogging is a personal take on things. Its subjective, therefore, not fit to be a source for news. Blogs could be a very good source of opinions, of views, of expert advice. But, never a news site. Why? As I said, the very generis of blogging makes prevents it from being a good source of information.

Lastly, is a blogsite a news outlet? By the hits and pageviews it generates, yes, it could be said to be a media outlet. Since its beginnings, blogs serve one purpose--a journal which one maintains to express oneself to the world. It was never meant to be taken literally by bloggers as their license to be true journalists.

By the way, thanks to my fellow bloggers Nick, Mon Casiple, Cocoy, Janette Toral, Philippine Commentary and Manolo Quezon. They are just some of the most responsible and highly respected bloggers in our age. I appreciate your take on this blog. I never meant this site to be that way. I am humbled by your observations of this blog.

But, I need your help. Really. Give me advice on how to further improve my site. I am not really satisfied with my design. I want a simple, yet functional design. And I also would like to get advice on how to promote my site, especially to Filipinos abroad.

To my fellow bloggers, please give me your thoughts on how to improve my site. I really want to improve.

To my colleagues in the mainstream media, my site does not pretend to be a news site. No. This site aims to provoke debate, discussion based on my daily take on things. I write because I want to analyze what's happening especially the whys. I don't delve on the whats, the wheres, the whens. This is my political philology. If you agree on the things I wrote, thanks. If you don't, thanks din.

I am also very thankful that Nick provided a venue for political pundits like me to reach a wider audience. The Filipinovoices.com (www.filipinovoices.com) is the new Indios Bravos, the new La Solidaridad. I am very certain that all these things which we are doing will spillover beyond the blogsphere and eventually lead to real societal changes.

By the way, I have another blog, http://pinoyobserver.wordpress.com. Its getting bigger and higher hits by the day. Its not heavy stuff, totally different from what I write here. It has its usual political stuff (I really can't detach myself from political masturbations, sorry!), yet more on mundane things. If it reaches a thousand hits, I'll invest some money to make it as an electronic newspaper. Do help me make it happen. Thanks. Have a happy weekend.

Conditions are ripe for a coup; JDV stands to lose everything

Manolo may not believe that a coup is imminent but I say again, the conditions which justify a military takeover exist. Compared with 1989, 1990, 2004 and 2006, the present conditions are ripe for a government run by military leaders. It may not be apparent, given that "mutinous" soldiers, as what Manolo wrote in his blog: www.quezon.ph, submitted themselves to the legal processes, nonetheless, the "acts" being shown right now by the United Forces and the rebel detainees bear uncanny, pre-conceived actions.

Today, the officers being tried walked out of their hearing, in defiance with the way they are being treated in the court martial.(see Ellen Tordesillas blog). Legislators who filed an impeachment complaint against Arroyo also walked out of the justice committee hearings. These are, obviously, symbolic acts of defiance which is expected to lead into something more than merely walking out of "illegal" proceedings. It shows that people are manifesting overt acts of dissent. These pockets of resistance do not happen overnight. These are planned actions.

Do I believe that these actions are just "isolated", "autonomous" incidents? No. Do I believe that their actions are in someway connected and coordinated? Yes. The mere fact that these groups operated under the new name "United Forces", says much about the solid desire of the people behind them (especially those financing these actions) to really oust Arroyo.

I do agree with one observation of Manolo though that Arroyo might survive all these events and course smoothly to 2010. This may happen for three (3) reasons: First, groups fail to create conditions necessary for the growth of a critical mass. Doronila is right in saying that there is no critical mass at this point. Yet, we can't discount the possibility that, days or weeks right now, a critical mass might develop. At this point, acts of the United Forces fail to animate the emotions of even the middle classes. What do these things indicate? In a traditional purview, it may mean that people are tired of going and marching to EDSA. As I've said, surveys show that people are quite tired of the constitutional, EDSA way that they would welcome an extra-constitutional means of ousting Arroyo.

Second, rebels fail to court a sizeable number of "recruits" to stage an act of defiance among military ranks. Do we see a repeat of a "We Belong" at the PMA this homecoming? Maybe. Or maybe not. It depends whether there are still idealists within the Academy who have the "balls" so to speak to do what their predecessors did in 1985. Lastly, if traditional politicians decide not to join these actions. Its unfortunate that Senators Escudero and Cayetano continue keeping their silence despite what Philippine Star columnist Willy Esposo described our situation as "pre Civil War" times. Escudero and Cayetano are still "star-struck" so to speak; still overjoyed by their "victories". Or, to make a better description, still in rapture on their success in deceiving the people. Those who speak out now comes from unexpected politicians--Roxas and Pangilinan--who were previously accused of being pro-Arroyo.

Arroyo's fate now depends on how weak or how strong her enemies are at the moment. These groups need a new strategy to oust Arroyo. If they use the old EDSA formula, they may not succeed in what they want. Worst, they may lose momentum because their ranks remain weak.

If these groups procrastinate and fail to seize the moment, they may yet see a stronger GMA emerging from the seige unscathed. A stronger GMA might not entertain the idea of giving up power come 2010. This is a very strong possibility given the posturings being shown by Arroyo and the acts being done by her allies especially in Congress and in the business community.

If this happens, I say to the soldiers detained there in Tanay--kiss your liberties goodbye. I also say these to the groups opposing GMA--be prepared to lose a sizeable chunk of your constituencies and prepared to be dispensable, powerless, and irrelevant groups next year until 2010.

JDV is the loser

As I wrote in previous entries, the clear loser of all of these is JDV. JDV stands to lose everything not because of his son but because of his own wrongdoing. He remains a fool, compromising his strong position and continuing to support his enemy. Look at what he did today at the WBC convention. The video of ABS-CBN says it all--JDV sat miles apart GMA. Yet, when the media interviewed him, he told them the say trapo way of courtsying GMA. What a dumb move. GMA's allies are attacking him left and right, her operators slowly destroying him in Congress, yet, JDV remains unresponsive. JDV is certain to lose the speakership. And this is NOT a ruse. Events have shown that actions are being taken to isolate and weaken JDV. If JDV does not act now, he will surely lose the speakership to Fuentebella, a known Danding crony.

Winners

I say again, JDV is out. If reports are true that the reason why the tripartite groups of GMA, FVR and JDV agreed to keep their coalition intact was the promise of GMA to assist FVR and JDV to a transition from presidential to parliamentary, the two elders should be ready to lose their shirts. GMA does not have the will to court widespread revolt if she tries this. I say this again, GMA is not ready to rock the boat further by forcing the parliamentary proposition to the people. It would be foolhardy for the two Pangalatoks to trust GMA to do this. The obvious winners now, in 2010 and even in post-2010 will surely be Kampi, GMA and FG. Mark my word.