Pampanga Governor Panlilio goes back to priesthood and Pimentel's Pseudo Oppositionists

It's definitely official and you read it first here---Pampanga governor Ed Panlilio is going back to the priestly class by 2010. Yes, Panlilio who earlier intimated his desire to run for the presidency, is taking a back seat and for good reason--he and Isabela Governor Padaca's negotiations with the Liberal Party fell thru, leaving them in the lurch. Without a strong political machinery, Panlilio and Padaca's chances of clinching the presidential and vice presidential or even the senatorial spots are close to nil. The Liberal Party has Mar Roxas already and they're just looking for his running mate.

Likewise, a new political movement has announced the candidacy of Senator Richard Gordon. As i write this, there are five (5) confirmed candidates for the presidency in 2010:

1. Richard Gordon, being backed up by the Bagumbayan Political Party
2. Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party
3. Manny Villar of the Nacionalista Party
4. Either Chiz Escudero or Gilbert Teodoro of the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC)
5. Joseph "Erap" Estrada of the JEEP NI ERAP/Partido ng Masang Pilipino or PMP.

It seems that there are at least three clear groups claiming to be "opposition"---Roxas, Villar and Erap. Gordon's movement is not technically "opposition" but can be described as "neutral" (neither here nor there, I suppose) likened to that of Manoling Morato's party when he ran in 1998.

If Loren decides to throw her hat unto the ring, she might find herself forming another party since her political party (NPC) is full of presidential aspirants. She may have to settle for the vice presidency.

Possible mergers

Now, the possibility of the Lakas and Kampi merger is about " 80 percent complete", according to Lakas-CMD spokesman Zubiri. Mrs. Arroyo is currently engaged in talks with Presidential Political Adviser Gabriel Claudio.

A Lakas-CMD-Kampi merger would surely field in Vice President Noli de Castro as presidential bet and possibly, Teodoro. Now, if the opposition has a problem, the administration also has a very clear dilemma.

The field of candidates is far and wide, which includes Teodoro, Escudero, De Castro and Loren Legarda. A coalition would pit these four personalities against each other, leading to expected fractures and fissures in organizational unity.

If the administration would field a De Castro-Teodoro tandem, the NPC may have to contend with an Escudero-Legarda one, which, in all honesty, is quite formidable compared with a De Castro-Teodoro. If these tandems run against each other, they will split the administration vote.

Escudero-Legarda may have to position themselves as "opposition" to avoid such a scenario which in this case, would surely clash with the "United" opposition led by Erap. Erap would probably enter into a compromise with the administration, since, he will never be allowed to run for another term. This compromise would surely result to the "opposition" anointing a Manny Villar as their bet. Running as Villar's vice president would be either Jinggoy Estrada or JV Estrada, proxies of the former president. A Villar-Estrada tandem is a sure winner.

Possible tandems

For Lakas-KAMPI: De Castro-Teodoro
For NPC: Escudero-Legarda
For UNO: Villar-Estrada
For himself: Gordon and ?
For Liberal Party: Roxas and Padaca (?)

If these tandems or configurations push thru, then, it's a sure win for the Opposition, the one being led by Erap. Why?

Surely, De Castro-Teodoro will not be eating up the constituency of a Villar-Estrada since it is proven by recent elections that Estrada has his own strong mass constituency. The "Erap" magic is still there and the administration knows it. It would definitely be the mass following of Gordon who'll eat up the constituency of De Castro-Teodoro or can even be vice versa.

Gordon would surely eat up the administration areas, diluting support for De Castro-Teodoro.

The Roxas group would surely eat up the Escudero-Legarda constituency (or can also be the other way around) which is about 12-25% of the electorate. Remember that both groups appeal to the intelligentsia and some segments of the C-D class; yet not as wide as that of Erap.

So, the only one with the solid constituency and possibly the eventual winner in 2010 would definitely have to be the one being run and controlled by Erap.

Now, the question---is there any other force equal or similar with Erap's? The answer is none. Even if Ping Lacson tries his hand at challenging the Erap group, he will find it very difficult since the people favor Erap more than Lacson. There is no chance for Lacson to even eat up Erap's constituency since Lacson does not have a solid grassroots organization to speak of.

So, the clear winner in this case is Erap's group.